Mid-21st century anthropogenic changes in extreme precipitation and snowpack projections over Newfoundland

Climate extremes have large impacts on human societies and natural ecosystems. Projection of changes in climate extremes is very important for long-term planning. The current study investigated future changes in extreme precipitation events over Iran based on 18 CMIP5 models for the period 2006-2100. National gridded data from the Asfazari database were used to evaluate climate model simulation. Results indicate that models with higher spatial resolution (CCSM4 and MRI-CGCM3) perform better than those with lower resolution in capturing the spatial features of extreme precipitation events. Bias correction was applied to the models and the projected changes were assessed with the nonparametric modified Mann-Kendal trend test and Sen slope estimator at a 95% confidence level. Annual total precipitation (PRPCTOT) and rainy days (RD) were projected to decrease but the intensity and frequency of precipitation extremes were predicted to increase significantly. The projected decreases were larger in northwestern parts than other regions, with PRPCTOT decreasing by 18 to 22 mm decade-1 and RD by 4 to 4.8 d decade-1. Although there were discrepancies in rates between the models, extreme precipitation events over Iran were generally projected to increase. An increase in consecutive dry days (CDD) was predicted for most regions by the end of the 21st century under RCP8.5, with the largest increase of 5 to 6.8 d decade-1 found for northwestern Iran. In eastern areas of Iran, where precipitation occurs extremely rarely, the number of days with daily precipitation exceeding 10 mm (R10) or even 20 mm (R20) were projected to increase significantly. In conclusion, these changes suggest an increased risk of flash floods in Iran from increased extreme precipitation under the RCP8.5 emission scenario.

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Projection of Extreme Precipitation at the end of 21st Century over South Korea based on Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)

Atmosphere ◽

10.14191/atmos.2012.22.2.221 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 22 (2) ◽

pp. 221-231 ◽

Cited By ~ 19

Author(s):

Jang Hyun Sung ◽

Hyun-Suk Kang ◽

Suhee Park ◽

ChunHo Cho ◽

Deg Hyo Bae ◽

...

Keyword(s):

South Korea ◽

21St Century ◽

Extreme Precipitation ◽

Representative Concentration Pathways

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Large scale and synoptic features associated with extreme precipitation over South America: A review and case studies for the first decade of the 21st century

Atmospheric Research ◽

10.1016/j.atmosres.2012.06.012 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 118 ◽

pp. 27-40 ◽

Cited By ~ 56

Author(s):

Iracema Fonseca Albuquerque Cavalcanti

Keyword(s):

South America ◽

Case Studies ◽

21St Century ◽

Extreme Precipitation ◽

Large Scale ◽

Synoptic Features

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Ensemble Projection of Extreme Precipitation Over China Based on Three Dynamical Downscaling Simulations

Frontiers in Earth Science ◽

10.3389/feart.2021.755041 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 9 ◽

Author(s):

Guangtao Dong ◽

Ye Xie ◽

Ya Wang ◽

Dongli Fan ◽

Zhan Tian

Keyword(s):

21St Century ◽

Extreme Precipitation ◽

North China ◽

Climate Models ◽

Climate Model ◽

Dynamical Downscaling ◽

Global Climate Models ◽

Vapor Flux ◽

The Future ◽

Late 21St Century

Based on the outputs of the global climate models (GCMs) HadGEM2-ES, NorESM1-M and MPI-ESM-LR from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and the downscaling results with the regional climate model (RCM) REMO, the ability of the climate models to reproduce the extreme precipitation in China during the current period (1986–2005) is evaluated. Then, the future extreme precipitation in the mid (2036–2065) and the late 21st century (2066–2095) is projected under the RCP8.5 scenario. The results show that the RCM simulations have great improvements compared with the GCMs, and the ensemble mean of the RCM results (ensR) outperforms each single RCM simulation. The annual precipitation of the RCM simulations is more consistent with the observation than that of the GCMs, with the overestimation of the peak precipitation reduced, and the ensR further reduces the bias. For the extreme precipitation, the RCM simulations significantly decrease the underestimation of intensity in the GCMs. The RCM simulations and the ensR can greatly improve the simulations of Rx5day and CWD compared with the GCMs, decreasing the wet bias in North China and Northwest China. In the future, the consecutive dry days (CDD) will decrease in the northern arid regions, especially in North China and Northeast China. However, the southern regions will experience longer dry period. Both the amount and the intensity of precipitation will increase in various regions of China. The number of wet days will decrease in the south and increase in the north area. The significantly greater Rx5day and R95t indicate more intensive extreme precipitation in the future, and the intensity in the late 21st century will be stronger than that in the middle. Attribution analysis indicates that the extreme precipitation indices especially the R95t have significant positive temporal and spatial correlations with the water vapor flux.

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Early 21st century anthropogenic changes in extremely hot days as simulated by the C20C+ detection and attribution multi-model ensemble

Weather and Climate Extremes ◽

10.1016/j.wace.2018.03.001 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 20 ◽

pp. 1-8 ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

Michael Wehner ◽

Dáithí Stone ◽

Hideo Shiogama ◽

Piotr Wolski ◽

Andrew Ciavarella ◽

...

Keyword(s):

21St Century ◽

Model Ensemble ◽

Anthropogenic Changes ◽

Early 21St Century ◽

Detection And Attribution ◽

Hot Days

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Spatially downscaling GCMs outputs to project changes in extreme precipitation and temperature events on the Loess Plateau of China during the 21st Century

Global and Planetary Change ◽

10.1016/j.gloplacha.2011.11.008 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 82-83 ◽

pp. 65-73 ◽

Cited By ~ 54

Author(s):

Zhi Li ◽

Fen-Li Zheng ◽

Wen-Zhao Liu ◽

De-Juan Jiang

Keyword(s):

Loess Plateau ◽

21St Century ◽

Extreme Precipitation ◽

The Loess Plateau ◽

Precipitation And Temperature

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Projected Changes in Precipitation Extremes over Shaanxi Province, China, in the 21st Century

Advances in Meteorology ◽

10.1155/2020/1808404 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 2020 ◽

pp. 1-13

Author(s):

Ling Li ◽

Ziniu Xiao ◽

Shuxiang Luo ◽

Aili Yang

Keyword(s):

Global Warming ◽

21St Century ◽

Extreme Precipitation ◽

Climate Model ◽

Global Climate Model ◽

Precipitation Extremes ◽

Shaanxi Province ◽

Extreme Precipitation Events ◽

The Future ◽

Precipitation Events

Extreme precipitation events, which have intensified with global warming, will have a pernicious influence on society. It would be desirable to understand how they will evolve in the future as global warming becomes more serious with time. Thus, the primary objective of this study is to provide a comprehensive understanding of the changing characteristics of the precipitation extremes in the 21st century over Shaanxi Province, a climate-sensitive and environmentally fragile area located in the east of northwestern China, based on a consecutive simulation of the 21st century conducted by the regional climate model RegCM4 forced by the global climate model HadGEM2-ES at high resolution under middle emission scenario of the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5). Basic validation of the model performance was carried out, and six extreme precipitation indices (EPIs) were used to assess the intensity and frequency of the extreme precipitation events over Shaanxi Province. The results show that RegCM4 reproduces the observed characteristics of extreme precipitation events over Shaanxi Province well. Overall for the domain, the EPIs excluding consecutive dry days (CDD) have a growing tendency during 1980–2098 although they exhibit spatial variability over Shaanxi Province. Some areas in the arid northern Shaanxi may have more heavy rainfalls by the middle of the 21st century but less wet extreme events by the end of the 21st century. And the humid central and southern regions would suffer more precipitation-related natural hazards in the future.

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21st Century Projections of Extreme Precipitation Indicators for Cyprus

Atmosphere ◽

10.3390/atmos11040343 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 11 (4) ◽

pp. 343 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

George Zittis ◽

Adriana Bruggeman ◽

Corrado Camera

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Global Warming ◽

High Resolution ◽

21St Century ◽

Extreme Precipitation ◽

Eastern Mediterranean ◽

Eastern Mediterranean Region ◽

Daily Rainfall ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

The Impact

According to observational and model-based studies, the eastern Mediterranean region is one of the most prominent climate-change hotspots in the world. The combined effect of warming and drying is expected to augment the regional impacts of global warming. In addition to changes in mean climatic conditions, global warming is likely to induce changes in several aspects of extreme rainfall such as duration and magnitude. In this context, we explore the impact of climate change on precipitation with the use of several indicators. We focus on Cyprus, a water-stressed island located in the eastern Mediterranean Basin. Our results are derived from a new high-resolution simulation for the 21st century, which is driven by a “business-as-usual” scenario. In addition to a strong temperature increase (up to 4.1 °C), our analysis highlights that, on average for the island, most extreme precipitation indicators decrease, suggesting a transition to much drier conditions. The absolute daily rainfall maxima exhibit strong local variability, indicating the need for high resolution simulations to understand the potential impacts on future flooding.

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