scholarly journals Spatial synchrony in the start and end of the thermal growing season has different trends in the mid-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fang Wu ◽  
Yuan Jiang ◽  
Yan Wen ◽  
Shoudong Zhao ◽  
Hui Xu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Ecological Interactions ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Spatial Synchrony ◽  
Entire Study ◽  
Climate Gradients

Abstract Changes in spatial synchrony in the growing season have notable effects on species distribution, cross-trophic ecological interactions and ecosystem stability. These changes, driven by non-uniform climate change were observed on the regional scale. It is still unclear how spatial synchrony of the growing season on the climate gradient of the mid-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere and ecoregions, has changed over the past decades. Therefore, we calculated the start, end, and length of the thermal growing season (SOS, EOS, and LOS, respectively), which are indicators of the theoretical plant growth season, based on the daily-mean temperature of the Princeton Global Forcing dataset from 1948-2016. Spatial variations in the SOS, EOS and LOS along spatial climate gradients were analyzed using the multivariate-linear regression model. The changes of spatial synchrony in the SOS, EOS and LOS were analyzed using the segmented model. The results showed that in all ecoregions, spatially, areas with higher temperature tended to have an earlier SOS, later EOS and longer LOS. However, not all the areas with higher precipitation tended to have a later SOS, later EOS, and shorter LOS. The spatial synchrony in the SOS decreased across the entire study area, whereas the EOS showed the opposite trend. Among the seven ecoregions, spatial synchrony in the SOS in temperate broadleaf/mixed forests and temperate conifer forests changed the most noticeably, decreasing in both regions. Conversely, spatial synchrony in the EOS in the taiga, temperate grasslands/savannas/shrublands and tundra changed the most noticeably, increasing in each region. These may have important effects on the structure and function of ecosystems, especially on the changes in cross-trophic ecological interactions. Moreover, future climate change may change the spatial synchrony in the SOS and EOS further; however, the actual impact of such ongoing change is largely unknown.

scholarly journals Characterizing Growing Season Length of Subtropical Coniferous Forests with a Phenological Model

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 95
Author(s):  
Yuan Gong ◽  
Christina L. Staudhammer ◽  
Susanne Wiesner ◽  
Gregory Starr ◽  
Yinlong Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Soil Water ◽  
Prescribed Fire ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Longleaf Pine ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Soil Water Availability ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Phenological Model

Understanding plant phenological change is of great concern in the context of global climate change. Phenological models can aid in understanding and predicting growing season changes and can be parameterized with gross primary production (GPP) estimated using the eddy covariance (EC) technique. This study used nine years of EC-derived GPP data from three mature subtropical longleaf pine forests in the southeastern United States with differing soil water holding capacity in combination with site-specific micrometeorological data to parameterize a photosynthesis-based phenological model. We evaluated how weather conditions and prescribed fire led to variation in the ecosystem phenological processes. The results suggest that soil water availability had an effect on phenology, and greater soil water availability was associated with a longer growing season (LOS). We also observed that prescribed fire, a common forest management activity in the region, had a limited impact on phenological processes. Dormant season fire had no significant effect on phenological processes by site, but we observed differences in the start of the growing season (SOS) between fire and non-fire years. Fire delayed SOS by 10 d ± 5 d (SE), and this effect was greater with higher soil water availability, extending SOS by 18 d on average. Fire was also associated with increased sensitivity of spring phenology to radiation and air temperature. We found that interannual climate change and periodic weather anomalies (flood, short-term drought, and long-term drought), controlled annual ecosystem phenological processes more than prescribed fire. When water availability increased following short-term summer drought, the growing season was extended. With future climate change, subtropical areas of the Southeastern US are expected to experience more frequent short-term droughts, which could shorten the region’s growing season and lead to a reduction in the longleaf pine ecosystem’s carbon sequestration capacity.

scholarly journals Compensation between Resolved Wave Driving and Parameterized Orographic Gravity Wave Driving of the Brewer–Dobson Circulation and Its Response to Climate Change

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (14) ◽  
pp. 5601-5610 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Sigmond ◽  
Theodore G. Shepherd
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Gravity Wave ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Rossby Wave ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Wave Drag ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Remarkable Degree ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Following recent findings, the interaction between resolved (Rossby) wave drag and parameterized orographic gravity wave drag (OGWD) is investigated, in terms of their driving of the Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC), in a comprehensive climate model. To this end, the parameter that effectively determines the strength of OGWD in present-day and doubled CO2 simulations is varied. The authors focus on the Northern Hemisphere during winter when the largest response of the BDC to climate change is predicted to occur. It is found that increases in OGWD are to a remarkable degree compensated by a reduction in midlatitude resolved wave drag, thereby reducing the impact of changes in OGWD on the BDC. This compensation is also found for the response to climate change: changes in the OGWD contribution to the BDC response to climate change are compensated by opposite changes in the resolved wave drag contribution to the BDC response to climate change, thereby reducing the impact of changes in OGWD on the BDC response to climate change. By contrast, compensation does not occur at northern high latitudes, where resolved wave driving and the associated downwelling increase with increasing OGWD, both for the present-day climate and the response to climate change. These findings raise confidence in the credibility of climate model projections of the strengthened BDC.

scholarly journals Climate resilience in the United Kingdom wine production sector: CREWS-UK

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 ◽  
pp. 01011
Author(s):  
A. Nesbitt ◽  
S. Dorling ◽  
R. Jones
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Pinot Noir ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Trends ◽  
Wine Production ◽  
Production Sector ◽  
Climate Resilience ◽  
South Central ◽  
Grape Quality

As cool climate viticulture rapidly expands, the England and Wales wine sector is winning international acclaim, particularly for its sparkling wines, and is attracting significant investment. Supported by warming climate trends during the growing season, wine producers are establishing new vineyards planted predominantly with Pinot Noir and Chardonnay. Grape-friendly weather conditions in 2018 led to a record harvest and may be a sign of good things to come. Long term (100-years) Growing Season Average Temperatures (GSTs) in south-east and south-central England have noticeably increased with 6 of the top 10 warmest growing seasons (April–October), over the last 100 years, occurring since 2005. However, weather and growing season conditions fluctuate markedly from year to year, meaning that yields and grape quality continue to vary significantly. Weather extremes are anticipated to become more frequent under future climate change, further threatening the stability of production. Current uncertainty over future climatic conditions during the growing season and their potential effects on viticulture in the UK exposes both existing producers and potential investors to unquantified risks and opportunities. The CREWS-UK climate resilience research project is generating actionable information on how climate change may affect the wine production sector, to support better decision-making and investment.

Cenozoic climate gradients in Eurasia — a palaeo-perspective on future climate change?

2011 ◽  
Vol 304 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 351-358 ◽  
Author(s):  
Torsten Utescher ◽  
Angela A. Bruch ◽  
Arne Micheels ◽  
Volker Mosbrugger ◽  
Svetlana Popova
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Gradients

scholarly journals Desert mammal populations are limited by introduced predators rather than future climate change

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (11) ◽  
pp. 170384 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aaron C. Greenville ◽  
Glenda M. Wardle ◽  
Chris R. Dickman
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Structural Equation ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Biotic Interactions ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Introduced Predators ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Remote Camera ◽  
Rodent Prey

Climate change is predicted to place up to one in six species at risk of extinction in coming decades, but extinction probability is likely to be influenced further by biotic interactions such as predation. We use structural equation modelling to integrate results from remote camera trapping and long-term (17–22 years) regional-scale (8000 km 2 ) datasets on vegetation and small vertebrates (greater than 38 880 captures) to explore how biotic processes and two key abiotic drivers influence the structure of a diverse assemblage of desert biota in central Australia. We use our models to predict how changes in rainfall and wildfire are likely to influence the cover and productivity of the dominant vegetation and the impacts of predators on their primary rodent prey over a 100-year timeframe. Our results show that, while vegetation cover may decline due to climate change, the strongest negative effect on prey populations in this desert system is top-down suppression from introduced predators.

scholarly journals Simulating the spatiotemporal variations in aboveground biomass in Inner Mongolian grasslands under environmental changes

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 3059-3071
Author(s):  
Guocheng Wang ◽  
Zhongkui Luo ◽  
Yao Huang ◽  
Wenjuan Sun ◽  
Yurong Wei ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Aboveground Biomass ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Desert Steppe ◽  
Meadow Steppe ◽  
Grassland Type ◽  
Spatiotemporal Changes

Abstract. Grassland aboveground biomass (AGB) is a critical component of the global carbon cycle and reflects ecosystem productivity. Although it is widely acknowledged that dynamics of grassland biomass is significantly regulated by climate change, in situ evidence at meaningfully large spatiotemporal scales is limited. Here, we combine biomass measurements from six long-term (> 30 years) experiments and data in existing literatures to explore the spatiotemporal changes in AGB in Inner Mongolian temperate grasslands. We show that, on average, annual AGB over the past 4 decades is 2561, 1496 and 835 kg ha−1, respectively, in meadow steppe, typical steppe and desert steppe in Inner Mongolia. The spatiotemporal changes of AGB are regulated by interactions of climatic attributes, edaphic properties, grassland type and livestock. Using a machine-learning-based approach, we map annual AGB (from 1981 to 2100) across the Inner Mongolian grasslands at the spatial resolution of 1 km. We find that on the regional scale, meadow steppe has the highest annual AGB, followed by typical and desert steppe. Future climate change characterized mainly by warming could lead to a general decrease in grassland AGB. Under climate change, on average, compared with the historical AGB (i.e. average of 1981–2019), the AGB at the end of this century (i.e. average of 2080–2100) would decrease by 14 % under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 28 % under RCP8.5. If the carbon dioxide (CO2) enrichment effect on AGB is considered, however, the estimated decreases in future AGB can be reversed due to the growing atmospheric CO2 concentrations under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The projected changes in AGB show large spatial and temporal disparities across different grassland types and RCP scenarios. Our study demonstrates the accuracy of predictions in AGB using a modelling approach driven by several readily obtainable environmental variables and provides new data at a large scale and fine resolution extrapolated from field measurements.

Dendroclimatic response of Picea mariana and Pinus banksiana along a latitudinal gradient in the eastern Canadian boreal forest

1999 ◽  
Vol 29 (9) ◽  
pp. 1333-1346 ◽  
Author(s):  
Annika Hofgaard ◽  
Jacques Tardif ◽  
Yves Bergeron
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Picea Mariana ◽  
Pinus Banksiana ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Growth Patterns ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Growth Responses ◽  
Climatic Period ◽  
Tree Ring Data

To decipher spatial and temporal tree-growth responses to climate change we used tree-ring data from Picea mariana (Mill.) BSP and Pinus banksiana Lamb. along a latitudinal transect in western Quebec. The transect encompassed the distinct transition between mixed and coniferous forests at approximately 49°N. Correlation analyses and principal component analyses were used to identify common spatiotemporal growth patterns, and site- and species-specific patterns since 1825. A moist summer in the year t - 1 and an early start of the current growing season favored growth of both species. A prolongation of the growing season into fall was the most distinguishing factor between the species. A long and gradual climatic gradient shifted to a short gradient with a clear segregation between the southern and northern parts of the transect. This shift, around 1875, was abrupt and characterized by a turbulent climatic period. The observed pattern was likely related to a large-scale shift in the mean position of the Arctic Front that occurred at the end of the 1800s. No discrete climatic setting explained the present switch from mixedwoods to conifers at 49°N. Awareness of such nonequilibrial relations between climate and species distribution is essential when assessing vegetation responses to future climate change.

MAPPY : Multisectoral Analysis of climate and land use change impacts on Pollinators, Plant diversity and crops Yields

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maurine Antoine ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Plant Diversity ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Crop Damage ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Pollinator Decline ◽  
Entire Study

<p>The impacts of climate change on natural systems and biodiversity are known and already visible in some regions. With regard to agronomic systems, the effects of climate change have also been widely studied. However, some processes are still poorly understood, such as the links between pollinators and climate change or land use change. The feedbacks between different systems under climate change and land use change are still very little explored and require a multidisciplinary approach. It is within this framework that the MAPPY project fits.</p><p>The overall objective of the MAPPY project, funded by the AXIS program of JPI-Climate, is to study quantitatively feedback processes linking pollinators, plant diversity and crop yields in the context of climate and land use changes. A set of complementary models will be assembled, iteratively, to capture the dynamics of this complex system at regional level. Dynamic vegetation models and species distribution models will be used to assess the impacts of future climate change. Then, an agent-based model will be used to derive detailed land use and land cover change scenarios for the future at the scale of studied regions. The results of this combination of models will make it possible to assess the potential impacts on pollinator communities, which will make it possible to refine crop models. Finally, the socio-economic impacts of these forecasts will be assessed.</p><p>Several case study regions are defined in Europe. The entire study will be undertaken with local stakeholders who will identify the most relevant topics to be addressed. Indeed, stakeholders are asking more and more questions about climate change impact on crop yields, fruit crop damage, pollinator decline. Therefore, they will help us select the results that will be useful to them. Finally, a web platform will be developed with online tools allowing exploration of project results. The platform will be designed by involving stakeholders from the start of the project.</p>

scholarly journals Evolution of plasticity and adaptive responses to climate change along climate gradients

2017 ◽  
Vol 284 (1860) ◽  
pp. 20170386 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joel G. Kingsolver ◽  
Lauren B. Buckley
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Seasonal Variation ◽  
Phenotypic Selection ◽  
Elevational Gradient ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Adaptive Responses ◽  
Phenotypic Data ◽  
Climate Gradients ◽  
Adaptive Consequences ◽  
Change In Mean

The relative contributions of phenotypic plasticity and adaptive evolution to the responses of species to recent and future climate change are poorly understood. We combine recent (1960–2010) climate and phenotypic data with microclimate, heat balance, demographic and evolutionary models to address this issue for a montane butterfly, Colias eriphyle , along an elevational gradient. Our focal phenotype, wing solar absorptivity, responds plastically to developmental (pupal) temperatures and plays a central role in thermoregulatory adaptation in adults. Here, we show that both the phenotypic and adaptive consequences of plasticity vary with elevation. Seasonal changes in weather generate seasonal variation in phenotypic selection on mean and plasticity of absorptivity, especially at lower elevations. In response to climate change in the past 60 years, our models predict evolutionary declines in mean absorptivity (but little change in plasticity) at high elevations, and evolutionary increases in plasticity (but little change in mean) at low elevation. The importance of plasticity depends on the magnitude of seasonal variation in climate relative to interannual variation. Our results suggest that selection and evolution of both trait means and plasticity can contribute to adaptive response to climate change in this system. They also illustrate how plasticity can facilitate rather than retard adaptive evolutionary responses to directional climate change in seasonal environments.

scholarly journals Monitoring the Responses of Deciduous Forest Phenology to 2000–2018 Climatic Anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (14) ◽  
pp. 2806
Author(s):  
Kevin Bórnez ◽  
Aleixandre Verger ◽  
Adrià Descals ◽  
Josep Peñuelas
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Deciduous Forest ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
The United States ◽  
Deciduous Forests ◽  
Area Index ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Phenological Metrics ◽  
The Impact

Monitoring the phenological responses of deciduous forests to climate is important, due to the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events associated with climate change and global warming, which will in turn affect vegetation seasonality. We investigated the spatiotemporal patterns of the response of deciduous forests to climatic anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere, using satellite-derived phenological metrics from the Copernicus Global Land Service Leaf Area Index, and multisource climatic datasets for 2000–2018 at resolutions of 0.1°. Thereafter, we assessed the impact of extreme heatwaves and droughts on this deciduous forest phenology. We assumed that changes in the deciduous forest phenology in the Northern Hemisphere for the period 2000–2018 were monotonic, and that temperature and precipitation were the main climatic drivers. Analyses of partial correlations of phenological metrics with the timing of the start of the season (SoS), end of the season (EoS), and climatic variables indicated that changes in preseason temperature played a stronger role than precipitation in affecting the interannual variability of SoS anomalies: the higher the temperature, the earlier the SoS in most deciduous forests in the Northern Hemisphere (mean correlation coefficient of –0.31). Correlations between the SoS and temperature were significantly negative in 57% of the forests, and significantly positive in 15% of the forests (P < 0.05). Both temperature and precipitation contributed to the advance and delay of the EoS. A later EoS was significantly correlated with a positive Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at the regional scale (~30% of deciduous forests). The timings of the EoS and SoS shifted by > 20 d in response to heatwaves throughout most of Europe in 2003, and in the United States of America in 2012. This study contributes to improve our understanding of the phenological responses of deciduous forests in the Northern Hemisphere to climate change and extreme climate events.

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