scholarly journals Desert mammal populations are limited by introduced predators rather than future climate change

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (11) ◽  
pp. 170384 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aaron C. Greenville ◽  
Glenda M. Wardle ◽  
Chris R. Dickman
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Structural Equation ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Biotic Interactions ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Introduced Predators ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Remote Camera ◽  
Rodent Prey

Climate change is predicted to place up to one in six species at risk of extinction in coming decades, but extinction probability is likely to be influenced further by biotic interactions such as predation. We use structural equation modelling to integrate results from remote camera trapping and long-term (17–22 years) regional-scale (8000 km 2 ) datasets on vegetation and small vertebrates (greater than 38 880 captures) to explore how biotic processes and two key abiotic drivers influence the structure of a diverse assemblage of desert biota in central Australia. We use our models to predict how changes in rainfall and wildfire are likely to influence the cover and productivity of the dominant vegetation and the impacts of predators on their primary rodent prey over a 100-year timeframe. Our results show that, while vegetation cover may decline due to climate change, the strongest negative effect on prey populations in this desert system is top-down suppression from introduced predators.

Assessment of Drought due to Historic Climate Variability and Projected Future Climate Change in the Midwestern United States

2010 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 46-68 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vimal Mishra ◽  
Keith A. Cherkauer ◽  
Shraddhanand Shukla
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Vic Model

Abstract Understanding the occurrence and variability of drought events in historic and projected future climate is essential to managing natural resources and setting policy. The Midwest region is a key contributor in corn and soybean production, and the occurrence of droughts may affect both quantity and quality of these crops. Soil moisture observations play an essential role in understanding the severity and persistence of drought. Considering the scarcity of the long-term soil moisture datasets, soil moisture observations in Illinois have been one of the best datasets for studies of soil moisture. In the present study, the authors use the existing observational dataset and then reconstruct long-term historic time series (1916–2007) of soil moisture data using a land surface model to study the effects of historic climate variability and projected future climate change on regional-scale (Illinois and Indiana) drought. The objectives of this study are to (i) estimate changes and trends associated with climate variables in historic climate variability (1916–2007) and in projected future climate change (2009–99) and (ii) identify regional-scale droughts and associated severity, areal extent, and temporal extent under historic and projected future climate using reconstructed soil moisture data and gridded climatology for the period 1916–2007 using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. The authors reconstructed the soil moisture for a long-term (1916–2007) historic time series using the VIC model, which was calibrated for monthly streamflow and soil moisture at eight U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) gauge stations and Illinois Climate Network’s (ICN) soil moisture stations, respectively, and then it was evaluated for soil moisture, persistence of soil moisture, and soil temperature and heat fluxes. After calibration and evaluation, the VIC model was implemented for historic (1916–2007) and projected future climate (2009–99) periods across the study domain. The nonparametric Mann–Kendall test was used to estimate trends using the gridded climatology of precipitation and air temperature variables. Trends were also estimated for annual anomalies of soil moisture variables, snow water equivalent, and total runoff using a long-term time series of the historic period. Results indicate that precipitation, minimum air temperature, total column soil moisture, and runoff have experienced upward trends, whereas maximum air temperature, frozen soil moisture, and snow water equivalent experienced downward trends. Furthermore, the decreasing trends were significant for the frozen soil moisture in the study domain. The results demonstrate that retrospective drought periods and their severity were reconstructed using model-simulated data. Results also indicate that the study region is experiencing reduced extreme and exceptional droughts with lesser areal extent in recent decades.

Are there pre-Quaternary geological analogues for a future greenhouse warming?

2011 ◽  
Vol 369 (1938) ◽  
pp. 933-956 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alan M. Haywood ◽  
Andy Ridgwell ◽  
Daniel J. Lunt ◽  
Daniel J. Hill ◽  
Matthew J. Pound ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Greenhouse Gases ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Anthropogenic Emissions ◽  
Earth System ◽  
System Sensitivity ◽  
Earth History ◽  
Scientific Papers

Given the inherent uncertainties in predicting how climate and environments will respond to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, it would be beneficial to society if science could identify geological analogues to the human race’s current grand climate experiment . This has been a focus of the geological and palaeoclimate communities over the last 30 years, with many scientific papers claiming that intervals in Earth history can be used as an analogue for future climate change. Using a coupled ocean–atmosphere modelling approach, we test this assertion for the most probable pre-Quaternary candidates of the last 100 million years: the Mid- and Late Cretaceous, the Palaeocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), the Early Eocene, as well as warm intervals within the Miocene and Pliocene epochs. These intervals fail as true direct analogues since they either represent equilibrium climate states to a long-term CO 2 forcing—whereas anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases provide a progressive (transient) forcing on climate—or the sensitivity of the climate system itself to CO 2 was different. While no close geological analogue exists, past warm intervals in Earth history provide a unique opportunity to investigate processes that operated during warm (high CO 2 ) climate states. Palaeoclimate and environmental reconstruction/modelling are facilitating the assessment and calculation of the response of global temperatures to increasing CO 2 concentrations in the longer term (multiple centuries); this is now referred to as the Earth System Sensitivity, which is critical in identifying CO 2 thresholds in the atmosphere that must not be crossed to avoid dangerous levels of climate change in the long term. Palaeoclimatology also provides a unique and independent way to evaluate the qualities of climate and Earth system models used to predict future climate.

scholarly journals Past temperature reconstructions from deep ice cores: relevance for future climate change

2006 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 145-165 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Masson-Delmotte ◽  
G. Dreyfus ◽  
P. Braconnot ◽  
S. Johnsen ◽  
J. Jouzel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Temperature Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Ice Core ◽  
Ice Cores ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Interglacial Period ◽  
Temperature Reconstructions

Abstract. Ice cores provide unique archives of past climate and environmental changes based only on physical processes. Quantitative temperature reconstructions are essential for the comparison between ice core records and climate models. We give an overview of the methods that have been developed to reconstruct past local temperatures from deep ice cores and highlight several points that are relevant for future climate change. We first analyse the long term fluctuations of temperature as depicted in the long Antarctic record from EPICA Dome C. The long term imprint of obliquity changes in the EPICA Dome C record is highlighted and compared to simulations conducted with the ECBILT-CLIO intermediate complexity climate model. We discuss the comparison between the current interglacial period and the long interglacial corresponding to marine isotopic stage 11, ~400 kyr BP. Previous studies had focused on the role of precession and the thresholds required to induce glacial inceptions. We suggest that, due to the low eccentricity configuration of MIS 11 and the Holocene, the effect of precession on the incoming solar radiation is damped and that changes in obliquity must be taken into account. The EPICA Dome C alignment of terminations I and VI published in 2004 corresponds to a phasing of the obliquity signals. A conjunction of low obliquity and minimum northern hemisphere summer insolation is not found in the next tens of thousand years, supporting the idea of an unusually long interglacial ahead. As a second point relevant for future climate change, we discuss the magnitude and rate of change of past temperatures reconstructed from Greenland (NorthGRIP) and Antarctic (Dome C) ice cores. Past episodes of temperatures above the present-day values by up to 5°C are recorded at both locations during the penultimate interglacial period. The rate of polar warming simulated by coupled climate models forced by a CO2 increase of 1% per year is compared to ice-core-based temperature reconstructions. In Antarctica, the CO2-induced warming lies clearly beyond the natural rhythm of temperature fluctuations. In Greenland, the CO2-induced warming is as fast or faster than the most rapid temperature shifts of the last ice age. The magnitude of polar temperature change in response to a quadrupling of atmospheric CO2 is comparable to the magnitude of the polar temperature change from the Last Glacial Maximum to present-day. When forced by prescribed changes in ice sheet reconstructions and CO2 changes, climate models systematically underestimate the glacial-interglacial polar temperature change.

scholarly journals The Impact of Possible Decadal-Scale Cold Waves on Viticulture over Europe in a Context of Global Warming

Agronomy ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (7) ◽  
pp. 397 ◽  
Author(s):  
Giovanni Sgubin ◽  
Didier Swingedouw ◽  
Iñaki García de Cortázar-Atauri ◽  
Nathalie Ollat ◽  
Cornelis van Leeuwen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Developmental Stages ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Cold Waves ◽  
Decadal Scale ◽  
Ensemble Mean ◽  
The Impact

A comprehensive analysis of all the possible impacts of future climate change is crucial for strategic plans of adaptation for viticulture. Assessments of future climate are generally based on the ensemble mean of state-of-the-art climate model projections, which prefigures a gradual warming over Europe for the 21st century. However, a few models project single or multiple O(10) year temperature drops over the North Atlantic due to a collapsing subpolar gyre (SPG) oceanic convection. The occurrence of these decadal-scale “cold waves” may have strong repercussions over the continent, yet their actual impact is ruled out in a multi-model ensemble mean analysis. Here, we investigate these potential implications for viticulture over Europe by coupling dynamical downscaled EUR-CORDEX temperature projections for the representative concentration pathways (RCP)4.5 scenario from seven different climate models—including CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 exhibiting a SPG convection collapse—with three different phenological models simulating the main developmental stages of the grapevine. The 21st century temperature increase projected by all the models leads to an anticipation of all the developmental stages of the grapevine, shifting the optimal region for a given grapevine variety northward, and making climatic conditions suitable for high-quality wine production in some European regions that are currently not. However, in the CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 model, this long-term warming trend is suddenly interrupted by decadal-scale cold waves, abruptly pushing the suitability pattern back to conditions that are very similar to the present. These findings are crucial for winemakers in the evaluation of proper strategies to face climate change, and, overall, provide additional information for long-term plans of adaptation, which, so far, are mainly oriented towards the possibility of continuous warming conditions.

scholarly journals Resilience to temperature and pH changes in a future climate change scenario in six strains of the polar diatom <i>Fragilariopsis cylindrus</i>

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (14) ◽  
pp. 4235-4244 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Pančić ◽  
P. J. Hansen ◽  
A. Tammilehto ◽  
N. Lundholm
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Significant Interaction ◽  
Elevated Temperatures ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Ph Tolerance ◽  
Increased Temperature ◽  
Fragilariopsis Cylindrus ◽  
Negative Effect

Abstract. The effects of ocean acidification and increased temperature on physiology of six strains of the polar diatom Fragilariopsis cylindrus from Greenland were investigated. Experiments were performed under manipulated pH levels (8.0, 7.7, 7.4, and 7.1) and different temperatures (1, 5, and 8 °C) to simulate changes from present to plausible future levels. Each of the 12 scenarios was run for 7 days, and a significant interaction between temperature and pH on growth was detected. By combining increased temperature and acidification, the two factors counterbalanced each other, and therefore no effect on the growth rates was found. However, the growth rates increased with elevated temperatures by ~ 20–50 % depending on the strain. In addition, a general negative effect of increasing acidification on growth was observed. At pH 7.7 and 7.4, the growth response varied considerably among strains. However, a more uniform response was detected at pH 7.1 with most of the strains exhibiting reduced growth rates by 20–37 % compared to pH 8.0. It should be emphasized that a significant interaction between temperature and pH was found, meaning that the combination of the two parameters affected growth differently than when considering one at a time. Based on these results, we anticipate that the polar diatom F. cylindrus will be unaffected by changes in temperature and pH within the range expected by the end of the century. In each simulated scenario, the variation in growth rates among the strains was larger than the variation observed due to the whole range of changes in either pH or temperature. Climate change may therefore not affect the species as such, but may lead to changes in the population structure of the species, with the strains exhibiting high phenotypic plasticity, in terms of temperature and pH tolerance towards future conditions, dominating the population.

Why Is Climate Sensitivity So Unpredictable?

Science ◽  
2007 ◽  
Vol 318 (5850) ◽  
pp. 629-632 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerard H. Roe ◽  
Marcia B. Baker
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Analytic Form ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Large Temperature ◽  
Global Mean Temperature ◽  
Simple Analytic Form ◽  
Global Mean

Uncertainties in projections of future climate change have not lessened substantially in past decades. Both models and observations yield broad probability distributions for long-term increases in global mean temperature expected from the doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide, with small but finite probabilities of very large increases. We show that the shape of these probability distributions is an inevitable and general consequence of the nature of the climate system, and we derive a simple analytic form for the shape that fits recent published distributions very well. We show that the breadth of the distribution and, in particular, the probability of large temperature increases are relatively insensitive to decreases in uncertainties associated with the underlying climate processes.

scholarly journals What Framework Promotes Saliency of Climate Change Issues on Online Public Agenda: A Quantitative Study of Online Knowledge Community Quora

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 1619 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wen Shi ◽  
Changfeng Chen ◽  
Jie Xiong ◽  
Haohuan Fu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Science Communication ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Communication ◽  
Knowledge Community ◽  
The Public ◽  
Change Communication ◽  
Public Agenda

Though scientists have achieved consensus on the severity and urgency of climate change years ago, the public still considers this issue not that important, as the influence of climate change is widely thought to be geographically and temporally bounded. The discrepancy between scientific consensus and public’s misperception calls for more dedicated public communication strategies to get climate change issues back on the front line of the public agenda. Based on the large-scale data acquired from the online knowledge community Quora, we conduct a computational linguistic analysis followed by the regression model to address the climate change communication from the agenda setting perspective. To be specific, our results find that certain narrative strategies may make climate change issues more salient by engaging public into discussion or evoking their long-term interest. Though scientific communicators have long been blaming lack of scientific literacy for low saliency of climate change issues, cognitive framework is proved to be least effective in raising public concern. Affective framework is relatively more influential in motivating people to participate in climate change discussion: the stronger the affective intensity is, the more prominent the issue is, but the affective polarity is not important. Perceptual framework is most powerful in promoting public discussion and the only variable that can significantly motivate the public’s long-term desire to track issues, among which feeling plays the most critical role compared with seeing and hearing. This study extends existing science communication literature by shedding light on the role of previously ignored affective and perceptual frameworks in making issues salient and the conclusions may provide theoretical and practical implications for future climate change communication.

scholarly journals Water Quality Sustainability Evaluation under Uncertainty: A Multi-Scenario Analysis Based on Bayesian Networks

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (17) ◽  
pp. 4764 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Sperotto ◽  
Josè Luis Molina ◽  
Silvia Torresan ◽  
Andrea Critto ◽  
Manuel Pulido-Velazquez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Bayesian Networks ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Large Variability ◽  
Nutrient Loadings

With increasing evidence of climate change affecting the quality of water resources, there is the need to assess the potential impacts of future climate change scenarios on water systems to ensure their long-term sustainability. The study assesses the uncertainty in the hydrological responses of the Zero river basin (northern Italy) generated by the adoption of an ensemble of climate projections from 10 different combinations of a global climate model (GCM)–regional climate model (RCM) under two emission scenarios (representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5). Bayesian networks (BNs) are used to analyze the projected changes in nutrient loadings (NO3, NH4, PO4) in mid- (2041–2070) and long-term (2071–2100) periods with respect to the baseline (1983–2012). BN outputs show good confidence that, across considered scenarios and periods, nutrient loadings will increase, especially during autumn and winter seasons. Most models agree in projecting a high probability of an increase in nutrient loadings with respect to current conditions. In summer and spring, instead, the large variability between different GCM–RCM results makes it impossible to identify a univocal direction of change. Results suggest that adaptive water resource planning should be based on multi-model ensemble approaches as they are particularly useful for narrowing the spectrum of plausible impacts and uncertainties on water resources.

Economic losses from changing hydrology under future climate change, glacier shrinkage and growing water demand in the Tropical Andes

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabian Drenkhan ◽  
Randy Muñoz ◽  
Christian Huggel ◽  
Holger Frey ◽  
Fernando Valenzuela ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Water Volume ◽  
Tropical Andes ◽  
Glacier Shrinkage ◽  
Outburst Floods

&lt;p&gt;In the Tropical Andes, glaciers play a fundamental role for sustaining human livelihoods and ecosystems in headwater areas and further downstream. However, current rates of glacier shrinkage driven by climate change as well as increasing water demand levels bear a threat to long-term water supply. While a growing number of research has covered impacts of climate change and glacier shrinkage on the terrestrial water cycle and potential disaster risks, the associated potential economic losses have barely been assessed.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Here we present an integrated surface-groundwater assessment model for multiple water sectors under current conditions (1981-2016) and future scenarios (2050) of glacier shrinkage and growing water demand. As a case, the lumped model has been applied to the Santa river basin (including the Cordillera Blanca, Andes of Peru) within three subcatchments and considers effects from evapotranspiration, environmental flows and backflows of water use. Therefore, coupled greenhouse gas concentration (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) and socioeconomic scenarios are used, which provide a broad range of the magnitude of glacier and water volume changes and associated economic impacts. Finally, net water volume released on the long term due to deglaciation effects is quantified and by multiple metrics converted into potential economic costs and losses for the agriculture, household and hydropower sectors. Additionally, the potential damages from outburst floods from current and future lakes have been included. Results for the entire Santa river basin show that water availability would diminish by about 11-16% (57-78 10&lt;sup&gt;6&lt;/sup&gt; m&amp;#179;) in the dry season (June-August) and by some 7-10% (103-155 10&lt;sup&gt;6&lt;/sup&gt; m&amp;#179;) during the wet season (December-February) under selected glacier shrinkage scenarios until 2050. This is a consequence of diminishing glacier contribution to streamflow which until 2050 would reduce from about 45% to 33% for June-August and from 6% to 4% for December-February. A first rough estimate suggests associated economic losses for main water demand sectors (agriculture, hydropower, drinking water) on the order of about 300 10&lt;sup&gt;6&lt;/sup&gt; USD/year by 2050. Additionally, with ongoing glacier shrinkage and the formation of new lakes, about 45,000 inhabitants and 30,000 buildings are expected to be exposed to the risk of outburst floods in the 21&lt;sup&gt;st&lt;/sup&gt; century.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The pressure on water resources and interconnected socio-eonvironmental systems in the basin is already challenging and expected to further exacerbate within the next decades. Currently, water demand levels are considerably increasing driven by growing irrigated (export) agriculture, population and energy demand which is in a large part sustained by hydropower. A coupling of potential water scarcity driven by climate change with a lack of water governance and high human vulnerabilities, bears strong conflict potentials with negative feedbacks for socio-economic development in the Santa basin and beyond. In this context, our coupled hydro-glacial economic impact model provides important support for future decision-making and long-term water management planning. However, uncertainties are relatively high (uncertainty range to be estimated) due to a lack of (good) hydro-climatic and socio-economic information at appropriate spatiotemporal scales. The presented model framework is potentially transferable to other high mountain catchments in the Tropical Andean region and beyond.&lt;/p&gt;

A public-private collaboration initiative for innovative Earth Observation (EO) technologies and methodologies for investigating climate change impacts by means of an inter-disciplinary approach: the OT4CLIMA project

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicola Pergola ◽  
Carmine Serio ◽  
Francesco Ripullone ◽  
Francesco Marchese ◽  
Giuseppe Naviglio ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Technological Innovation ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Earth Observation ◽  
Ministry Of Education ◽  
Natural Processes ◽  
Company Survey ◽  
Industrial Partnership

&lt;p&gt;The OT4CLIMA project, funded by the Italian Ministry of Education, University and Research, within the PON 2014-2020 Industrial Research program, &amp;#8220;Aerospace&amp;#8221; thematic domain, aims at developing advanced Earth Observation (EO) technologies and methodologies for improving our capability to better understand the effects of Climate Change (CC) and our capability to mitigate them at the regional and sub-regional scale. Both medium-to-long term impacts (e.g. vegetation stress, drought) and extreme events with rapid dynamics (e.g. intense meteorological phenomena, fires) will be investigated, trying a twofold (i.e. interesting both &amp;#8220;products&amp;#8221; and &amp;#8220;processes&amp;#8221;) technological innovation: a) through the design and the implementation of advanced sensors to be mounted on multiplatform EO systems; b) through the development of advanced methodologies for EO data analysis, interpretation, integration and fusion.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Activities will focus on two of the major natural processes strictly related to Climate Change, namely the Carbon and Water Cycles by using an inter-disciplinary approach.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;As an example, the project will make it possible the measurements, with an unprecedented accuracy of atmospheric (e.g. OCS, carbon-sulphide) and surface (e.g. soil moisture) parameters that are crucial in determining the vegetation contribution to the CO2 balance, suggesting at the same time solutions based on the analysis and integration of satellite, airborne and unmanned data, in order to significantly improve the capability of local communities to face the short- and long-term CC-related effects.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;OT4CLIMA benefits from a strong scientific expertise (14 CNR institutes, ASI, INGV, CIRA, 3 Universities), considerable research infrastructures and a wide industrial partnership (including both big national players, i.e. E-Geos and IDS companies and well-established italian SMEs consortia, i.e. CREATEC, CORISTA and SIIT, and a spin-off company, Survey Lab) specifically focused on the technological innovation frontier.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;This contribution would summarize the project main objectives and show some activities so far carried out.&lt;/p&gt;

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