scholarly journals Using precipitation sensitivity to temperature to adjust projected global runoff

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuanfang Chai ◽  
Wouter R. Berghuijs ◽  
Kim Naudts ◽  
Thomas Albert Jacobus Janssen ◽  
Yao Yue ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Temperature Change ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Statistical Relationship ◽  
Uncertainty Range ◽  
Dry Conditions ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Historical Temperature ◽  
Improved Accuracy

Abstract Climate change affects the water cycle. Despite the improved accuracy of simulations of historical temperature, precipitation and runoff in the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), the uncertainty of the future sensitivity of global runoff to temperature remains large. Here, we identify a statistical relationship at the global scale between the sensitivity of precipitation to temperature change (1979 – 2014) and the sensitivity of runoff to temperature change (2015 – 2100). We use this relation to constrain future runoff sensitivity estimates. Our statistical relationship only slightly reduces the uncertainty range of future runoff sensitivities (order 10% reduction). However, more importantly, it raises the expected global runoff sensitivity to background global warming by 36-104% compared to estimates taken directly from the CMIP6 model ensemble. The constrained sensitivities also indicate a shift towards globally more wet conditions and less dry conditions.

scholarly journals Past and future changes of streamflow in Poyang Lake Basin, Southeastern China

2012 ◽  
Vol 16 (7) ◽  
pp. 2005-2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. L. Sun ◽  
H. S. Chen ◽  
W. M. Ju ◽  
J. Song ◽  
J. J. Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Poyang Lake ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Soil Water Storage ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Lake Basin ◽  
Poyang Lake Basin ◽  
The Future ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Meteorological Observations

Abstract. To understand the causes of the past water cycle variations and the influence of climate variability on the streamflow, lake storage, and flood potential, we analyze the changes in streamflow and the underlying drivers in four typical watersheds (Gaosha, Meigang, Saitang, and Xiashan) within the Poyang Lake Basin, based on the meteorological observations at 79 weather stations, and datasets of streamflow and river level at four hydrological stations for the period of 1961-2000. The contribution of different climate factors to the change in streamflow in each watershed is estimated quantitatively using the water balance equations. Results show that in each watershed, the annual streamflow exhibits an increasing trend from 1961–2000. The increases in streamflow by 4.80 m3 s−1 yr−1 and 1.29 m3 s−1 yr−1 at Meigang and Gaosha, respectively, are statistically significant at the 5% level. The increase in precipitation is the biggest contributor to the streamflow increment in Meigang (3.79 m3 s−1 yr−1), Gaosha (1.12 m3 s−1 yr−1), and Xiashan (1.34 m3 s−1 yr−1), while the decrease in evapotranspiration is the major factor controlling the streamflow increment in Saitang (0.19 m3 s−1 yr−1). In addition, radiation and wind contribute more than actual vapor pressure and mean temperature to the changes in evapotranspiration and streamflow for the four watersheds. For revealing the possible change of streamflow due to the future climate change, we also investigate the projected precipitation and evapotranspiration from of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) under three greenhouse gases emission scenarios (SRESA1B, SRESA2 and SRESB1) for the period of 2061–2100. When the future changes in the soil water storage changes are assumed ignorable, the streamflow shows an uptrend with the projected increases in both precipitation and evapotranspiration (except for the SRESB1 scenario in Xiashan watershed) relative to the observed mean during 1961–2000. Furthermore, the largest increase in the streamflow is found at Meigang (+4.31%) and Xiashan (+3.84%) under the SRESA1B scenario, while the increases will occur at Saitang (+6.87%) and Gaosha (+5.15%) under the SRESB1 scenario.

scholarly journals Changes in regional climate extremes as a function of global mean temperature: an interactive plotting framework

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Wartenburger ◽  
Martin Hirschi ◽  
Markus G. Donat ◽  
Peter Greve ◽  
Andy J. Pitman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Cycle ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Climate Extremes ◽  
Global Mean Temperature ◽  
Mean Temperature ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Regional Analyses ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract. This article extends a previous study (Seneviratne et al., 2016) to provide regional analyses of changes in climate extremes as a function of projected changes in global mean temperature. We introduce the DROUGHT-HEAT Regional Climate Atlas, an interactive tool to analyse and display a range of well-established climate extremes and water-cycle indices and their changes as a function of global warming. These projections are based on simulations from the 5th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). A selection of example results are presented here, but users can visualize specific indices of interest using the online tool. This implementation enables a direct assessment of regional climate changes associated with global temperature targets, such as the 2 degree and 1.5 degree limits agreed within the 2015 Paris Agreement.

scholarly journals Estimating Remaining Carbon Budgets Using Emulators of CMIP6 Models

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Rypdal ◽  
Niklas Boers ◽  
Hege-Beate Fredriksen ◽  
Kai-Uwe Eiselt ◽  
Andreas Johansen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Climate Sensitivity ◽  
Carbon Budget ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
High Sensitivity ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Transient Climate Response ◽  
Uncertainty Range ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Abstract A remaining carbon budget (RCB) estimates how much CO2 we can emit and still reach a specific temperature target. The RCB concept is attractive since it easily communicates to the public and policymakers, but RCBs are also subject to uncertainties. The expected warming levels for a given carbon budget has a wide uncertainty range, which we show here to increase with less ambitious targets, i.e., with higher CO2 emissions and temperatures. Leading causes of RCB uncertainty are the future non-CO2 emissions, Earth system feedbacks, and the spread in the climate sensitivity among climate models. The latter is investigated in this paper, using simple emulators of Earth System Models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) ensemble. It is shown that the transient climate response to cumulative emissions of carbon (TCRE) is approximately proportional to the effective equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). For temperature targets between 1.5-3.0 degrees C, the models exhibiting low ECS increase RCB by a factor two compared to those with high sensitivity, suggesting that observational constraints imposed on the ECS in the model ensemble also will reduce uncertainty in the RCB estimates.

scholarly journals Changes in regional climate extremes as a function of global mean temperature: an interactive plotting framework

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 3609-3634 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Wartenburger ◽  
Martin Hirschi ◽  
Markus G. Donat ◽  
Peter Greve ◽  
Andy J. Pitman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Cycle ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Climate Extremes ◽  
Global Mean Temperature ◽  
Mean Temperature ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Regional Analyses ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract. This article extends a previous study Seneviratne et al. (2016) to provide regional analyses of changes in climate extremes as a function of projected changes in global mean temperature. We introduce the DROUGHT-HEAT Regional Climate Atlas, an interactive tool to analyse and display a range of well-established climate extremes and water-cycle indices and their changes as a function of global warming. These projections are based on simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). A selection of example results are presented here, but users can visualize specific indices of interest using the online tool. This implementation enables a direct assessment of regional climate changes associated with global mean temperature targets, such as the 2 and 1.5° limits agreed within the 2015 Paris Agreement.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of Crop Water Need to 2071–95 Projected Temperature and Precipitation Changes in Jamaica

2014 ◽  
Vol 18 (12) ◽  
pp. 1-17 ◽  
Author(s):  
Scott Curtis ◽  
Douglas W. Gamble ◽  
Jeff Popke
Keyword(s):  
Temperature Change ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Precipitation Change ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Crop Water ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Crop Suitability ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
Precipitation Changes

Abstract This study uses empirical models to examine the potential impact of climate change, based on a range of 100-yr phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) projections, on crop water need in Jamaica. As expected, crop water need increases with rising temperature and decreasing precipitation, especially in May–July. Comparing the temperature and precipitation impacts on crop water need indicates that the 25th percentile of CMIP5 temperature change (moderate warming) yields a larger crop water deficit than the 75th percentile of CMIP5 precipitation change (wet winter and dry summer), but the 25th percentile of CMIP5 precipitation change (substantial drying) dominates the 75th percentile of CMIP5 temperature change (extreme warming). Over the annual cycle, the warming contributes to larger crop water deficits from November to April, while the drying has a greater influence from May to October. All experiments decrease crop suitability, with the largest impact from March to August.

scholarly journals ESM-SnowMIP: Assessing models and quantifying snow-related climate feedbacks

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerhard Krinner ◽  
Chris Derksen ◽  
Richard Essery ◽  
Mark Flanner ◽  
Stefan Hagemann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Climate Feedbacks ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Scale Modeling ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Modelling Effort ◽  
Earth System Models

Abstract. This paper describes ESM-SnowMIP, an international coordinated modelling effort to evaluate current snow schemes against local and global observations in a wide variety of settings, including snow schemes that are included in Earth System Models. The project aims at identifying crucial processes and snow characteristics that need to be improved in snow models in the context of local- and global-scale modeling. A further objective of ESM-SnowMIP is to better quantify snow-related feedbacks in the Earth system. ESM-SnowMIP is tightly linked to the Land Surface, Snow and Soil Moisture Model Intercomparison Project, which in turn is part of the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6).

scholarly journals ESM-SnowMIP: assessing snow models and quantifying snow-related climate feedbacks

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 5027-5049 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerhard Krinner ◽  
Chris Derksen ◽  
Richard Essery ◽  
Mark Flanner ◽  
Stefan Hagemann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Climate Feedbacks ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Scale Modelling ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Modelling Effort ◽  
Earth System Models

Abstract. This paper describes ESM-SnowMIP, an international coordinated modelling effort to evaluate current snow schemes, including snow schemes that are included in Earth system models, in a wide variety of settings against local and global observations. The project aims to identify crucial processes and characteristics that need to be improved in snow models in the context of local- and global-scale modelling. A further objective of ESM-SnowMIP is to better quantify snow-related feedbacks in the Earth system. Although it is not part of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), ESM-SnowMIP is tightly linked to the CMIP6-endorsed Land Surface, Snow and Soil Moisture Model Intercomparison (LS3MIP).

scholarly journals Robust Hadley Circulation changes and increasing global dryness due to CO2 warming from CMIP5 model projections

2015 ◽  
Vol 112 (12) ◽  
pp. 3630-3635 ◽  
Author(s):  
William K. M. Lau ◽  
Kyu-Myong Kim
Keyword(s):  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Signal To Noise Ratio ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Hadley Circulation ◽  
Cmip5 Model ◽  
Mass Outflow ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
High Clouds

In this paper, we investigate changes in the Hadley Circulation (HC) and their connections to increased global dryness (suppressed rainfall and reduced tropospheric relative humidity) under CO2 warming from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model projections. We find a strengthening of the HC manifested in a “deep-tropics squeeze” (DTS), i.e., a deepening and narrowing of the convective zone, enhanced ascent, increased high clouds, suppressed low clouds, and a rise of the level of maximum meridional mass outflow in the upper troposphere (200−100 hPa) of the deep tropics. The DTS induces atmospheric moisture divergence and reduces tropospheric relative humidity in the tropics and subtropics, in conjunction with a widening of the subsiding branches of the HC, resulting in increased frequency of dry events in preferred geographic locations worldwide. Among various water-cycle parameters examined, global dryness is found to have the highest signal-to-noise ratio. Our results provide a physical basis for inferring that greenhouse warming is likely to contribute to the observed prolonged droughts worldwide in recent decades.

scholarly journals Variability of surface climate in simulations of past and future

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kira Rehfeld ◽  
Raphaël Hébert ◽  
Juan M. Lora ◽  
Marcus Lofverstrom ◽  
Chris M. Brierley
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Temperature Change ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Temperature Variability ◽  
Global Mean Temperature ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Mean Temperature ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract. It is virtually certain that the mean surface temperature of the Earth will continue to increase under realistic emission scenarios. Yet comparatively little is known about future changes in climate variability. We explore changes in climate variability over the large range of climates simulated by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phases 5 and 6 (CMIP5/6) and the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (PMIP3). This consists of time slices of the Last Glacial Maximum, the Mid Holocene and idealized warming experiments (1 % CO2) and abrupt4×CO2), and encompasses climates with a range of 12 K of global mean temperature change. We examine climate variability from different perspectives: the local interannual change, coherent climate modes and through compositing extremes. The change in the interannual variability of precipitation is strongly dependent upon the local change in the total amount of precipitation. Meanwhile only over tropical land is the change in the interannual temperature variability positively correlated to temperature change, and then weakly. In general, temperature variability is inversely related to mean temperature change – with analysis of power spectra demonstrating that this holds from intra-seasonal to multi-decadal timescales. We systematically investigate changes in the standard deviation of modes of climate variability, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, with global mean temperature change. While several modes do show consistent relationships (most notably the Atlantic Zonal Mode), no generalisable pattern emerges. By compositing extreme precipitation events across the ensemble, we demonstrate that the atmospheric drivers dominating rainfall variability in Mediterranean climates persist throughout palaeoclimate and future simulations. The robust nature of the response of climate variability, between both cold and warm climates and across multiple timescales, suggests that observations and proxy reconstructions could provide a meaningful constraint on climate variability in future projections.

scholarly journals Estimating Remaining Carbon Budgets Using Emulators of CMIP6 Models

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Rypdal ◽  
Niklas Boers ◽  
Hege-Beate Fredriksen ◽  
Kai-Uwe Eiselt ◽  
Andreas Johansen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Sensitivity ◽  
Carbon Budget ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity ◽  
Uncertainty Range ◽  
The Public ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Specific Temperature

Abstract A remaining carbon budget (RCB) estimates how much CO2 we can emit and still reach a specific temperature target. The RCB concept is attractive since it easily communicates to the public and policymakers, but RCBs are also subject to uncertainties. The expected warming levels for a given carbon budget has a wide uncertainty range, which we show here to increase with less ambitious targets, i.e., with higher CO2 emissions and temperatures. We demonstrate that the leading cause of the revealed RCB uncertainty is the spread in the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) among climate models. In the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) ensemble, the models with the lower ECS predict an RCB that is twice as high as that of models with the higher ECS, for temperature targets between 1.5-3.0°C.

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