Modeling Chronic Diseases in Relation to Risk Factors

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pieter van Baal ◽  
Hendriek Boshuizen
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Simulation Model ◽  
Chronic Diseases ◽  
Simulation Modeling ◽  
Disease Modeling ◽  
Healthcare Spending ◽  
Communicable Diseases ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Non Communicable Diseases ◽  
Multiple Chronic Diseases

In most countries, non-communicable diseases have taken over infectious diseases as the most important causes of death. Many non-communicable diseases that were previously lethal diseases have become chronic, and this has changed the healthcare landscape in terms of treatment and prevention options. Currently, a large part of healthcare spending is targeted at curing and caring for the elderly, who have multiple chronic diseases. In this context prevention plays an important role, as there are many risk factors amenable to prevention policies that are related to multiple chronic diseases. This article discusses the use of simulation modeling to better understand the relations between chronic diseases and their risk factors with the aim to inform health policy. Simulation modeling sheds light on important policy questions related to population aging and priority setting. The focus is on the modeling of multiple chronic diseases in the general population and how to consistently model the relations between chronic diseases and their risk factors by combining various data sources. Methodological issues in chronic disease modeling and how these relate to the availability of data are discussed. Here, a distinction is made between (a) issues related to the construction of the epidemiological simulation model and (b) issues related to linking outcomes of the epidemiological simulation model to economic relevant outcomes such as quality of life, healthcare spending and labor market participation. Based on this distinction, several simulation models are discussed that link risk factors to multiple chronic diseases in order to explore how these issues are handled in practice. Recommendations for future research are provided.

An Education Driven Model for Non-Communicable Diseases Care

2016 ◽  
pp. 391-418 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fábio Pittoli ◽  
Henrique Damasceno Vianna ◽  
Jorge Luis Victória Barbosa
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Bayesian Networks ◽  
Chronic Diseases ◽  
Communicable Disease ◽  
Communicable Diseases ◽  
Treatment Recommendations ◽  
Non Communicable Diseases ◽  
Cause And Effect ◽  
Non Communicable Disease

Patients with chronic diseases should be made aware of their planned treatments as well as being kept informed of the progress of those treatments. The Chronic Prediction model was designed not only to educate patients and assist them with some chronic non-communicable disease, but to control the risk factors that affect their diseases. The model utilizes Bayesian networks to map three things: to identify the cause and effect relationships among existing risk factors; to provide treatment recommendations about these risk factors and; to aid caregivers in the treatment of the patients.

scholarly journals Non-Communicable Chronic Diseases Among Residents of a Remote Settlement in the Transbaikal Region of the Russian Federation

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Oleg Gaisenok
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Cardiovascular Diseases ◽  
Chronic Diseases ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Communicable Diseases ◽  
Transbaikal Region ◽  
Noncommunicable Diseases ◽  
Chronic Obstructive ◽  
Non Communicable Diseases ◽  
The Russian Federation

Introduction: Over a quarter of the population of the Russian Federation resides in rural communities. However, the data on chronic disease rates in these communities are limited, which makes screening for chronic diseases extremely important. The aim of this study was to measure the prevalence of chronic noncommunicable diseases among residents of a remote settlement in the Transbaikal region, Russian Federation.Methods: A sample of residents from the Transbaikal region settlement was screened in August 2017. The screening included a survey to determine the frequency of self-reported chronic diseases as well as sociodemographic and behavioral risk factors. Additionally, vascular stiffness was measured by volumetric sphygmography using the VaSera-1500 device. Descriptive statistics have been used for data analysis.Results: 126 residents were screened for this study. The prevalence of chronic non-communicable diseases and their risk factors were: hypertension (56.3%), gastrointestinal diseases (33.3%), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (13.5%), smoking (35.7%), obesity (19.1%), and diabetes mellitus (6.3%). Pathological vascular changes typical of atherosclerosis were found by volumetric sphygmography in 17.5% of cases, with 5.5% of those cases corresponding to significant forms of severe peripheral atherosclerosis (ABI<0.9). An analysis of mortality causes for this settlement for 2016-2017 found that cardiovascular diseases accounted for over 50% of the total number of deaths.Conclusion: This study showed a high prevalence of detectable chronic non-communicable diseases and their associated risk factors. Cardiovascular diseases were the main cause of mortality. Active prevention programs and screenings are required to reduce the burden of chronic diseases in this region.

scholarly journals The prevalence of risk factors associated with non-communicable diseases in Afghan refugees in southern Iran: a cross-sectional study

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Erfan Taherifard ◽  
Mohammad Javad Moradian ◽  
Ehsan Taherifard ◽  
Abdolrasool Hemmati ◽  
Behnaz Rastegarfar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Tobacco Smoking ◽  
Physical Inactivity ◽  
Vegetable Intake ◽  
Vegetable Consumption ◽  
Communicable Diseases ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Non Communicable Diseases ◽  
Afghan Refugees ◽  
Southern Iran

Abstract Background Refugees are highly vulnerable to many health-related risks. Monitoring non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is of overriding importance in these populations. This study aimed to investigate the prevalence of risk factors for NCDs amongst Afghan refugees in a refugee camp located in southern Iran. Methods This cross-sectional sturdy was conducted in 2018. Risk factors such as inadequate nutrition, physical inactivity, tobacco smoking, obesity and overweight, hypertension (HTN), elevated fasting plasma glucose (FPG), and dyslipidaemia were assessed. Data were gathered with a modified WHO STEPS procedure. Prevalence and age-standardized prevalence and their 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated. Results The estimated prevalence were 94% for inadequate fruit/vegetable consumption, 18% for physical inactivity, 9% for tobacco smoking, 3% for FPG, 20% for HTN, 51% for central obesity, 24% for overweight, 19% for obesity, and 69% for dyslipidaemia. Conclusions Except for inadequate fruit and vegetable intake and dyslipidaemia, the prevalence of other NCD risk factors was low among Afghan refugees in Iran. Raising awareness about healthy diet and its importance and the provision of more affordable fruit and vegetables are two effective measures toward improving the health of refugees in Iran.

scholarly journals Effects of Behavioral Risk Factors and Social-Environmental Factors on Non-Communicable Diseases in South Korea: A National Survey Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 612
Author(s):  
Nam Jeong Jeong ◽  
Eunil Park ◽  
Angel P. del Pobil
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Environmental Factors ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Communicable Diseases ◽  
Behavioral Risk Factors ◽  
Behavioral Risk ◽  
Non Communicable Diseases ◽  
Path Analyses ◽  
Social Environmental ◽  
Social Environmental Factors

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are one of the major health threats in the world. Thus, identifying the factors that influence NCDs is crucial to monitor and manage diseases. This study investigates the effects of social-environmental and behavioral risk factors on NCDs as well as the effects of social-environmental factors on behavioral risk factors using an integrated research model. This study used a dataset from the 2017 Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. After filtering incomplete responses, 5462 valid responses remained. Items including one’s social-environmental factors (household income, education level, and region), behavioral factors (alcohol use, tobacco use, and physical activity), and NCDs histories were used for analyses. To develop a comprehensive index of each factor that allows comparison between different concepts, the researchers assigned scores to indicators of the factors and calculated a ratio of the scores. A series of path analyses were conducted to determine the extent of relationships among NCDs and risk factors. The results showed that social-environmental factors have notable effects on stroke, myocardial infarction, angina, diabetes, and gastric, liver, colon, lung, and thyroid cancers. The results indicate that the effects of social-environmental and behavioral risk factors on NCDs vary across the different types of diseases. The effects of social-environmental factors and behavioral risk factors significantly affected NCDs. However, the effect of social-environmental factors on behavioral risk factors was not supported. Furthermore, social-environmental factors and behavioral risk factors affect NCDs in a similar way. However, the effects of behavioral risk factors were smaller than those of social-environmental factors. The current research suggests taking a comprehensive view of risk factors to further understand the antecedents of NCDs in South Korea.

scholarly journals Non-communicable diseases’ risk factors in Iran; a review of the present status and action plans

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sina Azadnajafabad ◽  
Esmaeil Mohammadi ◽  
Arya Aminorroaya ◽  
Nima Fattahi ◽  
Shahabeddin Rezaei ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Present Status ◽  
Communicable Diseases ◽  
Action Plans ◽  
Non Communicable Diseases

scholarly journals The Implementation of Childhood Obesity Related Policy Interventions in Malaysia—A Non Communicable Diseases Scorecard Project

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (11) ◽  
pp. 5950
Author(s):  
Wilfred Kok Hoe Mok ◽  
Noran Naqiah Hairi ◽  
Caryn Mei Hsien Chan ◽  
Feisul Idzwan Mustapha ◽  
Thamil Arasu Saminathan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Childhood Obesity ◽  
Communicable Diseases ◽  
Overweight And Obesity ◽  
Current Status ◽  
Non Communicable Diseases ◽  
Modified Delphi ◽  
Policy Interventions ◽  
Non Governmental Organizations ◽  
The Government

(1) Background: The prevalence of overweight and obesity among children has increased tremendously in the ASEAN region, including Malaysia. In Malaysia, the National Strategic Plan for Non-Communicable Diseases (2015–2025) provides the overall framework for its response to the non-communicable diseases (NCD) epidemic. Preventing childhood obesity is one of the key strategies for early intervention to prevent NCDs. The objective of this research is to examine the current status of policy interventions in addressing childhood obesity in Malaysia. (2) Methods: A panel of 22 stakeholders and experts from Malaysia, representing the government, industry, academia and non-governmental organizations, were sampled using a modified Delphi technique. Data were collected using a modified NCD scorecard under four domains (governance, risk factors, surveillance and research and health systems response). A heat map was used to measure the success of the four realms of the NCD scorecard. For each domain of the NCD scorecard, the final score was grouped in quintiles. (3) Results: A total of 22 participants responded, comprising of eight (36.4%) males and 14 (63.4%) females. All the domains measured in implementing policies related to childhood obesity were of low progress. Nine governance indicators were reported as 22.5% (low progress), four in the risk factors domain, and two in the surveillance. This shows that timely and accurate monitoring, participatory review and evaluation, and effective remedies are necessary for a country’s surveillance system. (4) Conclusion: Although Malaysia has published several key strategic documents relating to childhood obesity and implemented numerous policy interventions, we have identified several gaps that must be addressed to leverage the whole-of-government and whole-of-society approach in addressing childhood obesity in the country.

‘I think one of the ways they will help is to create awareness’: primary school teachers’ perceptions of cardiovascular diseases in Nigeria

2019 ◽  
Vol 27 (4) ◽  
pp. 24-31
Author(s):  
Kingsley Udeh ◽  
Candidus Nwakasi ◽  
John Fulton
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Cardiovascular Diseases ◽  
Primary School ◽  
Cardiovascular Health ◽  
Communicable Diseases ◽  
Health Concern ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
School Teachers ◽  
Primary School Teachers ◽  
Non Communicable Diseases

The increasing incidence and prevalence of non-communicable diseases is a major global health concern. Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) account for the highest percentage of deaths related to non-communicable diseases, and low and middle-income countries (LMIC) face the highest burden of CVDs. Understanding the knowledge and perception of CVDs and their risk factors in an LMIC such as Nigeria may play an important role in cardiovascular health promotion and improvement plans to reduce CVD-related deaths. A qualitative study was conducted using semi-structured interviews to gain an in-depth understanding of some personal and sociocultural views on CVDs and their risk factors. The participants were purposively sampled primary school teachers in South-Eastern Nigeria. Thematic analysis approach was used for data analysis. The study findings include knowledge of heart disease, perceived causes and risk factors of CVDs, spirituality, and the way forward. Overall, the knowledge of CVDs in the setting was found to be related to the psychosocial nature of the participants; the effectiveness of any intervention needs to take these factors into consideration. For example, health policies for CVD health education and awareness should be tailored to address some of the issues of belief, values, and religion, as mentioned in the study.

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