P3771Validation of risk scoring system predicting for progression of atrial fibrillation: the Fushimi AF Registry

2019 ◽  
Vol 40 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
H Ogawa ◽  
Y An ◽  
K Ishigami ◽  
Y Aono ◽  
S Ikeda ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
External Validation ◽  
Scoring Systems ◽  
Japanese Patients ◽  
Urban District ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Risk Scoring ◽  
Using Data

Abstract Background Atrial fibrillation (AF) increases the risks of thromboembolism and death. Progression from paroxysmal to sustained types (persistent or permanent) of AF is sometimes seen in clinical practice. We recently reported that progression of AF was associated with increased risk of clinical adverse events in Japanese AF patients. However, risk stratification schemes of predicting the progression of AF has not been fully established. Methods The Fushimi AF Registry, a community-based prospective survey, was designed to enroll all of the AF patients in Fushimi-ku, Kyoto, which is a typical urban district of Japan with a population of 283,000. Follow-up data were available for 4,454 patients. We investigated the risk factors of AF progression and validated the performance of various risk scoring systems predicting for progression of AF, such as APPLE, BASE-AF2, HATCH, and MB-LATER score, using data from 995 paroxysmal AF patients (mean age; 72.6±11.4 years, female; 42.2%, mean CHA2DS2-VASc score; 3.26±1.67) whose echocardiogram data were obtained at baseline. Results Of 995 AF patients, during the median follow-up of 1,477 days, progression from paroxysmal to sustained AF occurred in 160 patients (16.1%; 4.0 per 100 person-years). On a multivariate model, we indicated that history of AF ≥2 years (odds ratio [OR] 1.83; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.28–2.61), left atrial diameter ≥40 mm (OR 1.45; 95% CI 1.02–2.08), daily drinker (OR 1.56; 95% CI 1.24–2.81), and cardiomyopathy (OR 2.58; 95% CI 1.17–5.69) were significantly associated with higher incidence of AF progression. Our model had better predictive potential for AF progression (area under curve [AUC] 0.612; 95% CI 0.566–0.658) than the APPLE (AUC 0.553; 95% CI 0.508–0.598; p=0.06), BASE-AF2 (AUC 0.571; 95% CI 0.526–0.617; p=0.04), CHADS2 (AUC 0.508; 95% CI 0.462–0.554; p<0.01), CHA2DS2-VASc (AUC 0.501; 95% CI 0.453–0.548; p<0.01), HATCH (AUC 0.502; 95% CI 0.456–0.548; p<0.01), and MB-LATER (AUC 0.528; 95% CI 0.483–0.572; p<0.01) score. Conclusion We identified 4 risk factors which may be useful to predict for progression of AF in Japanese patients. External validation of our model in other cohorts is needed. Acknowledgement/Funding Boehringer, Bayer, Pfizer, Bristol-Myers, Astellas, AstraZeneca, Daiichi Sankyo, Novartis, MSD, Sanofi and Takeda. Japan Agency for Medical Research

scholarly journals Development of a Sex-Specific Risk Scoring System for Predicting Cognitive Normal to Mild Cognitive Impairment (SRSS-CNMCI)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wen Luo ◽  
Hao Wen ◽  
Shuqi Ge ◽  
Chunzhi Tang ◽  
Xiufeng Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Cognitive Impairment ◽  
Mild Cognitive Impairment ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Scoring System ◽  
External Validation ◽  
Scoring Systems ◽  
Cutoff Point ◽  
Risk Scoring ◽  
Risk Scoring System

Abstract Objective: We aim to develop a sex-specific risk scoring system for predicting cognitive normal (CN) to mild cognitive impairment (MCI), abbreviated SRSS-CNMCI, to provide a reliable tool for the prevention of MCI.Methods: Participants aged 61-90 years old with a baseline diagnosis of CN and an endpoint diagnosis of MCI were screened from the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) database with at least one follow-up. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to identify risk factors associated with conversion from CN to MCI and to build risk scoring systems for male and female groups. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was applied to determine the risk probability cutoff point corresponding to the optimal prediction effect. We ran an external validation of the discrimination and calibration based on the Harvard Aging Brain Study (HABS) database.Results: A total of 471 participants, including 240 women (51%) and 231 men (49%), aged 61 to 90 years, were included in the study cohort for subsequent primary analysis. The final multivariable models and the risk scoring systems for females and males included age, APOE ε4, Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) and Clinical Dementia Rating (CDR). The scoring systems for females and males revealed C statistics of 0.902 (95% CI 0.840-0.963) and 0.911 (95% CI 0.863-0.959), respectively, as measures of discrimination. The cutoff point of high and low risk was 33% in females, and more than 33% was considered high risk, while more than 9% was considered high risk for males. The external validation effect of the scoring systems was good: C statistic 0.950 for the females and C statistic 0.965 for the males. Conclusions: Our parsimonious model accurately predicts conversion from CN to MCI with four risk factors and can be used as a predictive tool for the prevention of MCI.

scholarly journals P1441 Predictors of systemic embolisms in a large cohort of left ventricular noncompaction patients

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
G Casas ◽  
G Oristrell ◽  
J Limeres ◽  
R Barriales ◽  
J R Gimeno ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
Oral Anticoagulation ◽  
Systolic Dysfunction ◽  
Left Ventricular ◽  
Left Ventricular Noncompaction ◽  
Severe Phenotype ◽  
Ventricular Noncompaction ◽  
Increased Risk

Abstract BACKGROUND Left ventricular noncompaction (LVNC) is associated with an increased risk of systemic embolisms (SE). However, incidence and risk factors are not well established. PURPOSE To evaluate the rate of SE in LVNC and describe risk factors. METHODS LNVC patients were included in a multicentric registry. Those with SE were considered for the analysis. RESULTS 514 patients with LVNC from 10 Spanish centres were recruited from 2000 to 2018. During a median follow-up of 4.2 years (IQR 1.9-7.1), 23 patients (4.5%) had a SE. Patients with SE (Table 1) were older at diagnosis, with no differences in gender and had similar cardiovascular risk factors. They were more frequently under oral anticoagulation (OAC). Besides, they had a more reduced LVEF, and more dilated LV and left atrium (LA). Late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) was more frequent, altogether suggesting a more severe phenotype. Patients with SE had non-significantly higher rates of hospitalization for heart failure (33% Vs 24%, p = 0.31) and atrial fibrillation (35% Vs 19%, p = 0.10). In multivariate analysis, only LA diameter was an independent predictor of SE (OR 1.04, p = 0.04). A LA diameter &gt; 45 mm had an independent 3 fold increased risk of SE (OR 3.04, p = 0.02) (Image 1). CONCLUSIONS LVNC carries a moderate mid-term risk of SE, which appears to be irrespective of atrial fibrillation and associated with age, LV dilatation and systolic dysfunction and mainly LA dilatation. This subgroup of patients should be considered for oral anticoagulation in primary prevention. Table 1 Systemic embolisms (n = 23) No systemic embolisms (n = 491) p Men, n (%) 15 (65) 289 (56) 0.52 Median age at diagnosis (IQR) - yr 60 (48-76) 48 (30-64) 0.02 Median follow up (IQR) - yr 5.9 (3.1-7.8) 4.2 (1.8-7.1) 0.18 OAC, n (%) 19 (83) 118 (24) 0.01 LVEF (SD) - % 37 (15) 48 (17) 0.01 LVEDD (SD) - mm 58 (11) 54 (10) 0.04 LA diameter (SD) - mm 46 (9) 39 (9) 0.01 Characteristics of patients with and without systemic embolisms Abstract P1441 Figure. Image 1

73Hemoglobin a1c levels and the risk of ischemic stroke and mortality in individuals with diabetes mellitus and atrial fibrillation

EP Europace ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
L Kezerle ◽  
M A Tsadok ◽  
A Akriv ◽  
B Feldman ◽  
M Leventer-Roberts ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Diabetes Mellitus ◽  
Risk Factors ◽  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Dependent Manner ◽  
Historical Cohort ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Dose Dependent ◽  
Hba1c Levels

Abstract Funding Acknowledgements Pfizer Israel Background Diabetes mellitus (DM) is associated with increased risk of embolic complications in non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). Whether the risk of stroke in AF patients remains the same among the wide spectrum of disease is yet to be determined. Aim Among individuals with AF and DM, to assess the incidence rates and risk of ischemic stroke and mortality by baseline HbA1C levels. Methods We conducted a prospective, historical cohort study using the Clalit Health Services (CHS) electronic medical records database. The study population included all CHS members ≥ 21 years old, with a first diagnosis of NVAF between January 1, 2010 to December 31, 2016 and a minimal follow-up period of 1 year. Among those patients identified as diabetics, we compared three groups of patients according to HBA1C levels at the time of AF diagnosis: &lt;7.0%, between 7-9% and ≥ 9%. Results A total of 44,451 cases were identified. The median age was 75 years (IQR 65-83) and 52.5% were women. During a mean follow up of 38 months, the incidence of stroke per 100 person-years in the three study groups was: 1.9 in patients with HBA1C &lt;7%, 2.37 in the intermediary group and 2.72 in those with HBA1C &gt;9%. In both univariate and multivariate analyses, higher levels of HBA1C were associated with an increased risk of stroke compared with a dose-dependent response when compared to individuals with HBA1C &lt;7% (Adjusted Hazard Ratio (AHR) = 1.32 {95% CI 1.12-1.55}for levels between 7-9% and AHR 1.64 {95% CI 1.28-2.09}) even after adjusting for CHA2DS2-VASC individual risk factors and use of oral anti-coagulants. The risk for overall mortality did not differ significantly between groups, with a slight elevation in the HBA1C &gt;9% group after adjusted analysis {aHR = 1.17 (1.07- 1.28)} Conclusion: In this observational cohort of patients with incident newly diagnosed nonvalvular atrial fibrillation, HBA1C levels were associated with an increased risk of stroke in a dose-dependent manner even after accounting for other recognized risk factors for stroke in this population. Abstract Figure. Kaplan-Meier for stroke-free survival

Abstract P004: Association Between The Liver Fibrosis-4 Score And Incident Atrial Fibrillation In A General Japanese Population Of Middle-aged To Older Adults

Circulation ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 143 (Suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yoshihiro Tanaka ◽  
Sarah Chuzi ◽  
Nagisa Morikawa ◽  
Hayato Tada ◽  
Kenshi Hayashi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
Liver Fibrosis ◽  
Cumulative Incidence ◽  
Japanese Population ◽  
General Japanese Population ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Longitudinal Association ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard Models

Background: There is increasing evidence that end-organ liver dysfunction is an important risk factor for atrial fibrillation (AF). Whether a non-invasive, laboratory-based marker of liver fibrosis, the fibrosis-4 score (FIB-4), is associated with incident AF is not known. Aim: To examine the longitudinal association of FIB-4 with incident AF in a general Japanese population with public health insurance. Methods: We used data from the National Japanese Health Check-Up performed in Kanazawa City, which included unemployed or retired participants aged ≥ 40 years. The baseline examination occurred in 2013 and participants were invited for annual routine examinations with follow-up data available through 2018. We excluded participants with pre-existing AF or missing data at baseline or follow-up. Incident AF was based on 12-lead electrocardiogram. We calculated the FIB-4 score (composed of age [years], aspartate and alanine aminotransferase, and platelet levels) for each participant and estimated the cumulative incidence of AF stratified by FIB-4 score quartiles. We also examined the association between quartiles of FIB-4 and incident AF using Cox proportional hazard models adjusted for risk factors with the lowest FIB-4 quartile as referent. Results: Of 37,892 participants, 37% were male and mean age was 72.4±9.6 years. Median (interquartile range [IQR]) of the FIB-4 score was 1.75 (IQR 1.38, 2.27). During a median (IQR) follow-up period of 5.0 years (4.0, 5.0), 707 cases of incident AF were identified. Cumulative incidence in the highest quartile of FIB-4 was 3.9% compared with 1.0% in the lowest quartile (log-rank p<0.001, Figure A ). Higher quartiles of the FIB-4 score had a dose-dependent increased risk of AF with adjusted HR of 1.70 (1.29, 2.23) in the highest quartile compared with the lowest quartile ( Figure B ). Conclusion: FIB-4 was independently associated with incident AF in a general, older Japanese population and may reflect risk of AF, in addition to traditional cardiovascular risk factors.

P5555Predictors of systemic embolisms in a large cohort of left ventricular noncompaction patients

2019 ◽  
Vol 40 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
G Casas ◽  
G Oristrell ◽  
J Limeres ◽  
A Sao-Aviles ◽  
R Barriales ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
Oral Anticoagulation ◽  
Systolic Dysfunction ◽  
Left Ventricular ◽  
Left Ventricular Noncompaction ◽  
Severe Phenotype ◽  
Ventricular Noncompaction ◽  
Increased Risk

Abstract Background Left ventricular noncompaction (LVNC) is associated with an increased risk of systemic embolisms (SE). However, incidence and risk factors are not well established. Purpose To evaluate the rate of SE in LVNC and describe risk factors. Methods LNVC patients were included in a multicentric registry. Those with SE were considered for the analysis. Results 514 patients with LVNC from 10 Spanish centres were recruited from 2000 to 2018. During a median follow-up of 4.2 years (IQR 1.9–7.1), 23 patients (4.5%) had a SE. Patients with SE (Table 1) were older at diagnosis, with no differences in gender and had similar cardiovascular risk factors. They were more frequently under oral anticoagulation (OAC). Besides, they had a more reduced LVEF, and more dilated LV and left atrium (LA). Late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) was more frequent, altogether suggesting a more severe phenotype. Patients with SE had non-significantly higher rates of hospitalization for heart failure (33% vs 24%, p=0.31) and atrial fibrillation (35% vs 19%, p=0.10). In multivariate analysis, only LA diameter was an independent predictor of SE (OR 1.04, p=0.04). A LA diameter>45 mm had an independent 3 fold increased risk of SE (OR 3.04, p=0.02) (Image 1). Table 1 Systemic embolisms (n=23) No systemic embolisms (n=491) p Men, n (%) 15 (65) 289 (56) 0.52 Median age at diagnosis (IQR), yr 60 (48–76) 48 (30–64) 0.02 Median follow up (IQR), yr 5.9 (3.1–7.8) 4.2 (1.8–7.1) 0.18 Hypertension, % 8 (33) 118 (24) 0.31 Diabetes mellitus, % 3 (14) 39 (8) 0.41 OAC, % 19 (83) 118 (24) 0.01 LVEF (SD), % 37 (15) 48 (17) 0.01 LVEDD (SD), mm 58 (11) 54 (10) 0.04 LVESD (SD), mm 45 (13) 38 (11) 0.01 LA diameter (SD), mm 46 (9) 39 (9) 0.01 LVEDV CMR (SD), mL 193 (75) 163 (70) 0.12 LVESV CMR (SD), mL 121 (64) 85 (64) 0.04 LGE, % 9 (40) 88 (18) 0.04 Conclusions LVNC carries a moderate mid-term risk of SE, which appears to be irrespective of atrial fibrillation and associated with age, LV dilatation and systolic dysfunction and mainly LA dilatation. This subgroup of patients should be considered for oral anticoagulation in primary prevention.

P3705Impact of subclinical atrial fibrillation detected by cardiac implantable electronic devices on the risk of future embolic stroke events from Far East

2019 ◽  
Vol 40 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
M Nakano ◽  
Y Kondo ◽  
M Nakano ◽  
T Kajiyama ◽  
T Hayashi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
Left Atrium ◽  
Electronic Devices ◽  
Japanese Patients ◽  
Embolic Stroke ◽  
Cardiac Implantable Electronic Devices ◽  
The Mean ◽  
New Onset

Abstract Background Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common type of arrhythmia. AF-related stroke tends to be more severe, and the mortality rate is higher compared with stroke without AF. The definition of AF in patients with cardiac implantable electronic devices (CIEDs) is not clear and the appropriate treatment guideline for patients with AF episode has not established yet. Recent CIEDs have led to an improvement in the early detection of AF episodes, especially in patients who are asymptomatic. Previous studies showed that atrial high-rate episodes (AHREs) detected by CIEDs are associated with embolic stroke events. However, little is known about the incidence of AF and stroke events in Japanese patients with CIEDs who have no prior AF and take no anticoagulant. Objective The purpose of this study was to identify the incidence of embolic stroke events in patients with and without AF events detected by CIEDs and examine the risk factors of embolic stroke events. Methods We retrospectively analyzed the database of our hospital. Every 6 months, AF events were checked by CIEDs. AF30 was defined as AF episodes lasting for ≥30 seconds detected by CIEDs. We examined the characteristics and incidence of embolic stroke events and investigated the relationship between AF30 and the incidence of embolic stroke events. Results We enrolled 348 consecutive patients who had no prior AF and took no anticoagulant in this study (follow-up period, 65±58 months; age, 70±16 years; male sex; 64%; defibrillator, 55%). The mean CHADS2 score and CHA2DS2-VASc score were 1.8±1.1 points and 2.8±1.5 points, respectively. The mean HAS-BLED score was 1.7±1.2 points. During the follow-up, 23 of 348 patients (6.6%) had embolic stroke events. Thirteen patients (4.1%/year) and 10 patients (0.63%/year) had embolic stroke events with and without AF30, respectively. The comparison of characteristics among patients with and without embolic stroke events was shown in Table. In multivariate logistic regression analysis, independent predictors for embolic stroke events were new-onset episode of AF30 (odd ratio [OR] 5.3, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.2–13, P=0.0003) and an enlarged left atrium ≥40mm (OR 3.1, 95% CI 1.2–7.9, P=0.016). Conclusions Embolic stroke events were common in Japanese patients with CIEDs. AF30 and enlarged left atrium were risk factors of embolic stroke events in this population. Therefore, when physicians detect new-onset AF in patients with CIEDs, they should consider a comprehensive assessment of the risk and benefit of prescribing an anticoagulant.

P468Pre-diabetes a new risk factor for stroke in non-valvular atrial fibrillation

EP Europace ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
L Kezerle ◽  
M A Tsadok ◽  
A Akriv ◽  
B Feldman ◽  
M Leventer-Roberts ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
Risk Factor ◽  
Study Groups ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Historical Cohort ◽  
Kaplan Meier ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Individual Risk Factors

Abstract Funding Acknowledgements Pfizer Israel Background Diabetes mellitus is a well-established independent risk factor for embolic complications in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). The association between prediabetes and risk of ischemic stroke, however, has not been studied separately in patients with NVAF. Purpose To evaluate whether pre-diabetes is associated with increased risk of stroke and death in patients with NVAF Methods We conducted a prospective, historical cohort study using the Clalit Health Services (CHS) electronic medical records database. The study population included all CHS members ≥ 21 years old, with a first diagnosis of NVAF between January 1 2010 to December 31 2016 and a minimal follow-up period of 1 year. We compared three groups of patients:  prediabetes, those with established DM, and normoglycemic individuals Results A total of 44,451 cases were identified. The median age was 75 years and 52.5% were women. During a mean follow up of 38 months, the incidence of stroke per 100 person-years in the three study groups was: 1.14 in non-diabetics, 1.40 in pre-diabetics and 2.15 in diabetics. In both univariate and multivariate analyses, pre-diabetes was associated with an increased risk of stroke compared with non-diabetics (Adjusted Hazard Ratio (HR) = 1.19 {95% CI 1.01-1.4}) even after adjusting for CHA2DS2-VASC individual risk factors and use of oral anti-coagulants while diabetes conferred an even higher risk (vs non-diabetics { HR = 1.56, 95% CI ;1.37 - 1.79}). The risk for mortality was higher for diabetics (HR =1.47,  95% CI ;1.41, 1.54}) but not for pre-diabetics (HR = 0.98 ,CI 95%; 0.92 - 1.03). Conclusion: In this observational cohort of patients with incident newly diagnosed patients with NVAF, pre-diabetes was associated with an increased risk of stroke even after accounting for other recognized risk factors. Abstract Figure. Kaplan-Meier for stroke-free survival

scholarly journals Altered Acylcarnitine Metabolism Is Associated With an Increased Risk of Atrial Fibrillation

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (21) ◽  
Author(s):  
Einar Smith ◽  
Celine Fernandez ◽  
Olle Melander ◽  
Filip Ottosson
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Beta Carotene ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard Models ◽  
Incident Cases ◽  
First Time

Background Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common cardiac arrhythmia, but the pathogenesis is not completely understood. The application of metabolomics could help in discovering new metabolic pathways involved in the development of the disease. Methods and Results We measured 112 baseline fasting metabolites of 3770 participants in the Malmö Diet and Cancer Study; these participants were free of prevalent AF. Incident cases of AF were ascertained through previously validated registers. The associations between baseline levels of metabolites and incident AF were investigated using Cox proportional hazard models. During 23.1 years of follow‐up, 650 cases of AF were identified (incidence rate: 8.6 per 1000 person‐years). In Cox regression models adjusted for AF risk factors, 7 medium‐ and long‐chain acylcarnitines were associated with higher risk of incident AF (hazard ratio [HR] ranging from 1.09; 95% CI, 1.00–1.18 to 1.14, 95% CI, 1.05–1.24 per 1 SD increment of acylcarnitines). Furthermore, caffeine and acisoga were also associated with an increased risk (HR, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.06–1.28 and 1.08; 95% CI, 1.00–1.18, respectively), while beta carotene was associated with a lower risk (HR, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.82–0.99). Conclusions For the first time, we show associations between altered acylcarnitine metabolism and incident AF independent of traditional AF risk factors in a general population. These findings highlight metabolic alterations that precede AF diagnosis by many years and could provide insight into the pathogenesis of AF. Future studies are needed to replicate our finding in an external cohort as well as to test whether the relationship between acylcarnitines and AF is causal.

Risk scoring by CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc as predictors for long-term outcomes after surgical ablation for atrial fibrillation

2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
D Lauritzen ◽  
H.J Vodstrup ◽  
T.D Christensen ◽  
M Onat ◽  
R Christensen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
Cardiac Surgery ◽  
Isolation Procedure ◽  
Survival Times ◽  
Long Term Outcomes ◽  
Surgical Ablation ◽  
Follow Up Study ◽  
Risk Scoring

Abstract Background Following catheter ablation for atrial fibrillation (AF), CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc have utility in predicting long-term outcomes. However, it is currently unknown if the same holds for patients undergoing surgical ablation. Purpose To determine whether CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc predict long-term outcomes after surgical ablation in concomitance with other cardiac surgery. Methods In this prospective, follow-up study, we included patients who underwent biatrial ablation - or pulmonary vein isolation procedure concomitantly with other cardiac surgery between 2004 and 2018. CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores were assessed prior to surgery and categorized in groups as 0–1, 2–4 or ≥5. Outcomes were death, AF, and AF-related death. Follow-up was ended in April 2019. Results A total of 587 patients with a mean age of 68.7±0.4 years were included. Both CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores were predictors of survival p=0.005 and p&lt;0.001, respectively (Figure). For CHADS2, mean survival times were 5.9±3.7 years for scores 0–1, 5.0±3.0 years for scores 2–4 and 4.3±2.6 years for scores ≥5. For CHA2DS2-VASc mean survival times were 7.3±4.0 years for scores 0–1, 5.6±2.9 years for scores 2–4 and 4.8±2.1 years for scores ≥5. The incidence of death was 20.1% for CHADS2 0–1, 24.8% for CHADS2 2–4, and 35.3% for CHADS2 ≥5, p=0.186. The incidence of AF was 50.2% for CHADS2 0–1, 47.9% for CHADS2 2–4, and 76.5% for CHADS2 ≥5, p=0.073. The incidence of AF related death was 13.0% for CHADS2 0–1, 16.8% for CHADS2 2–4, and 35.3% for CHADS2 ≥5, p=0.031. The incidence of death was 16.8% for CHA2DS2-VASc 0–1, 26.2% for CHA2DS2-VASc 2–4, and 45.0% for CHA2DS2-VASc ≥5, p=0.001. The incidence of AF was 49.6% for CHA2DS2-VASc 0–1, 52.5% for CHA2DS2-VASc 2–4, and 72.5% for CHA2DS2-VASc ≥5, p=0.035. The incidence of AF related death was 12.2% for CHA2DS2-VASc 0–1, 16.0% for CHA2DS2-VASc 2–4, and 42.5% for CHA2DS2-VASc ≥5, p&lt;0.001. Conclusion Both CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores predict long-term outcomes after surgical ablation for AF. However, CHA2DS2-VASc was superior in predicting death, AF, and AF-related death. Survival curves Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: None

scholarly journals Acute Dental Periapical Abscess and New-Onset Atrial Fibrillation: A Nationwide, Population-Based Cohort Study

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (13) ◽  
pp. 2927
Author(s):  
Amaar Obaid Hassan ◽  
Gregory Y. H. Lip ◽  
Arnaud Bisson ◽  
Julien Herbert ◽  
Alexandre Bodin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
Cohort Study ◽  
Multivariable Analysis ◽  
National Database ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Periapical Abscess ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Onset Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
New Onset

There are limited data on the relationship of acute dental infections with hospitalisation and new-onset atrial fibrillation (AF). This study aimed to assess the relationship between acute periapical abscess and incident AF. This was a retrospective cohort study from a French national database of patients hospitalized in 2013 (3.4 million patients) with at least five years of follow up. In total, 3,056,291 adults (55.1% female) required hospital admission in French hospitals in 2013 while not having a history of AF. Of 4693 patients classified as having dental periapical abscess, 435 (9.27%) developed AF, compared to 326,241 (10.69%) without dental periapical abscess that developed AF over a mean follow-up of 4.8 ± 1.7 years. Multivariable analysis indicated that dental periapical abscess acted as an independent predictor for new onset AF (p < 0.01). The CHA2DS2VASc score in patients with acute dental periapical abscess had moderate predictive value for development of AF, with Area Under the Curve (AUC) 0.73 (95% CI, 0.71–0.76). An increased risk of new onset AF was identified for individuals hospitalized with dental periapical abscess. Careful follow up of patients with severe, acute dental periapical infections is needed for incident AF, as well as investigations of possible mechanisms linking these conditions.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document