The Limited Scope of the Democratic Peace: What We Are Missing

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew P Owsiak ◽  
John A Vasquez
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Finding ◽  
The United States ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Democratic Peace ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Dyadic Relationships ◽  
Empirical Coverage ◽  
The Empirical Analysis ◽  
Historical Periods ◽  
Limited Scope

Abstract The democratic peace program arguably constitutes one of the most successful empirical research programs in the discipline. Its main empirical finding motivated extensive theorizing (e.g., challengers, as well as distinct theoretical enterprises), sparked further debate about how to conceptualize and operationalize democracy, and shifted the foreign policy discourse, particularly in the United States. Lost in these successes, however, is a critical unanswered question: how much interstate peace can the democratic peace potentially explain? We explore these limits (i.e., scope, or empirical coverage) in this study. We first identify the peaceful dyadic relationships—namely those that never go to war across long historical periods. We next classify these dyads as democratic (i.e., both members are democracies) or nondemocratic. The empirical analysis then examines this democracy–peace relationship across three time periods, three distinct samples (which address potential false positives), two definitions of “peace,” and two thresholds for democracy. Regardless of how we approach the data, only 4–26 percent of all peaceful dyads qualify as “democratic.” Because we control for the obvious trivial explanation (insufficient capabilities due to distance), some other (set of) factor(s) must account for the majority of interstate peace. We close with a discussion about where future research might search for these factors, as well as the larger policy implications of the study.

Is the New Immigration Less Skilled Than the Old?

2019 ◽  
pp. 67-90
Author(s):  
George J. Borjas ◽  
Barry R. Chiswick
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
World War Ii ◽  
Administrative Data ◽  
The United States ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
World War ◽  
Ceteris Paribus ◽  
Asian Immigration ◽  
High Level ◽  
The Empirical Analysis

This chapter analyzes trends in the skills of immigrants to the United States in the post-World War II period. Changes in the supply, demand, and institutional factors determining immigration are analyzed for their implications for immigrant skills. The empirical analysis uses INS administrative data, the 1970 and 1980 Censuses, and the 1976 Survey of Income and Education. Relatively more immigrants are now coming from countries whose nationals earn less in the United States. The schooling level of immigrants has been fairly stable; the declining level for the growing Hispanic immigration is offset by the high level of the increasing Asian immigration. Immigrant quality, ceteris paribus, is analyzed. Policy implications are discussed.

“It Takes a Lot of Planning”: Sexual Minority Young Adult Perceptions of Gay and Lesbian Parenthood

2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (10) ◽  
pp. 1785-1809
Author(s):  
Nicholas Park ◽  
Rachel M. Schmitz ◽  
Kathleen Slauson-Blevins
Keyword(s):  
Young Adults ◽  
Sexual Minority ◽  
The United States ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Gay And Lesbian ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Social Barriers ◽  
Lesbian Parenting ◽  
And Bisexual ◽  
Group Interviews

Lesbian and gay parents are becoming more prevalent, visible, and accepted in the United States. Despite these shifts, legal and social obstacles continue to shape pathways to parenthood. For many lesbians and gay men, access to parenthood is difficult, uncertain, and varies geographically. Using focus group interviews, this study explores how 36 Midwestern gay, lesbian, and bisexual young adults without children perceive gay and lesbian parenting and their own parenthood prospects. Themes included perceptions of legal and social barriers to parenthood, assumptions of the mounting economic obstacles and constraints surrounding parenthood, and concerns with navigating legal relatedness when establishing their families. This research provides insight into how emerging adulthood is experienced by sexual minority young adults in a shifting legal and social climate full of uncertainty regarding LGBTQ rights and parenthood. Policy implications and future research are discussed surrounding sexually diverse people’s accessibility in pursuing parenthood.

scholarly journals Political Business Cycles and Their Policy Implications: An Extension of Alesina`s Model

2009 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 127-147
Author(s):  
Chung Ji Eun ◽  
Jung Kwang Ho
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Empirical Work ◽  
The United States ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Policy Outcomes ◽  
Money Growth ◽  
Political Business Cycles ◽  
Stock Market Performance

This paper reviews and empirically tests the most recent theoretical and empirical work on political business cycles in the United States. It focuses on the rational partisan theory of Alesina et al. (1997) and extends their data from 1994 to 2005. We tested three different political business cycle modles-the opportunistic, traditional partisan, and rational partisan models-to observe whether they remain valid. Overall, our results show that the rational partisan model outperforms both the opportunistic model and the traditional partisan modls in explaining the variations of monetary and fiscal policy outcomes, which are consistent with Alesina et al.'s work (1997). More specifically, we found a significant partisan effect on money growth, a weak partisan effect on the federal funds rate, and no partisan effect on other interest rates including the discount rate, three-month Treasury bill, and ten-year Treasury note. Our finding on the partisan effects of money growth resemble those of Alesina (1988), but our results on interest rates differ. In addition, we found a strong partisan effect on the budget deficit (higher during republican administrations) and no partisan effect on the level of government transfers. Both findings are consistent with Alesina's work (1988). Future research is required to identify how partisan effects vary across both developed and developing countries and how stock market performance and the role of the central bank during presidential elections are related.

scholarly journals Evaluating The Economic Impact Of Marriage Versus Cohabitation In Same-Sex Couples Age 50+

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. 876-876
Author(s):  
Setarreh Massihzadegan ◽  
Jan Mutchler
Keyword(s):  
Older Adults ◽  
Marital Status ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Well Being ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Security ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Same Sex ◽  
Same Sex Couples

Abstract Utilizing the first set of 5-year American Community Survey data available since the United States’ legalization of same-sex marriage in mid-2015, this poster investigates the economic security of older adults (age 50+) in same-sex marriages compared to those in same-sex partnerships who are cohabiting but not married. Viewed through the lens of cumulative disadvantage theory, we consider differences in the economic circumstances of same-sex couples by gender and by geographic location. Findings point to gender differences in economic well-being, but relatively few differences based on marital status. For example, rates of low income are somewhat higher among female couples than among their male counterparts, but marital status differences are not substantial. These findings suggest that the benefits of being married that have long been recognized among older adults may not extend equally to same-sex couples. Findings are discussed with respect to the emerging salience of marriage within the LGBTQ older community, future research opportunities, and important policy implications.

The Tyranny of Distance: Assessing and Explaining the Apparent Decline in U.S. Military Performance

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
M Patrick Hulme ◽  
Erik Gartzke
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Military Effectiveness ◽  
Intrastate Conflict ◽  
American Military ◽  
Military Performance ◽  
Us Military ◽  
The Cost

Abstract There is a growing sense that US military effectiveness has been on the wane in recent years. Is this the case? If so, what are the reasons for the decay in American combat performance? We first examine the available systematic evidence for American military decline, showing that the United States has indeed experienced a drop in the quality of outcomes of its military contests. Observers have offered a number of explanations for declining American military success, most predominantly an increase in intrastate conflict after the Second World War. After showing that a decline in performance is observed even after fully excluding intrastate conflict, we propose an alternative explanation: the increasing distance from home at which the United States has been fighting. Distance is tyrannical: it saps military strength and increases the cost of contests, even as it reduces US expertise and motivations to prevail. We then show that the distance from home at which the United States fights is the best predictor of the outcome of the conflict. We conclude by noting some avenues for future research and policy implications as the world returns to great power competition.

Virtual Life Sentences: An Exploratory Study

2018 ◽  
Vol 98 (3) ◽  
pp. 294-313 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jessica S. Henry ◽  
Christopher Salvatore ◽  
Bai-Eyse Pugh
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Initial Data ◽  
Exploratory Study ◽  
The United States ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Future Research ◽  
State Prisons ◽  
Natural Life ◽  
Life Sentences

Virtual life sentences are sentences with a term of years that exceed an individual’s natural life expectancy. This exploratory study is one of the first to collect data that establish the existence, prevalence, and scope of virtual life sentences in state prisons in the United States. Initial data reveal that more than 31,000 people in 26 states are serving virtual life sentences for violent and nonviolent offenses, and suggest racial disparities in the distribution of these sentences. This study also presents potential policy implications and suggestions for future research.

A Dynamic Model of Rational Addiction with Stockpiling and Learning: An Empirical Examination of E-cigarettes

2020 ◽  
Vol 66 (12) ◽  
pp. 5886-5905
Author(s):  
Jialie Chen ◽  
Vithala R. Rao
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Structural Model ◽  
The United States ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Future Research ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Empirical Examination ◽  
Cigarette Taxes ◽  
Smoking Behaviors ◽  
The Impact

Current regulations on e-cigarettes are minimal compared with cigarette regulations, despite their growing popularity globally. Advocates of e-cigarettes claim that they aid in ceasing smoking habits. However, leaving e-cigarettes unregulated has raised growing health concerns. Policymakers in several countries, including the United States and those in Europe, are considering and experimenting with policy interventions. To evaluate current policies and implement potential regulations on e-cigarettes, policymakers must understand the impact of e-cigarettes on consumers’ smoking behaviors. To address this issue, we construct a dynamic structural model that incorporates consumers’ purchases and consumption behaviors of both cigarettes and e-cigarettes. The results from our proposed model indicate that consumption of e-cigarettes promotes, rather than counteracts, smoking. This is because the less costly e-cigarettes incentivize consumers to build their addiction to nicotine, which, in return, increases future consumption of both cigarettes and e-cigarettes. This finding calls for regulations on e-cigarettes. We then conduct counterfactual analyses to evaluate two policy regulations on e-cigarettes: (1) e-cigarette taxes and (2) price regulation. Because both of these policies have been discussed extensively in both the United States and many countries in the European Union, results of our policy simulations address these policy debates. We find that both are effective in reducing overall consumption of cigarettes and e-cigarettes. We also examine the role of consumers’ heterogeneity on the simulation results as well as the policy implications. We conclude with future research directions, such as inclusion of social influence and cross-selling marketing. This paper was accepted by Matthew Shum, marketing.

Evaluation of Safe Streets Treatment Option to Reduce Recidivism Among Repeat Drunk Driving Offenders

2018 ◽  
Vol 30 (9) ◽  
pp. 1368-1384
Author(s):  
Tina L. Freiburger ◽  
Alyssa M. Sheeran
Keyword(s):  
Comparison Group ◽  
Treatment Options ◽  
Drunk Driving ◽  
The United States ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Drinking And Driving ◽  
Repeat Offenders ◽  
Driving Behaviors ◽  
To Receive

Drinking and driving poses a significant issue in the United States. Repeat offenders are especially problematic as they are responsible for a high proportion of all drunk driving offenses and are more likely to continue in their drinking and driving behaviors. This study examines the effectiveness of the Safe Streets Treatment Options Program (SSTOP) in Outagamie County, Wisconsin, to reduce recidivism among repeat offenders. The results indicate that participants of SSTOP had significantly fewer convictions, fewer subsequent sentences to incarceration, were sentenced to fewer days incarcerated in jail for subsequent offenses, and were less likely to receive another Operating While Intoxicated (OWI) conviction than those in the comparison group. Policy implications and directions for future research also are discussed.

scholarly journals Reactive nitrogen in atmospheric emission inventories – a review

2009 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 12413-12464 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Reis ◽  
R. W. Pinder ◽  
M. Zhang ◽  
G. Lijie ◽  
M. A. Sutton
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Dispersion ◽  
Ambient Air ◽  
The United States ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Anthropogenic Sources ◽  
Reactive Nitrogen ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Emission Inventories ◽  
Measured Concentration ◽  
Atmospheric Dispersion Models

Abstract. Excess reactive Nitrogen (Nr) has become one of the most pressing environmental problems leading to air pollution, acidification and eutrophication of ecosystems, biodiversity impacts, leaching of nitrates into groundwater and global warming. This paper investigates how current inventories cover emissions of Nr to the atmosphere in Europe, the United States of America, and The People's Republic of China. The focus is on anthropogenic sources, assessing the state-of-the-art of quantifying emissions of Ammonia (NH3), Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) and Nitrous Oxide (N2O), the different purposes for which inventories are compiled, and to which extent current inventories meet the needs of atmospheric dispersion modelling. The paper concludes with a discussion of uncertainties involved and a brief outlook on emerging trends in the three regions investigated is conducted. Key issues are substantial differences in the overall magnitude, but as well in the relative sectoral contribution of emissions in the inventories that have been assessed. While these can be explained by the use of different methodologies and underlying data (e.g. emission factors or activity rates), they may lead to quite different results when using the emission datasets to model ambient air quality or the deposition with atmospheric dispersion models. Hence, differences and uncertainties in emission inventories are not merely of academic interest, but can have direct policy implications when the development of policy actions is based on these model results. The robustness of emission estimates varies greatly between substances, regions and emission source sectors. This has implications for the direction of future research needs and indicates how existing gaps between modelled and measured concentration or deposition rates could be most efficiently addressed. The observed current trends in emissions display decreasing NOx emissions and only slight reductions for NH3 in both Europe and the US. However, in China projections indicate a steep increase of both.

scholarly journals Racial disparities in prevalence, determinants, and impacts of COVID-19 in pregnancy: Protocol for a study using data from New Jersey hospitals

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Slawa Rokicki ◽  
Pauline Nguyen ◽  
Alaine Sharpe ◽  
Dyese Taylor ◽  
Suzanne Spernal ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
New Jersey ◽  
Pregnant Women ◽  
Ethnic Disparities ◽  
The United States ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Multivariable Logistic Regression Analysis ◽  
Racial And Ethnic Disparities ◽  
Infant Birth ◽  
The Impact

Introduction Racial and ethnic disparities in COVID-19 related infections, hospitalizations, and deaths have been well-documented. However, little research has examined racial and ethnic disparities in COVID-19 prevalence, determinants, and impacts among pregnant women. Within the United States, New Jersey was an early epicenter of the pandemic and experienced high rates of disease in the fall of 2020. Methods This study uses data from two New Jersey hospitals, which implemented universal testing of COVID-19 of pregnant women admitted for labor and delivery starting in March 2020. We will estimate prevalence of COVID-19 between March 2020 and November 2020 and compare prevalence rates across race and ethnicity. We will conduct multivariable logistic regression analysis to examine the associations of COVID-19 infection with patient demographic and health status predictors. We will also use multivariable linear and logistic regressions to examine the impact of COVID-19 symptomatic and asymptomatic infection on maternal and infant birth outcomes. Discussion This study will generate important policy implications on birth equity in the time of COVID-19 and guide future research studies related to COVID-19 in pregnant women. Results of this study will help to guide interventions and policies to center safe, accessible, and equitable maternity care within the strategic response to the pandemic.

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