Lack of Commitment, Retroactive Taxation, and Macroeconomic Instability

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Salvador Ortigueira ◽  
Joana Pereira
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Income Taxation ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
Positive Probability ◽  
Economic Fundamentals ◽  
Tax Legislation ◽  
Macroeconomic Instability ◽  
The Government ◽  
Lack Of Commitment ◽  
Neoclassical Economy

Abstract Retroactive tax legislation is constitutional in most high-income countries. In this paper we are concerned with the fiscal and macroeconomic consequences stemming from retroactive income taxation. Within the context of a real neoclassical economy, we find that if the government can set taxes retroactively within the fiscal year—or if there is a positive probability that a future government will be able to use retroactive taxation—then there exists a multiplicity of expectations-driven equilibria. In this case, neither fiscal policy nor macroeconomic aggregates are uniquely pinned down by economic fundamentals. Rather, they are determined by expectations about current and future fiscal policy. This implies that the government is a source of macroeconomic instability. By contrast, a constitutional reform banning the government from using retroactive tax legislation would yield a unique equilibrium, thus removing the possibility of expectations-driven fluctuations.

scholarly journals Policy Forum: Newfoundland and Labrador's Debt Strategy—Waiting for a Saviour or Godot?

2019 ◽  
Vol 67 (4) ◽  
pp. 983-1010
Author(s):  
Wade Locke ◽  
Douglas May
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Newfoundland And Labrador ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
Policy Response ◽  
Debt Problem ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Government ◽  
Policy Forum

When the government of Newfoundland and Labrador assumed office in late 2015, it declared that the expected deficit for the current fiscal year would be almost double that which was budgeted for by the predecessor government. The new government then adopted a very aggressive fiscal-policy stance in its first budget, tabled in April 2016. However, following the finance minister's resignation in July 2017, the government seemed to dramatically change its strategy, adopting a passive policy response to the worsening deficit situation. While in subsequent years Newfoundland and Labrador's annual deficit has fallen, its net and gross debt per capita have ballooned and reached new heights relative to Canada's other provinces. This article presents an in-depth investigation of this expansion and examines the probabilities of success, in the medium and long term, of the government's current fiscal strategy as a response to its deepening debt problem.

scholarly journals Pakistan: making a “COVID budget” in a struggling economy

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marium Ashfaq ◽  
Mohsin Bashir
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
Religious Groups ◽  
Political Factors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Policy Responses ◽  
Policy Measures ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to examine the fiscal measures undertaken by the Pakistani government to counter the recessionary pressures of the coronavirus pandemic. The authors analyse the economic, social and political factors that have shaped the government's fiscal policy response to this economic shock.Design/methodology/approachThe authors analyse the federal and provincial budget documents for the fiscal year 2020–21 to study the fiscal response of the government. The authors review recent research articles and news pieces to examine the determinants of these budgetary measures.FindingsThe government adopted expansionary fiscal policy measures such as reduced taxation and increased government expenditure to counter the recessionary pressures of the pandemic. These measures, however, were largely constrained by macroeconomic issues of high fiscal debt, slow economic growth and low fiscal space and political influences from the military and religious groups.Research limitations/implicationsThe coronavirus pandemic is an ongoing issue which may pose more threats and elicit more policy responses as it evolves. This research may be extended as the pandemic progresses, to include further policy responses.Originality/valueThis research provides insight into the unique problems faced by the Pakistani government during the pandemic, and how it steers the economy despite these limitations.

scholarly journals Optimal Time-Consistent Government Debt Maturity*

2016 ◽  
Vol 132 (1) ◽  
pp. 55-102 ◽  
Author(s):  
Davide Debortoli ◽  
Ricardo Nunes ◽  
Pierre Yared
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Government Debt ◽  
Debt Maturity ◽  
Optimal Time ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Maturity Structure ◽  
The Government ◽  
Lack Of Commitment ◽  
The Cost

Abstract This article develops a model of optimal government debt maturity in which the government cannot issue state-contingent bonds and cannot commit to fiscal policy. If the government can perfectly commit, it fully insulates the economy against government spending shocks by purchasing short-term assets and issuing long-term debt. These positions are quantitatively very large relative to GDP and do not need to be actively managed by the government. Our main result is that these conclusions are not robust to the introduction of lack of commitment. Under lack of commitment, large and tilted debt positions are very expensive to finance ex ante since they exacerbate the problem of lack of commitment ex post. In contrast, a flat maturity structure minimizes the cost of lack of commitment, though it also limits insurance and increases the volatility of fiscal policy distortions. We show that the optimal time-consistent maturity structure is nearly flat because reducing average borrowing costs is quantitatively more important for welfare than reducing fiscal policy volatility. Thus, under lack of commitment, the government actively manages its debt positions and can approximate optimal policy by confining its debt instruments to consols.

What Does Rent Give to Federal Budget (on the Russia's Budget Dependence upon "Oil Dollars")

2004 ◽  
pp. 51-69 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Sharipova ◽  
I. Tcherkashin
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Strong Dependence ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Federal Budget ◽  
Oil And Gas Industry ◽  
Gas Industry ◽  
Resource Rent ◽  
Tax Legislation ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
The Government

Federal tax revenues from the main sectors of the Russian economy after the 1998 crisis are examined in the article. Authors present the structure of revenues from these sectors by main taxes for 1999-2003 and prospects for 2004. Emphasis is given to an increasing dependence of budget on revenues from oil and gas industries. The share of proceeds from these sectors has reached 1/3 of total federal revenues. To explain this fact world oil prices dynamics and changes in tax legislation in Russia are considered. Empirical results show strong dependence of budget revenues on oil prices. The analysis of changes in tax legislation in oil and gas industry shows that the government has managed to redistribute resource rent in favor of the state.

Book Reviews

2006 ◽  
Vol 56 (4) ◽  
pp. 455-468
Author(s):  
Zoltán Ádám ◽  
László Csaba ◽  
András Bakács ◽  
Zoltán Pogátsa
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Monetary Union ◽  
Economic And Monetary Union ◽  
European Studies ◽  
Eu Accession ◽  
East European ◽  
The World ◽  
The Government

István Csillag - Péter Mihályi: Kettős kötés: A stabilizáció és a reformok 18 hónapja [Double Bandage: The 18 Months of Stabilisation and Reforms] (Budapest: Globális Tudás Alapítvány, 2006, 144 pp.) Reviewed by Zoltán Ádám; Marco Buti - Daniele Franco: Fiscal Policy in Economic and Monetary Union. Theory, Evidence and Institutions (Cheltenham/UK - Northampton/MA/USA: Edward Elgar Publishing Co., 2005, 320 pp.) Reviewed by László Csaba; Piotr Jaworski - Tomasz Mickiewicz (eds): Polish EU Accession in Comparative Perspective: Macroeconomics, Finance and the Government (School of Slavonic and East European Studies, University College of London, 2006, 171 pp.) Reviewed by András Bakács; Is FDI Based R&D Really Growing in Developing Countries? The World Investment Report 2005. Reviewed by Zoltán Pogátsa

scholarly journals Determinants of Non-Linear Effects of Fiscal Policy on Output: The Case of Bulgaria

2009 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 51-61 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vladimir Vladimirov ◽  
Maria Neycheva
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Currency Board ◽  
Main Determinant ◽  
The Real ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Linear Effects ◽  
Policy Impacts ◽  
The Government

Determinants of Non-Linear Effects of Fiscal Policy on Output: The Case of BulgariaThe paper illuminates the non-linear effects of the government budget on short-run economic activity. The study shows that in the Bulgarian economy under a Currency Board Arrangement the tax policy impacts the real growth in the standard Keynesian manner. On the other hand, the expenditure policy exhibits non-Keynesian behavior on the short-run output: cuts in government spending accelerate the real GDP growth. The main determinant of this outcome is the size of the discretionary budgetary changes. The results imply that the balanced budget rule improves the sustainability of public finances without assuring a growth-enhancing effect.

The South African public service wage bill deadlock in 2021: living on the edge

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Marianne Matthee ◽  
Albert Wöcke
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Learning Outcomes ◽  
South African ◽  
Public Service ◽  
Subject Area ◽  
The South ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Academic Level ◽  
Finance Minister ◽  
The Government

Subject area Macro-Economics. Study level/applicability Undergraduate and MBA. Case overview The COVID 19 pandemic-related restrictions devastated South Africa’s economy in 2020 and although the restrictions were generally less damaging than in 2020, the government had to budget for vaccinations and rebuild the economy. Public service unions had just announced that they were demanding an increase of 4% above inflation for their members and that they were preparing for a strike. They were bitter about the fact that the South African Government had withdrawn from the last year of a three-year wage agreement in February 2020 and their members had not received an increase for the two years. These demands and Finance Minister Mboweni’s response to them had to consider the structural and cyclical impact on the fiscus and economy. Expected learning outcomes The learning outcomes are as follows: understand the general objectives of fiscal policy and stakeholders’ interests; understand the tradeoffs in fiscal policy and the implications of taking a position; and make recommendations based on reasoned judgements about those recommendations. Complexity academic level Undergraduate and MBA level courses on Macro Economics. Supplementary materials Teaching notes are available for educators only. Subject code CSS 10: Public Sector Management.

EFFICIENCY OF THE TAX SYSTEM ON THE BASIS OF TRANSPARENCY AND REFORM

2021 ◽  
Vol 298 (5 Part 1) ◽  
pp. 219-222
Author(s):  
Ludmila Oleinikova ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Goods ◽  
Tax Evasion ◽  
Small Businesses ◽  
National Level ◽  
Tax Base ◽  
Tax System ◽  
Tax Legislation ◽  
Improve Compliance ◽  
Factors Of Production ◽  
The Government

The expediency is reasoned of creating a competitive environment in the context of globalization and limited factors of production, forcing countries to compete with each other and take measures to attract owners of factors of production by forming the optimal combination of institutional, public goods and tax preferences, where only tax preferences are not the key to success in competition, as opposed to general conditions of taxation in combination with infrastructural, institutional and public goods. Emphasis is placed on the rapid digitalization of economic processes and the globalization of even small businesses through online platforms that will significantly affect the struggle in the field of economic and institutional competition. It has been proven that it is already necessary to respond to new challenges which are associated with tax evasion, erosion of the tax base, a significant geographical gap between the location of factors of production and the jurisdiction of profit. It is established that the answers to these risks lie both in the plane of institutional readiness and in the plane of the effectiveness of the application of tax administration tools, including control, as well as the synergy of measures at the macro and micro levels. The variety of tools used in world practice to improve compliance with tax legislation is studied and their division into categories is indicated. The expediency of using mechanisms to ensure the transparency of the tax system is substantiated, along with measures to assure the transparency of taxpayers before the tax authorities at the national level, as well as mechanisms to provide accountability and transparency of the tax authorities themselves to the government, parliament and taxpayers. It is proposed, taking into account foreign experience, in addition to quantitative indicators of tax effectiveness, to use supplementary indicators that characterize the work of tax authorities, considering economy, effectiveness, efficiency, which will deepen the level of tax system performance.

scholarly journals Relative Effectiveness of Monetary and Fiscal Policies on Output Stabilization in Developing Countries: Evidence from Rwanda

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 220
Author(s):  
Kabanda Richard ◽  
Peter W. Muriu ◽  
Benjamin Maturu
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Relative Effectiveness ◽  
Variance Decomposition ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
Impulse Responses ◽  
Exogenous Variables ◽  
Output Stabilization ◽  
The Government

The aim of this study was to explain the relative effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policies in explaining output in Rwanda. The study used a sample of quarterly data for the period 1996-2014. Applying a recursive VAR, the study used 12 variables, including 5 endogenous and 7exogenous variables to the benchmark model and other two specifications were attempted to capture the true contribution of monetary and fiscal policies to variations in nominal output. Obtained results using impulse responses and variance decomposition provide evidence that monetary policy is more effective than fiscal policy in explaining changes in nominal output in Rwanda. In addition, monetary policy explains better output when the VAR model contains domestic exogenous variables than when they are not included, suggesting the relevance of including domestic exogenous variables in VAR specification of monetary and fiscal policies effectiveness on economic variables. Another suggestion is that in order to achieve higher growth, the government of Rwanda should rely more on monetary policy as compared to fiscal policy.

scholarly journals BARRIERS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH AND SAFETY MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS IN THE NIGERIAN CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (24) ◽  
pp. 90-99
Author(s):  
Adetunji Kamoli ◽  
Razali Adul Hamid ◽  
Syamsul Hendra Mahmud
Keyword(s):  
Construction Industry ◽  
Safety Management ◽  
Health And Safety ◽  
Occupational Accidents ◽  
Management Systems ◽  
Safety Management Systems ◽  
Construction Organizations ◽  
The Government ◽  
Lack Of Commitment ◽  
Collaborative Efforts

OHSMS has become the main part of the establishment’s lifeline and a prerequisite for its stability in the 21st century. There is a growing need for OHSMS, in its ability to solve occupational accidents and also to develop a robust relationship among the stakeholders. The mission of OHSMS has not been followed in the Nigerian construction industry. The study, therefore, explores the barriers to the development of OHSMS in the Nigerian construction industry. The study adopted a literature review of OHSMS and thereafter, 300 structured questionnaires were administered to the construction professionals in the built environment of the Nigerian nation’s Capital-Abuja. 247 of the administered questionnaires were returned, considered for the analysis of the study. The data were analysed with SPSS and excel. The findings of the study indicate that the lack of commitment of the government, inefficient regulatory authorities, and lack of expertise in the OHS activities are the major barriers to the development of OHSMS. The study recommends collaborative efforts from the construction organizations, employees, and construction professionals to support the government on the OHSMS.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document