Incentivizing Peace

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaroslav Tir ◽  
Johannes Karreth
Keyword(s):  
World War Ii ◽  
Civil Wars ◽  
Full Scale ◽  
Armed Conflicts ◽  
East Timor ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Self Interest ◽  
The World ◽  
Economic Tools ◽  
The Impact

Civil wars are one of the most pressing problems facing the world. Common approaches such as mediation, intervention, and peacekeeping have produced some results in managing ongoing civil wars, but they fall short in preventing civil wars in the first place. This book argues for considering civil wars from a developmental perspective to identify steps to assure that nascent, low-level armed conflicts do not escalate to full-scale civil wars. We show that highly structured intergovernmental organizations (IGOs, e.g. the World Bank or IMF) are particularly well positioned to engage in civil war prevention. Such organizations have both an enduring self-interest in member-state peace and stability and potent (economic) tools to incentivize peaceful conflict resolution. The book advances the hypothesis that countries that belong to a larger number of highly structured IGOs face a significantly lower risk that emerging low-level armed conflicts on their territories will escalate to full-scale civil wars. Systematic analyses of over 260 low-level armed conflicts that have occurred around the globe since World War II provide consistent and robust support for this hypothesis. The impact of a greater number of memberships in highly structured IGOs is substantial, cutting the risk of escalation by over one-half. Case evidence from Indonesia’s East Timor conflict, Ivory Coast’s post-2010 election crisis, and from the early stages of the conflict in Syria in 2011 provide additional evidence that memberships in highly structured IGOs are indeed key to understanding why some low-level armed conflicts escalate to civil wars and others do not.

The Empirical Record of Highly Structured Intergovernmental Organizations and Armed Conflict Escalation

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaroslav Tir ◽  
Johannes Karreth
Keyword(s):  
World War Ii ◽  
Civil War ◽  
Armed Conflict ◽  
Empirical Test ◽  
Full Scale ◽  
Armed Conflicts ◽  
Intergovernmental Organizations ◽  
Main Hypothesis ◽  
Low Level ◽  
The Impact

For a systematic, empirical test of this book’s main hypothesis, we develop a research design for a quantitative analysis of low-level armed conflicts. We define these conflicts as the occurrence of politically motivated violence resulting in at least twenty-five battle deaths. The analysis examines whether low-level armed conflict escalated to full-scale civil war and surpassed a threshold of 1,000 casualties. Since World War II, roughly one-third of more than 260 separate low-level armed conflicts have escalated to civil war. Analyzing systematic patterns among these conflicts, we find strong evidence favoring our hypothesis. Countries that belong to a larger number of highly structured intergovernmental organizations (IGOs) face a significantly lower risk that emerging low-level armed conflicts on their territories escalate to full-scale civil wars. The impact of a greater number of memberships in highly structured IGOs is substantial, cutting the risk of escalation by more than half.

Case Evidence: Conflict Trajectories in Indonesia, Ivory Coast, and Syria

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaroslav Tir ◽  
Johannes Karreth
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Ivory Coast ◽  
Armed Conflicts ◽  
East Timor ◽  
Intergovernmental Organizations ◽  
Crisis Resolution ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Qualitative Evidence ◽  
The Government

Two low-level armed conflicts, Indonesia’s East Timor and Ivory Coast’s post-2010 election crises, provide detailed qualitative evidence of highly structured intergovernmental organizations (IGOs) engaging in effective civil warpreventing activities in member-states. Highly structured IGOs threatened and sanctioned each of these states and offered (long-term) benefits conditional on successful crisis resolution. The governments were aware of and responded to these IGOs’ concerns, as did the rebels in these respective cases. The early stages of the conflict in Syria in 2011 provide a counterpoint. With Syria’s limited engagement in only few highly structured IGOs, the Syrian government ignored international calls for peace. And, without highly structured IGOs’ counterweight to curtail the government, the rebels saw little reason to stop their armed resistance. The result was a brutal and deadly civil war that continues today.

scholarly journals The Impact of Concave Coastline on Rainfall Offshore Distribution over Indonesian Maritime Continent

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Furqon Alfahmi ◽  
Rizaldi Boer ◽  
Rahmat Hidayat ◽  
Perdinan ◽  
Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan
Keyword(s):  
Rainfall Intensity ◽  
Land Breeze ◽  
Convergence Zone ◽  
Maritime Continent ◽  
Low Level ◽  
The North ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Support Activity ◽  
Trmm 3B42

Indonesian Maritime Continent has the second longest coastline in the world, but the characteristics of offshore rainfall and its relation to coastline type are not clearly understood. As a region with eighty percent being an ocean, knowledge of offshore rainfall is important to support activity over oceans. This study investigates the climatology of offshore rainfall based on TRMM 3B42 composite during 1998-2015 and its dynamical atmosphere which induces high rainfall intensity using WRF-ARW. The result shows that concave coastline drives the increasing rainfall over ocean with Cenderawasih Bay (widest concave coastline) having the highest rainfall offshore intensity (16.5 mm per day) over Indonesian Maritime Continent. Monthly peak offshore rainfall over concave coastline is related to direction of concave coastline and peak of diurnal cycle influenced by the shifting of low level convergence. Concave coastline facing the north has peak during northwesterly monsoonal flow (March), while concave coastline facing the east has peak during easterly monsoonal flow (July). Low level convergence zone shifts from inland during daytime to ocean during nighttime. Due to shape of concave coastline, land breeze strengthens low level convergence and supports merging rainfall over ocean during nighttime. Rainfall propagating from the area around inland to ocean is approximately 5.4 m/s over Cenderawasih Bay and 4.1 m/s over Tolo Bay. Merger rainfall and low level convergence are playing role in increasing offshore rainfall over concave coastline.

Franklin D. Roosevelt and US Foreign Relations

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Graham Cross
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
New York ◽  
World War Ii ◽  
Foreign Relations ◽  
Active Role ◽  
The United States ◽  
American People ◽  
World War ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact

Franklin D. Roosevelt was US president in extraordinarily challenging times. The impact of both the Great Depression and World War II make discussion of his approach to foreign relations by historians highly contested and controversial. He was one of the most experienced people to hold office, having served in the Wilson administration as Assistant Secretary of the Navy, completed two terms as Governor of New York, and held a raft of political offices. At heart, he was an internationalist who believed in an engaged and active role for the United States in world. During his first two terms as president, Roosevelt had to temper his international engagement in response to public opinion and politicians wanting to focus on domestic problems and wary of the risks of involvement in conflict. As the world crisis deepened in the 1930s, his engagement revived. He adopted a gradualist approach to educating the American people in the dangers facing their country and led them to eventual participation in war and a greater role in world affairs. There were clearly mistakes in his diplomacy along the way and his leadership often appeared flawed, with an ambiguous legacy founded on political expediency, expanded executive power, vague idealism, and a chronic lack of clarity to prepare Americans for postwar challenges. Nevertheless, his policies to prepare the United States for the coming war saw his country emerge from years of depression to become an economic superpower. Likewise, his mobilization of his country’s enormous resources, support of key allies, and the holding together of a “Grand Alliance” in World War II not only brought victory but saw the United States become a dominant force in the world. Ultimately, Roosevelt’s idealistic vision, tempered with a sound appreciation of national power, would transform the global position of the United States and inaugurate what Henry Luce described as “the American Century.”

Terrorism in the Context of Conflicts in the Modern World

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 121-132
Author(s):  
Waldemar Zubrzycki
Keyword(s):  
World War Ii ◽  
Civil Wars ◽  
Armed Conflicts ◽  
Modern World ◽  
The Political ◽  
World War ◽  
Islamic Fundamentalism ◽  
Regional Specificity ◽  
Global Threat ◽  
Frequent Reason

Contrary to popular expectations, armed conflicts persisted after the end of World War II. Some countries are fighting for independence, others for influence, and others are experiencing civil wars. This is determined by cultural, ethnic and religious differences. The modern world is tormented by many conflicts which, despite their regional scope, have an impact on the political and military situation on the entire globe. The functioning of formal borders that do not coincide with national borders, the low sense of nationality compared to ethnicity, poverty and political instability are also conducive to the use of terrorist methods. Terrorism is almost as old as civilisation. However, unlike in the past, today’s terrorists use violence on an unprecedented scale. Terrorism in many cases shows its regional specificity, varying according to the cultural and civilisation area in which it occurs. Reasons for resorting to terrorist methods may be a need for freedom, protection of one’s heritage, sense of harm done by the occupier, a need to express dissatisfaction with the political system or changes being made, or, finally, a mere desire to draw attention to the problems of countries and societies that have not yet been noticed or have been ignored by public opinion. Religion is also a frequent reason for resorting to terrorism. Contemporary terrorism is represented mainly by extremist Islamic fundamentalism and is based on the clash of two cultures. It is a global threat, and anyone can become its potential victim today. Numerous signals of the emergence of new, hitherto unknown organisations prove that in the future, unfortunately, the escalation of the phenomenon will have to be taken into account.

Economic Concentration and Monopoly in Japan—A Second View

1976 ◽  
Vol 36 (1) ◽  
pp. 57-77 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eugene Rotwein
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
World War Ii ◽  
Total Output ◽  
World War ◽  
The Third ◽  
Economic Achievement ◽  
The World ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Economic Concentration ◽  
The Impact

In the period since the end of World War II, the Japanese economic achievement has been of prodigious proportions. During this period, its growth rate—an average of almost 10% in GNP per year—has been the highest in the world. Japan has become the third-ranking industrial nation and its world standing, in terms of per capita GNP, has risen from fortieth in the early 1950s to twelfth at the present time. Growth so sweeping and rapid inevitably has brought a multitude of changes, not least in the composition of total output. At a highly accelerated rate, industries have declined, others have blossomed, new industries have appeared, and the importance of various sectors of the economy has changed. Amidst the continuing adjustments and readjustments, it is of interest to consider the nature of the impact on Japanese industrial organization. More specifically, what has been the effect on economic concentration and monopoly in Japan?

Civil War and Religion: Turkey

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gülay Türkmen
Keyword(s):  
Conflict Resolution ◽  
Civil Wars ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Armed Conflicts ◽  
Interstate Conflicts ◽  
Kurdistan Workers Party ◽  
Kurdish Conflict ◽  
Role Of Religion ◽  
The Impact

Out of the 111 armed conflicts that took place worldwide between 1989 and 2000, only seven were interstate conflicts. The others were intrastate in nature. As a result, the last decade and a half witnessed a boom in the publication of works on civil wars. While the percentage of civil wars involving religion increased from 21% to 43% between the 1960s and 1990s, scholars have been rather slow to integrate the study of religion into the overall framework of conflict in general, and of civil wars in particular. Operating under the impact of the secularization thesis and treating religion as an aspect of ethnicity, the literature on civil wars has long embraced ethnonationalism as its subject matter. Yet, since the early 2000s there has been a rapid increase in the number of works focusing on religion and civil wars. While one branch treats religion as a trigger for and an exacerbating factor in conflict, another focuses on religion as a conflict resolution tool. Turkey is an apt case to ponder the latter as several governments have deployed religion (namely, Sunni Islam) as a tool to suppress ethnic divisions for years. During the Justice and Development Party (AKP) rule, religion has gained even more visibility as a conflict resolution tool in the 33-year-long armed ethnic conflict between the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK). Yet, the role of religion in Turkey’s Kurdish conflict still remains understudied. Increased attention to this topic could deliver important insights not only for those who conduct research on the Kurdish conflict in Turkey specifically, but also for those who explore the role of religion in civil wars more generally.

Interview with Richard Overy

2015 ◽  
Vol 97 (900) ◽  
pp. 969-983
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
World War Ii ◽  
World War I ◽  
Historical Perspective ◽  
Armed Conflicts ◽  
World War ◽  
Traditional Use ◽  
Total War ◽  
The World ◽  
The University

Richard Overy is Professor of History at the University of Exeter and the author of more than twenty-five books on the age of the World Wars and European dictatorship, including The Bombing War: Europe 1939–1945. He is a Fellow of the British Academy.Airpower has been used in armed conflicts since World War I. Aircraft have been deployed in support of the army on the ground and the navy on the surface. However, the twentieth century, with two World Wars, has also seen aerial bombardment of cities that fell outside the traditional use of airpower. During World War II, as part of the ideology of “total war”, cities were deliberately selected as targets of such attacks with the purpose of undermining the morale of the enemy's population and “winning the war”. Nowadays, although the deliberate bombing of entire cities is prohibited, it is still believed that aerial bombardment can produce certain political dividends for belligerents. In this interview, Richard Overy provides a historical perspective on the evolution of aerial bombardment since the World Wars, and puts in context the use of airpower in contemporary armed conflicts.

Patronage and Science: Roger Revelle, the U.S. Navy, and Oceanography at the Scripps Institution

2000 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 58-89 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ronald Rainger
Keyword(s):  
World War Ii ◽  
Scientific Research ◽  
Considerable Change ◽  
World War ◽  
Scripps Institution ◽  
The World ◽  
La Jolla ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
The U.S

In the years between 1940 and 1955, American oceanography experienced considerable change. Nowhere was that more true than at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in La Jolla, California. There Roger Revelle (1909-1991) played a major role in transforming a small, seaside laboratory into one of the leading oceanographic centers in the world. This paper explores the impact that World War II had on oceanography and his career. Through an analysis of his activities as a naval officer responsible for promoting oceanography in the navy and wartime civilian laboratories, this article examines his understanding of the relationship between military patronage and scientific research and the impact that this relationship had on disciplinary and institutional developments at Scripps.

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