Estimating the Severity of the WikiLeaks U.S. Diplomatic Cables Disclosure

2015 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 299-305 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Gill ◽  
Arthur Spirling
Keyword(s):  
International Relations ◽  
Private Information ◽  
Minimum Variance ◽  
Prison Sentence ◽  
The Public ◽  
Discrete Uniform Distribution ◽  
Discrete Uniform ◽  
Official Sources ◽  
The U.S

In November 2010, the WikiLeaks organization began the release of over 250,000 diplomatic cables sent by U.S. embassies to the U.S. State Department, uploaded to its website by (then) Private Manning, an intelligence analyst with the U.S. Army. This leak was widely condemned, including by then Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. We assess the severity of the leak by considering the size of the disclosure relative to all diplomatic cables that were in existence at the time—a quantity that is not known outside official sources. We rely on the fact that the cables that were leaked are internally indexed in such a way that they may be treated as a sample from a discrete uniform distribution with unknown maximum; this is a version of the well-known “German Tank Problem.” We consider three estimators that rely on discrete uniformity—maximum likelihood, Bayesian, and frequentist unbiased minimum variance—and demonstrate that the results are very similar in all cases. To supplement these estimators, we employ a regression-based procedure that incorporates the timing of cables' release in addition to their observed serial numbers. We estimate that, overall, approximately 5% of all cables from this timeframe were leaked, but that this number varies considerably at the embassy-year level. Our work provides a useful characterization of the sample of documents available to international relations scholars interested in testing theories of “private information,” while helping inform the public debate surrounding Manning's trial and 35-year prison sentence.

Comment on “Which Earthquake Accounts Matter?” by Susan E. Hough and Stacey S. Martin

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
David J. Wald
Keyword(s):  
Demographic Data ◽  
The United States ◽  
Macroseismic Data ◽  
Online Data ◽  
The Public ◽  
The World ◽  
Online Data Collection ◽  
Large Earthquakes ◽  
The U.S

Abstract In their analysis of the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) “Did You Feel It?” (DYFI) data Hough and Martin (2021) claim, among other assertions, that the following: Socioeconomic and geopolitical factors can introduce biases in the USGS’ characterization of earthquakes and their effects, especially if online data collection systems are not designed to be broadly accessible;These biases can, in turn, potentially cascade in myriad ways, potentially shaping our understanding of an earthquake’s impact and the characterization of seismic hazard; andCaution should be urged when relying on data from the DYFI system to characterize the distribution of shaking from large earthquakes in India and other parts of the world (outside of the United States). Claims of inequity in access, systematic data biases, or urging caution in the usage of data from critical governmental earthquake information systems should not be made, nor taken, lightly. Several assertions made by Hough and Martin (hereafter, H&M) about the nature of DYFI contributors—and the data they provide—leave a false narrative concerning DYFI system accessibility and quality that H&M have not adequately substantiated. I describe several shortcomings of H&M’s demographic statistics and methodology, focusing on four main concerns. First, DYFI has revolutionized and greatly facilitated access to reporting intensities, in contrast to H&M claims to the contrary. Second, because DYFI does not directly collect demographic data other than the observer’s location, any demographic analyses require extraordinary inferences, well outside the normal bounds of sociodemographic analyses. Third, independent of accessibility and the geographic distribution of contributions from the public, the macroseismic data collected are nonetheless representative of the shaking and impact at each location, of quality, rapid, and thus extremely useful. Lastly, H&M fail to cite critical and pertinent prior, highly relevant scholarly studies, and as such, they misrepresent the novelty of their own work as well as miss key practical matters detailed in those prior studies. Prior to rebutting what H&M claim DYFI does not do, I will remind the reader the ways in which DYFI excels.

Conclusion: Taking Resolve Seriously

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joshua D. Kertzer
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
International Relations ◽  
Private Information ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Self Control ◽  
Dark Side ◽  
The Public ◽  
Interactionist Theory

This book has investigated the microfoundations of resolve in international relations by connecting international relations scholarship with a burgeoning body of research on willpower and self-control in other disciplines. It has found relatively consistent evidence in favor of the importance of the costs of backing down, but less so with the costs of fighting. At a broader level, the book also finds evidence in favor of an interactionist theory of resolve. This concluding chapter discusses the ramifications of the book's findings for the rationalist international relations literature, the public opinion literature, and the literature evaluating the public's prudence, rationality, and consistency. In particular, it challenges the standard understanding of resolve as private information that decision-makers can access but foreign rivals cannot. It also considers the so-called “dark side of resolve,” the distinction between situations and dispositions, whether leaders are homogenous, and a pure dispositional theory of resolve.

scholarly journals ATTRACTED BY THE DRAGON OR THE EAGLE? WILL CHINA OR THE U.S. PREVAIL IN THE ASIA-PACIFIC IN THE 21ST CENTURY?

Politeja ◽  
1970 ◽  
Vol 14 (5 (50)) ◽  
pp. 323-334
Author(s):  
Marcin GRABOWSKI
Keyword(s):  
International Relations ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
Regional Security ◽  
Pacific Region ◽  
The Public ◽  
Gross World Product ◽  
The Cold War ◽  
Global Population ◽  
The U.S

ATTRACTED BY THE DRAGON OR THE EAGLE? WILL CHINA OR THE U.S. PREVAIL IN THE ASIA-PACIFIC IN THE 21ST CENTURY? The Asia-Pacific region (or Indo-Pacific region) has been the most important and the most dynamic region of the world since the end of the Cold War. With approxi mately two thirds of the global population and similar share in Gross World Product, as well as the presence of major military and nuclear powers (United States, China, Russia, In-dia, Pakistan and North Korea) it has attracted attention of both the public and schol-ars. Therefore, numerous analyses of strategic situation, security, international relations of the region have been written or published by prominent scholars. They have en-compassed either broader Asia-Pacific, Asia and, to lesser extent, Indo-Pacific region or focused on more specific issues. It is not possible to discuss the global body of the literature here, but this essay will briefly compare the work of Enrico Fels1 with other important publications in the field. Generally two categories were selected, firstly – publications dealing with the regional security or international relations in the region (however defined), secondly, analyzing Sino-American relations (sometimes in the context of broader Asia-Pacific policy of the U.S. government).

Facing the Challenge of Democracy

2011 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Participation ◽  
Interest Groups ◽  
Political Knowledge ◽  
The Political ◽  
Political Thinking ◽  
Democratic Representation ◽  
The Public ◽  
Party Polarization

Citizens are political simpletons—that is only a modest exaggeration of a common characterization of voters. Certainly, there is no shortage of evidence of citizens' limited political knowledge, even about matters of the highest importance, along with inconsistencies in their thinking, some glaring by any standard. But this picture of citizens all too often approaches caricature. This book brings together leading political scientists who offer new insights into the political thinking of the public, the causes of party polarization, the motivations for political participation, and the paradoxical relationship between turnout and democratic representation. These studies propel a foundational argument about democracy. Voters can only do as well as the alternatives on offer. These alternatives are constrained by third players, in particular activists, interest groups, and financial contributors. The result: voters often appear to be shortsighted, extreme, and inconsistent because the alternatives they must choose between are shortsighted, extreme, and inconsistent.

The Public and Private Information Sources of Volatility

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anne Opschoor ◽  
Michel van der Wel ◽  
Dick J. C. van Dijk ◽  
Nicholas Taylor
Keyword(s):  
Private Information ◽  
Information Sources ◽  
Public And Private ◽  
The Public

Voting at the U.S. Constitutional Convention

2019 ◽  
pp. 780-796
Author(s):  
Keith L. Dougherty
Keyword(s):  
Public Choice ◽  
Constitutional Convention ◽  
The Public ◽  
Public Choice Perspective ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The U.S

This chapter describes how the public-choice perspective has provided new insights into the U.S. Constitutional Convention of 1787. It reviews articles on the impact of the rules of the Convention, attempts to infer delegate votes, and reviews how public choice has helped us understand the adoption of various clauses in the Constitution and studies of the Beard thesis.

scholarly journals A Panel Evaluation of the Changes in the General Public’s Social-Media-Following of United States’ Public Health Departments during COVID-19 Pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
pp. 215013272199545
Author(s):  
Areej Khokhar ◽  
Aaron Spaulding ◽  
Zuhair Niazi ◽  
Sikander Ailawadhi ◽  
Rami Manochakian ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Social Media ◽  
State Level ◽  
The State ◽  
Public Health Department ◽  
Health Departments ◽  
The Public ◽  
Public Health Departments ◽  
The Social ◽  
The U.S

Importance: Social media is widely used by various segments of society. Its role as a tool of communication by the Public Health Departments in the U.S. remains unknown. Objective: To determine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on social media following of the Public Health Departments of the 50 States of the U.S. Design, Setting, and Participants: Data were collected by visiting the Public Health Department web page for each social media platform. State-level demographics were collected from the U.S. Census Bureau. The Center for Disease Control and Prevention was utilized to collect information regarding the Governance of each State’s Public Health Department. Health rankings were collected from “America’s Health Rankings” 2019 Annual report from the United Health Foundation. The U.S. News and World Report Education Rankings were utilized to provide information regarding the public education of each State. Exposure: Data were pulled on 3 separate dates: first on March 5th (baseline and pre-national emergency declaration (NED) for COVID-19), March 18th (week following NED), and March 25th (2 weeks after NED). In addition, a variable identifying the total change across platforms was also created. All data were collected at the State level. Main Outcome: Overall, the social media following of the state Public Health Departments was very low. There was a significant increase in the public interest in following the Public Health Departments during the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. Results: With the declaration of National Emergency, there was a 150% increase in overall public following of the State Public Health Departments in the U.S. The increase was most noted in the Midwest and South regions of the U.S. The overall following in the pandemic “hotspots,” such as New York, California, and Florida, was significantly lower. Interesting correlations were noted between various demographic variables, health, and education ranking of the States and the social media following of their Health Departments. Conclusion and Relevance: Social media following of Public Health Departments across all States of the U.S. was very low. Though, the social media following significantly increased during the early course of the COVID-19 pandemic, but it still remains low. Significant opportunity exists for Public Health Departments to improve social media use to engage the public better.

scholarly journals Development and characterization of probiotic mucilage based edible films for the preservation of fruits and vegetables

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Seyed Mohammad Davachi ◽  
Neethu Pottackal ◽  
Hooman Torabi ◽  
Alireza Abbaspourrad
Keyword(s):  
Fruits And Vegetables ◽  
Uv Light ◽  
Barrier Properties ◽  
Edible Films ◽  
Food Preservation ◽  
Elongation At Break ◽  
The Public ◽  
Medical Benefits ◽  
Seed Mucilage

AbstractThere is growing interest among the public and scientific community toward the use of probiotics to potentially restore the composition of the gut microbiome. With the aim of preparing eco-friendly probiotic edible films, we explored the addition of probiotics to the seed mucilage films of quince, flax, and basil. These mucilages are natural and compatible blends of different polysaccharides that have demonstrated medical benefits. All three seed mucilage films exhibited high moisture retention regardless of the presence of probiotics, which is needed to help preserve the moisture/freshness of food. Films from flax and quince mucilage were found to be more thermally stable and mechanically robust with higher elastic moduli and elongation at break than basil mucilage films. These films effectively protected fruits against UV light, maintaining the probiotics viability and inactivation rate during storage. Coated fruits and vegetables retained their freshness longer than uncoated produce, while quince-based probiotic films showed the best mechanical, physical, morphological and bacterial viability. This is the first report of the development, characterization and production of 100% natural mucilage-based probiotic edible coatings with enhanced barrier properties for food preservation applications containing probiotics.

scholarly journals Agenda-setting and Public Policy in Private Foundations

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexandra Kate Williamson ◽  
Belinda Luke
Keyword(s):  
Public Policy ◽  
Agenda Setting ◽  
Public Communication ◽  
Philanthropic Foundations ◽  
Policy Influence ◽  
The Public ◽  
Private Foundations ◽  
Social Causes ◽  
The U.S

AbstractThis paper examines advocacy, agenda-setting and the public policy focus of private philanthropic foundations in Australia. While concerns have been raised regarding advocacy and public policy influence of foundations in countries such as the U.S., less is understood on this issue in other contexts. Interviews were conducted with 11 managers and trustees of 10 Private Ancillary Funds (PAFs) in late 2014. Analysis of publicly available data on the participating PAFs was then undertaken comparing PAF information available at the time of the interviews with that available approximately five years later, to consider any changes in the public communication of their agendas. Findings reveal PAFs’ agendas were largely consistent with public policy but may vary in the approaches to address social causes. Further, a preference for privacy indicates the PAF sector may be characterised as ‘quiet philanthropy’ rather than having a visible public presence. As such, PAFs’ advocacy focused on promoting philanthropy, rather than altering or influencing public policy. Our main contention is that the conceptions of advocacy in structured philanthropy are dominated by the obvious, the outliers and the noisy. Our contribution to the philanthropic literature is a more nuanced and broader discussion of how advocacy and agenda-setting occurs and is understood in the mainstream.

scholarly journals Social Acceptance for Commercialization of Genetically Modified Food Animals

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ziyao Fan ◽  
Yulian Mu ◽  
Tad Sonstegard ◽  
Xiaomei Zhai ◽  
Kui Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Natural Variation ◽  
Social Acceptance ◽  
Genetically Modified ◽  
Genetically Modified Food ◽  
The Public ◽  
Global Challenge ◽  
Social License ◽  
Food Animals ◽  
Natural Mutation ◽  
The U.S

Abstract Genetically modified food animals (GMFAs) are needed to address early the cumulative effects of livestock production on the environment and to accommodate future food demands. In 2020 China and the U.S., the world's two largest economies, embarked on regulatory reforms to boost the commercialization of such animals. However, gaining social acceptance of GMFAs for commercialization remains a global challenge. We propose a framework that focuses on social license for commercialization of GMFAs by defining four classes of improvement using precision genetics: 1) animals equivalent to natural variation to obtain the improved effect of cross-breeding (ENV); 2) animals with an inactivated gene that could occur via natural mutation (ENC-); 3) animals harboring a natural genetic sequence isolated from another species (ENC+); and 4) animals with synthetic sequences encoding novel genes (BNE). Our approach can guide regulators and the public to support orderly commercialization of genetically modified food animals.

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