scholarly journals Monetary Policy and Corporate Bond Returns

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 441-489 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haifeng Guo ◽  
Alexandros Kontonikas ◽  
Paulo Maio
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Corporate Bond ◽  
Term Premium ◽  
Bond Returns ◽  
Policy Shocks ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
The Impact

Abstract We investigate the impact of monetary policy shocks on excess corporate bonds returns. We obtain a significant negative response of bond returns to policy shocks, which is especially strong among low-grading bonds. The largest portion of this response is related to higher expected bond returns (risk premium news), while the impact on expectations of future interest rates (interest rate news) plays a secondary role. However, the interest rate channel is dominant among high-grading bonds and Treasury bonds. Looking at the two components of bond premium news, we find that the dominant channel for high-rating (low-rating) bonds is term premium (credit premium) news. (JEL 44, E52, G10, G12) Received: March 25, 2019: Editorial decision: March 27, 2020 by Editor: Hui Chen. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

scholarly journals Monetary Policy Effects on Energy Sector Bubbles

Energies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 472
Author(s):  
Petre Caraiani ◽  
Adrian Călin
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Asset Prices ◽  
The United States ◽  
Energy Sector ◽  
Monetary Policy Shocks ◽  
Policy Shocks ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
The Impact

We investigate the effects of monetary policy shocks, including unconventional policy measures, on the bubbles of the energy sector, for the case of the United States. We estimate a time-varying Bayesian VAR model that allows for quantifying the impact of monetary policy shocks on asset prices and bubbles. The energy sector is measured through the S&P Energy Index, while bubbles are measured through the difference between asset prices and the corresponding dividends for the energy sector. We find significant differences in the impact of monetary policy shocks for the aggregate economy and for the energy sector. The findings seem sensitive to the interest rate use, i.e., whether one uses the shadow interest rate or the long-term interest rate.

scholarly journals Monetary Policy Shocks in the Russian Economy and Their Macroeconomic Effects

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 48-75
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Monetary Policy Shocks ◽  
Interest Rate Policy ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Policy Shocks ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
The Interest Rate

This section conducts an estimate of the impulse response function of key macroeconomic variables to monetary policy shocks in Russia. The estimates are carried out through a dynamic factor model (DFM) of the Russian economy with structural identification of shocks by imposing various sets of sign restrictions on the behavior of endogenous variables. We restricted first the monetary aggregate M2 only (a decrease in response to an increase of the Key rate), and then—simultaneously—M2, real effective exchange rate (an increase), and GDP (a decrease). We estimated the DFM using a large dataset of 58 macroeconomic and financial variables. The estimation results suggest that there is no decreasing response of consumer prices to an exogenous tightening of the interest rate policy of the Central Bank of Russia. This empirical evidence is supported implicitly by DFM-based predictions that under the imposition of such a decreasing response as an identifying restriction to the model, a positive interest rate shock is not transmitted through the interest rate channel of monetary policy to expected increases of the interest rates on commercial loans and private deposits. However, existing empirical evidence refutes this model-based result. Therefore, this study supports the view according to which a tightening of monetary policy in Russia is inefficient in terms of restraining inflation. In addition, monetary policy shocks negatively affect investments, retail sales, export and import, real wages, and employment. Different economic activities react differently to monetary policy shocks: export-oriented activities are not sensitive to these shocks, whereas domestic pro-cyclical activities (e.g. construction) can be substantially depressed in response to unexpected increases of interest rates. Finally, the expectations of economic agents are also significantly affected by shocks in the interest rate policy of the Bank of Russia.

scholarly journals Die Auswirkungen Der Zinspolitik Im Bankensystem Und Bei Immobilienentwicklungen / The Impact Of Interest Rate Policy, On The Banking System And On Real Estate Development

2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 13-25
Author(s):  
Pamela Priess
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Liquidity Premium ◽  
Interest Rate Policy ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The research purpose is to find out if signs of a real estate bubble are shown at the austrian real estate market right now. Lending rates are composed of different factors: the base rate is the price that the customer is willing to pay. The risk premium is given to compensate the lenders risk of full or partial failure of repayment. The inflation adjustment takes into account the impairment of money over the term of a loan. The liquidity premium increases with extension of the term of the loan. The European Central Bank influences the interest rate policy by varying the interest for money saved there by the banks. At the moment there are used negative interest rates, i.e. penalty interest. The methodology used was that recently the ECB lowered the interest rates which might cause real estate bubbles and, subsequently, banks and economic crises may follow, if interest rates were to be increased again sooner or later. Therefor the author studied the amount of sales and the connection to the interest rates and the interest rate policy of the banks right now. Summarizing it can be seen that in Kittsee, an Austrian area with a lot of real estate sales, as an example, 565 real estate properties were sold in the years 2005 to 2015, the median prices increased in relation to the buyers residence in Austria or non- Austrians at about 375% to 490%, this might indicate signs of change on the market.

Examining the Asymmetric Impact of Monetary Policy in India

2017 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 290-314 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeevan Kumar Khundrakpam
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Government Consumption ◽  
Policy Shocks ◽  
Significant Negative Impact ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
The Impact

Though an accumulating body of work has analysed monetary policy transmission in India, there are few studies examining the asymmetric aspect of the transmission. Against this backdrop, segregating the interest rate setting process captured by a Taylor rule type into unanticipated and anticipated components, this article analyses the asymmetric effects of monetary policy on aggregate demand and its components, and inflation in India using quarterly data from 1996–97Q1 to 2013–14Q3. It finds that unanticipated hikes and cuts in the policy rate have a symmetric impact on aggregate demand, but differentially impact the components. While the impacts on investment are negative and symmetric, they are asymmetric on private consumption, with only an unanticipated cut in policy rate having a significant negative impact. Government consumption is unaffected by monetary policy shocks. The impact of unanticipated interest rate changes on inflation is negative and symmetric. Anticipated policy rate changes also have a negative impact on aggregate demand and its components, except for government consumption, but between certain levels, such changes are ineffective, indicating a neutral impact. Anticipated policy rate changes have a negative impact on inflation at all levels. JEL Classification: C32, C51, E31, E52

scholarly journals The Effect of Monetary Policy on Interest Rates in Turkey: A Microstructural Analysis

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 299
Author(s):  
Muharrem Afsar ◽  
Aslı Afsar ◽  
Emrah Dogan
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Microstructural Analysis ◽  
Turkish Republic ◽  
Interest Rate Volatility ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
One Year ◽  
Effect Of Monetary Policy ◽  
The Impact

The purpose of this study it to investigate the impact of monetary policy announcements by Central Bank of the Turkish Republic (CBRT) on market interest rates via micro variables on interest rates. In this context, this study investigated the relationship between monetary policy announcements and market interest rates for 2011:01-2015:10 term using GARCH model. The estimates have indicated that monetary policy announcements have different impacts on interest rate volatilities when distinguished as decisions on increasing, decreasing or fixing interest rates. It was found that contractionary monetary policy announcements have different impacts on market interest rates volatilities analyzed in the present study, while expansionary monetary policy announcements decrease the volatility on market interest rates. On the other hand, the announcements towards fixing the monetary policy increases the interest rate volatility of market interest rates. The results of the analysis also indicated that deposit interest rate weighted up to one year are affected the least by the monetary policy changes.

Wertpapierpensionsgeschäfte. Empirische Analyse der Wirkung des Zinstendersatzes auf die Marktzinsen / Repurchase Agreements. An Empirical Analysis of the Impact on Market Interest Rates

1995 ◽  
Vol 214 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Johannes Jaenicke
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Bond Market ◽  
Strong Impact ◽  
Empirische Analyse ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Repurchase Agreements ◽  
The Impact

SummaryThis paper examines the influence of monetary policy on market interest rates by testing for Granger-causality between the rates for interest rate tender and the interbank call money rates and the bond-market rates respectively. The direkt Granger test and a modified Hsiao test are used and a possible structural brake is taken into account. The results did not support the hypothesis that the Bundesbank influences the market interest rates with the rates for repurchase agreements but indicate that the interbank call money rates have a strong impact on the interest rate fixing of the Bundesbank.

scholarly journals The impact of Musharakah financing on the monetary policy in the Islamic economy

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (3/4) ◽  
pp. 139-152
Author(s):  
Hatem Adela
Keyword(s):  
Economic Theory ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Methodological Framework ◽  
Mathematical Methods ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Return Rates ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This paper aims to contribute to formulating the methodological framework for a paradigm of Islamic economics, using the development of the conventional economics, theoretical and mathematical methods. Design/methodology/approach The study based on the inductive and mathematical methods to contribute to economic theory within the methodological framework for Islamic Economics, by using the return rate of Musharakah rather than the interest rate in influence the economic activity and monetary policy. Findings Via replacement, the concept of the interest rate by the return rates of Musharakah. It concludes that the central bank can control the monetary policy, economic activity and the efficient allocation of resources by using the return rates of Musharakah through the framework of Islamic economy. Practical/implications The study is a contribution to formulate the methodological framework for a paradigm of Islamic economics, where it investigates the impact of return rates of Musharakah on the money market and monetary policy, by the mathematical methods used in the conventional economy. Also, the study illustrates the importance of further studies that examine the methodological framework for Islamic Economics. Originality/value The study aims to contribute to formulating the Islamic economic theory, through the return rate of Musharakah financing instead of the interest rate, and its effectiveness of the monetary policy. As well as reformulating the concepts of the investment function, the present value and the marginal efficiency rate of investment according to the Islamic economy approach.

scholarly journals The Impact of Interest Rate Ceilings on Microfinance Industry

2015 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 10
Author(s):  
Ali Saleh Alshebami ◽  
D. M. Khandare
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Research Subject ◽  
Access To Credit ◽  
The Poor ◽  
Good Intention ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
The Impact

<p>Imposing ceilings on the interest rate has recently become one of the new hottest topics in microfinance industry; various debates have been discussing this issue to know the effect of interest rate ceilings on the supply of credit in particular and on microfinance industry in general. However in spite of the good intention behind these ceilings, there was no absolute result stating that ceilings have really contributed to the improvement or protection of the poor clients, indeed, these ceilings have hurt those low income people instead of helping them, due to these ceilings most of MFIs left the market or reduced their scale due to the inability to continue operating with low interest rate leaving the very poor clients without access to credit. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to review the impact of imposing such ceilings on the interest rates and to find out what alterative solutions can be employed as substitutes for them. This paper is entirely based on the secondary data collected from various records related to microfinance such as microfinance books, official websites and reports, published papers, and other sources related to the research subject.</p>

scholarly journals ENTERPRISE FINANCING BY MEANS OF CORPORATE BONDS TOOLKIT

2017 ◽  
pp. 57-67
Author(s):  
Mykola Stetsko
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Corporate Bonds ◽  
Synthesis Method ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Market Liquidity ◽  
Corporate Bond ◽  
Systematic Risks

Introduction. In contrast to the markets of developed countries, forming characteristic risk premium investment bonds in emerging markets, is that the greatest effect on the risk premium on bonds in countries such factor provides market liquidity in general and specific securities in particular. The second most significant factor influencing the risk premium is the risk of changing interest rates. The risk of default of issuers in such countries is also quite high, but the component of creditworthiness is less significant factor in the combination of systematic risks. Due to low sovereign ratings of Ukraine, the credit ratings of bonds of all domestic issuers have a speculative level. Owing to this fact, all of them can be classified as highly risky and, accordingly, highly profitable (HighYield Bonds). Purpose. The aim of the article is to reduce deficits in the scientific and methodological provision of the use of corporate bonds instruments on the basis of determining the determinants of the premium for the risk of investing in them. Method (methodology). To achieve the goal and solve the problems, the following methods have been used: method of analysis and synthesis, method of comparison and generalization; method of empirical research and factor analysis; method of system approach and strategy. Results. The research of the determinants of the risk premium is important, first of all, from the point of view of substantiating the technologies of reducing the cost of enterprises to capital. The key causes of underdevelopment of the domestic corporate bond market have been determined. We have identified factors that influence the spread of profitability and the value of bonds. They are the risk of default of the issuer and the potential of the enterprise development (credit component); base interest rate and long-term interest rates on the financial market (interest rate component); liquidity of the capital market (component of liquidity); the level of inflation and the development of economic conditions; information risks. It has been determined that in order to reduce the risk of investments in corporate bonds, it is necessary to implement at the regulatory level a set of measures to reduce overhead costs and increase the reliability of investments. The introduction of a safety covenant system can be defrined as one of such measures.

scholarly journals Safe Assets, Liquidity, and Monetary Policy

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 182-227 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pierpaolo Benigno ◽  
Salvatore Nisticò
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Risk Sharing ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Multiple Assets ◽  
Interest Rate Spreads ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Liquidity Shock ◽  
Deep Recession

This paper studies monetary policy in models where multiple assets have different liquidity properties: safe and “pseudo-safe” assets coexist. A shock worsening the liquidity properties of the pseudo-safe assets raises interest rate spreads and can cause a deep recession-cum-deflation. Expanding the central bank’s balance sheet fills the shortage of safe assets and counteracts the recession. Lowering the interest rate on reserves insulates market interest rates from the liquidity shock and improves risk sharing between borrowers and savers. (JEL E31, E32, E43, E44, E52)

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