Sovereign Credit Quality and Violations of the Law of One Price

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jacob Boudoukh ◽  
Jordan Brooks ◽  
Matthew Richardson ◽  
Zhikai Xu

Abstract It is well-documented that government bonds with almost identical cash flows can trade at different prices. This paper analyzes the cross-section of bond spreads across developed European countries and documents a novel result. While a measure of the convenience yield of government bonds helps explain these spreads, it cannot explain the behavior of bond spreads in periods of widening credit risk. The paper documents bond spreads between new and old issues tighten for low quality sovereigns. In other words, the newer more liquid bonds become cheaper, not more expensive, relative to their older counterparts. We offer an explanation based on price pressure and provide empirical support using data on net flows of investors in sovereign bonds.

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 588-613 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Kadir Yildirim ◽  
Caroline M. Lancaster

AbstractIslamist parties' electoral performance is a hotly debated question. Two arguments dominate the literature in terms of Islamist parties' performance in democratic elections. The conventional argument has been the “one man, one vote, one time” hypothesis. More recently, Kurzman and Naqvi challenge this argument and show that Islamists tend to lose in free elections rather than win them. We argue that existing arguments fall short. Specifically, we theorize that moderateness of Islamist platform plays a key role in increasing the popularity of these parties and leads to higher levels of electoral support. Using data collected by Kurzman and Naqvi, we test our hypothesis, controlling for political platform and political economic factors in a quantitative analysis. We find that there is empirical support for our theory. Islamist parties' support level is positively associated with moderateness; however, this positive effect of moderation is also conditioned by economic openness.


Author(s):  
Dilaysu Cinar

Risk can be defined as uncertainty about the events that will occur in the future. Risks are encountered in all areas of life, and become more important when it comes to financial markets. Risk in financial markets is defined as investment securities. If the investment vehicle is government bonds or treasury bills, they are considered to be free of risk. Because of the sudden changes in exchange rates in the process of globalization or fluctuations in interest rates influencing the cash flows of companies, most companies consider hedging as a viable part of the globalization strategy. Risk management policies to ease problems and disasters, which may arise from the use of instruments. The stock market serves as a bridge between economic activity and finance under favor of functions such as reducing the risk of investment, and it meets the capital needs for companies. For this reason, the development of stock markets plays an important role for the global economy and finance. Thus, the aim of this chapter is to introduce financial risks and their effect on common stocks.


2020 ◽  
Vol 35 (12) ◽  
pp. 1983-1995 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hang Lee ◽  
Yung-Chang Hsiao ◽  
Chung-Jen Chen ◽  
Ruey-Shan Guo

Purpose This study aims to examine the relationship between organizational capacity, slack resource, platform strategic choice and firm performance. It also tackles the endogenous issues regarding the strategic choice of platform types. Design/methodology/approach This study uses Heckman’s two-stage procedures to examine the relationship between the variables. The sample in this study comes from Compustat annual company and segment files. The sample used in the main analysis consists of 252 individual corporations globally and 3,528 firm-year observations from 2004–2017. Findings The empirical results suggest that: (1) firms are more likely to develop physical platforms than virtual platforms when they possess higher levels of available slack, potential slack, research and development (R&D) capacity and marketing capacity; (2) in general, firms developing physical platforms perform better than firms developing virtual platforms after the endogeneity bias are controlled; and (3) firms that choose to develop physical platforms perform better than if they had chosen to develop virtual platforms. Research limitations/implications This study contributes to the platform research literature by proposing the endogenous role of platform type choice in firm performance in the context of the retail industry. Prior conceptual and theoretical platform studies have seldom focused on the retail industry through a strategic choice perspective. Furthermore, one of the contributions of this study is the derivation of empirical support for the research’s prediction using data from actual firms carried out by global physical and virtual platform companies. This study also presents many opportunities for further explorations on the relationship between firm strategic choice and firm performance in the context of platform retail industry. Practical implications The findings of this study suggest that firms must realize that their performance is not necessarily affected by these platform type choice determinants in terms of potential slack, available slack, R&D capacity and marketing capacity. By contrast, they should pay more attention to developing physical platforms if it is possible. The study findings indicate that although virtual platforms have grown rapidly because of the development of technology, firm performance is at all times superior when firms choose to develop physical platforms. Originality/value Prior platform studies have focused on the topic of network structure, platform architecture, pricing strategy, platform leadership and platform design and governance within the context of video game industry, software industry, hardware industry and telecommunications industry. Seldom of them focus on other industries through a strategic choice perspective. Furthermore, one of the contributions of this study is the derivation of empirical support for the research’s prediction using data from actual firms carried out by global physical and virtual platform companies.


2020 ◽  
Vol 25 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher D. O’Brien

Abstract This paper is motivated by The Pensions Regulator (TPR)’s review of its Code of Practice on funding for defined benefit schemes and aims to suggest how trustees and regulators should monitor the extent to which scheme assets are adequate to cover liabilities. It concludes that current practice is inadequate and needs to change. A review is carried out of papers on not only this subject but also (to collect ideas rather than automatically apply them to pensions solvency valuations) pensions and insurance accounting and regulation. Current practice is “scheme-specific funding” which permits discretion on choice of discount rates and other assumptions; the paper is concerned that this can lead to bias, and that trends in a scheme’s solvency can be obscured by changing assumptions. This also leads to the funding ratio communicated to scheme members having little meaning. The paper suggests that regulators should require a valuation that is based on sound principles, objective, fair, neutral, transparent and feasible. A prescribed methodology would replace discretion. It concludes that the benefits to be valued are those arising on discontinuance of the scheme, without allowing for future salary-related benefit increases, which are felt to no longer be a constructive obligation of employers. The valuation should, it is suggested, use market values of assets, which is largely current practice. Liabilities should reflect the trustees fulfilling their liabilities, rather than transferring them to an insurer (which may introduce artificialities). The discount rate should follow the “matching” approach, being a market-consistent risk-free rate: this is consistent with several papers to the profession in recent years. It avoids the problems of the “budgeting” approach, where the discount rate is based on the expected return on assets – this can be used to help set contribution levels but is not suitable for determining the value of liabilities, which depends on salary, service, longevity, etc and (very largely) not on the assets held. In principle, the liability value can be adjusted for illiquidity. Credit risk of the employer should not be allowed for. Liabilities should reflect the (probability-weighted) expected value of future cash flows and should not be increased by prudent margins or risk margins (which would lead to a non-neutral figure). Risk disclosures are needed to understand and manage risks. The resulting funding ratio is a consistent measure, to be disclosed to members, which can be used to manage the scheme, and by regulators as the basis for requiring action. Scheme-specific management using data such as the employer covenant means that immediate action to ensure 100% solvency on the proposed basis would not necessarily be appropriate. The author encourages the profession to advise TPR on the above lines.


2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (6) ◽  
pp. 593-609
Author(s):  
Andrés Barge-Gil ◽  
Alfredo Garcia-Hiernaux

Kelly staking has been proven to maximize long-term bankroll growth of bettors with positive expected yield (profitable bettors). However, it demands for an estimation of the true probabilities for each event. Thus, many sport tipsters opt for simpler flat ( unit-loss) or unit-win staking plans. We analyze under which assumptions these strategies correspond to the Kelly method and propose a different staking plan, unit-impact, under the hypothesis that it fits better with Kelly’s. We test our predictions using data of professional tipsters from the betting database pyckio.com. Results show empirical support for our hypothesis.


2020 ◽  
Vol 64 (4) ◽  
pp. 845-856
Author(s):  
Omer Zarpli

Abstract How does regime type affect the likelihood of negotiated settlements that end civil conflicts? A limited number of previous studies have offered divergent theories and mixed findings about whether democracy is an asset or a liability. I draw these disparate findings together and present a novel theory on why leaders under fully democratic and autocratic regimes may have a particularly difficult time in peacemaking, and how leaders in anocratic (hybrid) regimes are more likely to be successful in reaching negotiated settlements. Thus, I hypothesize that the relationship between regime type and the likelihood of conflict-resolution is inverted U-shaped. I test this hypothesis using data on all internal conflicts between 1946 and 2014, and find empirical support. The findings suggest that even if anocracies are more prone to the outbreak of civil wars as has been proposed by previous studies, they are also better at settling these conflicts.


2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 180
Author(s):  
Dan Saar ◽  
Yossi Yagil

In this study, we predict changes in specific segments of economic growth including the unemployment rate, the housing prices and changes in personal consumption by employing corporate and government bonds. Our hypothesis is that the use of yield curves of corporate bonds will improve the predictions over previous models that used only the yield curves of government bonds. Our results support that contention. We find that corporate bonds’ spreads actually help predicting the changes in both the unemployment rate and housing prices. We also find a significant positive relationship between bond spreads and future changes in personal consumption levels, but the results are weaker than in the other two segments. One additional finding worth noting is that government bonds are better predictors for the long-term, whereas corporate bonds are better indicators for the short-term.


2018 ◽  
Vol 63 (05) ◽  
pp. 1367-1384
Author(s):  
MOHAMED ARIFF ◽  
ALIREZA ZAREI

We approach a significant research topic in international economics by restating the test procedures in a novel manner consistent with monetary theorems with controls using monetary variables and applying an appropriate econometric methodology to re-examine three aspects of exchange rate behavior. (i) Does the inflation (price) factor affect Nominal Exchange Rate (NER)? (ii) Do relative interest rates between countries affect a country’s exchange rate? (iii) Do the price and interest rate effects hold if controls for non-parity factors are embedded in tests? The data series for this study are taken over 55 years covering pre-and-post-Bretton Woods era: a second test was done over the post-Bretton Woods period only using 30 years of data. Also, the traditional factors of parity conditions are extended in this research to take into account recently theorized and tested non-parity factors related to cash flows. The resulting evidence affirms clearly that both the parity factors (prices and interest rates) and the non-parity factors affect exchange rates significantly over the long run, also over the 30-year period. In our view, these findings extend our knowledge of how currency behavior is consistent with parity and non-parity theorems.


2015 ◽  
Vol 44 (1) ◽  
pp. 59-87
Author(s):  
Yeonjeong Ha ◽  
Bong Soo Lee ◽  
Miyoun Paek ◽  
Kwangsoo Ko

2015 ◽  
Vol 282 (1802) ◽  
pp. 20141570 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ailene MacPherson ◽  
Paul A. Hohenlohe ◽  
Scott L. Nuismer

All species are locked in a continual struggle to adapt to local ecological conditions. In cases where species fail to locally adapt, they face reduced population growth rates, or even local extinction. Traditional explanations for limited local adaptation focus on maladaptive gene flow or homogeneous environmental conditions. These classical explanations have, however, failed to explain variation in the magnitude of local adaptation observed across taxa. Here we show that variable levels of local adaptation are better explained by trait dimensionality. First, we develop and analyse mathematical models that predict levels of local adaptation will increase with the number of traits experiencing spatially variable selection. Next, we test this prediction by estimating the relationship between dimensionality and local adaptation using data from 35 published reciprocal transplant studies. This analysis reveals a strong correlation between dimensionality and degree of local adaptation, and thus provides empirical support for the predictions of our model.


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