scholarly journals Hyperendemicity associated with increased dengue burden

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (182) ◽  
pp. 20210565
Author(s):  
Jue Tao Lim ◽  
Borame Sue Dickens ◽  
Ken Wei Tan ◽  
Joel Ruihan Koo ◽  
Annabel Seah ◽  
...  

Over 105 million dengue infections are estimated to occur annually. Understanding the disease dynamics of dengue is often difficult due to multiple strains circulating within a population. Interactions between dengue serotype dynamics may result in complex cross-immunity dynamics at the population level and create difficulties in terms of formulating intervention strategies for the disease. In this study, a nationally representative 16-year time series with over 43 000 serotyped dengue infections was used to infer the long-run effects of between and within strain interactions and their impacts on past outbreaks. We used a novel identification strategy incorporating sign-identified Bayesian vector autoregressions, using structural impulse responses, historical decompositions and counterfactual analysis to conduct inference on dengue dynamics post-estimation. We found that on the population level: (i) across-serotype interactions on the population level were highly persistent, with a one time increase in any other serotype associated with long run decreases in the serotype of interest (range: 0.5–2.5 years) and (ii) over 38.7% of dengue cases of any serotype were associated with across-serotype interactions. The findings in this paper will substantially impact public health policy interventions with respect to dengue.

Author(s):  
Irene Man ◽  
Simopekka Vänskä ◽  
Matti Lehtinen ◽  
Johannes A Bogaards

Abstract Background Although human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines are highly efficacious in protecting against HPV infections and related diseases, vaccination may trigger replacement by nontargeted genotypes if these compete with the vaccine-targeted types. HPV genotype replacement has been deemed unlikely, based on the lack of systematic increases in the prevalence of nonvaccine-type (NVT) infection in the first decade after vaccination, and on the presence of cross-protection for some NVTs. Methods To investigate whether type replacement can be inferred from early postvaccination surveillance, we constructed a transmission model in which a vaccine type and an NVT compete through infection-induced cross-immunity. We simulated scenarios of different levels of cross-immunity and vaccine-induced cross-protection to the NVT. We validated whether commonly used measures correctly indicate type replacement in the long run. Results Type replacement is a trade-off between cross-immunity and cross-protection; cross-immunity leads to type replacement unless cross-protection is strong enough. With weak cross-protection, NVT prevalence may initially decrease before rebounding into type replacement, exhibiting a honeymoon period. Importantly, vaccine effectiveness for NVTs is inadequate for indicating type replacement. Conclusions Although postvaccination surveillance thus far is reassuring, it is still too early to preclude type replacement. Monitoring of NVTs remains pivotal in gauging population-level impacts of HPV vaccination.


2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (08) ◽  
pp. 20592-21600
Author(s):  
Gbadebo Salako ◽  
Adejumo Musibau Ojo ◽  
Jaji Ayobami Francis

This study empirically investigates the effects of macroeconomic disequilibrium on educational development in Nigeria. The study employed time series data between 1980 and 2017. Autoregressive Distributed Lag method of estimation was employed. The result revealed that the variables stationarity test were mixed between the first difference I(I) and level I(0). The cointegration result shows that there exist long run relationship between the variables. The result revealed that Balance of payment, Poverty, Debt rate inflation and unemployment exhibited negative relationship with educational development. The estimation result showed that all explanatory variables account for 88% variation of educational development in Nigeria. It is therefore recommended that government should fast track policies that can stabilize inflation and exchange rate in the country. Also, Policies must be formulated to reduce poverty and unemployment.


2021 ◽  
pp. 088626052098039
Author(s):  
Valeria Skafida ◽  
Fiona Morrison ◽  
John Devaney

Domestic abuse is a pernicious societal issue that has both short- and long-term consequences for those who are victimized. Research points to motherhood being linked to women’s victimization, with pregnancy being a particular point of risk. Across UK jurisdictions, new legislation aims to extend the criminalization of domestic abuse to include coercive control. Less clear is the relationship between mothers’ victimization of different “types” of abuse and other factors such as age, socioeconomic status, and level of education. The article makes an original contribution to knowledge by addressing these limitations of the existing literature. Using nationally representative data from a Scottish longitudinal survey ( N = 3,633) into children’s development this article investigates the social stratification of mothers’ exposure to different types of abuse, including coercive control, physical abuse, and threats. Overall, 14% of mothers report experiencing any type of domestic abuse since the birth of the study child (age 6), of which 7% experienced physical abuse. Compared to mothers in the highest income households, mothers in the lowest income quintile were far more likely to experience any form of abuse (Logistic Regression, OR = 3.55), more likely to have experienced more types of abuse and to have experienced these more often ( OR = 5.54). Age had a protective effect, with mothers aged 20 or younger at most risk of abuse ( OR = 2.60 compared to mothers aged 40+). Interaction effects between age and income suggested that an intersectional lens may help explain the cumulative layers of difficulty which young mothers on low incomes may find themselves in when it comes to abusive partners. The pattern of social stratification remained the same when comparing different types of abuse. Mothers of boys were more likely to experience abuse, and to experience more types of abuse, more often. We reflect on how these findings could inform existing policy interventions.


2019 ◽  
Vol 70 (10) ◽  
pp. 3622-3626
Author(s):  
Corina Ilinca ◽  
Marian Preda ◽  
Stefania Matei ◽  
Stephen J. Cutler ◽  
Oana Tautu ◽  
...  

Salt intake is one of the important predictors of hypertension, a widespread chronic disease among adults. Much remains to be known about its causes, especially in the Romanian context, where there is a scarcity of analyses on this particular topic. Its predictors are relevant for public policy in order to evaluate what strategy should be adopted given actual levels of salt intake and the way people think about their levels of salt intake. Our analyses focus on actual and perceived salt intake. Data for this analysis come from the SEPHAR project, gathered in 2016 (wave 3), a nationally representative sample of Romanians. After noting a major discrepancy between perceived and actual levels of salt intake, we used two regressions with actual and perceived salt intake as dependent variables and three types of factors as independent variables: socio-demographic (age, gender, region, type of locality, education), lifestyle (fat diet, alcohol consumption, active lifestyle, and smoking) and related diseases (obesity and diabetes). Results show Romanians have similar levels of salt intake perceptions independently of the characteristics considered, except fat diet and diabetes, and similar levels of actual salt intake except age and gender, even though previous research shows that there are differences between individuals across these characteristics when it comes to considering hypertension as a dependent variable. We conclude by noting policy interventions regarding salt intake based on the results of this research, especially the need to update the current Romanian TV campaign to reduce salt intake or similar campaigns from other countries.


2021 ◽  
Vol 26 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. e72-e73
Author(s):  
Sarah Rogers ◽  
Stephen Freedman ◽  
Terry Klassen ◽  
Brett Burstein

Abstract Primary Subject area Emergency Medicine - Paediatric Background Acute gastroenteritis (AGE) is among the most common illnesses for which children are evaluated in the Emergency Department (ED). Among children with AGE, ondansetron has been shown to reduce vomiting, intravenous (IV) fluid administration and hospitalizations when administered in the ED. Objectives To determine whether increasing ondansetron administration is associated with a concomitant decline in IV rehydration and hospitalization among children presenting with AGE in a broad, nationally representative ED sample. Design/Methods This was a cross-sectional analysis of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey (NHAMCS) database from 2006 to 2015. Children < 18 years old with a discharge diagnosis of AGE were included for analysis. Survey weighting procedures were applied to generate population-level estimates and to perform multivariable logistic regression to identify factors associated with ondansetron administration. Results There were an estimated 15.1 million (95% CI 13.5-16.7) visits for AGE during the 10-year study period. AGE visits increased as a proportion of all pediatric ED visits over time (4.6% in 2006, 5.7% in 2015; p-trend=0.013). The mean patient age was 4.7 (95% CI 4.5-5.0) years, and most visits were to non-teaching (86.6%, 95% CI 83.3-89.3%) and non-pediatric (83.4%, 95% CI 78.2-87.5%) hospitals. The proportion of patients receiving ondansetron increased over time (11.8% in 2006, 62.5% in 2015; p-trend < 0 .001), both in the ED (10.6% in 2006, 55.5% in 2015; p-trend < 0 .001) and as outpatient prescriptions (3.3% in 2006, 45.3% in 2015; p-trend < 0 .001). Over the same period, there was no change in hospitalizations (2.9% overall, 95% CI 2.2-3.7%; p-trend=0.144). IV hydration for AGE decreased (31.8% in 2006, 24.9% in 2015; p-trend < 0 .048), as did IV fluid administration across all other pediatric ED visits (10.3% in 2006, 7.8% in 2015; p-trend < 0 .023). After adjustment for patient- and hospital-level factors, the odds ratio for IV rehydration among children with AGE was 0.97 (95% CI 0.92-1.01). Multivariable analysis found younger age (aOR 0.94, 95% CI 1.04-1.09), Medicaid/Medicare insurance (aOR 0.74; 95% CI 0.57-0.97), and presentation to a teaching hospital (aOR 0.74; 95% CI 0.54-0.99) were inversely associated with ondansetron administration. Other antiemetics most commonly used were promethazine (7.4%, 95% CI 5.9-9.2%), metoclopramide (1.8%, 95% CI 1.3-2.5%) and trimethobenzamide (1.5%, 95% CI 1.1-2.1%). Antimotility agents, H2-receptor blockers, and probiotics were infrequently used. Conclusion Both ED and outpatient prescribing of ondansetron for children with AGE increased; however, no concomitant decline was observed in hospitalizations or IV rehydration. Guidelines and quality improvement efforts are needed to target ondansetron administration to children most likely to benefit to minimize adverse events and costs associated with overuse.


Author(s):  
HENRY E. HALE

When international conflict causes an authoritarian leader’s popularity to soar, extant theories lead us to treat such “rallying” as sincere preference change, the product of surging patriotism or cowed media. This study advances a theory of less-than-fully sincere rallying more appropriate for nondemocratic settings, characterizing it as at least partly reflecting cascading dissembling driven by social desirability concerns. The identification strategy combines a rare nationally representative rally-spanning panel survey with a list experiment and econometric analysis. This establishes that three quarters of those who rallied to Putin after Russia annexed Crimea were engaging in at least some form of dissembling and that this rallying developed as a rapid cascade, with social media joining television in fueling perceptions this was socially desirable.


Circulation ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 141 (Suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Natalie Cameron ◽  
Megan McCabe ◽  
Lucia Petito ◽  
Norrina B Allen ◽  
Mercedes R Carnethon ◽  
...  

Introduction: Estimating effects of population-level increases in obesity on diabetes has important implications for public health policy. Therefore, we used the population attributable fraction (PAF) to quantify trends in the burden of obesity on incident diabetes in key sex and race/ethnicity subgroups over time. Hypothesis: PAFs for obesity attributable incident diabetes will be greatest for women, differ by race/ethnicity and increase over time. Methods: Using data from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA), we estimated unadjusted and adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of obesity on incident diabetes mellitus (DM). We included non-Hispanic White (NHW), non-Hispanic Black (NHB) and Hispanic-Mexican (MA) MESA participants with available data on body mass index and key covariates and without DM at baseline. Next, we estimated the prevalence of obesity in four pooled groups of NHANES survey cycles from 2001-2016 with similar characteristics to MESA participants (age 45-80 years, NHW, NHB, and MA without cardiovascular disease). Lastly, we combined estimates from MESA and NHANES to quantify unadjusted and adjusted PAFs (adjusted for age, income, education, physical activity and diet). Leveraging the objective longitudinal assessment of incident DM in MESA and a nationally representative sample of NHANES, we estimated broadly generalizable PAF estimates over time. Results: Of 3869 MESA participants, mean age was 61 (± 10) years with 47% men, 56% NHW, 31% NHB, and 13% MA. Incidence of DM was 11% with overall adjusted HR of 2.75 (95% CI 2.26, 3.34) for obesity. Prevalence of obesity increased from 34% (32, 37) in 2001-2004 to 41% (39, 44) in 2013-2016. Overall adjusted PAFs ranged from 0.23 to 0.52 over the study period (TABLE), with greatest estimates in NHW women. Conclusions: In conclusion, over time, the proportion of diabetes due to obesity has increased across multiple subgroups of the population, further highlighting the health burden of obesity in the population.


2019 ◽  
Vol 31 (2) ◽  
pp. 243-259
Author(s):  
Valentina La Porta ◽  
Matteo Migheli

Purpose This paper aims to study the effects of innovation on the profitability of large wineries. In particular, organic growth is evaluated versus external growth. Design/methodology/approach Data from balance sheets over more than a decade are used. The analysis is limited to large Italian wineries to include firms that constantly invest in R&D in the sample. The analysis focuses on 25 Italian wineries observed over eight years. Panel data estimation is used to analyse these data. Findings The paper shows that investments in R&D increase the profitability of innovative wineries in the long run but decrease it in the short run. Moreover, because of financial constraints, some wineries may invest too few resources in R&D. Research limitations/implications The main limitation is that the focus is restricted to large wine producers, while many small producers that do not generally invest in R&D exist in the market. The practical implication is that governments should support R&D investments of wineries. Originality/value The main contributions are to show empirically the effects of investing in R&D on the profitability of large wineries and to highlight the possible presence of severe financial constraints, which require policy interventions.


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