scholarly journals Fluctuations in annual climatic extremes are associated with reproductive variation in resident mountain chickadees

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (5) ◽  
pp. 171604 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dovid Y. Kozlovsky ◽  
Carrie L. Branch ◽  
Angela M. Pitera ◽  
Vladimir V. Pravosudov
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Reproductive Success ◽  
Sierra Nevada ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Full Range ◽  
Elevation Gradient ◽  
High Elevation ◽  
Climatic Extremes ◽  
Extreme Climate ◽  
Mountain Chickadees

Mounting evidence suggests that we are experiencing rapidly accelerating global climate change. Understanding how climate change may affect life is critical to identifying species and populations that are vulnerable. Most current research focuses on investigating how organisms may respond to gradual warming, but another effect of climate change is extreme annual variation in precipitation associated with alternations between drought and unusually heavy precipitation, like that exhibited in the western regions of North America. Understanding climate change effects on animal reproductive behaviour is especially important, because it directly impacts population persistence. Here, we present data on reproduction in nest-box breeding, resident mountain chickadees inhabiting high and low elevations in the Sierra Nevada across 5 years. These 5 years of data represent the full range of climatic variation from the largest drought in five centuries to one of the heaviest snow years on record. There were significant differences in most reproductive characteristics associated with variation in climate. Both climate extremes were negatively associated with reproductive success at high and low elevations, but low-elevation chickadees had worse reproductive success in the largest drought year while high-elevation chickadees had worse reproductive success in the heaviest snow year. Considering that the frequency of extreme climate swings between drought and snow is predicted to increase, such swings may have negative effects on chickadee populations across the entire elevation gradient, as climatic extremes should favour different adaptations. Alternatively, it is possible that climate fluctuations might favour preserving genetic variation allowing for higher resilience. It is too early to make specific predictions regarding how increased frequency of extreme climate fluctuation may impact chickadees; however, our data suggest that even the most common species may be susceptible.

Climate change will impact the protective effect of forests against rockfall

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christine Moos ◽  
Antoine Guisan ◽  
Randin Christophe ◽  
Lischke Heike
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Protective Effect ◽  
Natural Disturbance ◽  
High Elevation ◽  
Swiss Alps ◽  
Protective Capacity ◽  
Forest Modelling ◽  
Mountain Areas ◽  
Protective Function ◽  
Extreme Climate

<p>In mountain areas, forests play a crucial role in protecting people and assets from natural hazards, such as rockfall. Their protective effect is strongly influenced by their structure and state, which are expected to be affected by climate change. More frequent drought events, but also changing natural disturbance regimes, may lead to abrupt diebacks of contemporary species followed by a slow reforestation. In this study, we investigated how a changing climate can affect the protective capacity of mountain forests against rockfall. We therefore combined dynamic forest modelling with a detailed rockfall risk analysis at three case study sites in the Western Swiss Alps. Future forest development was simulated for a moderate and an extreme climate scenario for 200 years with the dynamic forest model TreeMig (Lischke et al., 2006). We then calculated rockfall risk for different forest states based on three-dimensional rockfall simulations with RockyFor3D (Dorren 2016). First results indicate that both at high elevation near the tree line (1500-2200 m a.s.l.) as well as at lower elevations (500-1000 m a.s.l.), increasing drought can lead to diebacks of trees and a reduction of tree density and diameters resulting in a substantial loss of the protective function. Depending on the speed of migration of other, more drought tolerant species, this loss can be partially compensated, but a permanent reduction of the protective effect is to be expected at least for an extreme climate scneario due to a reduced basal area of the forest.</p>

scholarly journals Selection of representative GCM scenarios preserving uncertainties

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 641-651 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jae-Kyoung Lee ◽  
Young-Oh Kim
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Full Range ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Total Uncertainty ◽  
New Approach ◽  
South Korean ◽  
Skill Scores

Abstract Climate change studies usually include the use of many projections, and selecting an essential number of projections is very important, because using all Global Climate Model (GCM) scenarios is impossible in practice. Furthermore, the climate change impact assessment is often sensitive to the choice of GCM scenarios. This study suggests that selecting the best-performing scenarios based on a historical period should be avoided in nonstationary cases like climate change, and then proposes a new approach that can preserve the uncertainty, that all scenarios contain. The new approach groups all GCM scenarios into several clusters, and then selects a single representative scenario among member scenarios of each cluster, based on their skill scores. The proposed approach is termed ‘selecting the principal scenarios’, and applied to select five principal GCM scenarios for the South Korean Peninsula, among 17 GCM scenarios of the 20C3M emission scenario. The uncertainty preservation is measured with the maximum entropy theory. The case study presents that the principal scenarios preserve the full range of total uncertainty, compared to less than 65% for the best scenarios confirming that preserving uncertainty with the principal scenarios is more adequate, than selecting the best-performed scenarios, in climate change studies.

CHANGE: A Place-Based Curriculum for Understanding Climate Change at Storm Peak Laboratory, Colorado

2011 ◽  
Vol 92 (7) ◽  
pp. 909-918 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Gannet Hallar ◽  
Ian B. McCubbin ◽  
Jennifer M. Wright
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Middle School ◽  
Middle School Students ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Climate Science ◽  
High Elevation ◽  
School Students ◽  
Independent Evaluation ◽  
Hands On ◽  
Classroom Lesson

Curriculum in High Altitude Environments for Teaching Global Climate Change Education (CHANGE) uses place-based education to teach middle school students about meteorology and climate as a basis to improve climate science literacy. The curriculum provides in-school and out-of-school instruction and connects students with scientists at Storm Peak Laboratory, a high-elevation atmospheric research facility above Steamboat Springs, Colorado. Following an initial 2-h classroom lesson, students record their own measurements of temperature, pressure, wind speed, and particle concentrations while traveling up the mountain to Storm Peak Laboratory. After returning to the classroom, students graph these data and analyze their results. Evaluation of this program showed that students improved their knowledge of key concepts pertaining to climate literacy. The hands-on, place-based format of CHANGE can be used as a model for middle school students in alpine communities to teach lessons in weather and climate and can be further refined by improved lesson plans, increased feedback to students, and an independent evaluation.

Holocene vegetation and climate change recorded in alpine bog sediments from the Borreguiles de la Virgen, Sierra Nevada, southern Spain

2012 ◽  
Vol 77 (1) ◽  
pp. 44-53 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gonzalo Jiménez-Moreno ◽  
R. Scott Anderson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Magnetic Susceptibility ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Sierra Nevada ◽  
High Elevation ◽  
High Impact ◽  
Southern Spain ◽  
Pollen Record ◽  
Arboreal Pollen ◽  
Vegetation And Climate

High-resolution pollen and magnetic susceptibility (MS) analyses have been carried out on a sediment core taken from a high-elevation alpine bog area located in Sierra Nevada, southern Spain. The earliest part of the record, from 8200 to about 7000 cal yr BP, is characterized by the highest abundance of arboreal pollen andPediastrum, indicating the warmest and wettest conditions in the area at that time. The pollen record shows a progressive aridification since 7000 cal yr BP that occurred in two steps, first shown by a decrease inPinus, replaced by Poaceae from 7000 to 4600 cal yr BP and then by Cyperaceae,Artemisiaand Amaranthaceae from 4600 to 1200 cal yr BP.Pediastrumalso decreased progressively and totally disappeared at ca. 3000 yr ago. The progressive aridification is punctuated by periodically enhanced drought at ca. 6500, 5200 and 4000 cal yr BP that coincide in timing and duration with well-known dry events in the Mediterranean and other areas. Since 1200 cal yr BP, several changes are observed in the vegetation that probably indicate the high-impact of humans in the Sierra Nevada, with pasturing leading to nutrient enrichment and eutrophication of the bog,Pinusreforestation andOleacultivation at lower elevations.

scholarly journals Temporal and Spatial Characteristics of Precipitation and Temperature in Punjab, Pakistan

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 1916 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nawaz ◽  
Li ◽  
Chen ◽  
Guo ◽  
Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climatic Variability ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Elevation Gradient ◽  
High Elevation ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Moderate Increase ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Lower Elevation ◽  
Precipitation And Temperature

Identifying the changes in precipitation and temperature at a regional scale is of great importance for the quantification of climate change. This research investigates the changes in precipitation and surface air temperature indices in the seven irrigation zones of Punjab Province during the last 50 years; this province is a very important region in Pakistan in terms of agriculture and irrigated farming. The reliability of the data was examined using double mass curve and autocorrelation analysis. The magnitude and significance of the precipitation and temperature were visualized by various statistical methods. The stations’ trends were spatially distributed to better understand climatic variability across the elevation gradient of the study region. The results showed a significant warming trend in annual Tmin (minimum temperature) and Tmean (mean temperature) in different irrigation zones. However, Tmax (maximum temperature) had insignificant variations except in the high elevation Thal zone. Moreover, the rate of Tmin increased faster than that of Tmax, resulting in a reduction in the diurnal temperature range (DTR). On a seasonal scale, warming was more pronounced during spring, followed by that in winter and autumn. However, the summer season exhibited insignificant negative trends in most of the zones and gauges, except in the higher-altitude Thal zone. Overall, Bahawalpur and Faisalabad are the zones most vulnerable to warming annually and in the spring, respectively. Furthermore, the elevation-dependent trend (EDT) indicated larger increments in Tmax for higher-elevation (above 500 m a.s.l.) stations, compared to the lower-elevation ones, on both annual and seasonal scales. In contrast, the Tmin showed opposite trends at higher- and lower-elevation stations, while a moderate increase was witnessed in Tmean trends from lower to higher altitude over the study region. An increasing trend in DTR was observed at higher elevation, while a decreasing trend was noticed at the lower-elevation stations. The analysis of precipitation data indicated wide variability over the entire region during the study period. Most previous studies reported no change or a decreasing trend in precipitation in this region. Conversely, our findings indicated the cumulative increase in annual and autumn precipitation amounts at zonal and regional level. However, EDT analysis identified the decrease in precipitation amounts at higher elevation (above 1000 m a.s.l.) and increase at the lower-elevation stations. Overall, our findings revealed unprecedented evidence of regional climate change from the perspectives of seasonal warming and variations in precipitation and temperature extremes (Tmax and Tmin) particularly at higher-elevation sites, resulting in a variability of the DTR, which could have a significant influence on water resources and on the phenology of vegetation and crops at zonal and station level in Punjab.

scholarly journals Fast shrinkage of tropical glaciers in Colombia

2006 ◽  
Vol 43 ◽  
pp. 194-201 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jorge Luis Ceballos ◽  
Christian Euscátegui ◽  
Jair Ramírez ◽  
Marcela Cañon ◽  
Christian Huggel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Altitude ◽  
Sierra Nevada ◽  
Temperature Rise ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Glacier Retreat ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Aerial Photographs ◽  
Glacier Area ◽  
Tropical Glaciers

AbstractAs a consequence of ongoing atmospheric temperature rise, tropical glaciers belong to the unique and threatened ecosystems on Earth, as defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Houghton and others, 2001). Worldwide glacier monitoring, especially as part of the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), includes the systematic collection of data on such perennial surface ice masses. Several peaks in the sierras of Colombia have lost their glacier cover during recent decades. Today, high-altitude glaciers still exist in Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta, in Sierra Nevada del Cocuy and on the volcanoes of Nevados del Ruiz, de Santa Isabel, del Tolima and del Huila. Comparison of reconstructions of maximum glacier area extent during the Little Ice Age with more recent information from aerial photographs and satellite images clearly documents a fast-shrinking tendency and potential disappearance of the remaining glaciers within the next few decades. In the past 50 years, Colombian glaciers have lost 5 0% or more of their area. Glacier shrinkage has continued to be strong in the last 15 years, with a loss of 10−50% of the glacier area. The relationship between fast glacier retreat and local, regional and global climate change is now being investigated. Preliminary analyses indicate that the temperature rise of roughly 1°C in the last 30 years recorded at high-altitude meteorological stations exerts a primary control on glacier retreat. The investigations on the Colombian glaciers thus corroborate earlier findings concerning the high sensitivity of glaciers in the wet inner tropics to temperature rise. To improve understanding of fast glacier retreat in Colombia, a modern monitoring network has been established according to the multilevel strategy of the Global Terrestrial Network for Glaciers (GTN-G) within GCOS. The observations are also contributions to continued assessments of hazards from the glacier-covered volcanoes and to integrated global change research in mountain biosphere reserves.

scholarly journals Disasters without Borders: The Coronavirus Pandemic, Global Climate Change and the Ascendancy of Gradual Onset Disasters

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (6) ◽  
pp. 3299
Author(s):  
Katsuya Yamori ◽  
James D. Goltz
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Full Range ◽  
Sociological Research ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Sociological Study ◽  
Gradual Onset ◽  
Foundational Work ◽  
Definition Of

Throughout much of its history, the sociological study of human communities in the disaster has been based on events that occur rapidly, are limited in geographic scope, and their management understood as phased stages of response, recovery, mitigation and preparedness. More recent literature has questioned these concepts, arguing that gradual-onset phenomena like droughts, famines and epidemics merit consideration as disasters and that their exclusion has negative consequences for the communities impacted, public policy in terms of urgency and visibility and for the discipline itself as the analytical tools of sociological research are not brought to bear on these events. We agree that gradual-onset disasters merit greater attention from social scientists and in this paper have addressed the two most significant ongoing disasters that are gradual in onset, global in scope and have caused profound impacts on lives, livelihoods, communities and the governments that must cope with their effects. These disasters are the coronavirus pandemic and global climate change both, of which include dimensions that challenge the prevailing definition of disaster. We begin with an examination of the foundational work in the sociological study of a disaster that established a conceptual framework based solely on rapidly occurring disasters. Our focus is on several components of the existing framework for defining and studying disasters, which we term “borders.” These borders are temporal, spatial, phasing and positioning, which, in our view, must be reexamined, and to some degree expanded or redefined to accommodate the full range of disasters to which our globalized world is vulnerable. To do so will expand or redefine these borders to incorporate and promote an understanding of significant risks associated with disaster agents that are gradual and potentially catastrophic, global in scope and require international cooperation to manage.

Site fidelity of the declining amphibian Rana sierrae (Sierra Nevada yellow-legged frog)

2010 ◽  
Vol 67 (2) ◽  
pp. 243-255 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kathleen R. Matthews ◽  
Haiganoush K. Preisler
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Function ◽  
Sierra Nevada ◽  
National Park ◽  
Site Fidelity ◽  
High Elevation ◽  
Water Bodies ◽  
Mark Recapture ◽  
Declining Species ◽  
Main Activity

From 1997 to 2006, we used mark–recapture models to estimate the site fidelity of 1250 Sierra Nevada yellow-legged frogs ( Rana sierrae ) in Kings Canyon National Park, California, USA, during their three main activity periods of overwintering, breeding, and feeding. To quantify site fidelity, the tendency to return to and reuse previously occupied habitats, we used multistrata models (with water bodies as the strata) and potential function analyses. The probability of returning to previously used water bodies during all activity periods was typically greater than 80% and always greater than the probability of moving to other water bodies. Site fidelity models (with lake-specific movement transitions) were favored over those models that held movement transitions equal between lakes. Potential function analyses demonstrated that frogs were most strongly attracted to their original capture lakes rather than moving to the nearest available breeding or overwintering lake. Under current disturbances in high-elevation Sierra Nevada lakes (exotic trout, climate change), site fidelity is problematic because frogs return to lakes subject to drying or those with fish rather than dispersing to other lakes. Future recovery of declining species will need to focus efforts towards restoring habitats when animals maintain strong site fidelity even when their habitats deteriorate.

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