Climate change will impact the protective effect of forests against rockfall

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christine Moos ◽  
Antoine Guisan ◽  
Randin Christophe ◽  
Lischke Heike
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Protective Effect ◽  
Natural Disturbance ◽  
High Elevation ◽  
Swiss Alps ◽  
Protective Capacity ◽  
Forest Modelling ◽  
Mountain Areas ◽  
Protective Function ◽  
Extreme Climate

<p>In mountain areas, forests play a crucial role in protecting people and assets from natural hazards, such as rockfall. Their protective effect is strongly influenced by their structure and state, which are expected to be affected by climate change. More frequent drought events, but also changing natural disturbance regimes, may lead to abrupt diebacks of contemporary species followed by a slow reforestation. In this study, we investigated how a changing climate can affect the protective capacity of mountain forests against rockfall. We therefore combined dynamic forest modelling with a detailed rockfall risk analysis at three case study sites in the Western Swiss Alps. Future forest development was simulated for a moderate and an extreme climate scenario for 200 years with the dynamic forest model TreeMig (Lischke et al., 2006). We then calculated rockfall risk for different forest states based on three-dimensional rockfall simulations with RockyFor3D (Dorren 2016). First results indicate that both at high elevation near the tree line (1500-2200 m a.s.l.) as well as at lower elevations (500-1000 m a.s.l.), increasing drought can lead to diebacks of trees and a reduction of tree density and diameters resulting in a substantial loss of the protective function. Depending on the speed of migration of other, more drought tolerant species, this loss can be partially compensated, but a permanent reduction of the protective effect is to be expected at least for an extreme climate scneario due to a reduced basal area of the forest.</p>

scholarly journals Simulating the Effects of Intensifying Silviculture on Desired Species Yields across a Broad Environmental Gradient

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 755
Author(s):  
Eric B. Searle ◽  
F. Wayne Bell ◽  
Guy R. Larocque ◽  
Mathieu Fortin ◽  
Jennifer Dacosta ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Forest Management ◽  
Planning Process ◽  
Mechanistic Model ◽  
Natural Disturbance ◽  
Fine Tuning ◽  
Mechanistic Models ◽  
Paradigm Shifts ◽  
Ecological Processes ◽  
Forest Modelling

In the past two decades, forest management has undergone major paradigm shifts that are challenging the current forest modelling architecture. New silvicultural systems, guidelines for natural disturbance emulation, a desire to enhance structural complexity, major advances in successional theory, and climate change have all highlighted the limitations of current empirical models in covering this range of conditions. Mechanistic models, which focus on modelling underlying ecological processes rather than specific forest conditions, have the potential to meet these new paradigm shifts in a consistent framework, thereby streamlining the planning process. Here we use the NEBIE (a silvicultural intervention scale that classifies management intensities as natural, extensive, basic, intensive, and elite) plot network, from across Ontario, Canada, to examine the applicability of a mechanistic model, ZELIG-CFS (a version of the ZELIG tree growth model developed by the Canadian Forest Service), to simulate yields and species compositions. As silvicultural intensity increased, overall yield generally increased. Species compositions met the desired outcomes when specific silvicultural treatments were implemented and otherwise generally moved from more shade-intolerant to more shade-tolerant species through time. Our results indicated that a mechanistic model can simulate complex stands across a range of forest types and silvicultural systems while accounting for climate change. Finally, we highlight the need to improve the modelling of regeneration processes in ZELIG-CFS to better represent regeneration dynamics in plantations. While fine-tuning is needed, mechanistic models present an option to incorporate adaptive complexity into modelling forest management outcomes.

scholarly journals Climate change impacts the protective effect of forests: A case study in Switzerland

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christine Moos ◽  
Antoine Guisan ◽  
Christophe F. Randin ◽  
Heike Lischke
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Protective Effect ◽  
Climate Warming ◽  
Swiss Alps ◽  
Present Species ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Ground Truth Data

Abstract In steep terrain, forests play an important role as natural means of protection against natural hazards, such as rockfall. Due to climate warming, significant changes in the protection service of these forests have to be expected in future. Shifts of current to more drought adapted species may result in temporary or even irreversible losses in the risk reduction provided by these forests. In this study, we assessed how the protective effect against rockfall of a protection forest in the western part of the Valais in the Swiss Alps may change in future, by combining dynamic forest modelling with a quantitative risk analysis. Current and future forest development was modelled with the spatially explicit forest model TreeMig for a moderate (RCP4.5) and an extreme (RCP8.5) climate change scenario. The simulated forest scenarios were compared to ground-truth data from the current forest complex. We quantified the protective effect of the different forest scenarios based on the reduction of rockfall risk for people and infrastructure at the bottom of the slope. Rockfall risk was calculated on the basis of three-dimensional rockfall simulations. The forest simulations predicted a clear decrease in basal area of most of the currently present species in future. The forest turned into a Q. pubescens dominated forest, for both climate scenarios, and mixed with P. sylvestris in RCP4.5. F. sylvatica completely disappeared in RCP8.5. With climate warming, a clear increase in risk is expected for both climate change scenarios. In the long-term (> 100 years), a stabilization of risk, or even a slight decline may be expected due to an increase in biomass of the trees. The results of this study further indicate that regular forest interventions may promote regeneration and thus accelerate the shift in species distribution. Future research should address the long-term effect of different forest management strategies on the protection service of forests under climate change.

scholarly journals Impact of Climate Change on Nearshore Waves at a Beach Protected by a Barrier Reef

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 1681
Author(s):  
Claude la Hausse de Lalouvière ◽  
Vicente Gracia ◽  
Joan Pau Sierra ◽  
Jue Lin-Ye ◽  
Manuel García-León
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Coral Reef ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Wave Climate ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Barrier Reef ◽  
Protective Capacity ◽  
Protective Function ◽  
Climate Change Effects ◽  
Nearshore Waves

Barrier reefs dissipate most incoming wind-generated waves and, as a consequence, regulate the morphodynamics of its inbounded shorelines. The coastal protective capacity of reefs may nevertheless be compromised by climate change effects, such as reef degradation and sea-level rise. To assess the magnitude of these climate change effects, an analysis of the waves propagating across the barrier reef is carried out in Flic-en-Flac beach, Mauritius, based on scenarios of future sea levels and predicted coral reef condition. In the study, both the mean wave climate and extreme event conditions are considered. The results show that lower coral structure complexity jointly with higher water levels allow for higher waves to pass over the reef and, therefore, to reach the shoreline. In addition, modeling for cyclonic conditions showed that nearshore waves would also increase in height, which could lead to major coastal morphodynamic changes. Measures aimed at preserving the coral reef may allow the system to accommodate for the gradual climatic changes forecasted while keeping its coastal protective function.

scholarly journals Does the High Elevation Climate along Mt. Everest can be Represented by Lower Elevation Stations?

2021 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
pp. 99-109
Author(s):  
Binod Dawadi ◽  
Shankar Sharma ◽  
Kalpana Hamal ◽  
Nitesh Khadka ◽  
Yam Prasad Dhital ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
High Elevation ◽  
High Mountain ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Southern Slope ◽  
Mountain Areas ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Lower Elevation

Climate change studies of the high mountain areas of the central Himalayan region are mostly represented by the meteorological stations of the lower elevation. Therefore, to validate the climatic linkages, daily observational climate data from five automated weather stations (AWS) at elevations ranging from 2660 m to 5600 m on the southern slope of Mt. Everest were examined. Despite variations in the means and distribution of daily, 5-day, 10-day, and monthly temperature and precipitation between stations located at a higher elevation and their corresponding lower elevation, temperature records in the different elevations are highly correlated. In contrast, the precipitation data shows a comparatively weaker correlation. The slopes of the regression model (0.82–1.13) with (R2>0.74) for higher altitude (5050 m and 5600 m) throughout the year, 0.83–1.12 (R2>0.68) except late monsoon season for the station at 4260 m and 5050 m asl indicated the similar variability of the temperature between those stations. Similarly, Namche (3570 m) temperature changes by 0.81–1.32°C per degree change in corresponding lower elevation Lukla station (2660 m), except for monsoon season. However, inconsistent variation was observed between the station with a large altitudinal difference (2940 m) at Lukla and Kala Patthar (5600 m). In general, climate records from corresponding lower elevation can be used to quantitatively assess climatic information of the high elevation areas on the southern slope of Mt. Everest. However, corrections are necessary when absolute values of climatic factors are considered, especially in snow cover and snow-free areas. This study will be beneficial for understanding the high-altitude climate change and impact studies.

scholarly journals Fluctuations in annual climatic extremes are associated with reproductive variation in resident mountain chickadees

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (5) ◽  
pp. 171604 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dovid Y. Kozlovsky ◽  
Carrie L. Branch ◽  
Angela M. Pitera ◽  
Vladimir V. Pravosudov
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Reproductive Success ◽  
Sierra Nevada ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Full Range ◽  
Elevation Gradient ◽  
High Elevation ◽  
Climatic Extremes ◽  
Extreme Climate ◽  
Mountain Chickadees

Mounting evidence suggests that we are experiencing rapidly accelerating global climate change. Understanding how climate change may affect life is critical to identifying species and populations that are vulnerable. Most current research focuses on investigating how organisms may respond to gradual warming, but another effect of climate change is extreme annual variation in precipitation associated with alternations between drought and unusually heavy precipitation, like that exhibited in the western regions of North America. Understanding climate change effects on animal reproductive behaviour is especially important, because it directly impacts population persistence. Here, we present data on reproduction in nest-box breeding, resident mountain chickadees inhabiting high and low elevations in the Sierra Nevada across 5 years. These 5 years of data represent the full range of climatic variation from the largest drought in five centuries to one of the heaviest snow years on record. There were significant differences in most reproductive characteristics associated with variation in climate. Both climate extremes were negatively associated with reproductive success at high and low elevations, but low-elevation chickadees had worse reproductive success in the largest drought year while high-elevation chickadees had worse reproductive success in the heaviest snow year. Considering that the frequency of extreme climate swings between drought and snow is predicted to increase, such swings may have negative effects on chickadee populations across the entire elevation gradient, as climatic extremes should favour different adaptations. Alternatively, it is possible that climate fluctuations might favour preserving genetic variation allowing for higher resilience. It is too early to make specific predictions regarding how increased frequency of extreme climate fluctuation may impact chickadees; however, our data suggest that even the most common species may be susceptible.

scholarly journals Afforestation with Pinus nigra Arn ssp salzmannii along an elevation gradient: controlling factors and implications for climate change adaptation

Trees ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manuel Esteban Lucas-Borja ◽  
Xin Jing ◽  
David Candel-Perez ◽  
Misagh Parhizkar ◽  
Francisco Rocha ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Seedling Survival ◽  
Elevation Gradient ◽  
Pinus Nigra ◽  
High Elevation ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Black Pine ◽  
Mountain Areas ◽  
Seed Origin

Abstract Key Message The first bottleneck in Spanish black pine survival through afforestation is the lack of resistance to drought in their initial life stages. Abstract Spanish black pine (Pinus nigra Arn ssp. salzmannii) is the most widely distributed pine species in mountain areas of the Mediterranean Basin and is commonly used for afforestation in endangered and degraded areas. Despite its importance, little is known regarding the factors driving seedling survival for this species, which may hamper afforestation success in Mediterranean areas. In this study, we assessed the effects of seed origin and plantation site along a natural gradient with contrasting elevation and climatic conditions in a Mediterranean forest in Central-Eastern Spain. Our results showed: (1) higher seedling survival rates when seed origin differed from plantation site (25.3 ± 5.4%) compared to same origin and plantation site (5.3 ± 2.7%); (2) higher survival probability (~ 20%) for high and medium elevation seeds (colder and wetter locations) compared to the warmer and drier low elevation sites (15%); (3) higher seedling survival (~ 40%) at higher elevation sites compared to low-elevation sites (< 20%); and (4) increased hazard of seedling death with decreasing elevation of the plantation site. We also reported a complete mortality at the drier sites after the first summer following the plantation. Overall, the combination of seeds from medium elevation and high elevation plantation sites increased the survival of Spanish black pine. These results have direct implications for forest management of Spanish black pine in Mediterranean regions, particularly in current and future climate change scenarios.

scholarly journals Climate Change Impacts the Protective Effect of Forests: A Case Study in Switzerland

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christine Moos ◽  
Antoine Guisan ◽  
Christophe F. Randin ◽  
Heike Lischke
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Protective Effect ◽  
Climate Warming ◽  
Abies Alba ◽  
Swiss Alps ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Ground Truth Data

In steep terrain, forests play an important role as natural means of protection against natural hazards, such as rockfall. Due to climate warming, significant changes in the protection service of these forests have to be expected in future. Shifts of current to more drought adapted species may result in temporary or even irreversible losses in the reduction of rockfall risk provided by these forests. In this study, we assessed how the protective capacity against rockfall of a protection forest in the western part of the Valais in the Swiss Alps may change in future, by combining dynamic forest modelling with a quantitative risk analysis. Current and future forest development was modelled with the spatially explicit forest model TreeMig under a moderate (RCP4.5) and an extreme (RCP8.5) climate change scenario. The simulated forest scenarios were compared to ground-truth data from the current forest complex. We quantified the protective effect of the different forest scenarios based on the reduction of rockfall risk for people and infrastructure at the bottom of the slope. Rockfall risk was calculated on the basis of three-dimensional rockfall simulations. The forest simulations predicted a clear decrease in basal area of most of the currently occuring species (Fagus sylvatica, Picea abies, Larix decidua, and Abies alba) in future. The forest turned into a Quercus pubescens dominated forest, for both climate scenarios, mixed with Pinus sylvestris under RCP4.5. With climate warming, a clear increase in risk is expected for both climate change scenarios. In the long-term (&gt;100 years), a stabilization of risk, or even a slight decline may be expected due to an increase in biomass of the trees. The results of this study further indicate that regular forest interventions may promote regeneration and thus accelerate the shift in species distribution. Future research should explore into more details the long-term effect of different adaptive forest management strategies on the protection service of forests under climate change.

scholarly journals Effect of Nutrient Addition on the Productivity and Species Richness of Grassland Along With an Elevational Gradient in Tajikistan

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lian-Lian Fan ◽  
Okhonniyozov Mekrovar ◽  
Yao-Ming Li ◽  
Kai-Hui Li ◽  
Xue-Xi Ma ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Species Richness ◽  
Elevational Gradient ◽  
Significant Negative Correlation ◽  
High Elevation ◽  
High Mountain ◽  
Nutrient Inputs ◽  
Mountain Areas ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Precipitation And Temperature

Grasslands provide key resource for the millions of people who are dependent on livestock in Tajikistan. Productivity and species richness (SR) are important characteristics of grassland ecosystems and are greatly affected by nutrient inputs. The effect that climate change might have on these characteristics remains unclear. Here, an in situ nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) fertilization experiment was conducted at four sites along with an elevational gradient (650, 1,100, 1,250, and 2,000 m) in western Tajikistan over 2 years (2018 and 2019) to examine the influences of nutrient availability and climate change on aboveground biomass (AGB) and SR; precipitation and temperature were also considered to analyze the responses. It demonstrated that enrichment with N, P, and their combinations significantly increased AGB along with an elevational gradient (p &lt; 0.05). AGB increased as the concentrations of nutrients added increased. The maximum AGB, which was 2-fold higher compared with control, was observed when 90 kg N ha–1year–1 and 30 kg P ha–1year–1 were added. In addition, nitrogen addition alone stimulated greater AGB than P addition, although no significant difference was observed between these two treatments. Enrichment with N, P, and their combination had no significant effect on SR; however, SR significantly changed at different elevation. Elevation had direct effect on precipitation and temperature, which, in turn, resulted in variation in AGB and SR. Moreover, both nutrient and elevation had significant effect on AGB and SR, but there was no interaction effect of them. AGB and SR interacted with significant negative correlation. In the high-elevation area, plants grew better in the warmer year (2018); this indicates that grasslands in high mountain areas in Tajikistan might have higher productivity as the climate warms, which will positively affect the economic development of the country.

scholarly journals Integrating dark diversity and functional traits to enhance nature conservation of epiphytic lichens: a case study from Northern Italy

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Diego Pires Ferraz Trindade ◽  
Meelis Pärtel ◽  
Carlos Pérez Carmona ◽  
Tiina Randlane ◽  
Juri Nascimbene
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Nature Conservation ◽  
Functional Traits ◽  
Growth Form ◽  
Northern Italy ◽  
Epiphytic Lichens ◽  
Mountain Areas ◽  
High Elevations ◽  
Harsh Conditions

AbstractMountains provide a timely opportunity to examine the potential effects of climate change on biodiversity. However, nature conservation in mountain areas have mostly focused on the observed part of biodiversity, not revealing the suitable but absent species—dark diversity. Dark diversity allows calculating the community completeness, indicating whether sites should be restored (low completeness) or conserved (high completeness). Functional traits can be added, showing what groups should be focused on. Here we assessed changes in taxonomic and functional observed and dark diversity of epiphytic lichens along elevational transects in Northern Italy spruce forests. Eight transects (900–1900 m) were selected, resulting in 48 plots and 240 trees, in which lichens were sampled using four quadrats per tree (10 × 50 cm). Dark diversity was estimated based on species co-occurrence (Beals index). We considered functional traits related to growth form, photobiont type and reproductive strategy. Linear and Dirichlet regressions were used to examine changes in taxonomic metrics and functional traits along gradient. Our results showed that all taxonomic metrics increased with elevation and functional traits of lichens differed between observed and dark diversity. At low elevations, due to low completeness and harsh conditions, both restoration and conservation activities are needed, focusing on crustose species. Towards high elevations, conservation is more important to prevent species pool losses, focusing on macrolichens, lichens with Trentepohlia and sexual reproduction. Finally, dark diversity and functional traits provide a novel tool to enhance nature conservation, indicating particular threatened groups, creating windows of opportunities to protect species from both local and regional extinctions.

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