scholarly journals Conditions for transient epidemics of waterborne disease in spatially explicit systems

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (5) ◽  
pp. 181517 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lorenzo Mari ◽  
Renato Casagrandi ◽  
Enrico Bertuzzo ◽  
Andrea Rinaldo ◽  
Marino Gatto
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Spatially Explicit ◽  
Waterborne Diseases ◽  
Waterborne Disease ◽  
Free System ◽  
Transmission Cycle ◽  
Pathogen Invasion ◽  
Waterborne Infections ◽  
Pathogen Transport

Waterborne diseases are a diverse family of infections transmitted through ingestion of—or contact with—water infested with pathogens. Outbreaks of waterborne infections often show well-defined spatial signatures that are typically linked to local eco-epidemiological conditions, water-mediated pathogen transport and human mobility. In this work, we apply a spatially explicit network model describing the transmission cycle of waterborne pathogens to determine invasion conditions in metacommunities endowed with a realistic spatial structure. Specifically, we aim to define conditions under which pathogens can temporarily colonize a set of human communities, thus triggering a transient epidemic outbreak. To that end, we apply generalized reactivity analysis, a recently developed methodological framework for the study of transient dynamics in ecological systems subject to external perturbations. The study of pathogen invasion is complemented by the detection of the spatial signatures associated with the perturbations to a disease-free system that are expected to be amplified the most over different time scales. Understanding the drivers of waterborne disease dynamics over time scales that are relevant to epidemic and/or endemic transmission is a crucial, cross-disciplinary challenge, as large portions of the developing world still struggle to cope with the burden of these infections.

scholarly journals MODELLI SPAZIO-TEMPORALI DI DIFFUSIONE, PREVISIONE E CONTROLLO DELLE EPIDEMIE DI COLERA: DAL SUDAFRICA AD HAITI

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marino Gatto ◽  
Lorenzo Mari ◽  
Andrea Rinaldo
Keyword(s):  
Health Policies ◽  
Spatially Explicit ◽  
Waterborne Diseases ◽  
Epidemiological Models ◽  
Waterborne Disease ◽  
Public Health Policies ◽  
Spatially Inhomogeneous ◽  
Epidemic Development ◽  
Disease Epidemics ◽  
And Control

Understanding, predicting and controlling the dynamics of cholera and other waterborne diseases are crucial goals of public health policies. Appropriate quantitative models to forecast epidemic development and to evaluate possible intervention scenarios would be specially needed during epidemic outbreaks, when preparedness and efficient allocation of resources are key to emergency management. Moreover, these tools ought to be spatially explicit, because waterborne disease epidemics usually display spatially inhomogeneous patterns. Here we describe spatially explicit epidemiological models and methods for real-time forecast of waterborne disease epidemics and design of intervention strategies for epidemic prevention and control. Applications to two cholera epidemics in South Africa and Haiti are briefly illustrated.

Agent-Based Computational Model

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joshua M. Epstein
Keyword(s):  
Computational Model ◽  
Bounded Rationality ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Spatially Explicit ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Affective Component ◽  
Elementary Type ◽  
Social Component ◽  
Different Time Scales

This part describes the agent-based and computational model for Agent_Zero and demonstrates its capacity for generative minimalism. It first explains the replicability of the model before offering an interpretation of the model by imagining a guerilla war like Vietnam, Afghanistan, or Iraq, where events transpire on a 2-D population of contiguous yellow patches. Each patch is occupied by a single stationary indigenous agent, which has two possible states: inactive and active. The discussion then turns to Agent_Zero's affective component and an elementary type of bounded rationality, as well as its social component, with particular emphasis on disposition, action, and pseudocode. Computational parables are then presented, including a parable relating to the slaughter of innocents through dispositional contagion. This part also shows how the model can capture three spatially explicit examples in which affect and probability change on different time scales.

scholarly journals On spatially explicit models of cholera epidemics

2009 ◽  
Vol 7 (43) ◽  
pp. 321-333 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Bertuzzo ◽  
R. Casagrandi ◽  
M. Gatto ◽  
I. Rodriguez-Iturbe ◽  
A. Rinaldo
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
Reactive Transport ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Propagation Speed ◽  
Power Laws ◽  
Compartmental Models ◽  
Spatially Explicit ◽  
Channel Networks ◽  
Spatially Explicit Models ◽  
Regular Lattices

We generalize a recently proposed model for cholera epidemics that accounts for local communities of susceptibles and infectives in a spatially explicit arrangement of nodes linked by networks having different topologies. The vehicle of infection ( Vibrio cholerae ) is transported through the network links that are thought of as hydrological connections among susceptible communities. The mathematical tools used are borrowed from general schemes of reactive transport on river networks acting as the environmental matrix for the circulation and mixing of waterborne pathogens. Using the diffusion approximation, we analytically derive the speed of propagation for travelling fronts of epidemics on regular lattices (either one-dimensional or two-dimensional) endowed with uniform population density. Power laws are found that relate the propagation speed to the diffusion coefficient and the basic reproduction number. We numerically obtain the related, slower speed of epidemic spreading for more complex, yet realistic river structures such as Peano networks and optimal channel networks. The analysis of the limit case of uniformly distributed population sizes proves instrumental in establishing the overall conditions for the relevance of spatially explicit models. To that extent, the ratio between spreading and disease outbreak time scales proves the crucial parameter. The relevance of our results lies in the major differences potentially arising between the predictions of spatially explicit models and traditional compartmental models of the susceptible–infected–recovered (SIR)-like type. Our results suggest that in many cases of real-life epidemiological interest, time scales of disease dynamics may trigger outbreaks that significantly depart from the predictions of compartmental models.

scholarly journals Trends and Persistence of Dry–Wet Conditions in Northeast Brazil

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 1134
Author(s):  
Antonio Samuel Alves da Silva ◽  
Moacyr Cunha Filho ◽  
Rômulo Simões Cezar Menezes ◽  
Tatijana Stosic ◽  
Borko Stosic
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Spatially Explicit ◽  
Fluctuation Analysis ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Agricultural Planning ◽  
Detrended Fluctuation

We analyze trend and persistence in Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) time series derived from monthly rainfall data at 133 gauging stations in Pernambuco state, Brazil, using a suite of complementary methods to address the spatially explicit tendencies, and persistence. SPI was calculated for 1-, 3-, 6-, and 12-month time scales from 1950 to 2012. We use Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope to determine sign and magnitude of the trend, and detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) method to quantify long-term correlations. For all time scales significant negative trends are obtained in the Sertão (deep inland) region, while significant positive trends are found in the Agreste (intermediate inland), and Zona da Mata (coastal) regions. The values of DFA exponents show different scaling behavior for different time scales. For short-term conditions described by SPI-1 the DFA exponent is close to 0.5 indicating weak persistency and low predictability, while for medium-term conditions (SPI-3 and SPI-6) DFA exponents are greater than 0.5 and increase with time scale indicating stronger persistency and higher predictability. For SPI-12 that describes long-term precipitation patterns, the values of DFA exponents for inland regions are around 1, indicating strong persistency, while in the shoreline the value of the DFA exponent is between 1.0 and 1.5, indicating anti-persistent fractional Brownian motion. These results should be useful for agricultural planning and water resource management in the region.

scholarly journals Waterborne diseases in the state of Mexico, Mexico (2000–2005)

2011 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 200-207 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. C. Jiménez-Moleón ◽  
M. A. Gómez-Albores
Keyword(s):  
Water Distribution ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Water Distribution Network ◽  
The State ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Waterborne Diseases ◽  
Waterborne Disease ◽  
Actual Distribution ◽  
Children Under Five ◽  
Under Five

This paper reports a spatial-temporal examination of waterborne disease data from the State of Mexico, 2000 to 2005, by county as the spatial unit. It was found that the incidence of waterborne disease did not decrease during the period under study. Inequality between metropolitan areas and rural zones was observed. People living in population centres had lower incidence of water-related diseases, possibly due to better access to services. In all cases, children under five years old suffered a much higher relative morbidity than the population in general. Improvement of the water distribution network between 2000 and 2005 could explain the decrease in morbidity from 30% to 15%, for the total population, and from 34% to 18.5%, for children under five years old. Coverage of sewer services over the period was not substantially improved; as a result the coefficient of determination remained nearly constant: 16.5% for the total population and 25% for children under five. Maintenance and operation deficiencies in the water distribution and wastewater sanitation systems play an important role in the incidence of this type of disease. It was found that the institutional division of the territory does not correspond to the actual distribution of the risk areas.

scholarly journals An overview of emerging foodborne and waterborne diseases

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 51-60
Author(s):  
C. L. R. Bartlett
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Waterborne Diseases ◽  
Waterborne Disease ◽  
The Past ◽  
Heavy Burden ◽  
Emergent Pathogen ◽  
Etiological Agents

Several foodborne and waterborne diseases have emerged in the past two decades as a consequence of changes in etiological agents, hosts and the environment. The burden of foodborne and waterborne disease is not uniformly distributed globally:because of the inequitable distribution of the world’s resources some countries carry a disproportionately heavy burden of infectious disease, and what is considered a re-emergent pathogen in one location may be endemic in another

scholarly journals Prevalence of Waterborne Diseases in Bade, Nguru and Machina Local Government Areas of Yobe State-Nigeria

2020 ◽  
pp. 35-46
Author(s):  
Abubakar Alhaji Ahmed ◽  
Yahaya Kafayos
Keyword(s):  
Drinking Water ◽  
Local Government ◽  
Potable Water ◽  
Infectious Hepatitis ◽  
Waterborne Diseases ◽  
Personal Interview ◽  
Cholera Outbreak ◽  
Hand Pump ◽  
Waterborne Infections ◽  
Gender Based

Waterborne diseases are mainly caused by consuming food or water tainted with faecal matter or urine of human or animal which contains pathogens. Records have shown that Yobe State is one of the states in Nigeria that have recorded mortalities due to waterborne infections. This study is aimed at identifying common waterborne diseases such as cholera, typhoid, infectious hepatitis, giadiasis, amoebiasis, and dracunculiasis between 2017 and 2019 in three local Government Areas (L.G.As) of Yobe State. Personal interview was employed to generate information from the local people on sources of drinking water in three sampled geo – political wards (Bade, Nguru and Machine L.G.As). Results revealed that most of the dwellers in the study area drink from non – potable water sources such as faucets, hand pump, wash boreholes, wells, rivers, pools and creeks. Results also show that people from the study area do not drink potable water. A total of 1204 cholera cases were reported between 2017 and 2019 in the study areas with Machina L.G.A having the highest number of cases (446) representing 37.04% of the total cases. Mortality due to cholera outbreak in all the surveyed LG.As was 124 with Bade L.G.A having the highest number (43) constituting 34.68% of total mortalities in the study areas. A total of 11,938 persons were infected with typhoid during the study period and Nguru L.G.A recorded the highest number of infections (4,438) representing 37.18% of total infections. Gender based percentage prevalence of typhoid in the study is higher in males (52.83%) than females (47.18%). Recommendations on how to overcome the menace have been highlighted.

scholarly journals Determinants of MDA impact and designing MDAs towards malaria elimination

eLife ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bo Gao ◽  
Sompob Saralamba ◽  
Yoel Lubell ◽  
Lisa J White ◽  
Arjen M Dondorp ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Malaria Elimination ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Transmission Risk ◽  
Spatially Explicit ◽  
Spatially Explicit Model ◽  
Mobile Populations ◽  
Invaluable Tool ◽  
Low Prevalence ◽  
Drug Interventions ◽  
The Impact

Malaria remains at the forefront of scientific research and global political and funding agendas. Malaria models have consistently oversimplified how mass interventions are implemented. Here, we present an individual based, spatially explicit model of P. falciparum malaria transmission that includes all the programmatic implementation details of mass drug administration (MDA) campaigns. We uncover how the impact of MDA campaigns is determined by the interaction between implementation logistics, patterns of human mobility and how transmission risk is distributed over space. Our results indicate that malaria elimination is only realistically achievable in settings with very low prevalence and can be hindered by spatial heterogeneities in risk. In highly mobile populations, accelerating MDA implementation increases likelihood of elimination; if populations are more static, deploying less teams would be cost optimal. We conclude that mass drug interventions can be an invaluable tool towards malaria elimination in low endemicity areas, specifically when paired with effective vector control.

scholarly journals 1887. Estimating the Burden of Waterborne Disease in the United States

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (Supplement_2) ◽  
pp. S53-S54 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah Collier ◽  
Katharine Benedict ◽  
Kathleen Fullerton ◽  
Li Deng ◽  
Jennifer R Cope ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
United States ◽  
Healthcare Costs ◽  
Burden Of Illness ◽  
The United States ◽  
Waterborne Diseases ◽  
Waterborne Disease ◽  
Waterborne Illnesses ◽  
Credible Intervals ◽  
Ed Visits

Abstract Background Treatment of drinking water is one of the greatest US public health achievements of the twentieth century and provides a safe, reliable water supply. However, waterborne disease and outbreaks continue to occur, and are associated with a variety of water sources and exposure routes. New estimates of the burden of waterborne disease in the United States will direct prevention activities and set public health goals. Methods We chose 17 waterborne diseases for which domestic waterborne transmission was plausible, substantial burden of illness or death was likely, and data were available. Diseases included were campylobacteriosis, cryptosporidiosis, giardiasis, Legionnaires’ disease, norovirus infection, nontuberculous mycobacteria [NTM] infection, otitis externa, Pseudomonas pneumonia and septicemia, salmonellosis, Shiga toxin-producing E. coli infection, shigellosis, and vibriosis. Adapting previously used methods, disease-specific multipliers were used to adjust the reported/documented number of cases of each disease for under-reporting, under-diagnosis, proportion domestically acquired, and proportion transmitted via water, to generate point estimates with 95% credible intervals (CrI). Data sources included surveillance data, population studies, and expert judgment if no other data were available. We estimated the number of illnesses, ED visits, hospitalizations, and deaths, and costs of ED visits and hospitalizations due to waterborne disease in the United States in 2014. Results 7.2 million waterborne illnesses (CrI 3.9–12.0 million) from the selected diseases occur annually, including 600,000 (CrI 365,000–865,000) ED visits, 120,000 (CrI 85,000–150,000) hospitalizations, and 6,500 deaths (CrI 4,300–8,900) deaths, incurring US$3.2 billion (2014 dollars) in direct healthcare costs. Hospitalizations and deaths were predominantly caused by environmental pathogens commonly associated with biofilm in plumbing systems (NTM, Pseudomonas, Legionella) costing US$2 billion annually. Conclusion Millions of domestically acquired waterborne illnesses from these 17 infections occur in the United States each year, and incur billions of dollars in healthcare costs. Disclosures All Authors: No reported Disclosures.

scholarly journals Integrated Electrochemical Biosensors for Detection of Waterborne Pathogens in Low-Resource Settings

Biosensors ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 36 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joshua Rainbow ◽  
Eliska Sedlackova ◽  
Shu Jiang ◽  
Grace Maxted ◽  
Despina Moschou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Quality ◽  
Developing World ◽  
Water Quality Monitoring ◽  
Electrochemical Biosensors ◽  
Waterborne Diseases ◽  
Sample Collection ◽  
Waterborne Disease ◽  
Low Resource Settings ◽  
Low Resource ◽  
Quality Testing

More than 783 million people worldwide are currently without access to clean and safe water. Approximately 1 in 5 cases of mortality due to waterborne diseases involve children, and over 1.5 million cases of waterborne disease occur every year. In the developing world, this makes waterborne diseases the second highest cause of mortality. Such cases of waterborne disease are thought to be caused by poor sanitation, water infrastructure, public knowledge, and lack of suitable water monitoring systems. Conventional laboratory-based techniques are inadequate for effective on-site water quality monitoring purposes. This is due to their need for excessive equipment, operational complexity, lack of affordability, and long sample collection to data analysis times. In this review, we discuss the conventional techniques used in modern-day water quality testing. We discuss the future challenges of water quality testing in the developing world and how conventional techniques fall short of these challenges. Finally, we discuss the development of electrochemical biosensors and current research on the integration of these devices with microfluidic components to develop truly integrated, portable, simple to use and cost-effective devices for use by local environmental agencies, NGOs, and local communities in low-resource settings.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document