scholarly journals Background level of risk and the survival of predator-naive prey: can neophobia compensate for predator naivety in juvenile coral reef fishes?

2015 ◽  
Vol 282 (1799) ◽  
pp. 20142197 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maud C. O. Ferrari ◽  
Mark I. McCormick ◽  
Mark G. Meekan ◽  
Douglas P. Chivers

Neophobia—the generalized fear response to novel stimuli—provides the first potential strategy that predator-naive prey may use to survive initial predator encounters. This phenotype appears to be highly plastic and present in individuals experiencing high-risk environments, but rarer in those experiencing low-risk environments. Despite the appeal of this strategy as a ‘solution’ for prey naivety, we lack evidence that this strategy provides any fitness benefit to prey. Here, we compare the relative effect of environmental risk (high versus low) and predator-recognition training (predator-naive versus predator-experienced individuals) on the survival of juvenile fish in the wild. We found that juveniles raised in high-risk conditions survived better than those raised in low-risk conditions, providing the first empirical evidence that environmental risk, in the absence of any predator-specific information, affects the way naive prey survive in a novel environment. Both risk level and experience affected survival; however, the two factors did not interact, indicating that the information provided by both factors did not interfere or enhance each other. From a mechanistic viewpoint, this indicates that the combination of the two factors may increase the intensity, and hence efficacy, of prey evasion strategies, or that both factors provide qualitatively separate benefits that would result in an additive survival success.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alberto Gerri ◽  
Ahmed Shokry ◽  
Enrico Zio ◽  
Marco Montini

Abstract Hydrates formation in subsea pipelines is one of the main reliability concerns for flow assurance engineers. A fast and reliable assessment of the Cool-Down Time (CDT), the period between a shut-down event and possible hydrates formation in the asset, is of key importance for the safety of operations. Existing methods for the CDT prediction are highly dependent on the use of very complex physics-based models that demand large computational time, which hinders their usage in an online environment. Therefore, this work presents a novel methodology for the development of surrogate models that predict, in a fast and accurate way, the CDT in subsea pipelines after unplanned shutdowns. The proposed methodology is, innovatively, tailored on the basis of reliability perspective, by treating the CDT as a risk index, where a critic CDT threshold (i.e. the minimum time needed by the operator to preserve the line from hydrates formation) is considered to distinguish the simulation outputs into high-risk and low-risk domains. The methodology relies on the development of a hybrid Machine Learning (ML) based model using datasets generated through complex physics-based model’ simulations. The hybrid ML-based model consists of a Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier that assigns a risk level (high or low) to the measured operating condition of the asset, and two Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) for predicting the CDT at the high-risk (low CDT) or the low-risk (high CDT) operating conditions previously assigned by the classifier. The effectiveness of the proposed methodology is validated by its application to a case study involving a pipeline in an offshore western African asset, modelled by a transient physics-based commercial software. The results show outperformance of the capabilities of the proposed hybrid ML-based model (i.e., SVM + 2 ANNs) compared to the classical approach (i.e. modelling the entire system with one global ANN) in terms of enhancing the prediction of the CDT during the high-risk conditions of the asset. This behaviour is confirmed applying the novel methodology to training datasets of different size. In fact, the high-risk Normalized Root Mean Square Error (NRMSE) is reduced on average of 15% compared to the NRMSE of a global ANN model. Moreover, it’s shown that high-risk CDT are better predicted by the hybrid model even if the critic CDT, which divides the simulation outputs in high-risk and low-risk values (i.e. the minimum time needed by the operator to preserve the line from hydrates formation), changes. The enhancement, in this case, is on average of 14.6%. Eventually, results show how the novel methodology cuts down by more than one hundred seventy-eight times the computational times for online CDT predictions compared to the physics-based model.


Author(s):  
Muhamad Bob Anthony

PT. RK is one of the major international steel producing companies. This study aims to determine the potential hazards and the value of the level of risk that is likely to occur in the new plant owned by PT. RK i.e. the gas cleaning system area which is currently in the process of entering 95% progress. This study uses the Hazard & Operability Study (HAZOPs) method in analyzing risks in the gas cleaning system area of PT. RK. The Hazard & Operability Study (HAZOPs) method was used in this study because this method is very suitable for a new plant to be used. Based on the identification of potential hazards and risk analysis that has been done in the area of gas cleaning system using the HAZOPs method, it was found that 11 deviations that might occur from all existing nodes, i.e. for extreme risk levels of 1 (one) deviation or 9%, level high risk of 2 (two) deviations or 18%, moderate risk level of 6 (six) deviations or 55% and low risk level of 2 (two) deviations or 18%.Keyword : Gas Cleaning System, HAZOPs, Potential of Hazard, Risk Levels PT. RK merupakan salah satu perusahaan manufaktur besar penghasil baja berskala internasional. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui potensi bahaya dan nilai level risiko yang kemungkinan terjadi di plant baru milik PT. RK yaitu area gas cleaning system yang saat ini proses pekerjaannya sudah memasuki progress 95%. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode Hazard & Operability Study (HAZOPs) dalam menganalisa risiko di area gas cleaning system  PT. RK.  Metode Hazard & Operability Study (HAZOPs) digunakan dalam penelitian ini dikarenakan metode ini sangat cocok untuk sebuah plant baru yang akan digunakan. Berdasarkan identifikasi potensi bahaya dan analisa risiko yang telah dilakukan di area gas cleaning system dengan menggunakan metode HAZOPs, didapatkan bahwa 11 penyimpangan yang kemungkinan terjadi dari semua node yang ada yaitu untuk level risiko extreme sebanyak 1 (satu) penyimpangan atau sebesar 9%, level risiko high risk sebanyak 2 (dua) penyimpangan atau sebesar 18%, level risiko moderate sebanyak 6 (enam) penyimpangan atau sebesar 55% dan level risiko low risk sebanyak 2 (dua) penyimpangan atau sebesar 18%.Kata Kunci: Gas Cleaning System, HAZOPs, Level Risiko, Potensi Bahaya


e-CliniC ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Engelin E. Emor ◽  
Agnes L. Panda ◽  
Janry Pangemanan

Abstract: Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease is caused by the accumulation of plaque on the artery wall causing dysfunction of anatomical and hemodynamic system of the heart and blood flow. There are many risk factors that cause atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease which are divided into modifiable and unmodifiable risk factors. Prevention of this disease can be achieved with early detection, such as prediction the risk level of 10 years ahead of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease by using the Framingham Risk Score (FRS). This study was aimed to obtain the risk level of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in patients at Internal Medicine Polyclinic of Prof. Dr. R. D. Kandou Hospital Manado by using their medical records from September to October 2017. This was a descriptive study with a cross sectional design. There were 100 samples obtained by using conclusive sampling technique. Of the 100 patients, 42 (42%) patients had low risk, 27 (27%) patients had moderate risk, and 31 (31%) patients had high risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in 10 years ahead. Conclusion: In this study, the highest percentage was in patients with low risk, followed by patients with high risk, and moderate risk.Keywords: ASCVD, Framingham Risk Score, Risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular sisease. Abstrak: Penyakit kardiovaskuler aterosklerotik adalah penyakit yang disebabkan oleh adanya timbunan plak pada dinding arteri sehingga menyebabkan gangguan fungsional, anatomis serta sistem hemodinamis jantung dan pembuluh darah. Terdapat banyak faktor risiko yang menyebabkan terjadinya penyakit kardiovaskuler aterosklerotik yang dibagi menjadi faktor risiko yang dapat dimodifikasi dan yang tidak dapat dimodifikasi. Pencegahan penyakit ini dapat dilakukan dengan deteksi dini, salah satunya yaitu dengan memrediksi tingkat risiko 10 tahun kedepan terjadinya penyakit kardiovaskuler aterosklerotik dengan menggunakan Framingham Risk Score. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui tingkat risiko penyakit kardiovaskuler ateroskerotik pada pasien di Poliklinik Penyakit Dalam RSUP Prof. Dr. R. D. Kandou Manado. Jenis penelitian ialah deskriptif dengan desain potong lintang menggunakan data rekam medik pasien Poliklinik Penyakit Dalam RSUP Prof. Dr. R. D. Kandou Manado periode September - Oktober 2017. Sampel penelitian berjumlah 100 orang dengan teknik pengambilan conclusive sampling. Terdapat 42 pasien (42%) dengan tingkat risiko rendah, 27 pasien (27%) dengan risiko sedang, dan 31 pasien (31%) dengan risiko tinggi terkena penyakit kardiovaskuler aterosklerotik 10 tahun kedepan. Simpulan: Pada studi ini, persentase tertinggi ialah pasien dengan tingkat risiko rendah terjadinya penyakit kardiovaskuler aterosklerotik, diikuti tingkat risiko tinggi dan risiko sedang.Kata kunci: ASCVD, Framingham Risk Score, tingkat risiko penyakit kardiovaskuler aterosklerotik


2015 ◽  
Vol 33 (7_suppl) ◽  
pp. 68-68 ◽  
Author(s):  
Phuoc T. Tran ◽  
Amol Narang ◽  
Ashwin Ram ◽  
Scott P. Robertson ◽  
Pei He ◽  
...  

68 Background: In patients with localized prostate cancer undergoing radiation therapy (RT) +/- androgen deprivation therapy (ADT), an end of radiation (EOR) PSA obtained during the last week of RT may serve as an early post-treatment predictor of poor outcomes and identify patients in whom to pursue treatment intensification or novel therapies. Methods: We reviewed an IRB-monitored, prospectively acquired database of patients with prostate cancer treated with definitive RT at our institution from 1993-2007 (n=890). Patients with an available EOR PSA were divided into two cohorts and analyzed separately based on inclusion of ADT into the treatment regimen. EOR PSA thresholds of 0.5 ng/mL and 1.0 ng/mL were explored. Multivariate analysis was performed to determine prognostic factors for biochemical failure-free survival (BFFS, Phoenix criteria) and overall survival (OS). Kaplan-Meier survival curves were constructed, with stratification by EOR PSA thresholds. Results: Median age was 69 years, with an even distribution of NCCN low risk (33.5%), intermediate risk (34.0%), and high risk (32.5%) patients. Median RT dose was 7020 cGy, and 54.5% were treated with ADT. Median follow-up of the entire cohort was 11.7 yrs. EOR PSA level was available for the majority of patients (77.5%). On multivariate analysis, EOR PSA >0.5 ng/mL was significantly associated with worse BFFS (p<0.0001) and OS (p<0.0001). In the subset of patients undergoing RT with ADT for NCCN intermediate/high risk disease, 5 yr BFFS was more disparate based an EOR PSA threshold of 0.5 ng/mL (5 yr BFFS: 87.3% vs. 41.1%, p<0.001), than initial NCCN risk level (5 yr BFFS: 88.7% vs. 76.9%, p=0.038). In NCCN low risk patients undergoing definitive RT alone, an EOR PSA threshold of 1.0 ng/mL was significantly prognostic of outcome (5 yr BFFS: 100.0% vs. 88.6%, p=0.024). Conclusions: For NCCN intermediate/high risk patients undergoing RT with ADT, EOR PSA >0.5 ng/mL may represent a better surrogate for poor outcomes than initial risk group. In addition, NCCN low risk patients undergoing RT alone who obtained an EOR PSA ≤1.0 ng/mL experienced excellent BFFS. Prospective evaluation of the utility of EOR PSA should be explored.


2020 ◽  
pp. 50-55
Author(s):  
A. V. Fedoseev ◽  
A. S. Inyutin ◽  
S. N. Lebedev ◽  
V. S. Shklyar

The issue of predicting and preventing postoperative ventral hernias is relevant. 450 patients were examined to identify and determine the significance of risk factors, and 71 patients underwent MRI of the anterior abdominal wall to assess the morphology of the anterior abdominal wall. Large and small predictors of herniation are identified. MRI revealed aponeurosis defects that are not physically determined, which is a high risk of postoperative ventral hernias. Based on the risk level of postoperative ventral hernias, their surgical prevention was performed. Patients at low risk should undergo laparorrhaphy with a staggered strengthening suture, at high risk - preventive using a mesh prosthesis, and if it is impossible - laparorrhaphy using a thread from a mesh polypropylene implant according to the developed technique.


2022 ◽  
Vol 956 (1) ◽  
pp. 012008
Author(s):  
R Rachmawaty ◽  
A Abdullah ◽  
K Khairil ◽  
D Syafrianti ◽  
A M Daud ◽  
...  

Abstract Elephants are designated as endangered animals because their population in the wild continues to decline. One of the causes of its extinction is the threat of conflict between elephants and humans. The conflict between Sumatran elephants and humans in Aceh continues to increase every year, but there is no resolution to this conflict. This study was aimed to analyse the level of risk of elephant-human conflict in the Mila area and map the conflict areas. The method used was the observation method with the purposive sampling technique. The data was analysed using the disaster risk formula. The results of the analysis of the risk level of elephant-human conflict in Mila District showed that the high-risk level was in Tuha Lala Village (35.24%), Babah Jurong Village (35.22%) and Kumbang Village (35.04%). The level of risk was moderate in Krueng Lala Village (27.64%), Andeue Mosque Village (30.38%) and Dayah Andeue Village (33.38%). Meanwhile, areas with a low-risk level were Kulu Village (21.65%) and Dayah Sinthop Village (20.32%). The mapping of conflict risk areas was coloured red for high risk, yellow for medium risk and green for low risk. The conclusion in this study is that Tula Lala Village, Babah Jurong Village and Kumbang Village are areas with high conflict marked in red. Krueng Lala Village, Andeu Mosque Village and Andeue Dayah Village are areas with moderate conflict which are marked in yellow. Meanwhile, Kulu Village and Dayah Sinthop Village are areas with low conflict marked in green.


Author(s):  
Audrey McCombs ◽  
Claus Kadelka

AbstractWe present a stochastic compartmental network model of SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 exploring the effects of policy choices in three domains: social distancing, hospital triaging, and testing. We distinguished between high-risk and low-risk members of the population, and modeled differences in social interactions due to context, risk level, infection status, and testing status. The model incorporates many of the currently important characteristics of the disease, including overcapacity in the healthcare system and uncertainties surrounding the proportion and transmission potential of asymptomatic cases. We compared current policy guidelines from public health agencies with alternative options, and investigated the effects of policy decisions on the overall proportion of COVID-19-related deaths. Our results support current policies to contain the outbreak but also suggest possible refinements, including emphasizing the need to reduce public, random contacts more than private contacts, and testing low-risk symptomatic individuals before high-risk symptomatic individuals. Our model furthermore points to interactions among the three policy domains; the efficacy of a particular policy choice depends on other implemented policies. Finally, our results provide an explanation for why societies like Germany, with lower average rates of social contact, are more successful at containing the outbreak than highly social societies such as Italy, despite the implementation of similar policy measures.


2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽  
Author(s):  
I Piras ◽  
G Murenu ◽  
G Piras ◽  
G Pia ◽  
A Azara ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Falls in hospital are adverse events with serious consequences for the patient. Fall risk assessment requires easy tools that are suitable for the specific clinical context. This is important to quickly identify preventing measures. The aim of the study is to identify an appropriate scale for assessing fall risk in patients from an emergency department. Methods For the fall risk assessment in the emergency department, three scales were identified in literature: Kinder 1, MEDFRAT, and Morse. MEDFRAT and Morse classify the patient in high, moderate, and low risk; Kinder 1 split patients “at risk” (also when there is only one positive item) and “non-risk” (in which all items are negative). The study was carried out in July 2019 in an Italian emergency department. Patients who arrived in triage were assessed for the fall risk using the three scales. Results On a sample of 318 patients, the used scales show different levels of fall risk. For Kinder 1, 83.02% is at risk and 16.98% is not at risk; for MEDFRAT, 14.78% is at high risk, 15.09% moderate, and 70.13% low risk; for Morse, 8.81% is at high risk, 35.53% moderate, and 56.66% low risk. As Kinder 1 implies as “high risk” that all items of the questionnaire are positive, to compare Kinder 1 to the other scales with three measurements, we assumed only one positive response as “moderate risk”, all negative responses as “low risk”. Thus, Kinder 1 shows no cases at high risk, 83.02% moderate risk, and 16.98% low risk. All the scales show that the moderate-high risk increases with age. MEDFRAT and Morse have concordant percentages for young (13.6%), elderly (61.2%), and long-lived (66.6%) people. Kinder 1, 59%, 96.7%, and 100%, respectively. Conclusions The comparison between scales shows inhomogeneity in identifying the level of risk. MEDFRAT and Morse appear more reliable and consistent. Key messages An appropriate assessment scale is important to identify the fall risk level. Identifying accurate fall risk levels allows for implementing specific prevention actions.


2019 ◽  
Vol 37 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. e12599-e12599
Author(s):  
Kevin Lord ◽  
Bruce A. Feinberg ◽  
Jonathan Kish ◽  
Jalyna R. Laney ◽  
Dhruv Chopra ◽  
...  

e12599 Background: Severe and persistent nausea and vomiting (n/v) impacts quality of life and may lead to treatment discontinuation. While antiemetics assist with minimizing these effects, newer drugs can be expensive and carry their own side effect profile. Prior research has suggested that neurokinin 1 receptor inhibitor(NK-1) antiemetics are overly prescribed. Using the package insert recommendations for aprepitant, an NK-1, we evaluated the frequency of its prophylactic use to prevent emesis in patients receiving systemic chemotherapy(chemo) with moderate to high emetogenic risk. Methods: Patients were identified from a third-party, administrative claims database. Using medical and pharmacy claims, any female with ICD-9/10 codes for both breast cancer and metastases diagnosed between Jan-2013 and Dec-2017, who initiated systemic chemo and received aprepitant prophylactically were selected. Chemo regimen emetogenic potential was scored using the Hesketh scale and aggregated into two cohorts: low risk (grade 1-2 = none- < 30%), and moderate-high risk (grade 3-5: > 30- > 60%). If patients received combination chemo, the assigned risk level was the highest risk of any individual agent. The frequency of NK-1 use for each risk cohort was calculated per line of therapy independent of the previous treatment. Results: 10,342 patients met the selection criteria with 2,868 patients administered moderate-high emetogenic risk chemotherapy regimens. Mean age at initiation of treatment was 61.7 years (SD = 12.12). By line, the aprepitant utilization rate was: 1 line(L) 43% ,2L 27%, 3L 18%, 4L 16%, 5L 11% and 6L 12%. Across all lines of therapy, aprepitant was used prophylactically in 23% of patients treated with high risk chemo regimens and in 2% of patients who had received low risk regimens. Conclusions: Prophylactic use of the NK-1 inhibitor aprepitant was less than 50% in 1L moderate-high emetogenic risk chemotherapy and declined with consecutive lines of treatment. NK-1 use with low risk regimens was minimal. Further research is needed to understand the pattern of use and clinical outcomes between moderate-high emetogenic risk patients who do and don't receive NK-1 antiemetic supportive care.


2019 ◽  
pp. bjophthalmol-2018-313569 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jacquelyn M Davanzo ◽  
Elaine M Binkley ◽  
James F Bena ◽  
Arun D Singh

Background/AimMolecular prognostication provides clinically applicable prognostic information for patients with uveal melanoma. Most ocular oncologists recommend intensive metastatic surveillance for patients with high-risk tumours. However, socioeconomic variables may limit a patient’s ability to adhere to recommended surveillance. We aim to analyse socioeconomic data from patients with uveal melanoma who underwent molecular prognostication to determine which variables influence adherence.MethodsThis was a retrospective review of 107 consecutive patients who were diagnosed and treated for uveal melanoma from January 2014 to June 2015. Patients were categorised into low/unknown risk and high risk for metastasis. The low-risk group was followed with hepatic ultrasonography every 6 months. The high-risk group was followed with more frequent hepatic imaging or incorporation of hepatic CT/MRI into the surveillance protocol. Adherence to surveillance recommendations was recorded for the first 2 years following primary treatment. Socioeconomic data including age at diagnosis, baseline systemic staging, gene expression profile status, marital status, insurance, distance of primary residence, median household income and Charlson Comorbidity Index score were recorded. Frequency/modality of imaging and metastatic status were also recorded.ResultsHigh-risk patients were more likely to develop metastasis than low-risk/unknown-risk patients (p<0.001). High-risk patients were more likely to have scans at baseline (p=0.008) and to have expected scans relative to low-risk/unknown-risk patients (p<0.001). There was no significant relationship between the likelihood of adhering to recommended surveillance and the other variables analysed.ConclusionsPrognostic risk level is a significant predictor of surveillance and remains significant after adjustment for socioeconomic variables. Adherence to surveillance recommendations for high-risk patients may translate into improved survival.


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