scholarly journals Decline and recovery of a large carnivore: environmental change and long-term trends in an endangered brown bear population

2016 ◽  
Vol 283 (1843) ◽  
pp. 20161832 ◽  
Author(s):  
Isabel Martínez Cano ◽  
Fernando González Taboada ◽  
Javier Naves ◽  
Alberto Fernández-Gil ◽  
Thorsten Wiegand
Keyword(s):  
Brown Bear ◽  
Ecological Problem ◽  
Large Mammals ◽  
Reproductive Suppression ◽  
Ecological Traits ◽  
Cantabrian Range ◽  
Alternative Hypotheses ◽  
Long Term Trends

Understanding what factors drive fluctuations in the abundance of endangered species is a difficult ecological problem but a major requirement to attain effective management and conservation success. The ecological traits of large mammals make this task even more complicated, calling for integrative approaches. We develop a framework combining individual-based modelling and statistical inference to assess alternative hypotheses on brown bear dynamics in the Cantabrian range (Iberian Peninsula). Models including the effect of environmental factors on mortality rates were able to reproduce three decades of variation in the number of females with cubs of the year ( Fcoy ), including the decline that put the population close to extinction in the mid-nineties, and the following increase in brown bear numbers. This external effect prevailed over density-dependent mechanisms (sexually selected infanticide and female reproductive suppression), with a major impact of climate driven changes in resource availability and a secondary role of changes in human pressure. Predicted changes in population structure revealed a nonlinear relationship between total abundance and the number of Fcoy , highlighting the risk of simple projections based on indirect abundance indices. This study demonstrates the advantages of integrative, mechanistic approaches and provides a widely applicable framework to improve our understanding of wildlife dynamics.

Economic Wood Supply — Problems and Opportunities: Choices for Canada's Forest Industry

1990 ◽  
Vol 66 (1) ◽  
pp. 32-34 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roger A. Sedjo
Keyword(s):  
Forest Resource ◽  
Plantation Forest ◽  
Broad Perspective ◽  
Tropical Regions ◽  
Intensive Forest Management ◽  
Second Growth ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Intensively Managed

This paper examines the role of Canada in world forest resource production. A broad overview of global timber supply is presented together with an overview of likely future sources. The discussion covers both regions of supply as well as the nature of the forest resource — old growth, second growth, and plantation forest. Within this broad perspective some long-term trends and tendencies are identified. The growing role of plantation and intensively managed forestry is discussed. Canada's strengths and liabilities as a forest resource supplier are discussed within this context. It is argued that Canada cannot compete successfully with semi-tropical regions in intensive forest management. Rather, Canada appears to have the features necessary to compete in world wood markets using a strategy of extensive forestry that takes advantage of Canada's vast forest land areas.

Irregular Migration, Human Smuggling, and the Eastern Enlargement of the European Union

2007 ◽  
Vol 41 (2) ◽  
pp. 291-315 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Jandl
Keyword(s):  
Eu Enlargement ◽  
Human Smuggling ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Eastern Enlargement ◽  
Irregular Migration ◽  
Ample Evidence ◽  
Recent Developments ◽  
Long Term Trends

This article examines the consequences of the latest round of EU-Enlargement in May 2004 on irregular migration across Central and Eastern Europe. Drawing on a unique collection of both quantitative and qualitative data related to irregular migration and human smuggling, the article first presents some long-term trends in irregular migration across the region before taking up more recent developments in 2003 and 2004. While border apprehensions have broadly declined since about 2000 there is ample evidence for an increasing role of human smugglers in facilitating irregular migration. In addition, there are noticeable changes in the modus operandi of human smugglers.

MISSION AND MANPOWER

PEDIATRICS ◽  
1963 ◽  
Vol 31 (2) ◽  
pp. 193-196
Author(s):  
ALEX J. STEIGMAN
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Health Care ◽  
Child Health ◽  
Health Services ◽  
The United States ◽  
Child Health Services ◽  
Child Health Care ◽  
Long Term Trends

THE SPECIAL ARTICLE by Stewart and Pennell, "Pediatric Manpower in the United States and Its Implications," is interesting and timely. It will be viewed differently by various readers, by some as seen from their personal perch, by others in terms of the broad reaches past and present of pediatrics as a discipline. The purposes of the Special Article are to highlight the manpower situation and to point out long-term trends and implications in the light of the growing responsibility of pediatrics. The authors say that one requires a "delineation of the role of the specialty of pediatrics in child health care," and "while this role may be shared by other types of physicians, the responsibility for the development, maintenance, and improvement of child health services was clearly assumed by pediatrics when, as a specialty, it adopted as its objectives the protection and promotion of the health of children."

The Supreme Court as a Countermajoritarian Institution? The Impact of Public Opinion on Supreme Court Decisions

1993 ◽  
Vol 87 (1) ◽  
pp. 87-101 ◽  
Author(s):  
William Mishler ◽  
Reginald S. Sheehan
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Supreme Court ◽  
Membership Change ◽  
Collective Decisions ◽  
The Supreme Court ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Time Series Analyses ◽  
The Impact

Although normative questions about the role of the Supreme Court as a countermajoritarian institution have long excited controversy in democratic theory, empirical questions about how far the Court acts contrary to majoritarian opinion have received less attention. Time series analyses for the period 1956–89 indicate the existence of a reciprocal and positive relationship between long-term trends in aggregate public opinion and the Court's collective decisions. The Court's ideological composition changes in response to previous shifts in the partisan and ideological orientation of the president and Congress. The Court also responds to public opinion at the margins even in the absence of membership change. Since 1981, the relationship has vanished or turned negative in direction. The Court's ideological balance has been upset by an unbroken string of conservative-to-moderate appointments, thereby undermining the dynamics that promote judicial responsiveness and raising questions about the majoritarianism of the contemporary and future Court.

scholarly journals Geomagnetic and ionospheric data analysis over Antarctica: a contribution to the long term trends investigation

2008 ◽  
Vol 26 (5) ◽  
pp. 1173-1179 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Alfonsi ◽  
G. De Franceschi ◽  
A. De Santis
Keyword(s):  
Careful Analysis ◽  
Secular Change ◽  
Solar Cycles ◽  
Geomagnetic Reversal ◽  
Latitudinal Dependence ◽  
Hourly Data ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Different Levels

Abstract. The analysis of the foF2 ionosonde data acquired at mid and high latitudes reveals a general decreasing of the F2 plasma frequency over more than two solar cycles, showing steeper trends over the high latitude stations and, in particular, over Antarctica. A careful analysis of the foF2 hourly data, opportunely catalogued in different levels of magneto-ionospheric conditions, highlights the role of the geomagnetic activity in the secular change of the ionosphere and confirms the latitudinal dependence of the trends. These results suggest interesting relations with some recent findings on the rapid decrease of some important physical and statistical quantities related to the geomagnetic field over the whole globe and mainly in Antarctica. In this paper we discuss the possibility of a connection between the ionospheric trends and a possible imminent geomagnetic reversal or excursion.

Role of asbestos clearance in explaining long-term risk of pleural and peritoneal cancer: a pooled analysis of cohort studies

2019 ◽  
Vol 76 (9) ◽  
pp. 611-616
Author(s):  
Francesco Barone-Adesi ◽  
Daniela Ferrante ◽  
Elisabetta Chellini ◽  
Enzo Merler ◽  
Venere Pavone ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Epidemiological Studies ◽  
Pooled Analysis ◽  
External Exposure ◽  
Multistage Model ◽  
Peritoneal Cancer ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Better Than

ObjectivesModels based on the multistage theory of cancer predict that rates of malignant mesothelioma continuously increase with time since first exposure (TSFE) to asbestos, even after the end of external exposure. However, recent epidemiological studies suggest that mesothelioma rates level off many years after first exposure to asbestos. A gradual clearance of asbestos from the lungs has been suggested as a possible explanation for this phenomenon. We analysed long-term trends of pleural and peritoneal cancer mortality in subjects exposed to asbestos to evaluate whether such trends were consistent with the clearance hypothesis.MethodsWe used data from a pool of 43 Italian asbestos cohorts (51 801 subjects). The role of asbestos clearance was explored using the traditional mesothelioma multistage model, generalised to include a term representing elimination of fibres over time.ResultsRates of pleural cancer increased until 40 years of TSFE, but remained stable thereafter. On the other hand, we observed a monotonic increase of peritoneal cancer with TSFE. The model taking into account asbestos clearance fitted the data better than the traditional one for pleural (p=0.004) but not for peritoneal (p=0.09) cancer.ConclusionsRates of pleural cancer do not increase indefinitely after the exposure to asbestos, but eventually reach a plateau. This trend is well described by a model accounting for a gradual elimination of the asbestos fibres. These results are relevant for the prediction of future rates of mesothelioma and in asbestos litigations.

scholarly journals COMPOSITION OF INVESTMENT IN INNOVATION PROCESSES

2020 ◽  
pp. 43-49
Author(s):  
E. N. Kononova ◽  
A. N. Kazakova
Keyword(s):  
Russian Federation ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Innovative Products ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Innovation Processes

The article analyzes long-term trends in innovation processes in the Russian economy. The dynamics of the share of innovation-active organizations, the share of innovative products, and costs for innovation in 2010-2019 was considered. The role of investment as a factor in the intensity of innovation processes was shown. Ranking of roadblocks against innovations was carried out based on the analysis of sociological surveys. The composition of investment in innovations by sources of financing and problems of their attraction in the economy of the Russian federation were revealed.

Structure of the Local Tiers in Germany

2016 ◽  
pp. 51-70 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jochen Franzke
Keyword(s):  
Citizen Participation ◽  
Public Management ◽  
Local Politics ◽  
Local Governance ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Legal Framework ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
Long Term Trends

This chapter analyses basic long-term trends in local governance in Germany in their functional, political, territorial and administrative dimensions. The traditions and legal framework of German local self-government form the starting point of the chapter. Subsequently, the role of the local level in the German federal system and the level of its autonomy are analysed. After that, the most important political-administrative actors in local governance examines, such as councilors, mayors, local administration, local branches of political parties and free voters associations. In describing the long-term trends and challenges in German local politics, special attention is paid to local public management, local democracy and citizen participation. Finally, the chapter ends with a summary of the most important aspects of the development of the municipalities and districts in Germany and with a view towards further reform.

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