scholarly journals On some fundamental challenges in monitoring epidemics

2021 ◽  
Vol 380 (2214) ◽  
Author(s):  
Vaiva Vasiliauskaite ◽  
Nino Antulov-Fantulin ◽  
Dirk Helbing
Keyword(s):  
Disease Surveillance ◽  
Data Science ◽  
Network Effects ◽  
Nonlinear Differential Equations ◽  
Ground Truth ◽  
Measurement Model ◽  
Measurement Process ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Biased Sampling ◽  
Epidemic Monitoring

Epidemic models often reflect characteristic features of infectious spreading processes by coupled nonlinear differential equations considering different states of health (such as susceptible, infectious or recovered). This compartmental modelling approach, however, delivers an incomplete picture of the dynamics of epidemics, as it neglects stochastic and network effects, and the role of the measurement process, on which the estimation of epidemiological parameters and incidence values relies. In order to study the related issues, we combine established epidemiological spreading models with a measurement model of the testing process, considering the problems of false positives and false negatives as well as biased sampling. Studying a model-generated ground truth in conjunction with simulated observation processes (virtual measurements) allows one to gain insights into the fundamental limitations of purely data-driven methods when assessing the epidemic situation. We conclude that epidemic monitoring, simulation, and forecasting are wicked problems, as applying a conventional data-driven approach to a complex system with nonlinear dynamics, network effects and uncertainty can be misleading. Nevertheless, some of the errors can be corrected for, using scientific knowledge of the spreading dynamics and the measurement process. We conclude that such corrections should generally be part of epidemic monitoring, modelling and forecasting efforts. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Data science approaches to infectious disease surveillance’.

scholarly journals The INSESS-COVID19 Project. Evaluating the Impact of the COVID19 in Social Vulnerability While Preserving Privacy of Participants from Minority Subpopulations

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 3110
Author(s):  
Karina Gibert ◽  
Xavier Angerri
Keyword(s):  
Social Vulnerability ◽  
Data Science ◽  
Policy Design ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Informed Decision Making ◽  
Technological Infrastructure ◽  
Moderate Number ◽  
Reliable Diagnosis ◽  
Multivariate Relationships ◽  
The Impact

In this paper, the results of the project INSESS-COVID19 are presented, as part of a special call owing to help in the COVID19 crisis in Catalonia. The technological infrastructure and methodology developed in this project allows the quick screening of a territory for a quick a reliable diagnosis in front of an unexpected situation by providing relevant decisional information to support informed decision-making and strategy and policy design. One of the challenges of the project was to extract valuable information from direct participatory processes where specific target profiles of citizens are consulted and to distribute the participation along the whole territory. Having a lot of variables with a moderate number of citizens involved (in this case about 1000) implies the risk of violating statistical secrecy when multivariate relationships are analyzed, thus putting in risk the anonymity of the participants as well as their safety when vulnerable populations are involved, as is the case of INSESS-COVID19. In this paper, the entire data-driven methodology developed in the project is presented and the dealing of the small subgroups of population for statistical secrecy preserving described. The methodology is reusable with any other underlying questionnaire as the data science and reporting parts are totally automatized.

DATA-DRIVEN DISCOVERY OF MATERIAL STATES IN COMPOSITES UNDER FATIGUE LOADS

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
MUTHU RAM ELENCHEZHIAN ◽  
VAMSEE VADLAMUDI ◽  
RASSEL RAIHAN ◽  
KENNETH REIFSNIDER
Keyword(s):  
Domain Knowledge ◽  
Data Science ◽  
Damage Tolerance ◽  
Electrochemical Impedance ◽  
Research Work ◽  
Rate Of Change ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Develop Model ◽  
Damage Development ◽  
Fatigue Loads

Our community has a widespread knowledge on the damage tolerance and durability of the composites, developed over the past few decades by various experimental and computational efforts. Several methods have been used to understand the damage behavior and henceforth predict the material states such as residual strength (damage tolerance) and life (durability) of these material systems. Electrochemical Impedance Spectroscopy (EIS) and Broadband Dielectric Spectroscopy (BbDS) are such methods, which have been proven to identify the damage states in composites. Our previous work using BbDS method has proven to serve as precursor to identify the damage levels, indicating the beginning of end of life of the material. As a change in the material state variable is triggered by damage development, the rate of change of these states indicates the rate of damage interaction and can effectively predict impending failure. The Data-Driven Discovery of Models (D3M) [1] aims to develop model discovery systems, enabling users with domain knowledge but no data science background to create empirical models of real, complex processes. These D3M methods have been developed severely over the years in various applications and their implementation on real-time prediction for complex parameters such as material states in composites need to be trusted based on physics and domain knowledge. In this research work, we propose the use of data-driven methods combined with BbDS and progressive damage analysis to identify and hence predict material states in composites, subjected to fatigue loads.

Data Science and real world health data improve precision for diagnosis: Acute Kidney Injury, acute-on-chronic and Chronic Kidney Disease (Preprint)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karen Triep ◽  
Alexander Benedikt Leichtle ◽  
Martin Meister ◽  
Georg Martin Fiedler ◽  
Olga Endrich
Keyword(s):  
Chronic Kidney Disease ◽  
Kidney Disease ◽  
Data Science ◽  
Query Language ◽  
Correct Diagnosis ◽  
Kidney Injury ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
World Health ◽  
Discharge Data ◽  
The Individual

BACKGROUND The criteria for the diagnosis of kidney disease outlined in “The Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO)” are based on a patient’s current, historical and baseline data. The diagnosis of acute (AKI), chronic (CKD) and acute-on-chronic kidney disease requires past measurements of creatinine and back-calculation and the interpretation of several laboratory values over a certain period. Diagnosis may be hindered by unclear definition of the individual creatinine baseline and rough ranges of norm values set without adjustment for age, ethnicity, comorbidities and treatment. Classification of the correct diagnosis and the sufficient staging improves coding, data quality, reimbursement, the choice of therapeutic approach and the patient’s outcome. OBJECTIVE With the help of a complex rule-engine a data-driven approach to assign the diagnoses acute, chronic and acute-on-chronic kidney disease is applied. METHODS Real-time and retrospective data from the hospital’s Clinical Data Warehouse of in- and outpatient cases treated between 2014 – 2019 is used. Delta serum creatinine, baseline values and admission and discharge data are analyzed. A KDIGO based standard query language (SQL) algorithm applies specific diagnosis (ICD) codes to inpatient stays. To measure the effect on diagnosis, Text Mining on discharge documentation is conducted. RESULTS We show that this approach yields an increased number of diagnoses as well as higher precision in documentation and coding (unspecific diagnosis ICD N19* coded in % of N19 generated 17.8 in 2016, 3.3 in 2019). CONCLUSIONS Our data-driven method supports the process and reliability of diagnosis and staging and improves the quality of documentation and data. Measuring patients’ outcome will be the next step of the project.

Against generalisation: Data-driven decisions need context to be human-compatible

2021 ◽  
pp. 026638212110619
Author(s):  
Sharon Richardson
Keyword(s):  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
Real World ◽  
Data Science ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Theoretical Frameworks ◽  
The Past ◽  
Real World Applications ◽  
Contextual Framework ◽  
Data Driven Decisions

During the past two decades, there have been a number of breakthroughs in the fields of data science and artificial intelligence, made possible by advanced machine learning algorithms trained through access to massive volumes of data. However, their adoption and use in real-world applications remains a challenge. This paper posits that a key limitation in making AI applicable has been a failure to modernise the theoretical frameworks needed to evaluate and adopt outcomes. Such a need was anticipated with the arrival of the digital computer in the 1950s but has remained unrealised. This paper reviews how the field of data science emerged and led to rapid breakthroughs in algorithms underpinning research into artificial intelligence. It then discusses the contextual framework now needed to advance the use of AI in real-world decisions that impact human lives and livelihoods.

scholarly journals Data competence maturity: developing data-driven decision making

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 139-158 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas G. Cech ◽  
Trent J. Spaulding ◽  
Joseph A. Cazier
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Secondary Education ◽  
Data Science ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Maturity Model ◽  
Data Driven Decision Making ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Development Data ◽  
Education Performance

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to lay out the data competence maturity model (DCMM) and discuss how the application of the model can serve as a foundation for a measured and deliberate use of data in secondary education. Design/methodology/approach Although the model is new, its implications, and its application are derived from key findings and best practices from the software development, data analytics and secondary education performance literature. These principles can guide educators to better manage student and operational outcomes. This work builds and applies the DCMM model to secondary education. Findings The conceptual model reveals significant opportunities to improve data-driven decision making in schools and local education agencies (LEAs). Moving past the first and second stages of the data competency maturity model should allow educators to better incorporate data into the regular decision-making process. Practical implications Moving up the DCMM to better integrate data into their decision-making process has the potential to produce profound improvements for schools and LEAs. Data science is about making better decisions. Understanding the path laid out in the DCMM to helping an organization move to a more mature data-driven decision-making process will help improve both student and operational outcomes. Originality/value This paper brings a new concept, the DCMM, to the educational literature and discusses how these principles can be applied to improve decision making by integrating them into their decision-making process and trying to help the organization mature within this framework.

scholarly journals TightCap: 3D Human Shape Capture with Clothing Tightness Field

2022 ◽  
Vol 41 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-17
Author(s):  
Xin Chen ◽  
Anqi Pang ◽  
Wei Yang ◽  
Peihao Wang ◽  
Lan Xu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Ground Truth ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Optimization Scheme ◽  
High Quality ◽  
3D Scan ◽  
Multi Stage ◽  
Geometry Image

In this article, we present TightCap, a data-driven scheme to capture both the human shape and dressed garments accurately with only a single three-dimensional (3D) human scan, which enables numerous applications such as virtual try-on, biometrics, and body evaluation. To break the severe variations of the human poses and garments, we propose to model the clothing tightness field—the displacements from the garments to the human shape implicitly in the global UV texturing domain. To this end, we utilize an enhanced statistical human template and an effective multi-stage alignment scheme to map the 3D scan into a hybrid 2D geometry image. Based on this 2D representation, we propose a novel framework to predict clothing tightness field via a novel tightness formulation, as well as an effective optimization scheme to further reconstruct multi-layer human shape and garments under various clothing categories and human postures. We further propose a new clothing tightness dataset of human scans with a large variety of clothing styles, poses, and corresponding ground-truth human shapes to stimulate further research. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our TightCap to achieve the high-quality human shape and dressed garments reconstruction, as well as the further applications for clothing segmentation, retargeting, and animation.

scholarly journals Collaboration between Government and Research Community to Respond to COVID-19: Israel’s Case

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 208
Author(s):  
Mor Peleg ◽  
Amnon Reichman ◽  
Sivan Shachar ◽  
Tamir Gadot ◽  
Meytal Avgil Tsadok ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Health Policy ◽  
Data Science ◽  
Research Community ◽  
Remote Access ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Multidisciplinary Teams ◽  
Science Methods ◽  
Research Environments ◽  
Future Data ◽  
The Government

Triggered by the COVID-19 crisis, Israel’s Ministry of Health (MoH) held a virtual datathon based on deidentified governmental data. Organized by a multidisciplinary committee, Israel’s research community was invited to offer insights to help solve COVID-19 policy challenges. The Datathon was designed to develop operationalizable data-driven models to address COVID-19 health policy challenges. Specific relevant challenges were defined and diverse, reliable, up-to-date, deidentified governmental datasets were extracted and tested. Secure remote-access research environments were established. Registration was open to all citizens. Around a third of the applicants were accepted, and they were teamed to balance areas of expertise and represent all sectors of the community. Anonymous surveys for participants and mentors were distributed to assess usefulness and points for improvement and retention for future datathons. The Datathon included 18 multidisciplinary teams, mentored by 20 data scientists, 6 epidemiologists, 5 presentation mentors, and 12 judges. The insights developed by the three winning teams are currently considered by the MoH as potential data science methods relevant for national policies. Based on participants’ feedback, the process for future data-driven regulatory responses for health crises was improved. Participants expressed increased trust in the MoH and readiness to work with the government on these or future projects.

PROMOTING STATISTICS IN THE ERA OF DATA SCIENCE AND DATA-DRIVEN INNOVATIONS

2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 226-237
Author(s):  
IBRAHIM SIDI ZAKARI
Keyword(s):  
Communication Skills ◽  
Data Science ◽  
Statistics Education ◽  
Effective Interaction ◽  
Oral Communication ◽  
Public Institutions ◽  
Future Generations ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Research Journal

This paper aims at highlighting initiatives in developing future statisticians directed at high-school and university levels in Niger. More specifically, it focuses on collaborations, partnerships, outreach initiatives and supporting mechanisms, which may contribute to increase engagement and interest in and attraction to the field of statistics in the era of data science and data-driven innovations. Providing sufficient exposure to modern statistical analysis, computational and graphical tools, written and oral communication skills, and the ever-growing interdisciplinary use of statistics are key activities for building future generations of statisticians. Furthermore, current curricula as well as pedagogical approaches, teaching materials, and assessment methods need to be re-thought in order tomeet the requirements of the skills needed in the 21st century ensuring effective interaction with scientists, public institutions, industry, civil society, and policy makers. First published February 2020 at Statistics Education Research Journal Archives

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