scholarly journals How does variance in fertility change over the demographic transition?

2016 ◽  
Vol 371 (1692) ◽  
pp. 20150155 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel J. Hruschka ◽  
Oskar Burger
Keyword(s):  
Poisson Process ◽  
Fertility Transition ◽  
Upper Bounds ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Number Of Children ◽  
Individual Determinants ◽  
Changing Patterns ◽  
Ideal Number

Most work on the human fertility transition has focused on declines in mean fertility. However, understanding changes in the variance of reproductive outcomes can be equally important for evolutionary questions about the heritability of fertility, individual determinants of fertility and changing patterns of reproductive skew. Here, we document how variance in completed fertility among women (45–49 years) differs across 200 surveys in 72 low- to middle-income countries where fertility transitions are currently in progress at various stages. Nearly all (91%) of samples exhibit variance consistent with a Poisson process of fertility, which places systematic, and often severe, theoretical upper bounds on the proportion of variance that can be attributed to individual differences. In contrast to the pattern of total variance, these upper bounds increase from high- to mid-fertility samples, then decline again as samples move from mid to low fertility. Notably, the lowest fertility samples often deviate from a Poisson process. This suggests that as populations move to low fertility their reproduction shifts from a rate-based process to a focus on an ideal number of children. We discuss the implications of these findings for predicting completed fertility from individual-level variables.

scholarly journals Do Spousal Intimate Relationships Affect Fertility Intentions and Preferences?

2021 ◽  
pp. 0192513X2110160
Author(s):  
Amir Erfani ◽  
Roya Jahanbakhsh
Keyword(s):  
Intimate Relationships ◽  
Mate Selection ◽  
Risk Profile ◽  
Fertility Intentions ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
Social Forces ◽  
Number Of Children ◽  
Ideal Number ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Relationship

The fertility influence of spousal intimate relationships is unknown. Drawing on the Giddens’s theory of transformation of intimacy, this study proposed a hypothesis that couples supporting egalitarian intimate relationships, with a greater risk profile attached to the relationship, and having less attachments to the external normative pressures shaping marital relations, are more likely to have low-fertility intentions and preferences. Using data from a self-administered pilot survey ( n = 375 prospective grooms and brides) designed by the authors, and employing multivariate regression models, we found that the lower attachment to external social forces in mate selection was associated with the lower ideal number of children, and those with a greater spousal relational egalitarianism and a higher risk profile attached to their relationships preferred lower number of children and were less likely to intend to have children after marriage. The study sheds new light on the determinants of low fertility.

scholarly journals KASUS KELAHIRAN YANG TIDAK DIINGINKAN DI DAERAH ISTIMEWA YOGYAKARTA ANALISIS DATA SDKI 1991

Populasi ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Helly Prajitno Soetjipto ◽  
Sukamdi Sukamdi
Keyword(s):  
Family Planning ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Family Planning Program ◽  
Married Women ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
Planning Program ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Number Of Children ◽  
Ideal Number ◽  
The Relationship

This study is intended to pursue the previous attempts in examining the relationship between low fertility regime and the case of births which had been delivered unintendedly in Yogyakarta. Using an unweighted sample of 575 married women in the Indonesian Demographic and Health Survey 1991, this study found that 75 cases out of 474 last birth children were bom unintendedly (beyond the range of ideal number of children). Most of the 75 cases were bom by women who have 2 or 3 ideal number of children and by a devoted Family Planning acceptors. Most of the women have limited accesses in education and economic activities. The case of unwantednes were found predominantly among women older than 25 years. Even though only a tentative findings, this study shed some light to the fact that Family Planning program to some extent may contribute to the rate of unwantedness. Apolicy is needed especially in reducing the risk of unwantedness among the low-income women.

scholarly journals Social contexts of fertility desire among non-childbearing young men and women aged 15–24 years in Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Joshua O. Akinyemi ◽  
Clifford O. Odimegwu
Keyword(s):  
Family Planning ◽  
Young Men ◽  
Negative Attitude ◽  
Large Family ◽  
Wealth Index ◽  
Social Contexts ◽  
Men And Women ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Number Of Children ◽  
Ideal Number

Abstract Background Reduction in ideal number of children has been suggested as a necessary precursor for fertility decline especially in high fertility countries of Western and Central Africa. In this study, we explored the social contexts of fertility desires by documenting the effects of individual, household as well as contextual characteristics among young men and women in Nigeria. Methods Data source was the male and female recode file of 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey. Analytical sample comprised 2674 males and 9637 females aged 15–24 years. The main outcome variable was desire for large family size (DLFS) defined as ideal number of children greater than four. Analysis involved use of descriptive statistics and random-effect logit models fitted in four stages. Results DLFS was 71% among young men and 53% in women. Individual-level factors associated with DLFS among men includes Islam religion (OR = 3.95, CI 2.68–5.83), household size (OR = 1.05) and richer (OR = 0.47, CI 0.29–0.75) or richest wealth index (OR = 0.28, CI 0.16–0.75). Geo-political region and high level of negative attitude to family planning (OR = 1.72, CI 1.23–2.40) were the main contextual factors associated with DLFS. For women, individual-level correlates were education, religion, ethnicity, marital status, household size, and wealth index. Contextual factors include geo-political region, community education (OR = 0.68, CI 0.52–0.89), child mortality experience (OR = 1.29, CI 1.11–1.51) and negative attitude to family planning (OR = 1.36, CI 1.13–1.65). The influence of religion, household wealth and attitude to family planning differ between young men and women. Conclusion Active communication and programmatic interventions are needed so that desire for large family size by young men and women do not become a clog for fertility transition in Nigeria.

THE CONSISTENCY AND VALIDITY OF REPRODUCTIVE ATTITUDES: EVIDENCE FROM MOROCCO

1998 ◽  
Vol 30 (4) ◽  
pp. 439-455 ◽  
Author(s):  
AKINRINOLA BANKOLE ◽  
CHARLES F. WESTOFF
Keyword(s):  
Demographic And Health Surveys ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Number Of Children ◽  
Fertility Behaviour ◽  
Reproductive Intentions ◽  
Subsequent Fertility ◽  
Planning Status ◽  
Ideal Number ◽  
The Individual

Information on reproductive attitudes is now routinely collected in fertility surveys in developing countries, and has become very important for understanding fertility behaviour. The quality of this information, however, is rarely assessed, partly due to lack of necessary data. In this paper, the recently completed panel survey in Morocco by the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) was used to investigate the consistency of reporting of ideal number of children, reproductive intentions and the planning status of the last birth. The validity of reproductive intentions for subsequent fertility behaviour was also examined. The findings indicate that the three measures of reproductive attitudes are subject to different degrees of measurement error. The measure of reproductive intentions is the most consistent of the three, followed by ideal number of children. The latter is much more consistent at the aggregate level than at the individual level. The reliability of the planning status of the last birth is marred, mainly by an unwanted child being reclassified as 'wanted' with time since the birth of the child. The reproductive intentions of women were also found to be positively related to their subsequent fertility.

scholarly journals Costly children: the motivations for parental investment in children in a low fertility context

Genus ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 77 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Anne H. Gauthier ◽  
Petra W. de Jong
Keyword(s):  
Parental Investment ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Time Investment ◽  
Investment In Children ◽  
Theoretical Perspectives ◽  
Self Development ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Human And Social Capital ◽  
Large Investment

AbstractWhile the literature has documented a general increase in parental investment in children, both in terms of financial and time investment, the motives for this increase remain unclear. This paper aims at shedding light on these motives by examining parents’ own narratives of their parenting experiences from the vantage point of three theoretical perspectives. In doing so, the paper brings side-by-side the goal of providing children with human and social capital to improve their future labour market prospects, the pressures on parents to conform to new societal standards of good and intensive parenting, and the experience of parenting as part of self-development. The data come from a qualitative study of middle-income parents in Canada and the USA. The results provide some support for each of these perspectives, while also revealing how they jointly help explain parents’ large investment in their children as well as the tensions and contradictions that come with it.

On the rate of Poisson process approximation to a Bernoulli process

1997 ◽  
Vol 34 (4) ◽  
pp. 898-907 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aihua Xia
Keyword(s):  
Poisson Process ◽  
Point Process ◽  
Discrete Time ◽  
Wasserstein Distance ◽  
Stein’S Method ◽  
Upper Bounds ◽  
Stein's Method ◽  
Bernoulli Process ◽  
Logarithmic Factor ◽  
Process Approximation

This note gives the rate for a Wasserstein distance between the distribution of a Bernoulli process on discrete time and that of a Poisson process, using Stein's method and Palm theory. The result here highlights the possibility that the logarithmic factor involved in the upper bounds established by Barbour and Brown (1992) and Barbour et al. (1995) may be superfluous in the true Wasserstein distance between the distributions of a point process and a Poisson process.

Fertility intentions among the working population of Dalian City born between 1980 and 1989

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Hongyan Qiu ◽  
Qun Zhang ◽  
Jin Zhang ◽  
Qingshan Wang ◽  
Lihong Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Family Income ◽  
Reproductive Behaviour ◽  
Fertility Intentions ◽  
Second Child ◽  
Number Of Children ◽  
Child Policy ◽  
Future Fertility ◽  
The Future ◽  
Dalian City ◽  
Ideal Number

Abstract In October 2015, the Chinese Government announced that the one-child policy had finally been replaced by a universal two-child policy. China’s universal two-child policy is highly significant because, for the first time in 36 years, no one in an urban city is restricted to having just one child. This cross-sectional study was conducted to explore future fertility intentions and factors influencing individual reproductive behaviour (whether to have two children) in Dalian City. A total of 1370 respondents were interviewed. The respondents’ mean ideal number of children was only 1.73, and urban respondents’ sex preference was symmetrical. A total of 19.0% of the respondents were unmarried, 64.5% were married and had childbearing experience and only 6.3% of married respondents had two children. Among the 1370 participants, 30.4% stated that they would have a second child, while 69.6% refused to have a second child in the future. Binary logistic regression analysis (Model 1) showed that the following characteristics were associated with having only one child in the future: being female, being older, having a lower education level, being born in Dalian, having a lower family income and reporting one child as the ideal number of children. Model 2 (comprising only respondents with childbearing experience) showed that respondents who were female, had a lower family income and were unable to obtain additional financial support from parents were more likely to intend to stick at one child. In addition, respondents’ ideal number of children and childbearing experiences had a significant influence on future fertility intentions. These results suggest that fertility intentions and reproductive behaviours are still below those needed for replacement level fertility in Dalian City. China’s policymakers should pay more attention to these factors (socioeconomic characteristics, economic factors, desired number of children and childbearing experiences) and try to increase individual reproductive behaviour.

scholarly journals Childlessness, Individual Socioeconomic Resources, and Health: Exploring Variation in 20 Countries

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. 515-516
Author(s):  
Nekehia Quashie ◽  
Christine Mair ◽  
Radoslaw Antczak ◽  
Bruno Arpino
Keyword(s):  
Older Adults ◽  
Health Outcomes ◽  
Health Indicators ◽  
Data Repository ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Socioeconomic Resources ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Childless older adults may be at risk for poorer health cross-nationally, yet most studies on this topic analyze only a small number of countries and only 1 or 2 health outcomes. To our knowledge, two papers exist that explore associations between childlessness and multiple indicators of health using data from a large number of regionally diverse countries (e.g., 20 countries from North America, Asia, and Europe), but neither study includes an examination of socioeconomic resources. The level of health risk faced by childless older adults is likely to be distinctly shaped by older adults’ socioeconomic resources (e.g., education, income, wealth). Associations between childlessness, socioeconomic resources, and health may also differ by country context. Using harmonized, cross-national data for adults aged 50 and older across 20 high- and middle-income countries (United States (HRS), European Union (SHARE), Mexico (MHAS), and China (CHARLS) from the Gateway to Global Aging data repository), we explore if and how individual-level socioeconomic resources (income, education, wealth) moderate associations between childlessness and five health indicators (self-rated health, ADL limitations, IADL limitations, chronic conditions, and depression). Results suggest that associations between childlessness and health outcomes vary by individual socioeconomic resources in some country contexts, but not in others. We discuss these findings in light of the impact of individual-level socioeconomic resources on older adults’ support options and health outcomes cross-nationally.

Housing as a Fertility Trap: The Inability of States, Markets, or Families to Provide Adequate Housing in East Central Europe

2020 ◽  
Vol 34 (4) ◽  
pp. 937-961
Author(s):  
Kristin Makszin ◽  
Dorothee Bohle
Keyword(s):  
Central Europe ◽  
Housing Finance ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
Household Formation ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
East Central Europe ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
East Central ◽  
Demographic Challenges ◽  
Rental Markets

This article belongs to the special cluster, “Politics and Current Demographic Challenges in Central and Eastern Europe,” guest-edited by Tsveta Petrova and Tomasz Inglot. We explore housing finance and policy in East Central Europe to understand the connection between housing, in particular independent household formation, and the demographic crisis. The combination of high debt-free homeownership rates with illiquid housing finance and limited rental markets produces conditions where housing restricts independent household formation and likely has a restrictive effect on fertility. We first assess the housing regime type in East Central Europe and demonstrate that it closely corresponds to the “difficult housing regime” in Southern Europe, which has well-established negative effects on independent household formation and fertility. Then we present a detailed case study of Hungary, which is a country with very low fertility rates and substantial changes in housing finance and policy over time. In particular, the issue was recently politicized through housing policies centered on household formation to counter the demographic crisis. We present a detailed analysis of policies related to access to housing for young adults through increased access to markets or state housing support schemes. These policies attempted to reduce dependence on families, but after the crisis, we find that these policies reinforce, rather than challenge, dependence on families for housing solutions, thereby limiting independent household formation. While these policies may serve a rhetorical role demonstrating a state response to the demographic crisis, we claim that their impact on fertility can be at most minimal because of stringent restrictions in access that concentrates on upper-middle-income households and limited financial commitment.

scholarly journals Women in Blue: Structural and Individual Determinants of Sex Segregation in Blue-Collar Occupations

2019 ◽  
Vol 33 (3) ◽  
pp. 410-438 ◽  
Author(s):  
Margarita Torre
Keyword(s):  
Social Reproduction ◽  
Blue Collar ◽  
Gender Composition ◽  
Vocational Education And Training ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Parental Background ◽  
Individual Determinants ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
The Individual ◽  
And Training

The number of women occupying male-dominated blue-collar jobs continues to be very low. This study examines segregation in the blue-collar trades, taking into consideration both structural and individual factors. Using nationally representative data for 25 countries, the study shows that segregation in the blue-collar sector does not vary with the strength of vocational education and training programs. At the individual level, findings reveal higher degrees of social reproduction among working-class families, but parental background alone does not fully account for the gender composition of the sector in which children end up working. Overall, the findings point to the existence of a socializing mechanism that entrenches horizontal segregation in the blue-collar sector. The study indicates that to reduce segregation in the blue-collar fields, policies must address this prior mechanism, both at the structural and individual level.

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