scholarly journals Predicting intensities of Zika infection and microcephaly using transmission intensities of other arboviruses

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Isabel Rodriguez-Barraquer ◽  
Henrik Salje ◽  
Justin Lessler ◽  
Derek AT Cummings

The World Health Organization has declared Zika Virus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern due to the virus' emergence in multiple countries globally and the possible association of Zika virus with microcephaly and neurological disorders. There is a clear need to identify risk factors associated with Zika infection and microcephaly in order to target surveillance, testing and intervention efforts. Here, we show that there is a strong correlation between the incidence of Zika in Colombian departments and the force of infection (but not the crude incidence) of dengue, a virus transmitted by the same mosquito species, Aedes aegypti (R2 = 0.41, p<0.001). Furthermore, we show that there is also a strong correlation between the incidence of microcephaly in Brazilian states and the force of infection of dengue (R2 = 0.36, p<0.001). Because dengue, Zika and Chikungunya are transmitted by the same vector, these associations provide further support to the supposition that Zika virus infection during pregnancy causes microcephaly. In addition, they provide an opportunity to project the expected incidence of microcephaly in multiple dengue endemic locations across Colombia and the American continent. Detailed knowledge of dengue transmission should be use to target efforts against Zika and other flaviviruses.

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (6) ◽  
pp. 967-976 ◽  
Author(s):  
William Darrow ◽  
Chintan Bhatt ◽  
Cassandra Rene ◽  
Lakisha Thomas

In January 2016, the first case of mosquito-borne Zika infection in the mainland United States was confirmed in Miami, Florida. The first locally acquired case was reported 6 months later. Local public health and school officials began warning students of the outbreak on their return to the classroom in August 2016. In November–December 2016, we conducted a survey of students attending a large public university in Miami to determine how well informed they were about Zika. A multistage sampling design was used to contact teaching assistants and ask them for help in recruiting their students. Eligible students had to be 18 years of age or older and enrolled in at least one three-credit course during fall semester. A 25-item questionnaire based on the World Health Organization Zika Knowledge, Attitudes, and Practice Resource Pack was developed, pretested, and approved by the university’s institutional review board before it was made available to eligible students through Blackboard Learn or a survey link. About half (50.4%) of the 139 respondents had heard about Zika prior to 2016. Only one student was unaware of Zika before our survey. Most (47.1%) first learned about Zika through television, 18.8% from family or friends, and 15.2% from the Internet, social media, or university e-mail. Two thirds (66.2%) believed Zika could be prevented, 15.1% thought it might be prevented, and 85.7% had taken some precautions. A high level of awareness of the risk of Zika infection was apparent. Most students reported taking steps to avoid exposure to the Zika virus.


2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos A. Herrada ◽  
Md. Alamgir Kabir ◽  
Rommel Altamirano ◽  
Waseem Asghar

The Zika virus (ZIKV) is one of the most infamous mosquito-borne flavivirus on recent memory due to its potential association with high mortality rates in fetuses, microcephaly and neurological impairments in neonates, and autoimmune disorders. The severity of the disease, as well as its fast spread over several continents, has urged the World Health Organization (WHO) to declare ZIKV a global health concern. In consequence, over the past couple of years, there has been a significant effort for the development of ZIKV diagnostic methods, vaccine development, and prevention strategies. This review focuses on the most recent aspects of ZIKV research which includes the outbreaks, genome structure, multiplication and propagation of the virus, and more importantly, the development of serological and molecular detection tools such as Zika IgM antibody capture enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (Zika MAC-ELISA), plaque reduction neutralization test (PRNT), reverse transcription quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR), reverse transcription-loop mediated isothermal amplification (RT-LAMP), localized surface plasmon resonance (LSPR) biosensors, nucleic acid sequence-based amplification (NASBA), and recombinase polymerase amplification (RPA). Additionally, we discuss the limitations of currently available diagnostic methods, the potential of newly developed sensing technologies, and also provide insight into future areas of research.


2016 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 704-706 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kristi L. Koenig

AbstractIn January 2016, the World Health Organization warned that Zika virus is “spreading explosively” in the Americas and that up to 4 million infections could be present worldwide within a year. Soon thereafter, some politicians and authors publicly advocated for quarantine of travelers returning from regions where mosquitoes carrying Zika virus are prevalent. The public health tool of quarantine can be used to prevent the spread of infection by restricting the movement of persons who have been exposed to a deadly disease that can be transmitted from person to person before symptom onset. With 80% of Zika virus infections being asymptomatic, no rapid test being available to detect the virus, and primary transmission being via the bites of certain mosquitoes, application of quarantine in this setting is not scientifically sound or practically feasible. Rather, public health interventions should focus on preventing bites from infected mosquitoes, counseling pregnant women on the risks of fetal microcephaly and other birth defects, and identifying patients with signs and symptoms of Guillain-Barré syndrome. As was seen in the Ebola virus disease outbreak of 2014, non-evidence-based factors can influence policy decisions. Public health experts must ensure that policy makers are informed that quarantine is not a scientifically sound approach for the control of Zika virus. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2016;0:1–3)


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
NARENDRAN PRADEEP KUMAR ◽  
P Jambulingam ◽  
D. Panneer ◽  
S Muthukumaravel ◽  
S. Abidha ◽  
...  

Abstract Background In wake of the global health emergency declared by the World Health Organization (WHO) during 2016, on the outbreak of ZIKA pandemic, Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) carried out countrywide vector surveillance for ZIKA and DENGUE viruses (ZIKV & DENV) in India, as a preparedness measure. Methods The study incorporated high-risk zones distributed to 49 Districts in 14 states/ Union Territories (UT) of India during 2016-2019. Seven ICMR Institutions undertook the study, following a uniform Standard Operating Protocol. Aedes specimens sampled on weekly intervals were processed by multiplex Reverse transcriptase PCR for ZIKV/DENV and Real time RT-PCR of ZIKV, among few samples distributed to all the Districts. Results Altogether, 79492 specimens of Aedes mosquitoes in 6492 pools were processed for both ZIKV and DENV infections. Among these, three and 63 pools respectively were found positive for ZIKV and DENV. ZIKV infections were recorded from Aedes aegypti sampled during 2018 sporadic ZIKA outbreak in Jaipur, Rajasthan, which belonged to the Asian lineage, already circulating in the Country. Both Ae. aegypti and Aedes albopictus were found infected with DENV and were distributed to ten states/ UTs. Both male and female specimens of Ae. albopictus recorded DENV infections indicating trans-ovarial transmission of DENV in the species. Conclusion This national vector surveillance study evinced no active transmission of the “American lineage - pandemic ZIKA virus” in India during 2016-2019, although Asian lineage of the virus already circulating in the Country was detected from Ae. aegypti from Jaipur, Rajasthan.


2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Gabriela M. Gomes ◽  
Juliane F. Oliveira ◽  
Adelmo Bertolde ◽  
Tuan Anh Nguyen ◽  
Ethel L. Maciel ◽  
...  

Global stakeholders including the World Health Organization rely on predictive models for developing strategies and setting targets for tuberculosis care and control programs. Failure to account for variation in individual risk leads to substantial biases that impair data interpretation and policy decisions1,2. Anticipated impediments to estimating heterogeneity for each parameter are discouraging despite considerable technical progress in recent years. Here we identify acquisition of infection as the single process where heterogeneity most fundamentally impacts model outputs, due to cohort selection imposed by dynamic forces of infection. Individuals with higher risk of acquiring infection are predominantly affected by the pathogen, leaving the unaffected pool with those whose intrinsic risk is lower. This causes susceptibility pools to attain average risks which are lower under higher forces of infection. Interventions that modify the force of infection change the strength of selection, and therefore alter average risks in the pools which feed further incidence. Inability to account for these dynamics is what makes homogenous models unsuitable. We introduce concrete metrics to approximate risk inequality in tuberculosis, demonstrate their utility in mathematical models, and pack the information into a risk inequality coefficient which can be calculated and reported by national tuberculosis programs for use in policy development and modeling.


2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Micaela E Martinez-Bakker

It has come to light that Zika virus (ZIKV) infection during pregnancy can result in trans-placental transmission to the fetus along with fetal death, congenital microcephaly and/or Central Nervous System (CNS) malformations. There are projected to be > 9, 200, 000 births annually in countries with ongoing ZIKV transmission. In response to the ZIKV threat, the World Health Organization (WHO) is strategically targeting prevention of infection in pregnant women and funding contraception in epidemic regions. I propose that the damaging effects of ZIKV can be reduced by timing pregnancy seasonally to minimize maternal exposure. Like other acute viral infections—including the related flavivirus, dengue virus (DENV)—the transmission of ZIKV is anticipated to be seasonal. By seasonally planning pregnancy, this aspect of pathogen ecology can be leveraged to align sensitive periods of gestation with the low-transmission season.


Proceedings ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 50 (1) ◽  
pp. 100
Author(s):  
Serena Marchi ◽  
Simonetta Viviani ◽  
Emanuele Montomoli ◽  
Yuxiao Tang ◽  
Adele Boccuto ◽  
...  

Before its recent spread, serological investigations conducted between the 1960s and the 1990s showed the wide presence of Zika virus in Africa. According to the World Health Organization, the entire Africa continent is at risk of Zika outbreak due to the presence of the virus, competent vectors, and the low capacity for surveillance and containment of an epidemic. However, limited data are available on the recent prevalence in the African population. The aim of this study was to evaluate the immunity against Zika virus in samples of a selected cohort from West Africa, in order to investigate the circulation of the virus in the region during the first years of its emergence in the Pacific. Human serum samples were collected in 2007 and between 2011 and 2012 from a cohort of subjects from Mali, Senegal, and The Gambia. The samples were tested using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) detection kit and positives were further confirmed by microneutralization test. The results indicate that Zika virus is present and actively circulating in Senegal and The Gambia, with prevalence values of 13.7% and 6.9% in 2012, respectively. Although no significant differences in prevalence were found for the considered time period, seroconversion of some subjects showed the active circulation of Zika virus in the West African area. Analysis by age showed an increase in immunity in relation to increasing age, demonstrating that the population is consistently exposed to the virus throughout life and with a high possibility of being infected during reproductive age. In conclusion, the obtained results allow for better knowledge of the circulation of Zika virus within three different ecological and demographic contexts, and represent an update to the limited data currently available.


2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 97
Author(s):  
Kenneth H. Eckels ◽  
Rafael A. De La Barrera ◽  
Joseph Robert Putnak

In February of 2016, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared Zika virus (ZIKV) a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. This prompted a rapid response from both the private and public sector resulting in the generation of several promising vaccine candidates. In this review, we discuss published scientific efforts associated with these novel vaccines, emphasizing the immunological assays used to evaluate their immunogenicity and efficacy, and support future licensure.


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