scholarly journals High transmissibility of COVID-19 near symptom onset

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hao-Yuan Cheng ◽  
Shu-Wan Jian ◽  
Ding-Ping Liu ◽  
Ta-Chou Ng ◽  
Wan-Ting Huang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Symptom Onset ◽  
Attack Rate ◽  
Paired Data ◽  
Rapid Reduction ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Household Contacts ◽  
Exposure Windows ◽  
Index Cases ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Close Contacts

AbstractBackgroundThe dynamics of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) transmissibility after symptom onset remains unknown.MethodsWe conducted a prospective case-ascertained study on laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases and their contacts. Secondary clinical attack rate (considering symptomatic cases only) was analyzed for different exposure windows after symptom onset of index cases and for different exposure settings.ResultsThirty-two confirmed patients were enrolled and 12 paired data (index-secondary cases) were identified among the 1,043 contacts. The secondary clinical attack rate was 0.9% (95% CI 0.5–1.7%). The attack rate was higher among those whose exposure to index cases started within five days of symptom onset (2.4%, 95% CI 1.1–4.5%) than those who were exposed later (zero case from 605 close contacts, 95% CI 0–0.61%). The attack rate was also higher among household contacts (13.6%, 95% CI 4.7–29.5%) and non- household family contacts (8.5%, 95% CI 2.4–20.3%) than that in healthcare or other settings. The higher secondary clinical attack rate for contacts near symptom onset remained when the analysis was restricted to household and family contacts. There was a trend of increasing attack rate with the age of contacts (p for trend < 0.001).ConclusionsHigh transmissibility of COVID-19 near symptom onset suggests that finding and isolating symptomatic patients alone may not suffice to contain the epidemic, and more generalized social distancing measures are required. Rapid reduction of transmissibility over time implies that prolonged hospitalization of mild cases might not be necessary in large epidemics.

scholarly journals Vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 transmission and infections among household and other close contacts of confirmed cases, the Netherlands, February to May 2021

2021 ◽  
Vol 26 (31) ◽  
Author(s):  
Brechje de Gier ◽  
Stijn Andeweg ◽  
Rosa Joosten ◽  
Ronald ter Schegget ◽  
Naomi Smorenburg ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
The Netherlands ◽  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Attack Rate ◽  
Severe Disease ◽  
Vaccine Effectiveness ◽  
Monitoring Data ◽  
High Effectiveness ◽  
Household Contacts ◽  
Index Cases ◽  
Close Contacts

Several studies report high effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe disease, however an important knowledge gap is the vaccine effectiveness against transmission (VET). We present estimates of the VET to household and other close contacts in the Netherlands, from February to May 2021, using contact monitoring data. The secondary attack rate among household contacts was lower for fully vaccinated than unvaccinated index cases (11% vs 31%), with an adjusted VET of 71% (95% confidence interval: 63–77).

scholarly journals Comparative Household Secondary Attack Rates associated with B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1 SARS-CoV-2 Variants

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin A Brown ◽  
Semra Tibebu ◽  
Nick Daneman ◽  
Kevin L Schwartz ◽  
Michael Whelan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Symptom Onset ◽  
Attack Rate ◽  
Surveillance System ◽  
Disease Surveillance ◽  
Index Case ◽  
Wild Type ◽  
Vaccination Rates ◽  
Household Contacts ◽  
Disease Surveillance System ◽  
Index Cases

Background: The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants associated with increased transmissibility are driving a 3rd global surge in COVID-19 incidence. There are currently few reliable estimates for the P.1 and B.1.351 lineages. We sought to compare the secondary attack rates of SARS-COV-2 mutations and variants in Canada's largest province of Ontario, using a previously validated household-based approach. Methods: We identified individuals with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection in Ontario's provincial reportable disease surveillance system. Cases were grouped into households based on reported residential address. Index cases had the earliest of symptom onset in the household. Household secondary attack rate was defined as the percentage of household contacts identified as secondary cases within 1-14 days after the index case. Results: We identified 26,888 index household cases during the study period. Among these, 7,555 (28%) were wild-type, 17,058 (63%) were B.1.1.7, 1674 (6%) were B.1.351 or P.1, and 601 (2%) were non-VOC mutants (Table 1). The secondary attack rates, according to index case variant were as follows: 20.2% (wild-type), 25.1% (B.1.1.7), 27.2% (B.1.351 or P.1), and 23.3% (non-VOC mutants). In adjusted analyses, we found that B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1 index cases had the highest transmissibility (presumptive B.1.1.7 OR adjusted=1.49, 95%CI 1.36, 1.64; presumptive B.1.351 or P.1 OR adjusted=1.60, 95%CI 1.37, 1.87). Discussion: Substantially higher transmissibility associated with variants will make control of SARS-CoV-2 more difficult, reinforcing the urgent need to increase vaccination rates globally.

scholarly journals Household secondary attack rate of COVID-19 by household size and index case characteristics

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Semra Tibebu ◽  
Kevin A. Brown ◽  
Nick Daneman ◽  
Lauren A. Paul ◽  
Sarah A. Buchan
Keyword(s):  
Symptom Onset ◽  
Attack Rate ◽  
Index Case ◽  
Household Size ◽  
Residential Address ◽  
Household Contacts ◽  
Household Transmission ◽  
Case Characteristics ◽  
Index Cases

AbstractIn this population-wide study in Ontario, Canada, we investigated the household secondary attack rate (SAR) to understand its relationship to household size and index case characteristics. We identified all patients with confirmed COVID-19 between July 1 and November 30, 2020. Cases within households were matched based on reported residential address; households were grouped based on the number of household contacts. The majority of households (68.2%) had a SAR of 0%, while 3,442 (11.7%) households had a SAR ≥75%. Overall household SAR was 19.5% and was similar across household sizes, but varied across index case characteristics. Households where index cases had longer delays between symptom onset and test seeking, households with older index cases, households with symptomatic index cases, and larger households located in diverse neighborhoods, were associated with greater household SAR. Our findings present characteristics associated with greater household SARs and proposes immediate testing as a method to reduce household transmission and incidence of COVID-19.

scholarly journals Investigation of Four Clusters of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Rwanda, 2020

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (13) ◽  
pp. 7018
Author(s):  
Olivier Nsekuye ◽  
Edson Rwagasore ◽  
Marie Aime Muhimpundu ◽  
Ziad El-Khatib ◽  
Daniel Ntabanganyimana ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽  
Symptom Onset ◽  
Attack Rate ◽  
Positive Sample ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Face To Face ◽  
Laboratory Confirmation ◽  
Closed Environment ◽  
Index Cases

We reported the findings of the first Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) four clusters identified in Rwanda. Case-investigations included contact elicitation, testing, and isolation/quarantine of confirmed cases. Socio-demographic and clinical data on cases and contacts were collected. A confirmed case was a person with laboratory confirmation of SARS-CoV-2 infection (PCR) while a contact was any person who had contact with a SARS-CoV-2 confirmed case within 72 h prior, to 14 days after symptom onset; or 14 days before collection of the laboratory-positive sample for asymptomatic cases. High risk contacts were those who had come into unprotected face-to-face contact or had been in a closed environment with a SARS-CoV-2 case for >15 min. Forty cases were reported from four clusters by 22 April 2020, accounting for 61% of locally transmitted cases within six weeks. Clusters A, B, C and D were associated with two nightclubs, one house party, and different families or households living in the same compound (multi-family dwelling). Thirty-six of the 1035 contacts tested were positive (secondary attack rate: 3.5%). Positivity rates were highest among the high-risk contacts compared to low-risk contacts (10% vs. 2.2%). Index cases in three of the clusters were imported through international travelling. Fifteen of the 40 cases (38%) were asymptomatic while 13/25 (52%) and 8/25 (32%) of symptomatic cases had a cough and fever respectively. Gatherings in closed spaces were the main early drivers of transmission. Systematic case-investigations contact tracing and testing likely contributed to the early containment of SARS-CoV-2 in Rwanda.

scholarly journals Epidemiology and contact tracing assessment of COVID-19 and potential risk of transmission at different exposure settings: A prospective cohort study

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abu Shadat M Noman ◽  
Mohammed Rezaul Karim ◽  
ASM Zahed ◽  
ATM Rezaul Karim ◽  
Syed S Islam
Keyword(s):  
Risk Ratio ◽  
Attack Rate ◽  
Close Contact ◽  
Household Contact ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Secondary Contact ◽  
Epidemiological Characteristics ◽  
Index Cases ◽  
Close Contacts

Abstract Background: Transmission risk of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) to close contacts and at different exposure settings are yet to be fully understood for the evaluation of effective control measures. Methods: We traced 1171 close contact cases who were linked to 291 index cases between July 3, 2020 and September 3, 2020. Clinical and epidemiological characteristics of all index cases, close contacts, and secondary contact cases were collected and analyzed the secondary attack rate and risk of transmission at different exposure settings. Results: Median age of 291 index cases were 43.0 years (range 18.5-82.3) including 213 male and 78 females. Among all 1171 close contact cases, 39(3.3%) cases were identified as secondary infected cases. Among 39 secondary cases, 33(84.62%) cases were symptomatic and 3 (7.69%) cases were asymptomatic. Of the 33 symptomatic cases, 31(86.1%) male and 5(13.9%) female. Of these 36 symptomatic cases, 24(66.7%) cases between age 20-59 and remaining 12(33.3%) cases were age 60 and over. Of the 36 symptomatic cases, 11(30.6%) cases were identified as severe, 19(52.8%) as moderate and 6(16.7%) as mild. The overall secondary clinical attack rate was 3.07% (95% CI 2.49-3.64). The attack rate was higher among those aged between 50 to 69 years and shows higher risk of transmission than age below 50 years. The attack rate was higher among household contact (6.17%(95%CI 4.7-7.6; risk ratio 2.44[95%CI1.5-3.4]), and lower in hospital facility (2.29%,95%CI0.58-3.40; [risk ratio 0.91,95%CI 0.17-1.9]), funeral ceremony (2.53%,95%CI 0.32-4.73), work places (3.95%,95% CI2.5-5.42 [risk ratio 1.56,95%CI 0.63-2.5]), family contacts (3.87%,95%CI 2.4-5.3; risk ratio 1.53,95%CI 0.61-2.45]). Conclusions: Among all exposure settings analyzed, household contact exposure setting remained the highest transmission probability and risk of transmission of COVID-19 with the increase of age and disease severity.

scholarly journals Contact Tracing of COVID-19 in Karnataka, India: Superspreading and Determinants of Infectiousness and Symptomaticity

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohak Gupta ◽  
Giridara G Parameswaran ◽  
Manraj S Sra ◽  
Rishika Mohanta ◽  
Devarsh Patel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Symptom Onset ◽  
Attack Rate ◽  
Clinical Severity ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Significant Heterogeneity ◽  
Symptomatic Infection ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Serial Interval ◽  
Index Cases ◽  
Degree Of Heterogeneity

Brief AbstractWe analysed SARS-CoV-2 surveillance and contact tracing data from Karnataka, India up to 21 July 2020. We estimated metrics of infectiousness and the tendency for superspreading (overdispersion), and evaluated potential determinants of infectiousness and symptomaticity in COVID-19 cases. Among 956 cases confirmed to be forward-traced, 8.7% of index cases had 14.4% of contacts but caused 80% of all secondary cases, suggesting significant heterogeneity in individual-level transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 which could not be explained by the degree of heterogeneity in underlying number of contacts. Secondary attack rate was 3.6% among 16715 close contacts. Transmission was higher when index case was aged >18 years, or was symptomatic (adjusted risk ratio, aRR 3.63), or was lab-confirmed ≥4 days after symptom onset (aRR 3.01). Probability of symptomatic infection increased with age, and symptomatic infectors were 8.16 times more likely to generate symptomatic secondaries. This could potentially cause a snowballing effect on infectiousness and clinical severity across transmission generations; further studies are suggested to confirm this. Mean serial interval was 5.4 days. Adding backward contact tracing and targeting control measures to curb super-spreading may be prudent. Due to low symptomaticity and infectivity, interventions aimed at children might have a relatively small impact on reducing transmission.Structured AbstractBackgroundIndia has experienced the second largest outbreak of COVID-19 globally, yet there is a paucity of studies analysing contact tracing data in the region. Such studies can elucidate essential transmission metrics which can help optimize disease control policies.MethodsWe analysed contact tracing data collected under the Integrated Disease Surveillance Programme from Karnataka, India between 9 March and 21 July 2020. We estimated metrics of disease transmission including the reproduction number (R), overdispersion (k), secondary attack rate (SAR), and serial interval. R and k were jointly estimated using a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach. We evaluated the effect of age and other factors on the risk of transmitting the infection, probability of asymptomatic infection, and mortality due to COVID-19.FindingsUp to 21 July, we found 111 index cases that crossed the super-spreading threshold of ≥8 secondary cases. R and k were most reliably estimated at R 0.75 (95% CI, 0.62-0.91) and k 0.12 (0.11-0.15) for confirmed traced cases (n=956); and R 0.91 (0.72-1.15) and k 0.22 (0.17-0.27) from the three largest clusters (n=394). Among 956 confirmed traced cases, 8.7% of index cases had 14.4% of contacts but caused 80% of all secondary cases. Among 16715 contacts, overall SAR was 3.6% (3.4-3.9) and symptomatic cases were more infectious than asymptomatic cases (SAR 7.7% vs 2.0%; aRR 3.63 [3.04-4.34]). As compared to infectors aged 19-44 years, children were less infectious (aRR 0.21 [0.07-0.66] for 0-5 years and 0.47 [0.32-0.68] for 6-18 years). Infectors who were confirmed ≥4 days after symptom onset were associated with higher infectiousness (aRR 3.01 [2.11-4.31]). Probability of symptomatic infection increased with age, and symptomatic infectors were 8.16 (3.29-20.24) times more likely to generate symptomatic secondaries. Serial interval had a mean of 5.4 (4.4-6.4) days with a Weibull distribution. Overall case fatality rate was 2.5% (2.4-2.7) which increased with age.ConclusionWe found significant heterogeneity in the individual-level transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 which could not be explained by the degree of heterogeneity in the underlying number of contacts. To strengthen contact tracing in over-dispersed outbreaks, testing and tracing delays should be minimised, retrospective contact tracing should be considered, and contact tracing performance metrics should be utilised. Targeted measures to reduce potential superspreading events should be implemented. Interventions aimed at children might have a relatively small impact on reducing SARS-CoV-2 transmission owing to their low symptomaticity and infectivity. There is some evidence that symptomatic cases produce secondary cases that are more likely to be symptomatic themselves which may potentially cause a snowballing effect on infectiousness and clinical severity across transmission generations; further studies are needed to confirm this finding.FundingGiridhara R Babu is funded by an Intermediate Fellowship by the Wellcome Trust DBT India Alliance (Clinical and Public Health Research Fellowship); grant number: IA/CPHI/14/1/501499.

scholarly journals Epidemiological characteristics of the first 53 laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 epidemic in Hong Kong, 13 February 2020

2020 ◽  
Vol 25 (16) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kin On Kwok ◽  
Valerie Wing Yu Wong ◽  
Wan In Wei ◽  
Samuel Yeung Shan Wong ◽  
Julian Wei-Tze Tang
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Attack Rate ◽  
Local Source ◽  
Paired Data ◽  
Serial Interval ◽  
Right Truncation ◽  
Epidemiological Characteristics ◽  
Censored Likelihood ◽  
Best Fit ◽  
Close Contacts

Background COVID-19, caused by SARS-CoV-2, first appeared in China and subsequently developed into an ongoing epidemic. Understanding epidemiological factors characterising the transmission dynamics of this disease is of fundamental importance. Aims This study aimed to describe key epidemiological parameters of COVID-19 in Hong Kong. Methods We extracted data of confirmed COVID-19 cases and their close contacts from the publicly available information released by the Hong Kong Centre for Health Protection. We used doubly interval censored likelihood to estimate containment delay and serial interval, by fitting gamma, lognormal and Weibull distributions to respective empirical values using Bayesian framework with right truncation. A generalised linear regression model was employed to identify factors associated with containment delay. Secondary attack rate was also estimated. Results The empirical containment delay was 6.39 days; whereas after adjusting for right truncation with the best-fit Weibull distribution, it was 10.4 days (95% CrI: 7.15 to 19.81). Containment delay increased significantly over time. Local source of infection and number of doctor consultations before isolation were associated with longer containment delay. The empirical serial interval was 4.58–6.06 days; whereas the best-fit lognormal distribution to 26 certain-and-probable infector–infectee paired data gave an estimate of 4.77 days (95% CrI: 3.47 to 6.90) with right-truncation. The secondary attack rate among close contacts was 11.7%. Conclusion With a considerable containment delay and short serial interval, contact-tracing effectiveness may not be optimised to halt the transmission with rapid generations replacement. Our study highlights the transmission risk of social interaction and pivotal role of physical distancing in suppressing the epidemic.

scholarly journals A comparison of COVID-19 secondary attack rate in household and close contacts compared to current risk stratification guidelines of the Kerala government

2021 ◽  
pp. 004947552110020
Author(s):  
Balram Rathish ◽  
Arun Wilson ◽  
Sonya Joy
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Stratification ◽  
Attack Rate ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Index Cases ◽  
Current Risk ◽  
Close Contacts

COVID-19 has been found to be highly infectious with a high secondary attack rate with a R0 of 3.3. However, the secondary attack rate based on risk stratification is sparsely reported, if ever. We studied the contact tracing data for two index cases of COVID-19 with some overlap of contacts. We found that 60% of high-risk contacts and 0% of low-risk contacts of symptomatic COVID-19 patients contracted the infection, in keeping with the Kerala government contact risk stratification guidelines.

scholarly journals High Rate of SARS-CoV-2 Transmission due to Choir Practice in France at the Beginning of the COVID-19 Pandemic

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nathalie CHARLOTTE
Keyword(s):  
Attack Rate ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
High Rate ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
High Transmission ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Practice Methods ◽  
Index Cases ◽  
Close Contacts

Background: There has been little focus on the individual risk of acquiring COVID-19 related to choir practice. Methods: We report the case of a high transmission rate of SARS-CoV-2 linked to an indoor choir rehearsal in France in March 2020 at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. Results: A total of 27 participants, including 25 male singers, a conductor and an accompanist attended a choir practice on March 12, 2020. The practice was indoor and took place in a non-ventilated space of 45 m2. No choir member reported having been symptomatic for COVID-19 between March 2 and March 12.The mean age of the participants was 66.9 (range 35-86) years. 70% of the participants (19 of 27) were diagnosed with COVID-19 from 1 to 12 days after the rehearsal with a median of 5.1 days. 36% of the cases needed a hospitalization (7/19), and 21% (4/19) were admitted to an ICU. The index cases were possibly multiple. Discussion: The choir practice was planned in March 2020 at a period when the number of new cases of COVID-19 began to grow exponentially in France because SARS-CoV-2 was actively circulating. The secondary attack rate (70%) was much higher than it is described within households (10-20%) and among close contacts made outside households (0-5%). Singing might have contributed to enhance SARS-CoV-2 person-to-person transmission through emission of droplets and aerosolization in a closed non ventilated space with a relative high number of people including multiple pre-symptomatic suspected index cases. Conclusion: Indoor choir practice should be suspended during SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks. Further studies are necessary to test the spread of the virus by the act of singing. As the benefits of the barrier measures and social distancing are known to be effective in terms of a reduction in the incidence of the COVID-19, experts recommendations concerning the resuming of choir practice are necessary.

scholarly journals Transmission and serotype features of hand foot mouth disease in household contacts in Dong Thap, Vietnam

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Cuong Quoc Hoang ◽  
Thao Thanh Thi Nguyen ◽  
Nguyen Xuan Ho ◽  
Hai Duc Nguyen ◽  
An Binh Nguyen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Attack Rate ◽  
Neutralizing Antibodies ◽  
Index Case ◽  
Fold Increase ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
Rt Pcr ◽  
Household Contacts ◽  
Two Samples ◽  
Household Members ◽  
Index Cases

Abstract Background Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) has emerged as a major public health issue in Vietnam since 2003. We aimed to investigate the household transmission of HFMD and its causative viruses from 150 households in a high incidence province in Vietnam. Methods A longitudinal study was conducted in patients presenting to the provincial hospital with a HFMD-like syndrome, along with their household members between April and August 2014 in Dong Thap Province. Each participant was followed up for 2 weeks. We enrolled 150 patients aged under 15 who were clinically diagnosed with HFMD in Dong Thap Hospital, 600 household members, and 581/600 household members completed the study. All participants were interviewed using a standard questionnaire. Throat swabs and blood samples were taken for molecular detection of viruses and assessment of neutralizing antibodies, respectively. Index cases were defined using a clinical case definition, household contact cases were defined using a similar definition applied to the 2 weeks before admission and 2 weeks after discharge of the index case. Characteristics of index cases, household contacts, the attack rate, serotype features and related factors of HFMD were reported. Result Among 150 index cases, 113 were laboratory confirmed: 90/150 were RT-PCR-positive, 101/142 had a ≥ 4-fold increase of neutralizing antibody against Enterovirus A71 (EV-A71), Coxsackievirus (CV) A6 or CV-A16 across the two samples collected. 80/150 (53%) were males, and 45/150 (30%) were under the age of 1. The predominant serotype was CV-A6, identified in 57/87 (65.5%) of the specimens. No deaths were reported. Among 581 household contacts, 148 were laboratory confirmed: 12/581 were RT-PCR-positive, 142/545 had a ≥ 4-fold increase of neutralizing antibodies against EV-A71, CV-A6 or CV-A16; 4 cases experienced HFMD in the past 4 weeks. Attack rate among household contacts was 148/581 (25.5%). In 7/12 (58%) instances, the index and secondary cases were infected with the same serotype. Having a relationship to index case was significantly associated with EV infection. Conclusion The attack rate among household contacts was relatively high (25.5%) in this study and it seems justified to also consider the household setting as an additional target for intervention programs.

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