scholarly journals Survival-Convolution Models for Predicting COVID-19 Cases and Assessing Effects of Mitigation Strategies

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qinxia Wang ◽  
Shanghong Xie ◽  
Yuanjia Wang ◽  
Donglin Zeng
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Infection Rate ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Intervention Effect ◽  
Convolution Model ◽  
The Us ◽  
Response Measures

SummaryBackgroundCountries around the globe have implemented unprecedented mitigation measures to mitigate the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. We aim to predict COVID-19 cases and compare effectiveness of mitigation measures across countries to inform policy decision making.MethodsWe propose a survival-convolution model for predicting key statistics of COVID-19 epidemics (daily new cases). We account for transmission during a presymptomatic incubation period and use a time-varying reproduction number (Rt) to reflect the temporal trend of transmission and change in response to an intervention. We estimate the intervention effect on reducing the infection rate and quantify uncertainty by permutation.FindingsOur model adequately estimated observed daily new cases and could predict the entire disease epidemic using data from the early phase. A fast rate of decline in Rt was observed in China and South Korea. In Italy, Rt decreased at a slower rate and did not change significantly before the nation-wide lockdown and two-weeks after. In the United States (US), there was a significant change in Rt before and after the declaration of national emergency.InterpretationAdopting mitigation strategies early in the epidemic is effective in reducing the infection rate. The lockdown in Italy did not further accelerate the speed at which the infection rate decreases and the epidemic is not yet under control. If the current trend continues in the US, COVID-19 may be controlled by May 24 (CI: May 15 to Jun 9). However, relaxing mitigation measures could delay the end date of the epidemic as long as 42 days.FundingUS National Institutes of Health.Research in contextEvidence before this studyThe COVID-19 has created major health crisis around the world. As countries respond to the pandemic, it is urgent to predict disease epidemic and compare containment and mitigation efforts between countries to investigate their impacts on infection rates. We searched PubMed for studies published in English up to April 2020, with the terms “COVID-19”, “coronavirus”, “SARS-CoV-2”,”2019-nCoV” AND “transmission”, “dynamics”, “model”, “estimate”, “forecast”, “intervention”, “control measures”. We found several infectious disease models for epidemic in China, other Asian countries, and Europe, and predictions of mortality rate and hospital demands in United Kingdom and United States. A few studies have investigated the impact of control measures based on simulations. However, existing models for COVID-19 are based on susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) models for prior influenza and SARS epidemics, which involve a large number of parameters and may susceptible to perturbation in parameters. No published work has used a parsimonious survival model to directly predict daily new case or use natural experiment design to estimate intervention effect.Added value of this studyWe present a parsimonious and robust survival convolution model to predict daily new cases and daily hidden latent cases with a few model parameters and assumptions, and estimate intervention effects across countries under longitudinal pre-post quasi-experimental. Our model may provide narrower confidence intervals and more accurate prediction than existing methods based on SEIR models. In China and South Korea, we predict the entire disease epidemic using only data two to three weeks after the outbreak. In Italy, there was no significant effect of national-wide lockdown measured by the difference in the trend of Rt. In the US, series of response measures implemented across states before March 13 has made a significant impact on changing Rt. Early response measures implemented in China and South Korea have reduced the infection rate faster than Italy and the US. Italy’s Rt has remained around 1·0 for more than two weeks since March 26, while in the US Rt continues to decrease.Implications of all the available evidenceImplementing response measures earlier in the disease epidemic reduces the disease transmission measured by Rt at a faster speed. Thus, for regions at early stage of disease epidemic (e.g., South America), mitigation measures should be introduced early. Nation-wide lockdown may not further reduce the speed of Rt reduction compared to regional quarantine measures. In countries where disease transmission has slowed down, lifting of quarantine measures may lead to a persistent infection rate delaying full control of epidemic and thus should be implemented with caution.

scholarly journals Impact of Social Distancing on COVID-19 and Other Related Infectious Disease Transmission: A Systematic Review

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (F) ◽  
pp. 601-607
Author(s):  
Nor Rumaizah Mohd Nordin ◽  
Fadly Syah Arsad ◽  
Puteri Sofia Nadira Megat Kamaruddin ◽  
Muhammad Hilmi ◽  
Mohd Faizal Madrim ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Research Question ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Physical Contact ◽  
Infectious Disease Transmission ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Impact

Background   Similar to other coronaviruses, COVID-19 is transmitted mainly by droplets and is highly transmissible through close proximity or physical contact with an infected person. Countries across the globe have implemented public health control measures to prevent onwards transmission and reduce burden on health care settings. Social or physical distancing was found to be one of appropriate measure based on previous experience with epidemic and pandemic contagious diseases. This study aims to review the latest evidence of the impact of social or physical distancing implemented during COVID-19 pandemic towards COVID-19 and other related infectious disease transmission.   Methodology   The study uses PRISMA review protocol and formulation of research question was based on PICO. The selected databases include Ovid MEDLINE and Scopus. Thorough identification, screening and eligibility process were done, revealed selected 8 articles. The articles then ranked in quality through MMAT.   Results   A total of eight papers included in this analysis. Five studies (USA, Canada, South Korea and the United Kingdom) showed physical distancing had resulted in a reduction in Covid-19 transmission. In comparison, three other studies (Australia, South Korea and Finland) showed a similar decline on other infectious diseases (Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV), other sexually transmitted infections (STI), Influenza, Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) and Vaccine-Preventive Disease (VPD). The degree of the distancing policy implemented differ between strict and lenient, with both result in effectiveness in reducing transmission of infectious disease.   Conclusion   Physical or social distancing may come in the form of extreme or lenient measure in effectively containing contagious disease like COVID-19, however the stricter the measure will give more proportionate impact towards the economy, education, mental health issues, morbidity and mortality of non-COVID-19 diseases. Since we need this measure to ensure the reduction of infectious diseases transmission in order to help flattening the curve which allow much needed time for healthcare system to prepare adequately to response, ‘Precision physical distancing” can be implemented which will have more benefit towards the survival of the community as a whole.

scholarly journals Analysis of alternative Covid-19 mitigation measures in school classrooms: an agent-based model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. J. Woodhouse ◽  
W. P. Aspinall ◽  
R. S. J. Sparks ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
New Wave ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
School Settings ◽  
Infection Control Measures ◽  
Large Numbers ◽  
Beneficial Impact ◽  
The Uk

1.AbstractThe SARS-CoV-2 epidemic has had major impacts on children’s education, with schools required to implement infection control measures that have led to long periods of absence and classroom closures. We develop an agent-based epidemiological model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission that is applied to model infection within school classrooms, with a contact model constructed using random networks informed by structured expert judgement. Mitigation strategies to control infection are modelled to allow analysis of their effectiveness in supressing infection outbreaks and in limiting pupil absence. The model is applied to re-examine Covid-19 in schools in the UK in autumn 2020, and to forecast infection levels in autumn 2021 when the more infectious Delta-variant is dominant and school transmission is likely to play a major role in a new wave of the epidemic. Our results indicate that testing-based surveillance of infections in the classroom population with isolation of positive cases is a more effective mitigation measure than bubble quarantine both for reducing transmission in schools and for avoiding pupil absence, even accounting for insensitivity of self-administered tests. Bubble quarantine results in large numbers of pupils absent from school, with only modest impact of classroom infection. However, maintaining a reduced contact rate within the classroom has a major beneficial impact for managing Covid-19 in school settings.

scholarly journals An Examination of People’s Privacy Concerns, Perceptions of Social Benefits, and Acceptance of COVID-19 Mitigation Measures That Harness Location Information: A Comparative Study of the U.S. and South Korea

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 25
Author(s):  
Junghwan Kim ◽  
Mei-Po Kwan
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Private Information ◽  
Online Survey ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Social Benefits ◽  
Location Information ◽  
Privacy Concerns ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The U.S

This paper examines people’s privacy concerns, perceptions of social benefits, and acceptance of various COVID-19 control measures that harness location information using data collected through an online survey in the U.S. and South Korea. The results indicate that people have higher privacy concerns for methods that use more sensitive and private information. The results also reveal that people’s perceptions of social benefits are low when their privacy concerns are high, indicating a trade-off relationship between privacy concerns and perceived social benefits. Moreover, the acceptance by South Koreans for most mitigation methods is significantly higher than that by people in the U.S. Lastly, the regression results indicate that South Koreans (compared to people in the U.S.) and people with a stronger collectivist orientation tend to have higher acceptance for the control measures because they have lower privacy concerns and perceive greater social benefits for the measures. These findings advance our understanding of the important role of geographic context and culture as well as people’s experiences of the mitigation measures applied to control a previous pandemic.

scholarly journals Several countries in one: a mathematical modeling analysis for COVID-19 in inner Brazil

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
G.B. de Almeida ◽  
T.N. Vilches ◽  
C.P. Ferreira ◽  
C.M.C.B. Fortaleza
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Severe Pneumonia ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Control Effort ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Modeling Analysis ◽  
The Social ◽  
Control Disease ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

ABSTRACTEarly 2020 and the world experiences its very first pandemic of globalized era. A novel coronavirus, SARS-Cov-2, is the causative agent of severe pneumonia and rapidly spread through many nations, crashing health systems. In Brazil, the emergence of local epidemics in major metropolitan areas is a concern. In a huge and heterogeneous country, with regional disparities and climate diversity, several factors can modulate the dynamics of COVID-19. What should be the scenario for an inner Brazil and what can we do to control infection transmission in each one of these locations? In this paper, a mathematical model was developed to simulate disease transmission among individuals in several scenarios, differing by the intensity and type of control measures. Mitigation strategies rely on social distancing of all individuals, and detection and isolation of infected ones. The model shows that control effort varies among cities. The social distancing is the most efficient method to control disease transmission but improving detection and isolation of infected individuals can help loosening this mitigation strategy.

scholarly journals Faktor Kerentanan Food Fraud dan Mitigasinya : Studi Kasus Pada Produsen Susu Bubuk di Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 55-63
Author(s):  
A. Fitrawanti ◽  
R. Dewanti-Hariyadi ◽  
N. Wulandari
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Milk Powder ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Surveillance Systems ◽  
National Agency ◽  
Food Fraud ◽  
Powdered Milk ◽  
Integrity Tests

Food fraud is one of the risks in the supply chain globalization. A complex and long supply chain withdifferent locations, cultures, business ethics, policies and surveillance systems are the contributing factorsto food fraud. This study aims to identify food fraud vulnerability factors in milk powder producers. Itwas conducted in two companies which uses powder and liquid milk as the raw materials which istypical in Indonesian powdered milk industry. The study steps consist of respondents determination,data collection and analysis, formulating mitigation strategies. The respondents were company’s headof departments and a government officer of the National Agency for Drug and Food. Data collectionand analysis were carried out with the Safe Supply Affordable Food Everywhere (SSAFE) tool, whilemitigation strategies was formulated through Focus Group Discussion. The results show that vulnerabilityto food fraud rooted from the opportunity factor, namely the easiness and availability of technologyto commit fraud, motivational factor namely the level of corruption and regulatory differences thataffect prices, control measures factors due to lack of supervision, employee integrity tests and preventionguidelines. Internally improving control measures within the company and guideline prevention fromthe government were mitigation measures to be done.

scholarly journals COVID-19 Pandemic: Public Health Risk Assessment and Risk Mitigation Strategies

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 1243
Author(s):  
Dae-Young Kim ◽  
Surendra Krushna Shinde ◽  
Saifullah Lone ◽  
Ramasubba Reddy Palem ◽  
Gajanan Sampatrao Ghodake
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Average Case ◽  
Diverse Range ◽  
Health Crisis

A newly emerged respiratory viral disease called severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) is also known as pandemic coronavirus disease (COVID-19). This pandemic has resulted an unprecedented global health crisis and devastating impact on several sectors of human lives and economies. Fortunately, the average case fatality ratio for SARS-CoV-2 is below 2%, much lower than that estimated for MERS (34%) and SARS (11%). However, COVID-19 has a much higher transmissibility rate, as evident from the constant increase in the count of infections worldwide. This article explores the reasons behind how COVID-19 was able to cause a global pandemic crisis. The current outbreak scenario and causes of rapid global spread are examined using recent developments in the literature, epidemiological features relevant to public health awareness, and critical perspective of risk assessment and mitigation strategies. Effective pandemic risk mitigation measures have been established and amended against COVID-19 diseases, but there is still much scope for upgrading execution and coordination among authorities in terms of organizational leadership’s commitment and diverse range of safety measures, including administrative control measures, engineering control measures, and personal protective equipment (PPE). The significance of containment interventions against the COVID-19 pandemic is now well established; however, there is a need for its effective execution across the globe, and for the improvement of the performance of risk mitigation practices and suppression of future pandemic crises.

Characterizing the effectiveness of COVID-19 mitigation measures: A data-centric approach (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lukman Olagoke ◽  
Ahmet E. Topcu
Keyword(s):  
Control Measure ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
World Health ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
The World ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
The Impact

BACKGROUND COVID-19 represents a serious threat to both national health and economic systems. To curb this pandemic, the World Health Organization (WHO) issued a series of COVID-19 public safety guidelines. Different countries around the world initiated different measures in line with the WHO guidelines to mitigate and investigate the spread of COVID-19 in their territories. OBJECTIVE The aim of this paper is to quantitatively evaluate the effectiveness of these control measures using a data-centric approach. METHODS We begin with a simple text analysis of coronavirus-related articles and show that reports on similar outbreaks in the past strongly proposed similar control measures. This reaffirms the fact that these control measures are in order. Subsequently, we propose a simple performance statistic that quantifies general performance and performance under the different measures that were initiated. A density based clustering of based on performance statistic was carried out to group countries based on performance. RESULTS The performance statistic helps evaluate quantitatively the impact of COVID-19 control measures. Countries tend show variability in performance under different control measures. The performance statistic has negative correlation with cases of death which is a useful characteristics for COVID-19 control measure performance analysis. A web-based time-line visualization that enables comparison of performances and cases across continents and subregions is presented. CONCLUSIONS The performance metric is relevant for the analysis of the impact of COVID-19 control measures. This can help caregivers and policymakers identify effective control measures and reduce cases of death due to COVID-19. The interactive web visualizer provides easily digested and quick feedback to augment decision-making processes in the COVID-19 response measures evaluation. CLINICALTRIAL Not Applicable

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