scholarly journals Several countries in one: a mathematical modeling analysis for COVID-19 in inner Brazil

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
G.B. de Almeida ◽  
T.N. Vilches ◽  
C.P. Ferreira ◽  
C.M.C.B. Fortaleza
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Severe Pneumonia ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Control Effort ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Modeling Analysis ◽  
The Social ◽  
Control Disease ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

ABSTRACTEarly 2020 and the world experiences its very first pandemic of globalized era. A novel coronavirus, SARS-Cov-2, is the causative agent of severe pneumonia and rapidly spread through many nations, crashing health systems. In Brazil, the emergence of local epidemics in major metropolitan areas is a concern. In a huge and heterogeneous country, with regional disparities and climate diversity, several factors can modulate the dynamics of COVID-19. What should be the scenario for an inner Brazil and what can we do to control infection transmission in each one of these locations? In this paper, a mathematical model was developed to simulate disease transmission among individuals in several scenarios, differing by the intensity and type of control measures. Mitigation strategies rely on social distancing of all individuals, and detection and isolation of infected ones. The model shows that control effort varies among cities. The social distancing is the most efficient method to control disease transmission but improving detection and isolation of infected individuals can help loosening this mitigation strategy.

scholarly journals Addressing the COVID-19 transmission in inner Brazil by a mathematical model

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
G. B. Almeida ◽  
T. N. Vilches ◽  
C. P. Ferreira ◽  
C. M. C. B. Fortaleza
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Abiotic Factors ◽  
Severe Pneumonia ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Control Disease ◽  
Set Up ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Public Health Strategies

AbstractIn 2020, the world experienced its very first pandemic of the globalized era. A novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, is the causative agent of severe pneumonia and has rapidly spread through many nations, crashing health systems and leading a large number of people to death. In Brazil, the emergence of local epidemics in major metropolitan areas has always been a concern. In a vast and heterogeneous country, with regional disparities and climate diversity, several factors can modulate the dynamics of COVID-19. What should be the scenario for inner Brazil, and what can we do to control infection transmission in each of these locations? Here, a mathematical model is proposed to simulate disease transmission among individuals in several scenarios, differing by abiotic factors, social-economic factors, and effectiveness of mitigation strategies. The disease control relies on keeping all individuals’ social distancing and detecting, followed by isolating, infected ones. The model reinforces social distancing as the most efficient method to control disease transmission. Moreover, it also shows that improving the detection and isolation of infected individuals can loosen this mitigation strategy. Finally, the effectiveness of control may be different across the country, and understanding it can help set up public health strategies.

Coronavirus: Towards controlling of the pandemic - Indian scenario

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (SPL1) ◽  
pp. 462-468
Author(s):  
Latika kothari ◽  
Sanskruti Wadatkar ◽  
Roshni Taori ◽  
Pavan Bajaj ◽  
Diksha Agrawal
Keyword(s):  
Control Measures ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Medical Treatments ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
The Public ◽  
Infection Control Measures ◽  
The Social ◽  
Asking Questions ◽  
The Government ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a communicable infection caused by the novel coronavirus resulting in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV). It was recognized to be a health crisis for the general population of international concern on 30th January 2020 and conceded as a pandemic on 11th March 2020. India is taking various measures to fight this invisible enemy by adopting different strategies and policies. To stop the COVID-19 from spreading, the Home Affairs Ministry and the health ministry, of India, has issued the nCoV 19 guidelines on travel. Screening for COVID-19 by asking questions about any symptoms, recent travel history, and exposure. India has been trying to get testing kits available. The government of India has enforced various laws like the social distancing, Janata curfew, strict lockdowns, screening door to door to control the spread of novel coronavirus. In this pandemic, innovative medical treatments are being explored, and a proper vaccine is being hunted to deal with the situation. Infection control measures are necessary to prevent the virus from further spreading and to help control the current situation. Thus, this review illustrates and explains the criteria provided by the government of India to the awareness of the public to prevent the spread of COVID-19.

Disparity and Dynamics of Social Distancing Behaviors in Japan: An Investigation of mobile phone mobility data (Preprint)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zeyu Lyu ◽  
Hiroki Takikawa
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Demographic Groups ◽  
Fine Grained ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Government ◽  
Over Time

BACKGROUND The availability of large-scale and fine-grained aggregated mobility data has allowed researchers to observe the dynamic of social distancing behaviors at high spatial and temporal resolutions. Despite the increasing attentions paid to this research agenda, limited studies have focused on the demographic factors related to mobility and the dynamics of social distancing behaviors has not been fully investigated. OBJECTIVE This study aims to assist in the design and implementation of public health policies by exploring the social distancing behaviors among various demographic groups over time. METHODS We combined several data sources, including mobile tracking data and geographical statistics, to estimate visiting population of entertainment venues across demographic groups, which can be considered as the proxy of social distancing behaviors. Then, we employed time series analyze methods to investigate how voluntary and policy-induced social distancing behaviors shift over time across demographic groups. RESULTS Our findings demonstrate distinct patterns of social distancing behaviors and their dynamics across age groups. The population in the entertainment venues comprised mainly of individuals aged 20–40 years, while according to the dynamics of the mobility index and the policy-induced behavior, among the age groups, the extent of reduction of the frequency of visiting entertainment venues during the pandemic was generally the highest among younger individuals. Also, our results indicate the importance of implementing the social distancing policy promptly to limit the spread of the COVID-19 infection. However, it should be noticed that although the policy intervention during the second wave in Japan appeared to increase the awareness of the severity of the pandemic and concerns regarding COVID-19, its direct impact has been largely decreased could only last for a short time. CONCLUSIONS At the time we wrote this paper, in Japan, the number of daily confirmed cases was continuously increasing. Thus, this study provides a timely reference for decision makers about the current situation of policy-induced compliance behaviors. On the one hand, age-dependent disparity requires target mitigation strategies to increase the intention of elderly individuals to adopt mobility restriction behaviors. On the other hand, considering the decreasing impact of self-restriction recommendations, the government should employ policy interventions that limit the resurgence of cases, especially by imposing stronger, stricter social distancing interventions, as they are necessary to promote social distancing behaviors and mitigate the transmission of COVID-19. CLINICALTRIAL None

scholarly journals Prevalence and correlates of forgone care among adult Israeli Jews: A survey conducted during the COVID-19 outbreak

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (11) ◽  
pp. e0260399
Author(s):  
Perla Werner ◽  
Aviad Tur-Sinai
Keyword(s):  
Behavioral Model ◽  
Healthcare Services ◽  
Cross Sectional Study ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Social ◽  
Seeking Help ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Efforts to control the spread of the novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic include drastic measures such as isolation, social distancing, and lockdown. These restrictions are accompanied by serious adverse consequences such as forgoing of healthcare. The study aimed to assess the prevalence and correlates of forgone care for a variety of healthcare services during a two-month COVID-19 lockdown, using Andersen’s Behavioral Model of Healthcare Utilization. A cross-sectional study using computerized phone interviews was conducted with 302 Israeli Jewish participants aged 40 and above. Almost half of the participants (49%) reported a delay in seeking help for at least one needed healthcare service during the COVID-19 lockdown period. Among the predisposing factors, we found that participants aged 60+, being more religious, and reporting higher levels of COVID-19 fear were more likely to report forgone care than younger, less religious and less concerned participants. Among need factors, a statistically significant association was found with a reported diagnosis of diabetes, with participants with the disease having a considerably higher likelihood of forgone care. The findings stress the importance of developing interventions aimed at mitigating the phenomenon of forgoing care while creating nonconventional ways of consuming healthcare services. In the short term, healthcare services need to adapt to the social distancing and isolation measures required to stanch the epidemic. In the long term, policymakers should consider alternative ways of delivering healthcare services to the public regularly and during crisis without losing sight of their budgetary consequences. They must recognize the possibility of having to align medical staff to the changing demand for healthcare services under conditions of health uncertainty.

scholarly journals COVID-19: A HEALTH PERSPECTIVE

2021 ◽  
Vol 04 (01) ◽  
pp. 57-81
Author(s):  
SHEENA WONG ◽  
GOH JING EN ◽  
DAVID KOH
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Severe Pneumonia ◽  
Unknown Origin ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Diagnostic Methods ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Infection Control Measures ◽  
Rapid Characterization ◽  
Silver Lining

A severe pneumonia of an unknown origin was reported in Wuhan, China in December 2019. The disease, now known as coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), has evolved into a public health emergency of international concern and wreaked worldwide havoc. An unprecedented and vigorous scientific response has allowed the accelerated discovery of the virus and reliable diagnostic methods; a rapid characterization of the disease and its impacts so as to better apply precautionary and public health measures; and resulted in remarkable progress in the development of mitigation strategies, including the development of vaccines at breakneck speed. This paper provides a health perspective of the virus and the pandemic it caused, based on available best evidence. Controversies surrounding the origin of the virus, its incubation period and infectivity, presentation and course of the disease, testing, as well as treatments and vaccinations are highlighted. The pandemic response, including infection control measures, and considerations on mental and economic health, alongside physical health is discussed. Moving forward, it is important that the global community is aware and better informed. More resources are needed to strengthen public health systems and healthcare infrastructure and delivery. This virus has the potential to persist and become endemic and seasonal in communities. Thus, non-pharmaceutical interventions (e.g. wearing masks, frequent hand washing, etc.) might become the new normal in a post-pandemic world. The silver lining in the COVID-19 cloud may be the lessons it provides, so that we may be better prepared to respond to an inevitable next pandemic.

scholarly journals Social Responsibilities in COVID-19: Pandemic

2021 ◽  
pp. 149-153
Author(s):  
Mayur B. Wanjari ◽  
Deeplata Mendhe ◽  
Pratibha Wankhede ◽  
Sagar Alwadkar
Keyword(s):  
Death Rate ◽  
Respiratory Infections ◽  
The United States ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Social Responsibilities ◽  
The Social ◽  
The World ◽  
Coronavirus Infection ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Day By Day

Recent coronavirus discovered causes the coronavirus infection COVID-19 is also an infectious disease known to cause severe respiratory infections. This most recent virus and infection were unidentified until the epidemic in Wuhan in December 2019, China. Coronavirus has spread around the world and been declared a pandemic by the WHO. The disease has infected several nations, including Italy, Spain, and the United States, with brutality as the death rate rises day by day. The illness may transmit to cough or sneezes via small droplets. Therefore, social distancing is the only way to prevent the transmission as There is no vaccine available for prevention from thecoronavirus. One can reduce the chances of being infected by taking some social distancing measures which will reduce COVID-19 transmission. In the pandemic COVID-19, every individual’s responsibility is to follow all the social distancing measures, to follow the lockdown without being casual about the disease, to save our self, our family, community, and nation from novel coronavirus.

scholarly journals Internet Hospitals Help Prevent and Control the Epidemic of COVID-19 in China: Multicenter User Profiling Study (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kai Gong ◽  
Zhong Xu ◽  
Zhefeng Cai ◽  
Yuxiu Chen ◽  
Zhanxiang Wang
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
User Profiling ◽  
Kappa Score ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Logistic Regression Models ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Social ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
And Control

BACKGROUND During the spread of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), internet hospitals in China were engaged with epidemic prevention and control, offering epidemic-related online services and medical support to the public. OBJECTIVE The aim of this study is to explore the role of internet hospitals during the prevention and control of the COVID-19 outbreak in China. METHODS Online epidemic-related consultations from multicenter internet hospitals in China during the COVID-19 epidemic were collected. The counselees were described and classified into seven type groups. Symptoms were recorded and compared with reported patients with COVID-19. Hypochondriacal suspicion and offline visit motivation were detected within each counselees’ group to evaluate the social panic of the epidemic along with the consequent medical-seeking behaviors. The counselees’ motivation and the doctors’ recommendation for an offline visit were compared. Risk factors affecting the counselees’ tendency of hypochondriacal suspicion and offline visit motivation were explored by logistic regression models. The epidemic prevention and control measures based on internet hospitals were listed, and the corresponding effects were discussed. RESULTS A total of 4913 consultations were enrolled for analysis with the median age of the counselees at 28 years (IQR 22-33 years). There were 104 (2.12%) healthy counselees, 147 (2.99%) hypochondriacal counselees, 34 (0.69%) exposed counselees, 853 (17.36%) mildly suspicious counselees, 42 (0.85%) moderately suspicious counselees, 3550 (72.26%) highly suspicious counselees, and 183 (3.72%) severely suspicious counselees. A total of 94.20% (n=4628) of counselees had epidemic-related symptoms with a distribution similar to those of COVID-19. The hypochondriacal suspicion (n=2167, 44.11%) was common. The counselees’ motivation and the doctors’ recommendation for offline visits were inconsistent (<i>P</i>&lt;.001) with a Cohen kappa score of 0.039, indicating improper medical-seeking behaviors. Adult counselees (odds ratio [OR]=1.816, <i>P</i>&lt;.001) with epidemiological exposure (OR 7.568, <i>P</i>&lt;.001), shortness of breath (OR 1.440, <i>P</i>=.001), diarrhea (OR 1.272, <i>P</i>=.04), and unrelated symptoms (OR 1.509, <i>P</i>&lt;.001) were more likely to have hypochondriacal suspicion. Counselees with severe illnesses (OR 2.303, <i>P</i>&lt;.001), fever (OR 1.660, <i>P</i>&lt;.001), epidemiological exposure history (OR 1.440, <i>P</i>=.01), and hypochondriacal suspicion (OR 4.826, <i>P</i>&lt;.001) were more likely to attempt an offline visit. Reattending counselees (OR 0.545, <i>P</i>=.002) were less motivated to go to the offline clinic. CONCLUSIONS Internet hospitals can serve different types of epidemic counselees, offer essential medical supports to the public during the COVID-19 outbreak, reduce the social panic, promote social distancing, enhance the public’s ability of self-protection, correct improper medical-seeking behaviors, reduce the chance of nosocomial cross-infection, and facilitate epidemiological screening, thus, playing an important role on preventing and controlling COVID-19.

scholarly journals Prediction of the Epidemic Peak of Covid19 in Egypt, 2020

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eman D. El Desouky
Keyword(s):  
Social Behavior ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Social Behaviors ◽  
Compartmental Models ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Peak Time ◽  
New Novel ◽  
First Case ◽  
The Social ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

AbstractObjectivesSince December 2019 a pandemic of new novel coronavirus has started from Wuhan, China, in Egypt, the first case reported on February 14, 2020. In this study we aimed to predict the time of possible peak and simulate the changes could be happen by the social behavior of Egyptians during Ramadan (the holy month).MethodsSIR and SEIR compartmental models were used to predict the peak time. We simulated different expected scenarios based to examine their effects on the peak timing.ResultsWe found that the peak most likely to be in middle of June 2020. Simulating different transmission rate probability and R0 the earliest peak could to be in the May 20 and latest one could be in 18 July. The peak shifted much earlier to 11th April 2020 without lockdown and other mitigation strategies.ConclusionSocial behaviors of citizens during the holy month will dramatically affect the peak timing. Mitigations strategies and other lockdown measure helped to delay the expected peak.

scholarly journals Modeling the Effective Control Strategy for the Transmission Dynamics of Global Pandemic COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. H. A. Biswas ◽  
M. S. Khatun ◽  
A. K. Paul ◽  
M. R. Khatun ◽  
M. A. Islam ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Maximum Principle ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Pontryagin’S Maximum Principle ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Human Immune System ◽  
Pontryagin's Maximum Principle ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Major Factors

AbstractThe novel coronavirus disease (namely COVID-19) has taken attention because of its deadliness across the globe, causing a massive death as well as critical situation around the world. It is an infectious disease which is caused by newly discovered coronavirus. Our study demonstrates with a nonlinear model of this devastating COVID-19 which narrates transmission from human-to-human in the society. Pontryagin’s Maximum principle has also been applied in order to obtain optimal control strategies where the maintenance of social distancing is the major control. The target of this study is to find out the most fruitful control measures of averting coronavirus infection and eventually, curtailed of the COVID-19 transmission among people. The model is investigated analytically by using most familiar necessary conditions of Pontryagin’s maximum principle. Furthermore, numerical simulations have been performed to illustrate the analytical results. The analysis reveals that implementation of educational campaign, social distancing and developing human immune system are the major factors which can be able to plunge the scenario of becoming infected.

scholarly journals Modelling the Potential Impact of Social Distancing on the COVID-19 Epidemic in South Africa

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
F. Nyabadza ◽  
F. Chirove ◽  
C. W. Chukwu ◽  
M. V. Visaya
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Deterministic Model ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Social ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
Policy Direction ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Impact

The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic continues to be a global health problem whose impact has been significantly felt in South Africa. With the global spread increasing and infecting millions, containment efforts by countries have largely focused on lockdowns and social distancing to minimise contact between persons. Social distancing has been touted as the best form of response in managing a rapid increase in the number of infected cases. In this paper, we present a deterministic model to describe the impact of social distancing on the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in South Africa. The model is fitted to data from March 5 to April 13, 2020, on the cumulative number of infected cases, and a scenario analysis on different levels of social distancing is presented. The model shows that with the levels of social distancing under the initial lockdown level between March 26 and April 13, 2020, there would be a projected continued rise in the number of infected cases. The model also looks at the impact of relaxing the social distancing measures after the initial announcement of the lockdown. It is shown that relaxation of social distancing by 2% can result in a 23% rise in the number of cumulative cases whilst an increase in the level of social distancing by 2% would reduce the number of cumulative cases by about 18%. The model results accurately predicted the number of cases after the initial lockdown level was relaxed towards the end of April 2020. These results have implications on the management and policy direction in the early phase of the epidemic.

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