scholarly journals Substantial underestimation of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the United States due to incomplete testing and imperfect test accuracy

Author(s):  
Sean L Wu ◽  
Andrew Mertens ◽  
Yoshika S Crider ◽  
Anna Nguyen ◽  
Nolan N Pokpongkiat ◽  
...  

Accurate estimates of the burden of SARS-CoV-2 infection are critical to informing pandemic response. Current confirmed COVID-19 case counts in the U.S. do not capture the total burden of the pandemic because testing has been primarily restricted to individuals with moderate to severe symptoms due to limited test availability. Using a semi-Bayesian probabilistic bias analysis to account for incomplete testing and imperfect diagnostic accuracy, we estimated 6,275,072 cumulative infections compared to 721,245 confirmed cases (1.9% vs. 0.2% of the population) as of April 18, 2020. Accounting for uncertainty, the number of infections was 3 to 20 times higher than the number of confirmed cases. 86% (simulation interval: 64-99%) of this difference was due to incomplete testing, while 14% (0.3-36%) was due to imperfect test accuracy. Estimates of SARS-CoV-2 infections that transparently account for testing practices and diagnostic accuracy reveal that the pandemic is larger than confirmed case counts suggest.

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sean L. Wu ◽  
Andrew N. Mertens ◽  
Yoshika S. Crider ◽  
Anna Nguyen ◽  
Nolan N. Pokpongkiat ◽  
...  

Abstract Accurate estimates of the burden of SARS-CoV-2 infection are critical to informing pandemic response. Confirmed COVID-19 case counts in the U.S. do not capture the total burden of the pandemic because testing has been primarily restricted to individuals with moderate to severe symptoms due to limited test availability. Here, we use a semi-Bayesian probabilistic bias analysis to account for incomplete testing and imperfect diagnostic accuracy. We estimate 6,454,951 cumulative infections compared to 721,245 confirmed cases (1.9% vs. 0.2% of the population) in the United States as of April 18, 2020. Accounting for uncertainty, the number of infections during this period was 3 to 20 times higher than the number of confirmed cases. 86% (simulation interval: 64–99%) of this difference is due to incomplete testing, while 14% (0.3–36%) is due to imperfect test accuracy. The approach can readily be applied in future studies in other locations or at finer spatial scale to correct for biased testing and imperfect diagnostic accuracy to provide a more realistic assessment of COVID-19 burden.


Author(s):  
Alexander A. Kaurov ◽  
Vyacheslav Bazhenov ◽  
Mark SubbaRao

The COVID-19 global pandemic unprecedently disturbed the education system in the United States and lead to the closure of all planetariums that were providing immersive science communication. This situation motivates us to examine how accessible the planetarium facilities were before the pandemic. We investigate the most important socioeconomic and geographical factors that affect the planetarium accessibility using the U.S. Census Bureau data and the commute time to the nearest planetarium for each ZIP Code Tabulated Area. We show the magnitude of the effect of permanent closure of a fraction of planetariums. Our study can be informative for strategizing the pandemic response.


Author(s):  
Anastasia S. Lambrou ◽  
John T. Redd ◽  
Miles A. Stewart ◽  
Kaitlin Rainwater-Lovett ◽  
Jonathan K. Thornhill ◽  
...  

Abstract Monoclonal antibody therapeutics to treat COVID-19 have been authorized by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration under Emergency Use Authorization (EUA). Many barriers exist when deploying a novel therapeutic during an ongoing pandemic, and it is critical to assess the needs of incorporating monoclonal antibody infusions into pandemic response activities. We examined the monoclonal antibody infusion site process during the COVID-19 pandemic and conducted a descriptive analysis using data from three sites at medical centers in the U.S. supported by the National Disaster Medical System. Monoclonal antibody implementation success factors included engagement with local medical providers, therapy batch preparation, placing the infusion center in proximity to emergency services, and creating procedures resilient to EUA changes. Infusion process challenges included confirming patient SARS-CoV-2 positivity, strained staff, scheduling, and pharmacy coordination. Infusion sites are effective when integrated into pre-existing pandemic response ecosystems and can be implemented with limited staff and physical resources.


Author(s):  
Heather Reese ◽  
A Danielle Iuliano ◽  
Neha N Patel ◽  
Shikha Garg ◽  
Lindsay Kim ◽  
...  

Abstract Background In the United States, laboratory confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is nationally notifiable. However, reported case counts are recognized to be less than the true number of cases because detection and reporting are incomplete and can vary by disease severity, geography, and over time. Methods To estimate the cumulative incidence SARS-CoV-2 infections, symptomatic illnesses, and hospitalizations, we adapted a simple probabilistic multiplier model. Laboratory-confirmed case counts that were reported nationally were adjusted for sources of under-detection based on testing practices in inpatient and outpatient settings and assay sensitivity. Results We estimated that through the end of September, 1 of every 2.5 (95% Uncertainty Interval (UI): 2.0–3.1) hospitalized infections and 1 of every 7.1 (95% UI: 5.8–9.0) non-hospitalized illnesses may have been nationally reported. Applying these multipliers to reported SARS-CoV-2 cases along with data on the prevalence of asymptomatic infection from published systematic reviews, we estimate that 2.4 million hospitalizations, 44.8 million symptomatic illnesses, and 52.9 million total infections may have occurred in the U.S. population from February 27–September 30, 2020. Conclusions These preliminary estimates help demonstrate the societal and healthcare burdens of the COVID-19 pandemic and can help inform resource allocation and mitigation planning.


Blood ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 116 (21) ◽  
pp. 4754-4754
Author(s):  
Julia R Trosman ◽  
Christine B Weldon ◽  
Gregory J Tsongalis ◽  
Kathryn A Phillips

Abstract Abstract 4754 Background. BCR-ABL transcript monitoring is a guideline recommended component of Chronic Myeloid Leukemia (CML) management. BCR-ABL monitoring in the U.S. is mainly done using laboratory developed tests (LDTs). Studies found accuracy and reliability problems with LDTs which may lead to undesirable health and economic impacts (Gabert et al, Leukemia, 2003, Zhang et al, J Mol Diagn 2007, Muller et al, Leukemia 2008). There are ongoing efforts to standardize BCR-ABL LDTs in the U.S. and globally (Hughes et al, Blood 2006, Branford et al Blood 2006). A standardized BCR-ABL monitoring test (SBAT) may be an effective method to propagate standardization and improve quality of BCR-ABL testing. A standardized BCR-ABL monitoring test is one which minimizes operator error, and is stringently reviewed and shown to be validated under health authorities’ quality systems regulations (principally Food and Drug Administration's Quality Systems Regulations and European Union's In-Vitro Diagnostics Directive), ensuring the safety and effectiveness of the test, as well as its reliable performance across multiple operators and labs through a thorough examination of its initial design, manufacturing, and associated processes. Our study qualitatively assessed potential benefits and drawbacks of adopting a SBAT, compared to current LDTs. Methods. We conducted peer-reviewed and grey literature review to answer questions: (1) How may the shortcomings of current BCR-ABL LDTs be impacting patient care, outcomes and quality of life? (2) How may adoption of a SBAT address the LDT shortcomings and propagate standardization? (3) What are potential health, economic and care process benefits and drawbacks of SBAT adoption for healthcare stakeholders? Results. We identified BCR-ABL LDT shortcomings: (a) methodologic shortcomings resulting in suboptimal test accuracy; (b) process shortcomings (e.g. operator error; batch to batch variation in materials) leading to suboptimal reproducibility and (c) variability in methods across labs leading to incomparability of results. Three key results are: (1) Inaccurate over-quantitation of BCR-ABL results may lead to unnecessary further testing (e.g. mutation testing; bone marrow cytogenetic testing) and misinformed therapy decisions, e.g. drug dose escalation. False under-quantitation may lead to missed indications of relapse, resistance to therapy, or problems with therapy compliance. Due to result incomparability, patients often cannot change providers without losing testing history which may impact life decisions such as relocation. (2) A SBAT may address most LDT process shortcomings and important methodologic shortcomings. Consequently, if a SBAT is adopted broadly it may reduce inter- and intra-lab variability. It may also address limitations of standardization efforts, such as minimizing operator error and increasing compliance with harmonization guidelines. (3) SBAT adoption is likely to provide substantial benefits in health outcomes and quality of life to patients who may otherwise receive inaccurate results. Benefits in care process are anticipated to outweigh drawbacks. Benefits include faster results, increased confidence in results, ability to get a second opinion or transition patient care to different providers. Drawbacks may include implementation efforts, and getting used to new report formats by patients and physicians. BCR-ABL testing history may potentially be incomparable for some existing patients if laboratories do not implement effective data transition. We anticipate that the economic impact of SBAT adoption on the healthcare system will be limited due to the relatively small CML patient population. A significant financial impact may be on labs. Some labs may benefit by bringing BCR-ABL test in-house, but this may reduce test volume for labs that provide this as a centralized service. Conclusions. Implementing a standardized BCR-ABL monitoring test (SBAT) is likely to significantly benefit CML patients’ health and quality of life and provide better utility to providers than LDTs. A SBAT will contribute to addressing the broader quality of diagnostics challenge recognized by payers, providers, guideline bodies and government authorities. A SBAT represents an incremental improvement in a field that has relatively few patients, but potentially paves the way to similar developments in other blood cancers and beyond. Disclosures: Trosman: Novartis: Consultancy. Weldon:Novartis: Consultancy. Tsongalis:Novartis: Consultancy. Phillips:Novartis: Consultancy, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees.


2021 ◽  
Vol 37 (9) ◽  
Author(s):  
Erik Alencar de Figueiredo ◽  
Démerson André Polli ◽  
Bernardo Borba de Andrade

Abstract: Using data collected by the Brazilian National Household Sample Survey - COVID-19 (PNAD-COVID19) and semi-Bayesian modelling developed by Wu et al., we have estimated the effect of underreporting of COVID-19 cases in Brazil as of December 2020. The total number of infected individuals is about 3 to 8 times the number of cases reported, depending on the state. Confirmed cases are at 3.1% of the total population and our estimate of total cases is at almost 15% of the approximately 212 million Brazilians as of 2020. The method we adopted from Wu et al., with slight modifications in prior specifications, applies bias corrections to account for incomplete testing and imperfect test accuracy. Our estimates, which are comparable to results obtained by Wu et al. for the United States, indicate that projections from compartmental models (such as SEIR models) tend to overestimate the number of infections and that there is considerable regional heterogeneity (results are presented by state).


Author(s):  
Adrian A. Pater ◽  
Michael S. Bosmeny ◽  
Christopher L. Barkau ◽  
Katy N. Ovington ◽  
Ramadevi Chilamkurthy ◽  
...  

AbstractGenomic surveillance can lead to early identification of novel viral variants and inform pandemic response. Using this approach, we identified a new variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus that emerged in the United States (U.S.). The earliest sequenced genomes of this variant, referred to as 20C-US, can be traced to Texas in late May of 2020. This variant circulated in the U.S. uncharacterized for months and rose to recent prevalence during the third pandemic wave. It initially acquired five novel, relatively unique non-synonymous mutations. 20C-US is continuing to acquire multiple new mutations, including three independently occurring spike protein mutations. Monitoring the ongoing evolution of 20C-US, as well as other novel emerging variants, will be essential for understanding SARS-CoV-2 host adaptation and predicting pandemic outcomes.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anastasia S Lambrou ◽  
John T Redd ◽  
Miles A Stewart ◽  
Kaitlin Rainwater-Lovett ◽  
Jonathan K Thornhill ◽  
...  

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic caught the globe unprepared without targeted medical countermeasures, such as therapeutics, to target the emerging SARS-CoV-2 virus. However, in recent months multiple monoclonal antibody therapeutics to treat COVID-19 have been authorized by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) under Emergency Use Authorization (EUA). Despite these authorizations and promising clinical trial efficacy results, monoclonal antibody therapies are currently underutilized as a treatment for COVID-19 across the U.S. Many barriers exist when deploying a new infused therapeutic during an ongoing pandemic with limited resources and staffing, and it is critical to better understand the process and site requirements of incorporating monoclonal antibody infusions into pandemic response activities. Methods: We examined the monoclonal antibody infusion site process components, resources, and requirements during the COVID-19 pandemic using data from three initial infusion sites at medical centers in the U.S. supported by the National Disaster Medical System. A descriptive analysis was conducted using process assessment metrics to inform recommendations to strengthen monoclonal antibody infusion site implementation. Results: The monoclonal antibody infusion sites varied in physical environment and staffing models due to state polices, infection control mechanisms, and underlying medical system structure, but exhibited a common process workflow. Sites operationalized an infusion process staffing model with at least two nurses per ten infusion patients. Monoclonal antibody implementation success factors included tailoring the infusion process to the patient community, strong engagement with local medical providers, batch preparing the therapy before patient arrival, placing the infusion center in proximity to emergency services, and creating procedures resilient to EUA changes. Infusion process challenges stemmed from confirming patient SARS-CoV-2 positivity, strained staff, scheduling needs, and coordination with the pharmacy for therapy preparation. Conclusions: Infusion site processes are most effective when integrated into the pre-existing pandemic response ecosystems and can be implemented with limited staff and physical resources. As the pandemic and policy tools such as EUAs evolve, monoclonal antibody infusion processes must also remain adaptable, as practice changes directly affect resources, staffing, timing, and workflows. Future use may be aided by incorporating innovative emergency deployment techniques, such as vehicle and home-based therapy administration, and by developing drug delivery mechanisms that alleviate the need for observed intravenous infusions by medically-accredited staff.


Author(s):  
Rosina Lozano

An American Language is a political history of the Spanish language in the United States. The nation has always been multilingual and the Spanish language in particular has remained as an important political issue into the present. After the U.S.-Mexican War, the Spanish language became a language of politics as Spanish speakers in the U.S. Southwest used it to build territorial and state governments. In the twentieth century, Spanish became a political language where speakers and those opposed to its use clashed over what Spanish's presence in the United States meant. This book recovers this story by using evidence that includes Spanish language newspapers, letters, state and territorial session laws, and federal archives to profile the struggle and resilience of Spanish speakers who advocated for their language rights as U.S. citizens. Comparing Spanish as a language of politics and as a political language across the Southwest and noncontiguous territories provides an opportunity to measure shifts in allegiance to the nation and exposes differing forms of nationalism. Language concessions and continued use of Spanish is a measure of power. Official language recognition by federal or state officials validates Spanish speakers' claims to US citizenship. The long history of policies relating to language in the United States provides a way to measure how U.S. visions of itself have shifted due to continuous migration from Latin America. Spanish-speaking U.S. citizens are crucial arbiters of Spanish language politics and their successes have broader implications on national policy and our understanding of Americans.


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