realistic assessment
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Author(s):  
Ruslan Pliushch ◽  
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Viktoriia Filippova ◽  
Oksana Pronina ◽  
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...  

Globalization has become one of the factors that led to the formation of a new concept of national security, according to which it is an integral part of the system of the highest level (regional, international, global security), which is a consequence of the integration of the world community in an effort to overcome common threats and challenges. Provision of national security is the main task of the foreign policy of the state, the aim of the national security policy is protection of the state and society from external threats. It is established that national security is a process that includes various measures that guarantee the long and free existence and national (state) development, including the protection and defense of the state as a political institution, and the protection of people and the entire society, their benefits and the natural environment from threats that significantly limit its functioning or harm the benefits subject to special protection. The analysis of the process of formation and development of ideas and views on the problem of defining the essence and content of national security showed that national security acts as an extremely complex, contradictory and long-term, but very important and necessary process to ensure sustainable development of society and state, the preconditions of which were established in different historical eras. It has been proved that national security policy and strategy should define the roles and boundaries of different actors of the country's security, appropriate mechanisms of coordination of their activities and rules of interagency support. In the context of globalization, national security strategies should include a realistic assessment of the costs and sustainability of security institutions and plan their development, in addition, national security strategies and policies are not static and require periodic updating.


2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 601-622
Author(s):  
Nikola Štefanišinová ◽  
Nikoleta Jakuš Muthová ◽  
Jana Štrangfeldová ◽  
Katarína Šulajová

Data-intensive technologies, such as artificial intelligence, imply huge opportunities for transforming the delivery of healthcare and social services, improving people’s quality of life and working in the health and welfare system. The aim of this paper is to present examples of the implementation of artificial intelligence techniques in healthcare and social services and to sketch the trends and challenges in the adoption of artificial intelligence techniques, with an emphasis on the public sector and selected public services. Analysis is based on a realistic assessment of current artificial intelligence technologies and their anticipated development. Besides the benefits and potential opportunities for healthcare and social services, there are also challenges for governments. Understanding the huge potential of artificial intelligence as well as its limitations will be a key step forward, but it is essential to avoid the trap of an overestimation of artificial intelligence potential.


2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Adeshina Afolayan

Let us begin with an unfortunate fact: Adébáyọ̀ Fálétí is one major writer that is hardly anthologized. The problem could not have been that he wrote in Yorùbá because Fágúnwà is far more anthologized than he is. Simon Gikandi’s edited Encyclopedia of African Literature (2003) has an entry and other multiple references to Fágúnwà. There is only one reference to Fálétí which is found in the index without any accompanying instance in the work. In Irele and Gikandi’s edited volumes, The Cambridge History of African and Caribbean Literature (2004), Fálétí only managed an appearance in the bibliography that featured four of his works—Wọn Rò Pé Wèrè Ni ́ (1965), Ọmọ Olókùn Ẹṣin (1969), Baṣòrun Gáà (1972) and Ìdààmú Páàdì Mínkáílù (1974). In the preface, Irele and Gikandi write: The scholarly interest in African orality also drew attention to the considerable body of literature in the African languages that had come into existence as a consequence of the reduction of these languages to writing, one of the enduring effects of Christian evangelization. The ancient tradition of Ethiopian literature in Ge’ez, and modern works like Thomas Mofolo’s Shaka in the Sotho language, and the series of Yorùbá novels by D. O. Fágúnwà, were thus able finally to receive the consideration they deserved. African-language literatures came to be regarded as a distinct province of the general landscape of imaginative life and literary activity on the African continent (2004, xiii). Essays 60 Adeshina Afolayan In fact, the publication of Fágúnwà’s Ògbójù Ọdẹ Nínú Igbó Ìrúnmalẹ (The ̀ Intrepid Hunter in the Forest of Spirits, 1938) made the chronology of literary events in Africa, and it misses out Fálétí’s 1965 work. In her “Literature in Yorùbá: poetry and prose; traveling theater and modern drama,” in the same volume, Karin Barber seems to redress this imbalance when she gives a place to Fálétí in her discussion of post-Fágúnwà writers. According to her, In the late 1960s and throughout the 1970s there was an explosion of literary creativity, with many new authors emerging and pioneering new styles and themes. Among the most prominent were Adébáyọ Fálétí whose ̀ Ọmọ Olókùn Ẹṣin (1969) is a historical novel dealing with a revolt against the overlordship of Ọyọ, and Ọládèjọ Òkédìjí, author of two brilliantly innovative crime thrillers (Àjà ló lẹrù, 1969, and Àgbàlagbà Akàn, 1971), as well as a more somber tragic novel of the destruction of a young boy who is relentlessly drawn into a life of crime in the underworld of Ifẹ (Atótó Arére, 1981). Notable also are Akínwùnmí Ìsòlá, whose university campus novel Ó le kú (1974) broke new ground in social setting and ambience; Afọlábí Ọlábímtán, author of several novels, including Kékeré Ẹkùn (1967), which deals with the conflicts arising from early Christian conversion in a small village, and Baba Rere! (1978), a contemporary satire on a corrupt big man; and Kólá Akínlàdé, prolific author of well-crafted detective stories such as Ta ló pa Ọmọ Ọba? (Who Killed the Prince’s Child?). These authors were all verbal stylists of a high order; they transformed the literary language, moving away from Fágúnwà’s rolling cadences to a more demotic, supple prose that successfully caught the accents of everyday life (2004, 368). While it may be misplaced to draw a comparison between Fágúnwà and Fálétí, there is a sense in which Fálétí’s demonstrates a more robust literary sensibility that goes beyond the allegorical into a realistic assessment of human relationship and sociality within the context of the Yorùbá cultural template. While Fágúnwà could not resist the influence of Christianity, and especially the allegorical motif of the journey in which humans encounter spiritual challenges (which John Bunyan’s Pilgrim Progress made popular), Fálétí is fundamentally a cultural connoisseur; a writer with a most intimate and dynamic understanding of the Yorùbá condition, especially in its conjunction with the political and sociocultural contexts of contemporary Nigeria. And we have Ọlátúndé Ọlátúnjí to thank for the deep exploration and interrogation of the fundamental poetic and literary nuances that Fálétí has left for us. In this essay, I will attempt to unearth the philosophical sensibility that undergirds Fálétí’s literary prowess, especially as demonstrated by his poems. Fálétí’s Philosophical Sensibility 61 Both the poets and the philosophers have always had one thing in common— the exploration of the possibilities that ideas and visions yield: As theoretical disciplines concerned with raising social consciousness, philosophy and literature engage in similar speculation about the good society and what is good for humanity. They influence thoughts about political currents and conditions. They can, for instance, lead the reader to critical reflections on the type of leaders suitable for a given society and on the degree of civic consciousness exercised by the people in protecting their rights. Philosophy and literature, equally, offer critical evaluation of existing and possible forms of political arrangements, beliefs and practices. In addition, they provide insights into political concepts and justification for normative judgements about politics and society. They also create awareness of possibilities for change (Okolo 2007, 1). Compared to Ọlátúnjí’s exploratory unraveling of Fálétí’s poetry, my objective is to enlist Fálétí as a poet that has not been given his due as one who is sensitive to the requirements of political philosophy and its objective of ensuring the imagination of a society that is properly ordered according to the imperatives of justice.  


2021 ◽  
Vol 47 (11) ◽  
pp. 500-502
Author(s):  
John Hardie

The possibility of hepatitis C being transmitted between dental patients was the genesis of an extensive and expensive look-back investigation conducted by an Ontario Public Health Unit. This investigation was performed with a minimal knowledge of nosocomial infections of dental origin, an enthusiastic reliance on untested checklist indicators and an absence of any of the criteria justifying such an investigation. As a consequence, the entire exercise was based on the false premise that an infection control lapse had occurred. This commentary will address these flaws, and other aspects of the Public Health Unit’s response that detracted from its credibility. The provision of a realistic assessment of disease transmission in dentistry should result in Public Health Units conducting informed and mutually beneficial inspections of dental practices.


Author(s):  
Julien Walzberg ◽  
Alberta Carpenter ◽  
Garvin A. Heath

AbstractBy 2050, the cumulative mass of end-of-life photovoltaic (PV) modules may reach 80 Mt globally. The impacts could be mitigated by module recycling, repair and reuse; however, previous studies of PV circularity omit the consideration of critical social factors. Here we used an agent-based model to integrate social aspects with techno-economic factors, which provides a more realistic assessment of the circularity potential for previously studied interventions that assesses additional interventions that cannot be analysed using techno-economic analysis alone. We also performed a global sensitivity analysis using a machine-learning metamodel. We show that to exclude social factors underestimates the effect of lower recycling prices on PV material circularity, which highlights the relevance of considering social factors in future studies. Interventions aimed at changing customer attitudes about used PV boost the reuse of modules, although used modules can only satisfy one-third of the US demand during 2020–2050, which suggests that reuse should be complemented by recycling.


Author(s):  
Hyeokhyen Kwon ◽  
Bingyao Wang ◽  
Gregory D. Abowd ◽  
Thomas Plötz

Recently, IMUTube introduced a paradigm change for bootstrapping human activity recognition (HAR) systems for wearables. The key idea is to utilize videos of activities to support training activity recognizers based on inertial measurement units (IMUs). This system retrieves video from public repositories and subsequently generates virtual IMU data from this. The ultimate vision for such a system is to make large amounts of weakly labeled videos accessible for model training in HAR and, as such, to overcome one of the most pressing issues in the field: the lack of significant amounts of labeled sample data. In this paper we present the first in-detail exploration of IMUTube in a realistic assessment scenario: the analysis of free-weight gym exercises. We make significant progress towards a flexible, fully-functional IMUTube system by extending it such that it can handle a range of artifacts that are common in unrestricted online videos, including various forms of video noise, non-human poses, body part occlusions, and extreme camera and human motion. By overcoming these real-world challenges, we are able to generate high-quality virtual IMU data, which allows us to employ IMUTube for practical analysis tasks. We show that HAR systems trained by incorporating virtual sensor data generated by IMUTube significantly outperform baseline models trained only with real IMU data. In doing so we demonstrate the practical utility of IMUTube and the progress made towards the final vision of the new bootstrapping paradigm.


Geosciences ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 297
Author(s):  
Luca Martelli

The estimation of seismic shaking is essential for a realistic assessment of the local seismic hazard and the implementation of effective strategies for prevention and mitigation of the seismic risk. One of the most important aspects in the analysis of the site seismic assessment is the recognition of the seismic bedrock and its depth. Unfortunately, these data are not always easy to evaluate, especially in areas where the thickness of loose or poorly consolidated sediments is high. This article illustrates data and case studies from the Emilia-Romagna sector of the Po Plain, in order to provide examples and suggestions for the recognition of the seismic bedrock in alluvial and coastal areas characterised by significant thicknesses of unconsolidated sediments, using available data and not expensive geophysical surveys. The application of the proposed method indicates that the study area can be divided into four domains characterized by different depths of the seismic bedrock: the marginal or pede-Apennine belt, the high structural zones, the syncline/minor anticline zones, and the Po delta-coast zone.


2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 649-664
Author(s):  
Majid Shafiee-Jood ◽  
Tatyana Deryugina ◽  
Ximing Cai

AbstractForecast valuation studies play a key role in understanding the determinants of the value of weather and climate forecasts. Such understanding provides opportunities to increase the value that users can obtain from forecasts, which can in turn increase the use of forecasts. One of the most important factors that influences how users process forecast information and incorporate forecasts into their decision-making is trust in forecasts. Despite the evidence from empirical and field-based studies, modeling users’ trust in forecasts has not received much attention in the literature and is therefore the focus of our study. We propose a theoretical model of trust in information, built into a forecast valuation framework, to better understand 1) the role of trust in users’ processing of drought forecast information and 2) the dynamic process of users’ trust formation and evolution. Using a numerical experiment, we show that considering the dynamic nature of trust is critical in more realistic assessment of forecast value. We find that users may not perceive a potentially valuable forecast as such until they trust it enough, implying that exposure to even highly accurate forecasts may not immediately translate into forecast use. Ignoring this dynamic aspect could overestimate the economic gains from forecasts. Furthermore, the model offers hypotheses with regard to targeting strategies that can be tested with empirical and field-based studies and used to guide policy interventions.


2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 1201-1210
Author(s):  
Natalya Pavlovna Pazdnikova

The aim or the article is to concretize the concept of "strategic effect" within the framework of the project approach, which can be interpreted as the result of public project management. The research methodology of the public project management in Russian regions is presented on the base of the correlation analysis for the evaluation of the project management strategic effect. Authors believe that it is necessary to add additional components to the methodology for the formation of program budgets: the reflection of project forms of social interaction between the state and civil society. This proposal allows giving a more realistic assessment of the strategic effect of social partnership in negative conditions.


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