scholarly journals A modified SEIR Model with Confinement and Lockdown of COVID-19 for Costa Rica

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tomas de-Camino-Beck
Keyword(s):  
Costa Rica ◽  
Fast Moving ◽  
Modern Society ◽  
Emerging Diseases ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Contagious Disease ◽  
The World ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

The fast moving post-modern society allows for individuals to move fast in and between different countries, making it a perfect situation for the spread of emerging diseases. COVID-19 emerged with properties of a highly contagious disease, that has spread rapidly around the world. SIR/SEIR models are generally used to explain the dynamics of epidemics, however Coronavirus has shown dynamics with constant non-pharmaceutical interventions, making it difficult to model with these simple models. We extend an SEIR model to include a confinement compartment (SEICR) and use this to explain data from COVID-19 epidemic in Costa Rica. Then we discuss possible second wave of infection by adding a time varying function in the model to simulate cyclic interventions.

scholarly journals Dynamics of russian citizens’ social fears during the first and second waves of COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 41 (1) ◽  
pp. 27-38
Author(s):  
Victor V. Ermolaev ◽  
Julia Voroncova ◽  
Daria K. Nasonova ◽  
Alena I. Chetverikova
Keyword(s):  
Social Deprivation ◽  
Modern Society ◽  
Self Report ◽  
Russian Society ◽  
Sources Of Information ◽  
Self Confidence ◽  
The World ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Media ◽  
Second Wave

Background. The study of the psychological characteristics of social fears during the first wave of COVID-19 indicated that Russian citizens were massively in a state of fear. The persisting threat of a pandemic throughout the year, the inconsistency of managerial decisions in the absence of a coherent strategy to combat COVID-19, obviously create growing social tension in Russia, which is projected onto the psychological level of the state of modern society. Objective. To identify the dynamics of social fears among Russian citizens during the first and second waves of COVID-19. Hypothesis: there is a tendency for the growth of social fears among Russian citizens during the second wave of COVID-19, while the media continues to form a depressive and depressing “picture of the world”. Design. Psychodiagnostics was carried out remotely using Google forms. Sample size: 497 people. At the first stage (the first wave — March / April, 2020), 253 people were tested. At the second stage (second wave — October / November, 2020), 244 people passed testing, of which 150 took part in the periods of both the first and second waves, and 94 — only during the second wave. At the third stage, statistical analysis was carried out in order to identify the dynamics of social fears. Results. From the moment COVID-19 began to the peak of the second wave, Russian citizens showed negative dynamics, characterized by: 1) an increase in the experience of social fears associated with failure and defeat, as well as rejection and suppression; 2) an increase in the imbalance of trust caused by the growth of trust in the world and others, as trustworthy sources of information about the current danger, against the background of a steadily reduced trust in oneself; 3) a decrease in optimism and faith in the future with an increase in the intensity of emotional stress, as well as a desire to delegate responsibility for the events of one’s own life; 4) a general decrease in efficiency (based on the results of self-report). Conclusion. The information broadcast by the media about COVID-19 has a systemic psychological impact through the demonstration of a pessimistic “picture of the world”, which, creating an aggressive information field literally enveloping the psyche, destroys its self-confidence, social ties and group cohesion, and also fills it social fears, increasing the sense of social deprivation. The intended consequences will send the psychological community to develop a predictive model for overcoming this situation. In our opinion, the main thing in the work with the consequences of the pandemic is psychological assistance, the basis of which should be the methods of correction of the cognitive-affective sphere of the individual — the return of self-confidence and the transformation of the “picture of the world” of the present and future into a positive one. Particular attention should be paid to increasing collective cohesion and setting group goals that outline the future positive “picture of the world” of Russian society

scholarly journals The risk for a new COVID-19 wave – and how it depends on R0, the current immunity level and current restrictions

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tom Britton ◽  
Pieter Trapman ◽  
Frank Ball
Keyword(s):  
Preventive Measures ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Social Activity ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
The World ◽  
Two Factors ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Different Parts ◽  
Future Outbreak

AbstractThe COVID-19 pandemic has hit different parts of the world differently: some regions are still in the rise of the first wave, other regions are now facing a decline after a first wave, and yet other regions have started to see a second wave. The current immunity level î in a region is closely related to the cumulative fraction infected, which primarily depends on two factors: a) the initial potential for COVID-19 in the region (often quantified by the basic reproduction number R0), and b) the timing, amount and effectiveness of preventive measures put in place. By means of a mathematical model including heterogeneities owing to age, social activity and susceptibility, and allowing for time-varying preventive measures, the risk for a new epidemic wave and its doubling time, and how they depend on R0, î and the overall effect of the current preventive measures, are investigated. Focus lies on quantifying the minimal overall effect of preventive measures pMin needed to prevent a future outbreak. The first result shows that the current immunity level î plays a more influential roll than when immunity is obtained from vaccination. Secondly, by comparing regions with different R0 and î it is shown that regions with lower R0 and low î may now need higher preventive measures (pMin) compared with other regions having higher R0 but also higher î, even when such immunity levels are far from herd immunity.

scholarly journals Modeling the COVID-19 transmission in Italy: The roles of asymptomatic cases, social distancing, and lockdowns in the first and the second waves

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhamad Khairul Bahri
Keyword(s):  
Behavioral Measures ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The World ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Very High

AbstractThe SEIR model of COVID-19 is developed to investigate the roles of physical distancing, lockdowns and asymptomatic cases in Italy. In doing so, two types of policies including behavioral measures and lockdown measures are embedded in the model. Compared with existing models, the model successfully reproduces similar multiple observed outputs such as infected and recovered patients in Italy by July 2020. This study concludes that the first policy is important once the number of infected cases is relatively low. However, once the number of infected cases is very high so the society cannot identify infected and disinfected people, the second policy must be applied soon. It is thus this study suggests that relaxed lockdowns lead to the second wave of the COVID-19 around the world. It is hoped that the model can enhance our understanding on the roles of behavioral measures, lockdowns, and undocumented cases, so-called asymptomatic cases, on the COVID-19 flow.

scholarly journals Analysis of non-pharmaceutical interventions and their impacts on COVID-19 in Kerala

2022 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Elizabeth Goult ◽  
Shubha Sathyendranath ◽  
Žarko Kovač ◽  
Christina Eunjin Kong ◽  
Petar Stipanović ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Drug Therapy ◽  
Retrospective Analysis ◽  
The State ◽  
Effective Vaccine ◽  
International Media ◽  
South Indian ◽  
The World ◽  
Indian State ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

AbstractIn the absence of an effective vaccine or drug therapy, non-pharmaceutical interventions are the only option for control of the outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019, a pandemic with global implications. Each of the over 200 countries affected has followed its own path in dealing with the crisis, making it difficult to evaluate the effectiveness of measures implemented, either individually, or collectively. In this paper we analyse the case of the south Indian state of Kerala, which received much attention in the international media for its actions in containing the spread of the disease in the early months of the pandemic, but later succumbed to a second wave. We use a model to study the trajectory of the disease in the state during the first four months of the outbreak. We then use the model for a retrospective analysis of measures taken to combat the spread of the disease, to evaluate their impact. Because of the differences in the trajectory of the outbreak in Kerala, we argue that it is a model worthy of a place in the discussion on how the world might best handle this and other, future, pandemics.

scholarly journals COVID-19 in Kerala: analysis of measures and impacts

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elizabeth Goult ◽  
Shubha Sathyendranath ◽  
Žarko Kovač ◽  
Anas Abdulaziz ◽  
Nandini Menon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Drug Therapy ◽  
Retrospective Analysis ◽  
The State ◽  
Effective Vaccine ◽  
International Media ◽  
South Indian ◽  
The World ◽  
Indian State ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

Abstract In the absence of an effective vaccine or drug therapy, non-Pharmaceutical Interventions are the only option for control of the outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019, a pandemic with global implications. Each of the over 200 countries affected1 has followed its own path in dealing with the crisis, making it difficult to evaluate the effectiveness of measures implemented, either individually, or collectively. In this paper we analyse the case of the south Indian state of Kerala, which received much praise in the international media for its success in containing the spread of the disease in the early months of the pandemic, but is now in the grips of a second wave. We use a model to study the trajectory of the disease in the state during the first four months of the outbreak. We then use the model for a retrospective analysis of measures taken to combat the spread of the disease, to evaluate their impact. Because of the unusual aspects of the Kerala case, we argue that it is a model worthy of a place in the discussion on how the world might best handle this and other, future, pandemics.

scholarly journals Tracking R of COVID-19: A new real-time estimation using the Kalman filter

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. e0244474 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francisco Arroyo-Marioli ◽  
Francisco Bullano ◽  
Simas Kucinskas ◽  
Carlos Rondón-Moreno
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Kalman Filter ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Time Estimation ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
The World ◽  
Real Time Estimation ◽  
Image Position ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

We develop a new method for estimating the effective reproduction number of an infectious disease (R) and apply it to track the dynamics of COVID-19. The method is based on the fact that in the SIR model, R is linearly related to the growth rate of the number of infected individuals. This time-varying growth rate is estimated using the Kalman filter from data on new cases. The method is easy to implement in standard statistical software, and it performs well even when the number of infected individuals is imperfectly measured, or the infection does not follow the SIR model. Our estimates of R for COVID-19 for 124 countries across the world are provided in an interactive online dashboard, and they are used to assess the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions in a sample of 14 European countries.

scholarly journals Modeling the Effect of Asymptomatic Cases, Social Distancing, and Lockdowns in the First and Second waves of the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Case Study of Italy

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 265-273
Author(s):  
Muhamad Khairulbahri
Keyword(s):  
Full Text ◽  
Behavioral Measures ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The World ◽  
Second Wave

The SEIR model of COVID-19 is developed to investigate the roles of physical distancing, lockdowns, and asymptomatic cases in Italy. In doing so, two types of policies including behavioral measures and lockdown measures are embedded in the model. Compared with existing models, the model successfully reproduces similar multiple observed outputs such as infected and recovered patients in Italy by July 2020. This study concludes that the first policy is important once the number of infected cases is relatively low. However, once the number of infected cases is too high, so the society cannot identify infected and disinfected people, the second policy must be applied soon. It is thus this study suggests that relaxed lockdowns lead to the second wave of the COVID-19 around the world. It is hoped that the model can enhance our understanding of the roles of behavioral measures, lockdowns, and undocumented cases, so-called asymptomatic cases, on the COVID-19 flow. Doi: 10.28991/SciMedJ-2021-0303-8 Full Text: PDF

scholarly journals Modelling the second wave of COVID-19 infections in France and Italy via a Stochastic SEIR model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Davide Faranda ◽  
Tommaso Alberti
Keyword(s):  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Asymptotic Estimates ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Actual Knowledge ◽  
The World ◽  
Log Normal ◽  
Long Term Behavior ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Log Normal Distribution

<p>COVID-19 has forced quarantine measures in several countries across the world. These measures have proven to be effective in significantly reducing the prevalence of the virus. To date, no effective treatment or vaccine is available. In the effort of preserving both public health as well as the economical and social textures, France and Italy governments have partially released lockdown measures. Here we extrapolate the long-term behavior of the epidemics in both countries using a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model where parameters are stochastically perturbed with a log-normal distribution to handle the uncertainty in the estimates of COVID-19 prevalence and to simulate the presence of super-spreaders. Our results suggest that uncertainties in both parameters and initial conditions rapidly propagate in the model and can result in different outcomes of the epidemics leading or not to a second wave of infections. Furthermore, the presence of super-spreaders adds instability to the dynamics, making the control of the epidemics more difficult. Using actual knowledge, asymptotic estimates of COVID-19 prevalence can fluctuate of order of ten millions units in both countries.</p>

Two Years after the Crisis: Do Risks of the Second Wave Become Stronger?

2011 ◽  
pp. 4-20
Author(s):  
M. Ershov
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
World Economy ◽  
External Shocks ◽  
Global Imbalances ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
The World ◽  
The Future ◽  
Second Wave

With signs of normalization seemingly in place in the world economy, a number of problems show the possibility of aggravation in the future. The volume of derivatives in American banks grows significantly, high risk instruments are back in place and their use becomes more active, global imbalances increase. All of the above requires thorough approaches when creating mechanisms which can neutralize external shocks for the Russian economy and make it possible to develop in the new post-crisis environment.

The Process of Globalization and Its Impact on Media

2016 ◽  
Vol 1 (4) ◽  
pp. 150
Author(s):  
Veton Zejnullahi
Keyword(s):  
New Technology ◽  
World Order ◽  
Modern Society ◽  
Media Access ◽  
Four Corners ◽  
The World ◽  
The Media ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Human Eyes ◽  
The Impact

The process of globalization, which many times is considered as new world order is affecting all spheres of modern society but also the media. In this paper specifically we will see the impact of globalization because we see changing the media access to global problems in general being listed on these processes. We will see that the greatest difficulties will have small media as such because the process is moving in the direction of creating mega media which thanks to new technology are reaching to deliver news and information at the time of their occurrence through choked the small media. So it is fair to conclude that the rapid economic development and especially the technology have made the world seem "too small" to the human eyes, because for real-time we will communicate with the world with the only one Internet connection, and also all the information are take for the development of events in the four corners of the world and direct from the places when the events happen. Even Albanian space has not left out of this process because the media in the Republic of Albania and the Republic of Kosovo are adapted to the new conditions under the influence of the globalization process. This fact is proven powerful through creating new television packages, written the websites and newspapers in their possession.

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