scholarly journals Evaluation of national responses to COVID-19 pandemic based on Pareto optimality

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marek Kochańczyk ◽  
Tomasz Lipniacki
Keyword(s):  
Pareto Optimality ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
High Mobility ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Economic Downturn ◽  
South American ◽  
Death Toll ◽  
High Death ◽  
Socio Economic Impact ◽  
Mobility Reduction

AbstractCountries worldwide have adopted various strategies to minimize the socio-economic impact of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Stringency and efficacy of imposed measures vary due to diversity of organizational cultures and ingrained societal practices, but also universally reflect the standpoint from which protecting public health and saving economy are seen as contradictory objectives. We analyzed cumulative deaths per capita and cumulative mobility reduction related to the decrease of economic activity in terms of Pareto optimality to show that as long as epidemic suppression is the aim, the trade-off between the death toll and economic loss is illusory: high death toll correlates with deep lockdown and thus, very likely, with severe economic downturn. We explained this effect by analyzing national epidemic trajectories in the mobility reduction vs. reproduction number (R) plane. When the number of daily new infections is high, mobility reduction is the only way to bring R below 1, but when new infections become sporadic, the epidemic can be suppressed by efficient testing complemented by relatively mild restrictions. South American trajectories suggest that lifting mobility restrictions at R > 1 may ultimately lead to the “herd immunity scenario”, in which transient lockdown only adds economic costs to an inevitably high death toll.

scholarly journals Pareto-based evaluation of national responses to COVID-19 pandemic shows that saving lives and protecting economy are non-trade-off objectives

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marek Kochańczyk ◽  
Tomasz Lipniacki
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Economic Downturn ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Trade Off ◽  
Death Toll ◽  
High Death ◽  
Socio Economic Impact ◽  
Mobility Reduction

AbstractCountries worldwide have adopted various strategies to minimize the socio-economic impact of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Stringency of imposed measures universally reflects the standpoint from which protecting public health and avoiding damage to economy are seen as contradictory objectives. Based on epidemic trajectories of 25 highly developed countries and 10 US states in the (mobility reduction)–(reproduction number) plane we showed that delay in imposition of nation-wide quarantine elevates the number of infections and deaths, surge of which inevitably has to be suppressed by stringent and sustained lockdown. As a consequence, cumulative mobility reduction and population-normalized cumulative number of COVID-19-associated deaths are significantly correlated and this correlation increases with time. Overall, we demonstrated that, as long as epidemic suppression is the aim, the trade-off between the death toll and economic loss is illusory: high death toll correlates with deep and long-lasting lockdown causing a severe economic downturn.

scholarly journals Characteristic and Introspection of Road Traffic Injuries in China from 2012 to 2017

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huiting Yu ◽  
Chan Nie ◽  
Yanna Zhou ◽  
Xue Wang ◽  
Haiyan Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Linear Correlation ◽  
Road Traffic ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
The West ◽  
Road Traffic Injuries ◽  
Death Toll ◽  
High Death ◽  
The Government

Background: To analyze whether the area differences of RTIs (road traffic injuries, RTIs) caused by unequal development in China, provide suggestions for the prevention of the RTIs. Methods: The data of RTIs in China was collected from the authoritative official website and yearbook of China. Results: Total RTIs in the East was the highest (RTIs frequency: 591789; injured people: 600611; death toll: 168885; economic loss: 27.22 billion RMB), followed by the Center (RTIs frequency: 321807; injured people: 352769; death toll: 91966; economic loss: 23.90 billion RMB) and the lowest in the West (RTIs frequency: 289482; injured people: 332517; death toll: 101095; economic loss: 16.35 billion RMB). The multivariate linear correlation and regression showed that the characteristic of RTIs was highly related with GDP (r=0.99, P < 0.001). Conclusion: The economically developed areas had a large amount of traffic damages. The government should focus on preventing high RTIs in the East and high death tolls in the West.

scholarly journals Disparities in the Evolution of the COVID-19 Pandemic between Spanish Provinces

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (10) ◽  
pp. 5085
Author(s):  
Héctor López-Mendoza ◽  
Antonio Montañés ◽  
Franciso Javier Moliner-Lahoz
Keyword(s):  
High Mobility ◽  
South American ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Ordered Logit Model ◽  
Convergence Clubs ◽  
Single Pattern ◽  
Divergent Behavior ◽  
Regional Authorities ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Industrial Economic

Spain experienced a second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in autumn 2020, which has been approached with different measures by regional authorities. We analyze the presence of convergence in the cumulative incidence for 14 days (CI14) in provinces and self-governing cities. The Phillips–Sul methodology was used to study the grouping of behavior between provinces, and an ordered logit model was estimated to understand the forces that drive creating the different convergence clubs. We reject the presence of a single pattern of behavior in the evolution of the CI14 across territories. Four statistically different convergence clubs and an additional province (Madrid) with divergent behavior are observed. Provinces with developed agricultural and industrial economic sectors, high mobility, and a high proportion of Central and South American immigrants had the highest level of CI14. We show that the transmission of the virus is not homogeneous in the Spanish national territory. Our results are helpful for identifying differences in determinants that could explain the pandemic’s evolution and for formulating hypotheses about the effectiveness of implemented measures.

The Bradford Fire Disaster

1989 ◽  
Vol 29 (4) ◽  
pp. 284-286
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Monoxide ◽  
Future Planning ◽  
Death Toll ◽  
Planning And Management ◽  
Fire Disaster ◽  
Sports Stadiums ◽  
The Future ◽  
High Death ◽  
Football Stadium

The circumstances of the Bradford Football Stadium Fire have been described in Part 1. Part 2 relates the positions in which the bodies were found, their carbon monoxide concentrations, and the physical configuration of the stand to the seat of the fire. It also examines the causes of the high death toll and makes recommendations for the future planning and management of sports stadiums.

scholarly journals Advice from a systems-biology model of the Corona epidemics

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hans V. Westerhoff ◽  
Alexey N. Kolodkin
Keyword(s):  
Systems Biology ◽  
Dynamic Model ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Adaptive Strategy ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Death Toll ◽  
Maximum Duration ◽  
Corona Virus ◽  
Eradication Strategy

Abstract Using standard systems biology methodologies a 14-compartment dynamic model was developed for the Corona virus epidemic. The model predicts that: (i) it will be impossible to limit lockdown intensity such that sufficient herd immunity develops for this epidemic to die down, (ii) the death toll from the SARS-CoV-2 virus decreases very strongly with increasing intensity of the lockdown, but (iii) the duration of the epidemic increases at first with that intensity and then decreases again, such that (iv) it may be best to begin with selecting a lockdown intensity beyond the intensity that leads to the maximum duration, (v) an intermittent lockdown strategy should also work and might be more acceptable socially and economically, (vi) an initially intensive but adaptive lockdown strategy should be most efficient, both in terms of its low number of casualties and shorter duration, (vii) such an adaptive lockdown strategy offers the advantage of being robust to unexpected imports of the virus, e.g. due to international travel, (viii) the eradication strategy may still be superior as it leads to even fewer deaths and a shorter period of economic, but should have the adaptive strategy as backup in case of unexpected infection imports (ix) earlier detection of infections is the most effective way in which the epidemic can be controlled, whilst waiting for vaccines.

scholarly journals The Rights of Elders in Ireland during COVID-19

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-21
Author(s):  
Katharina Ó Cathaoir ◽  
Ida Gundersby Rognlien
Keyword(s):  
Nursing Homes ◽  
Healthcare System ◽  
Family Life ◽  
Social Contact ◽  
Death Toll ◽  
Home Help ◽  
High Death ◽  
Areas Of Concern ◽  
The Law ◽  
The Right

Abstract This article reflects on COVID-19 restrictions imposed on elders in Ireland through the lens of the right to private and family life (Article 8 ECHR), focusing on stay at home orders and recommendations advising elders to avoid social contact. Furthermore, we examine restrictions on visiting nursing homes given the high death toll in that setting. In our analysis, we zero in on the principles of foreseeability and proportionality, highlighting areas of concern and aspects that we submit should be considered in a proportionality assessment. Ultimately, we argue that it is a mistake to view the COVID-19 pandemic solely as an emergency. In this manner, the solutions suggested through the law – restrictions on movement and visitation bans – are too narrow and fail to address the underlying structures, such as, issues in the healthcare system, the limited home help for elderly and poor conditions in nursing homes.

COVID-19 Vaccine Perception in South Korea: A Web-Crawling Approach (Preprint)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hocheol Lee ◽  
Eun Bi Noh ◽  
Sung Jong Park ◽  
Hae-Kweun Nam ◽  
Tae Ho Lee ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Information Needs ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Cross Sectional Study ◽  
Vaccination Rate ◽  
World Health ◽  
Accurate Information ◽  
Web Crawling ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Negative Perception

BACKGROUND The US Center for Disease Control and Prevention and the World Health Organization emphasized vaccination against the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) because physical distancing proved inadequate to mitigate death, illness, and massive economic loss. OBJECTIVE The purpose of this study was to investigate Korean citizens’ perceptions of vaccines by examining their views on COVID-19, their positive and negative perceptions of each vaccine, and ways to enhance policies to increase vaccine acceptance. METHODS This cross-sectional study analyzed posts on NAVER and Instagram to examine Korean citizens’ acceptance of COVID-19 vaccines. The keywords searched were “vaccine,” “AstraZeneca,” and “Pfizer.” In total 8,100 posts in NAVER and 5,291 posts in Instagram were sampled through web crawling. Morphology analysis was performed, overlapping or meaningless words were removed, sentiment analysis was implemented, and three public health professionals reviewed the results. RESULTS The findings revealed a negative perception of COVID-19 vaccines; of the words crawled, the proportion of negative words for AstraZeneca was 71.0% and for Pfizer was 56.3%. Moreover, 70.5% considered Pfizer safe, while 30.4% thought AstraZeneca safe. Among words crawled with “vaccine,” “good” ranked first, with a frequency of 312 (13.4%). Meanwhile, “side effect” ranked highest, with a frequency of 163 (18.4%) for “AstraZeneca,” but 0.6%. for “Pfizer.” With “vaccine,” positive words were more frequently used, whereas with “AstraZeneca” and “Pfizer” negative words were prevalent. CONCLUSIONS There is a negative perception of AstraZeneca and Pfizer vaccines in Korea, with one in four people refusing vaccination. To address this, accurate information needs to be shared about vaccines including AstraZeneca, and the experiences of those vaccinated. Furthermore, government communication about risk management is required to increase the AstraZeneca vaccination rate for herd immunity before the vaccine expires.

scholarly journals Advice from a systems-biology model of the Corona epidemics

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hans V. Westerhoff ◽  
Alexey N. Kolodkin
Keyword(s):  
Systems Biology ◽  
Dynamic Model ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Adaptive Strategy ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Death Toll ◽  
Maximum Duration ◽  
Corona Virus ◽  
Eradication Strategy ◽  
Unexpected Inflation

AbstractUsing standard systems biology methodologies a 14-compartment dynamic model was developed for the Corona virus epidemic. The model predicts that : (i) it will be impossible to limit lockdown intensity such that sufficient herd immunity develops for this epidemic to die down, (ii) the death toll from the SARS-CoV-2 virus decreases very strongly with increasing intensity of the lockdown, but (iii) the duration of the epidemic increases at first with that intensity and then decreases again, such that (iv) it may be best to begin with selecting a lockdown intensity beyond the intensity that leads to the maximum duration, (v) an intermittent lock down strategy should also work and be more acceptable socially and economically, (vi) an initially intensive but adaptive lockdown strategy should be most efficient, both in terms of its low number casualties and shorter duration, (vii) such an adaptive lockdown strategy offers the advantage of being robust to unexpected imports of the virus, e.g. due to international travel, (viii) the eradication strategy may still be superior as it leads to even fewer deaths and a shorter period of economic lockdown maximum, but should have the adaptive strategy as backup in case of unexpected inflation imports (ix) earlier detection of infections is perhaps the most effective way in which the epidemic can be controlled more readily, whilst waiting for vaccines.

scholarly journals Short report: Introduction of chikungunya virus ECSA genotype into the Brazilian Midwest and its dispersion through the Americas

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. e0009290
Author(s):  
Elaine Cristina de Oliveira ◽  
Vagner Fonseca ◽  
Joilson Xavier ◽  
Talita Adelino ◽  
Ingra Morales Claro ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Chikungunya Virus ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Virus Transmission ◽  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
Short Report ◽  
South American ◽  
Mato Grosso ◽  
Gradual Accumulation ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Since introduction into Brazil in 2014, chikungunya virus (CHIKV) has presented sustained transmission, although much is unknown about its circulation in the midwestern states. Here, we analyze 24 novel partial and near complete CHIKV genomes from Cuiaba, an urban metropolis located in the Brazilian midwestern state of Mato Grosso (MT). Nanopore technology was used for sequencing CHIKV complete genomes. Phylogenetic and epidemiological approaches were used to explore the recent spatio-temporal evolution and spread of the CHIKV-ECSA genotype in Midwest Brazil as well as in the Americas. Epidemiological data revealed a reduction in the number of reported cases over 2018–2020, likely as a consequence of a gradual accumulation of herd-immunity. Phylogeographic reconstructions revealed that at least two independent introductions of the ECSA lineage occurred in MT from a dispersion event originating in the northeastern region and suggest that the midwestern Brazilian region appears to have acted as a source of virus transmission towards Paraguay, a bordering South American country. Our results show a complex dynamic of transmission between epidemic seasons and suggest a possible role of Brazil as a source for international dispersion of the CHIKV-ECSA genotype to other countries in the Americas.

scholarly journals Anatomy of a Regional Civil War: Guangxi, China, 1967–1968

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-29
Author(s):  
Andrew G. Walder
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Rural Communities ◽  
Cultural Revolution ◽  
Collective Behavior ◽  
Early Years ◽  
Death Toll ◽  
Large Numbers ◽  
High Death ◽  
Extreme Violence

Abstract During the violent early years of China’s Cultural Revolution, the province of Guangxi experienced by far the largest death toll of any comparable region. One explanation for the extreme violence emphasizes a process of collective killings focused on households in rural communities that were long categorized as class enemies by the regime. From this perspective, the high death tolls were generated by a form of collective behavior reminiscent of genocidal intergroup violence in Bosnia, Rwanda, and similar settings. Evidence from investigations conducted in China in the 1980s reveals the extent to which the killings were part of a province-wide suppression of rebel insurgents, carried out by village militia, who also targeted large numbers of noncombatants. Guangxi’s death tolls were the product of a counterinsurgency campaign that more closely resembled the massacres of communists and suspected sympathizers coordinated by Indonesia’s army in wake of the coup that deposed Sukarno in 1965.

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