scholarly journals Importation of SARS-CoV-2 following the "semaine de relâche" and Québec's (Canada) COVID-19 burden - a mathematical modeling study

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arnaud Godin ◽  
Yiqing Xia ◽  
David L Buckeridge ◽  
Sharmistha Mishra ◽  
Dirk Douwes-Schultz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Mathematical Modeling ◽  
Compartmental Model ◽  
Credible Interval ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Imported Cases ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Very High

Background: The Canadian epidemics of COVID-19 exhibit distinct early trajectories, with Québec bearing a very high initial burden. The semaine de relâche, or March break, took place two weeks earlier in Québec as compared to the rest of Canada. This event may have played a role in the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). We aimed to examine the role of case importation in the early transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in Québec. Methods: Using detailed surveillance data, we developed and calibrated a deterministic SEIR-type compartmental model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. We explored the impact of altering the number of imported cases on hospitalizations. Specifically, we investigated scenarios without case importation after March break, and as scenarios where cases were imported with the same frequency/timing as neighboring Ontario. Results: A total of 1,544 and 1,150 returning travelers were laboratory-confirmed in Québec and Ontario, respectively (with symptoms onset before 2020-03-25). The cumulative number of hospitalizations could have been reduced by 55% (95% credible interval [95%CrI]: 51-59%) had no cases been imported after Québec's March break. However, had Québec experienced Ontario's number of imported cases, cumulative hospitalizations would have only been reduced by 12% (95%CrI: 8-16%). Interpretation: Our results suggest that case importation played an important role in the early spread of COVID-19 in Québec. Yet, heavy importation of SARS-CoV-2 in early March could be insufficient to resolve interprovincial heterogeneities in cumulative hospitalizations. The importance of other factors -public health preparedness, responses, and capacity- should be investigated.

scholarly journals Accounting for imported cases in estimating the time-varying reproductive number of COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tim K. Tsang ◽  
Peng Wu ◽  
Eric H. Y. Lau ◽  
Benjamin J. Cowling
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Considerable Proportion ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Imported Cases ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Local Transmission

ABSTRACTBackgroundEstimating the time-varying reproductive number, Rt, is critical for monitoring transmissibility of an emerging infectious disease during outbreaks. When local transmission is effectively suppressed, imported cases could substantially impact transmission dynamics.MethodsWe developed methodology to estimate separately the Rt for local cases and imported cases, since certain public health measures aim only to reduce onwards transmission from imported cases. We applied the framework to data on COVID-19 outbreaks in Hong Kong.ResultsWe estimated that the Rt for local cases decreased from above one in the early phase of outbreak to below one after tightening of public health measures. Assuming the same infectiousness of local and imported cases underestimated Rt for local cases due to control measures targeting travelers.ConclusionsWhen a considerable proportion of all cases are imported, the impact of imported cases in estimating Rt is critical. The methodology described here can allow for differential infectiousness of local imported cases.

scholarly journals 26.A. Workshop: Assessing the role of policies and actions to address childhood obesity

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Childhood Obesity ◽  
Stakeholder Engagement ◽  
Special Focus ◽  
Policy Options ◽  
Sustainable Solutions ◽  
Relevant Evidence ◽  
Multi Stakeholder ◽  
The Impact

Abstract   Childhood obesity has grown to become one of the most dramatic features of the global obesity epidemic, with long-term consequences. The spread of obesity has been fueled by changes in social norms and living environments that have shaped individual behaviours making them conducive to excessive and imbalanced nutrition, sedentary lifestyles, and ultimately obesity and associated diseases. The STOP project will aim to generate scientifically sound, novel and policy-relevant evidence on the factors that have contributed to the spread of childhood obesity in European countries and on the effects of alternative technological and organisational solutions and policy options available to address the problem. STOP will translate the evidence gathered and generated into indicators and measurements, policy briefs and toolkits and multi-stakeholder frameworks. A special focus of STOP is understanding the stakeholders' networks and drivers of stakeholders' action. STOP will establish new ways for policy-relevant evidence to be generated, made available and used in the design and implementation of effective and sustainable solutions for childhood obesity at the EU, national and local levels. Each of the policy work packages will: Produce evidence syntheses and impact simulations for different policy approaches;Assess selected policy approaches and actions in children cohorts and other relevant settings;Devise policy toolkits and policy guidance to support the adoption and implementation of specific actions by relevant actors;Establish a country-based European accountability and monitoring framework in each policy area. The workshop aims to: Showcase the impact of different policy options evaluated throughout the STOP project;Increase participants' understanding and awareness of the opportunities and challenges associated with the implementation of selected policies;Increase awareness of public health professionals of the importance of overcoming siloes in identifying and implementing public health policies;Increase the understanding of multi-stakeholder engagement. The discussion will explore the role of stakeholders across different policy areas. We will explore the different definitions of “stakeholders” and “multi-stakeholders” engagement. This will also be an opportunity to explore some of the benefits, risks and challenges around stakeholder engagement, and explore what are the different types of stakeholders involved in these policies as well as their roles. The workshop will offer an opportunity to: Inform participants about existing physical activity, regulatory and fiscal policies to address childhood obesity;Inform participants about new, innovative EU-level projects that aim to address childhood obesity;Outline preliminary findings of the STOP project with regards to the effectiveness of the evaluated policies;Identify some of the gaps and limitations of existing policies and discuss some of the steps to ensure successful policy implementation. Key messages Present new evidence on what policy approaches work in addressing key determinants of childhood obesity. Showcase findings on the attitudes of different stakeholders towards obesity policies, and debate the benefits, risks and challenges of multi-stakeholder engagement.

scholarly journals Television and Fertility

2010 ◽  
pp. 67-82 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stuart Basten
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Mass Media ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Media Presentation ◽  
Sliding Scale ◽  
The Media ◽  
Television Plays ◽  
The Impact

Much research has been conducted in the field of utilising the media - television and radio in particular - to promote particular public health messages. However, a burgeoning canon has examined how mass media can play a role in affecting change in fertility preferences and outcomes. In this paper we review these researches which have primarily focussed upon higher fertility settings. The impact of mass media presentation of families and children in low fertility settings has not yet been subject to rigorous sociological investigation so its impact can not be accurately inferred. However, given the pervasive nature of mass media and celebrity culture, we suggest that this is an important avenue for future research. We conclude that television plays a multi-faceted role in shaping individuals decision-making procedures concerning both demographic events and public health interactions. To illustrate this, we present a model which demonstrates a sliding scale of intent - but not impact - of various genres in order to understand the actual role of the media in shaping attitudes towards family size - either explicitly in terms of edutainment or implicitly as a forms of normalization.

scholarly journals COVID-19 as an “Infodemic” in Public Health: Critical Role of the Social Media

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Debanjan Banerjee ◽  
K. S. Meena
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Social Media ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Global Public Health ◽  
Sources Of Information ◽  
Multiple Sources ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
Digital Platforms ◽  
The Impact

The Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has emerged as a significant and global public health crisis. Besides the rising number of cases and fatalities, the outbreak has also affected economies, employment and policies alike. As billions are being isolated at their homes to contain the infection, the uncertainty gives rise to mass hysteria and panic. Amidst this, there has been a hidden epidemic of “information” that makes COVID-19 stand out as a “digital infodemic” from the earlier outbreaks. Repeated and detailed content about the virus, geographical statistics, and multiple sources of information can all lead to chronic stress and confusion at times of crisis. Added to this is the plethora of misinformation, rumor and conspiracy theories circulating every day. With increased digitalization, media penetration has increased with a more significant number of people aiding in the “information pollution.” In this article, we glance at the unique evolution of COVID-19 as an “infodemic” in the hands of social media and the impact it had on its spread and public reaction. We then look at the ways forward in which the role of social media (as well as other digital platforms) can be integrated into social and public health, for a better symbiosis, “digital balance” and pandemic preparedness for the ongoing crisis and the future.

scholarly journals TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS OF DENGUE IN COSTA RICA: THE ROLE OF HOSPITALIZATIONS

2019 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 241-266
Author(s):  
FABIO SANCHEZ ◽  
JORGE ARROYO-ESQUIVEL ◽  
PAOLA VÁSQUEZ
Keyword(s):  
Costa Rica ◽  
Compartmental Model ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Basic Reproductive Number ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Specific Parameter ◽  
Public Health Officials ◽  
Disease Free

For decades, dengue virus has caused major problems for public health officials in tropical and subtropical countries around the world. We construct a compartmental model that includes the role of hospitalized individuals in the transmission dynamics of dengue in Costa Rica. The basic reproductive number, R0, is computed, as well as a sensitivity analysis on R0 parameters. The global stability of the disease-free equilibrium is established. Numerical simulations under specific parameter scenarios are performed to determine optimal prevention/control strategies.

Exploring the Role of Enforcement in Promoting Adherence with Protective Behaviours During COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Freya Mills ◽  
Charles Symons ◽  
Holly Carter
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health Behaviours ◽  
Narrative Review ◽  
Public Health Emergencies ◽  
Search Terms ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Practical Implications ◽  
Specific Barriers ◽  
Protective Behaviours

Purpose: To explore the conditions under which enforcement likely is, or is not, an effective strategy to increase adherence to recommended protective behaviours during COVID-19. Design/Methodology/Approach: Relevant search terms were entered into three key databases (Google Scholar, medXriv, psyArXiv) to identify both peer-reviewed and pre-publication articles that reported empirical data relating to the impact of enforcement on adherence with recommended public health behaviours. Findings: Enforcement is less effective when: it is applied inconsistently; rules are ambiguous; behaviours are unobservable. Providing food and financial support, creating social norms and increasing trust are more effective in addressing specific barriers and fostering voluntary adherence. Where enforcement forms part of the strategy for policing COVID-19 regulations, rules must be clear and local responders must be given time and opportunity to plan their response as new rules are implemented. Research limitations/implications: This narrative review was limited to papers published in English and available either via the databases searched, or via reference searching; some relevant studies may therefore not have been identified. Practical implications: Findings inform an understanding of the impact of enforcement on adherence and facilitate the development of recommendations for increasing adherence to protective behaviours during COVID-19. Given the importance of public adherence, these recommendations are not only useful in the context of COVID-19 but also for future public health emergencies. Originality/value: This narrative review is the first to explore the circumstances under which enforcement can increase or reduce adherence with COVID-19 guidelines, generating recommendations for improved public adherence.

s.Two Implementation and Accountability, 8 Justiciability of Human Rights for Health

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Flood Colleen M ◽  
Thomas Bryan
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Human Rights ◽  
Right To Health ◽  
Health And Human Rights ◽  
Proper Role ◽  
Health Related ◽  
State Obligations ◽  
The Right ◽  
The Impact

This chapter examines both the power and limitations of litigation as a means of facilitating accountability for the advancement of public health. While almost half of the world’s constitutions now contain a justiciable right to health, the impact of litigation has been mixed. Judicial accountability has, in some cases, advanced state obligations to realize the highest attainable standard of health, but in other cases, litigation has threatened the solidarity undergirding public health systems. There is significant country-to-country variation in interpreting health-related human rights, as well as differing views of the proper role of courts in interpreting and enforcing these rights. Surveying regional human rights systems and national judicial efforts to address health and human rights, it is necessary to analyze how courts have approached—and how they should approach—litigation of the right to health and health-related human rights to improve health for all.

Regulation

2020 ◽  
pp. 372-381
Author(s):  
Lawrence Gostin
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
International Law ◽  
Legal Change ◽  
The Face ◽  
Public Health Officials ◽  
The Law ◽  
The Impact

The objectives of this chapter are to help you understand: the impact of legislation, regulations, and litigation on the public’s health; the powers, duties, and restraints imposed by the law on public health officials; the potential of legal change to improve the public’s health; the role of international law and institutions in securing public health in the face of increasing globalization.

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