scholarly journals Obtaining prevalence estimates of COVID-19: A model to inform decision-making

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ida Sahlu ◽  
Alexander B Whittaker
Keyword(s):  
Random Sampling ◽  
Geographic Area ◽  
Misclassification Error ◽  
Point Estimate ◽  
Prevalence Estimates ◽  
Error Bias ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Number Of Individuals ◽  
Case Data ◽  
Random Sampling Approach

Objectives: The primary aim was to evaluate whether randomly sampling and testing a set number of individuals for active or past COVID-19 while adjusting for misclassification error captures a simulated prevalence. The secondary aim was to quantify the impact of misclassification error bias on publicly reported case data in Maryland. Methods: Using a stratified random sampling approach, 50,000 individuals were selected from a simulated Maryland population to estimate the prevalence of active and past COVID-19. Data from the 2014-2018 and 2018 American Community Surveys were used. The simulated prevalence was 0.5% and 1.0% for active and past COVID-19, respectively. Bayesian models, informed by published validity estimates, were used to account for misclassification error when estimating the prevalence of active and past COVID-19. Results: Failure to account for misclassification error overestimated the simulated prevalence for active and past COVID-19. Adjustment for misclassification error decreased the point estimate for active and past COVID-19 prevalence by 55% and 29%, respectively. Adjustment for sampling method and misclassification error only captured the simulated past COVID-19 prevalence. The simulated active COVID-19 prevalence was only captured when set to 0.7% and above. Adjustment for misclassification error for publicly reported Maryland data increased the estimated average daily cases by 8%. Conclusions: Random sampling and testing of COVID-19 is needed but must be accompanied by adjustment for misclassification error to avoid over- or underestimating the prevalence. This approach bolsters disease control efforts. Implementing random testing for active COVID-19 may be best in a smaller geographic area with highly prevalent cases.

scholarly journals MAHASISWA BEKERJA DAN DAMPAKNYA PADA AKTIVITAS BELAJAR DAN PRESTASI AKADEMIK

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 201 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elma Mardelina ◽  
Ali Muhson
Keyword(s):  
Random Sampling ◽  
Learning Activities ◽  
State University ◽  
Academic Achievements ◽  
Working Students ◽  
Part Time ◽  
Working Student ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Random Sampling Approach ◽  
Sampling Approach

Abstrak: Mahasiswa Bekerja dan Dampaknya Terhadap Aktivitas Belajar dan Prestasi Akademik. Penelitian bertujuan mengetahui dampak kerja part-time terhadap aktivitas belajar dan prestasi akademik mahasiswa. Populasi penelitian adalah mahasiswa S1 angkatan 2013 Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Negeri Yogyakarta. Penelitian ini mengambil sampel sebanyak 205 responden dengan teknik propotional random sampling. Teknik pengumpulan data menggunakan kuesioner dan dokumentasi. Analisis data menggunakan metode MANOVA. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa kerja part-time memiliki pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap aktivitas belajar dan prestasi akademik. Mahasiswa yang bekerja part-time cenderung memiliki waktu yang lebih sedikit dalam aktivitas belajar dibandingkan dengan mahasiswa yang tidak bekerja. Prestasi akademik mahasiswa yang bekerja part-time juga cenderung lebih rendah dibandingkan dengan mahasiswa yang tidak bekerja. Kata Kunci : Prestasi Akademik, Aktivitas Belajar, Mahasiswa Bekerja Abstract: Working Student and Its Impact on Learning Activities and Academic Achievements. This study is aimed to find out the impact of part-time jobs to the learning activities and academic achievements. The population of this study is students Faculty of Economics year 2013, Yogyakarta State University. The 205 samples selected using proportional random sampling approach. Questionnaire and documentation are used to collect data. This research uses MANOVA to analyze the data. The results show that there is a significant effect of part-time jobs on the learning activities and academic achievements. The working students have a lower time for learning than the non-working students. The working students’ academic achievement is lower than the non-working students. Keywords: Academic Achievements, Learning Activities, Working Student.

scholarly journals Evaluating the Use of 90-90-90 for HIV Policy in the Asian Context

2021 ◽  
pp. 43-48
Author(s):  
Richard M. Grimes ◽  
Deanna E. Grimes
Keyword(s):  
Viral Suppression ◽  
Point Prevalence ◽  
Point Estimate ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
True Prevalence ◽  
Point Estimates ◽  
Prevalence Estimates ◽  
Asian Context ◽  
Low Prevalence ◽  
The Impact

UNAIDS recommends the 90-90-90 policy for controlling HIV infection (identify 90% of HIV cases, provide care for 90% of these, and have 90% of the treated achieve viral suppression). 90-90-90 requires an accurate measurement of HIV prevalence, which is impossible to achieve. Prevalence must be estimated. Customarily, 90-90-90 prevalence estimates are based on point estimates at the midpoint of a credible range of high and low estimates. This paper examines the effect of the high and low estimates on 90-90-90. We examined the impact on policy goal based on 90% of the point estimate, if the true prevalence were the credible range’s high or low estimate. This was calculated for 14 Asian Countries (Afghanistan, Cambodia, Indonesia, Iran, Kazakhstan, Laos Malaysia, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Philippines Thailand, Uzbekistan, Viet Nam) that UNAIDS estimated point prevalence of prevalence greater than 10,000 persons. If the low estimate for the 14 countries was the true prevalence, 11 of the countries could not achieve 90% of the point estimate because the low prevalence was less than 90% of the point estimate. The other three countries, would have to identify 97.5% to 99.0% of infected persons to achieve 90% of the point prevalence. If the true prevalence is the high estimate, twelve of the countries would have identified only 76.8% to 84.9 of the true prevalence. Afghanistan (26.0%) and Iran (40.8%) would have identified far fewer persons than the point estimate goal. Therefore 90-90-90 should be considered to be non-evaluable and should not be used for policy making.

scholarly journals Update and guidance on management of myopia. European Society of Ophthalmology in cooperation with International Myopia Institute

2021 ◽  
pp. 112067212199896
Author(s):  
János Németh ◽  
Beáta Tapasztó ◽  
Wagih A Aclimandos ◽  
Philippe Kestelyn ◽  
Jost B Jonas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
European Society ◽  
High Myopia ◽  
Treatment Options ◽  
Vision Impairment ◽  
Pathological Myopia ◽  
Myopia Progression ◽  
Preventive Actions ◽  
Prevalence Estimates ◽  
Number Of Individuals ◽  
Myopia Control

The prevalence of myopia is increasing extensively worldwide. The number of people with myopia in 2020 is predicted to be 2.6 billion globally, which is expected to rise up to 4.9 billion by 2050, unless preventive actions and interventions are taken. The number of individuals with high myopia is also increasing substantially and pathological myopia is predicted to become the most common cause of irreversible vision impairment and blindness worldwide and also in Europe. These prevalence estimates indicate the importance of reducing the burden of myopia by means of myopia control interventions to prevent myopia onset and to slow down myopia progression. Due to the urgency of the situation, the European Society of Ophthalmology decided to publish this update of the current information and guidance on management of myopia. The pathogenesis and genetics of myopia are also summarized and epidemiology, risk factors, preventive and treatment options are discussed in details.

scholarly journals Using Unstated Cases to Correct for COVID-19 Pandemic Outbreak and Its Impact on Easing the Intervention for Qatar

Biology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 463
Author(s):  
Narjiss Sallahi ◽  
Heesoo Park ◽  
Fedwa El Mellouhi ◽  
Mustapha Rachdi ◽  
Idir Ouassou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Epidemiological Models ◽  
Sir Epidemic Model ◽  
Gulf Region ◽  
Epidemiological Modeling ◽  
Public Health Policies ◽  
Sir Epidemic ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Case Data

Epidemiological Modeling supports the evaluation of various disease management activities. The value of epidemiological models lies in their ability to study various scenarios and to provide governments with a priori knowledge of the consequence of disease incursions and the impact of preventive strategies. A prevalent method of modeling the spread of pandemics is to categorize individuals in the population as belonging to one of several distinct compartments, which represents their health status with regard to the pandemic. In this work, a modified SIR epidemic model is proposed and analyzed with respect to the identification of its parameters and initial values based on stated or recorded case data from public health sources to estimate the unreported cases and the effectiveness of public health policies such as social distancing in slowing the spread of the epidemic. The analysis aims to highlight the importance of unreported cases for correcting the underestimated basic reproduction number. In many epidemic outbreaks, the number of reported infections is likely much lower than the actual number of infections which can be calculated from the model’s parameters derived from reported case data. The analysis is applied to the COVID-19 pandemic for several countries in the Gulf region and Europe.

Distribution System Fault Recovery with Undispatchable Distributed Generations

2014 ◽  
Vol 529 ◽  
pp. 455-459
Author(s):  
Nan Xu ◽  
Shan Shan Li ◽  
Hao Ming Liu
Keyword(s):  
Wind Power ◽  
Distribution System ◽  
Distribution Systems ◽  
Solar Power ◽  
Equivalent Model ◽  
Point Estimate ◽  
Fault Recovery ◽  
Recovery Method ◽  
Multi Objective ◽  
The Impact

Considering the probabilistic of the wind power and the solar power, a fault recovery method for distribution systems with the wind power and the solar power is presented in this paper. For the wind power, a simplified steady-state equivalent model of an asynchronous wind generator is added into the Jacobian matrix to consider the impact of the wind power on systems. For the solar power, its output is considered as an injected power which is related with solar irradiance. Three-point estimate is employed to solve the probabilistic power flow of distribution systems with the wind power and the solar power. The restoration is described as a multi-objective problem with the mean of the system loss and the number of switch operations. Fast elitist non-dominated sorting partheno-genetic algorithm is used to solve this multi-objective problem. IEEE 33-bus system is used as an example and the results show that the models and algorithms in this paper are efficient.

Technological Innovation: An Imperative Tool for Entrepreneurship Development in Nigeria

2013 ◽  
Vol 03 (08) ◽  
pp. 41-47
Author(s):  
OYEWALE I.O ◽  
ADEYEMO S.A ◽  
OGUNLEYE P.O
Keyword(s):  
Technological Innovation ◽  
Random Sampling ◽  
Sampling Technique ◽  
Simple Random Sampling ◽  
Primary Data ◽  
Entrepreneurship Development ◽  
Mature Organizations ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Structured Questionnaire ◽  
Innovation And Entrepreneurship

Sustainable economic development does not occur without entrepreneurship and entrepreneurship is the practice of starting new organizations or revitalizing mature organizations. This study therefore is done to analyse the impact of innovation, technology and on the entrepreneurial development activities in Nigeria. Simple random sampling technique was used to select a total of 12 entrepreneurs from Lagos State that constituted our sample size. The primary data consists of a number of items in well- structured questionnaire that was administered to and completed by the respondents. Regression analysis was used to analyse the data. The results showed that there is significant relationship between technological innovation and entrepreneurship development in Nigeria. It is therefore recommended that government should create a friendly or an enabling environment for entrepreneurship and consumer goods to boost the Nigeria economy.

The Impact of Entrepreneurial Orientation Success Factors To Muslim SME Success

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 2493-2504
Author(s):  
NadratunNafisah Abdul Wahab Et.al
Keyword(s):  
Entrepreneurial Orientation ◽  
Random Sampling ◽  
Success Factors ◽  
Simple Random Sampling ◽  
Theory And Practice ◽  
The Impact

This study presentsa research of the multidimensional entrepreneurial orientation (innovation, risk and proactive) in relation to the Muslim SME success. Thus far, past literatures shown that limited study of Muslim SME success. This study was conducted in the form of survey, with data being gathered from 122 firms (operating above 3 years) selected through simple random sampling from 2286 Muslim SME in Malaysia. The results show that innovation and proactivefactors have relationshipsto SME Muslim success. The results shed new light on the theory and practice. This finding contributes to RBV theory and to the field of Islamic entrepreneurship focusing on Muslim SME success.

scholarly journals Impact of Stakeholders on Implementation of Strategic Plans in Tanzania’s Public Sector

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 294
Author(s):  
Venance Shillingi Salum ◽  
Roselyn. W. Gakure ◽  
Romanus Othiambo
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Random Sampling ◽  
Implementation Process ◽  
Simple Random Sampling ◽  
Significance Level ◽  
Target Populations ◽  
Strategic Plans ◽  
Executive Agencies ◽  
The Impact

The study investigated the impact of stakeholders on implementation of strategic plans in Tanzania’s public sector. Organisations fail not due to bad formulation of strategies, but the execution of strategies is vital to their failure or demise; and hence implementation process remains a challenge towards achieving organisation objectives. The main objective of the study was to investigate the impact of stakeholders on implementation of Strategic Plans in public sector. Seven (7) executive agencies which made 26% of all 27 executive agencies in Tanzania were randomly drawn using simple random sampling. Then, stratified random sampling was used to obtain a sample size of one hundred eighty-eight (188) respondents which was 30% of the target populations (632 employees) in the headquarters of sampled executive agencies. The study found that there was weak positive relationship (R = 0.236) between role of stakeholders and execution of strategic plans; although was statistically significant at alpha = 0.000. Also,  = 0.056 at significance level of 0.05 indicated that, 5.6% of the total variations in implementation of strategic plans is influenced by stakeholders and 94.4% is contributed by other factors which were not considered in this study. The study concluded that stakeholders do influence implementation of strategic plans in public sector. In line with findings, the study recommended that management in public sector should pay more attention on stakeholders if they have to benefit from, otherwise may negatively influence implementation process of strategic plans in public sector.

scholarly journals Customer Satisfaction and Customer Loyalty: Leading Super Markets in Jaffna District, Sri Lanka

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 67
Author(s):  
Kumaradeepan V. ◽  
Pathmini, M G S
Keyword(s):  
Social Sciences ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Customer Satisfaction ◽  
Customer Loyalty ◽  
Random Sampling ◽  
Quantitative Method ◽  
Sampling Technique ◽  
Primary Data ◽  
The Impact

The topic of the research is Customer Satisfaction (CS) and Customer Loyalty (CL); special reference to the leading supermarkets in Jaffna. The objective of the research is to identify the impact of Customer Satisfaction on Customer Loyalty of leading Supermarkets in Jaffna, Sri Lanka. The research is simply deductive approach to find out the impact between Customer satisfaction and Customer loyalty. Quantitative method is available based on primary data. At present there are 08 numbers of supermarkets functioning in Jaffna district and popular three were selected. Random sampling technique is used to collect the data from customers of supermarkets in selected area. The analysis is carried out using a sample of 240 customers in Jaffna and only 218 were taken to analyze. ‘Statistical Package for Social Sciences’ (SPSS) 22.0 version was used in order to analyze the data. Correlation was used to find the connection between Customer Satisfaction and Customer Loyalty. Also Regression analysis is used to predict the value of a variable based on the value of two or more other variables. Also found that about 40 percent connection between Customer Satisfaction and Customer Loyalty and also found around 16% affect by Customer satisfaction to Customer loyalty.

scholarly journals The Impact Of Agricultural Extension Contact On Crop Income In Bangladesh

2013 ◽  
Vol 38 (2) ◽  
pp. 321-334 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abu Zafar Mahmudul Haq
Keyword(s):  
Random Sampling ◽  
Field Survey ◽  
Sampling Technique ◽  
Agricultural Extension ◽  
Farm Income ◽  
Extension Services ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Factors Influencing ◽  
Crop Income ◽  
The Impact

The impact of extension contact on crop income is examined with a view to evaluating the agricultural extension in Bangladesh. The scope of the study was ten villages of Gazipur district. The objectives of the study are to i) determine the factors influencing the benefit of extension services in terms of farm income, ii) determine the factors affecting the extension contact of farmers, and iii) suggest some policy guidelines to improve the extension services in Bangladesh. The sample of the study consists of 1000 farmers. Data came from field survey and multistage random sampling technique was used in order to collect data. The results indicated that the impact of extension contact coefficient on crop income is positive and significant. Evidence shows that the influence of extension contact coefficient is strongly positive and significant in the comparatively nearer villages to upazila headquarters, while this effect is weaker for those villages, which are comparatively away from upazila headquarters. It is found that many farmers did not receive extension contact and the effect of extension contact is weak on crop income compared to other factors such as irrigation and chemical fertilizer. It is assumed that there was enough scope to increase extension contact in the study areas. Some determinants of extension contact were also examined. The study concludes that agricultural extension is necessary to increase among the farmers. Bangladesh J. Agril. Res. 38(2): 321-334, June 2013 DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3329/bjar.v38i2.15893

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