scholarly journals Can age-distribution be an indicator of the goodness of COVID-19 testing?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amirhoshang Hoseinpour Dehkordi ◽  
Reza Nemati ◽  
Pouya Tavousi
Keyword(s):  
Lower Bound ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Testing Strategies ◽  
Reported Data ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Mitigation Policies

AbstractIt has been evident that the faster, more accurate, and more comprehensive testing can help policymakers assess the real impact of COVID-19 and help them with when and how strict the mitigation policies should be. Nevertheless, the exact number of infected ones could not be measured due to the lack of comprehensive testing. In this paper, first of all, we will investigate the relation of transmission of COVID-19 with age by observing timed data in multiple countries. Then, we compare the COVID-19 CFR with the age-demography data. and as a result, we have proposed a method for estimating a lower bound for the number of positive cases by using the reported data on the oldest age group and the regions’ population age-distributions. The proposed estimation method improved the expected similarity between the age-distribution of positive cases and regions’ populations. Thus, using the publicly accessible data for several developed countries, we show how the improvement of testing over the course of several months has made it clear for the community that different age groups are equally prone to becoming COVID positive. The result shows that the age demography of COVID-19 gets similar to the age-demography of the population, together with the reduction of CFR over time. In addition, countries with less CFR have more similar COVID-19’s age-distribution, which is caused by more comprehensive testing, than ones who have higher CFR. This leads us to a better estimation for positive cases in different testing strategies. Having knowledge of this fact helps policymakers enforce more effective policies for controlling the spread of the virus.

scholarly journals A deeper look at COVID-19 CFR: health care impact and roots of discrepancy

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amirhoshang Hoseinpour Dehkordi ◽  
Reza Nemati ◽  
Pouya Tavousi
Keyword(s):  
Intensive Care ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Quantitative Measure ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Population Distributions ◽  
Reported Data ◽  
Care Capacity ◽  
The Impact

AbstractIntensive care capacity and proper testing play a paramount role in the COVID-19 Case Fatality Rate (CFR). Nevertheless, the real impact of such important measures has not been appreciated due to the lack of proper metrics. In this work, we have proposed a method for estimating a lower bound for the number of positive cases by using the reported data on the oldest age group and the regions’ population distributions. The proposed estimation method improved the expected similarity between the age-distribution of positive cases and regions’ population. Further, we have provided a quantitative measure for the impact of intensive care on the critical cases by comparing the CFR among those who did and did not receive intensive care. Our findings showed that the chance of living among non-ICU receivers is less than half of ICU receivers (∼24% vs ∼60%).

scholarly journals A deeper look at COVID-19 CFR: health care impact and roots of discrepancy

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amirhoshang Hoseinpour Dehkordi ◽  
Reza Nemati ◽  
Pouya Tavousi
Keyword(s):  
Intensive Care ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Quantitative Measure ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Population Distributions ◽  
Reported Data ◽  
Care Capacity ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Intensive care capacity and proper testing play a paramount role in the COVID-19 Case Fatality Rate (CFR). Nevertheless, the real impact of such important measures has not been appreciated due to the lack of proper metrics. In this work, we have proposed a method for estimating a lower bound for the number of positive cases by using the reported data on the oldest age group and the regions' population distributions. The proposed estimation method improved the expected similarity between the age-distribution of positive cases and regions' population. Further, we have provided a quantitative measure for the impact of intensive care on the critical cases by comparing the CFR among those who did and did not receive intensive care. Our findings showed that the chance of living among non-ICU receivers is less than half of ICU receivers (~24% vs ~60%).

scholarly journals OP0248 PREMATURE MORTALITY BURDEN FOR SYSTEMIC SCLEROSIS: NATIONWIDE POPULATION-BASED STUDY

2020 ◽  
Vol 79 (Suppl 1) ◽  
pp. 156.1-156
Author(s):  
E. Yen ◽  
D. Singh ◽  
M. Wu ◽  
R. Singh
Keyword(s):  
Rheumatoid Arthritis ◽  
United States ◽  
Disease Burden ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Premature Mortality ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Population Based Study ◽  
Mortality Burden ◽  
Over Time

Background:Premature mortality is an important way to quantify disease burden. Patients with systemic sclerosis (SSc) can die prematurely of disease, however, the premature mortality burden of SSc is unknown. The years of potential life lost (YPLL), in addition to age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) in younger ages, can be used as measures of premature death.Objectives:To evaluate the premature mortality burden of SSc by calculating: 1) the proportions of SSc deaths as compared to deaths from all other causes (non-SSc) by age groups over time, 2) ASMR for SSc relative to non-SSc-ASMR by age groups over time, and 3) the YPLL for SSc relative to other autoimmune diseases.Methods:This is a population-based study using a national mortality database of all United States residents from 1968 through 2015, with SSc recorded as the underlying cause of death in 46,798 deaths. First, we calculated the proportions of deaths for SSc and non-SSc by age groups for each of 48 years and performed joinpoint regression trend analysis1to estimate annual percent change (APC) and average APC (AAPC) in the proportion of deaths by age. Second, we calculated ASMR for SSc and non-SSc causes and ratio of SSc-ASMR to non-SSc-ASMR by age groups for each of 48 years, and performed joinpoint analysis to estimate APC and AAPC for these measures (SSc-ASMR, non-SSc-ASMR, and SSc-ASMR/non-SSc-ASMR ratio) by age. Third, to calculate YPLL, each decedent’s age at death from a specific disease was subtracted from an arbitrary age limit of 75 years for years 2000 to 2015. The years of life lost were then added together to yield the total YPLL for each of 13 preselected autoimmune diseases.Results:23.4% of all SSc deaths as compared to 13.5% of non-SSc deaths occurred at <45 years age in 1968 (p<0.001, Chi-square test). In this age group, the proportion of annual deaths decreased more for SSc than for non-SSc causes: from 23.4% in 1968 to 5.7% in 2015 at an AAPC of -2.2% (95% CI, -2.4% to -2.0%) for SSc, and from 13.5% to 6.9% at an AAPC of -1.5% (95% CI, -1.9% to -1.1%) for non-SSc. Thus, in 2015, the proportion of SSc and non-SSc deaths at <45 year age was no longer significantly different. Consistently, SSc-ASMR decreased from 1.0 (95% CI, 0.8 to 1.2) in 1968 to 0.4 (95% CI, 0.3 to 0.5) per million persons in 2015, a cumulative decrease of 60% at an AAPC of -1.9% (95% CI, -2.5% to -1.2%) in <45 years old. The ratio of SSc-ASMR to non-SSc-ASMR also decreased in this age group (cumulative -20%, AAPC -0.3%). In <45 years old, the YPLL for SSc was 65.2 thousand years as compared to 43.2 thousand years for rheumatoid arthritis, 18.1 thousand years for dermatomyositis,146.8 thousand years for myocarditis, and 241 thousand years for type 1 diabetes.Conclusion:Mortality at younger ages (<45 years) has decreased at a higher pace for SSc than from all other causes in the United States over a 48-year period. However, SSc accounted for more years of potential life lost than rheumatoid arthritis and dermatomyositis combined. These data warrant further studies on SSc disease burden, which can be used to develop and prioritize public health programs, assess performance of changes in treatment, identify high-risk populations, and set research priorities and funding.References:[1]Yen EY….Singh RR. Ann Int Med 2017;167:777-785.Disclosure of Interests:None declared

scholarly journals Estimating effective infection fatality rates during the course of the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Staerk ◽  
Tobias Wistuba ◽  
Andreas Mayr
Keyword(s):  
Age Distribution ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Temporary Increase ◽  
International Studies ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Substantial Fraction ◽  
Second Wave

Abstract Background The infection fatality rate (IFR) of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is one of the most discussed figures in the context of this pandemic. In contrast to the case fatality rate (CFR), the IFR depends on the total number of infected individuals – not just on the number of confirmed cases. In order to estimate the IFR, several seroprevalence studies have been or are currently conducted. Methods Using German COVID-19 surveillance data and age-group specific IFR estimates from multiple international studies, this work investigates time-dependent variations in effective IFR over the course of the pandemic. Three different methods for estimating (effective) IFRs are presented: (a) population-averaged IFRs based on the assumption that the infection risk is independent of age and time, (b) effective IFRs based on the assumption that the age distribution of confirmed cases approximately reflects the age distribution of infected individuals, and (c) effective IFRs accounting for age- and time-dependent dark figures of infections. Results Effective IFRs in Germany are estimated to vary over time, as the age distributions of confirmed cases and estimated infections are changing during the course of the pandemic. In particular during the first and second waves of infections in spring and autumn/winter 2020, there has been a pronounced shift in the age distribution of confirmed cases towards older age groups, resulting in larger effective IFR estimates. The temporary increase in effective IFR during the first wave is estimated to be smaller but still remains when adjusting for age- and time-dependent dark figures. A comparison of effective IFRs with observed CFRs indicates that a substantial fraction of the time-dependent variability in observed mortality can be explained by changes in the age distribution of infections. Furthermore, a vanishing gap between effective IFRs and observed CFRs is apparent after the first infection wave, while an increasing gap can be observed during the second wave. Conclusions The development of estimated effective IFR and observed CFR reflects the changing age distribution of infections over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany. Further research is warranted to obtain timely age-stratified IFR estimates, particularly in light of new variants of the virus.

Prevalence of non-pathogenic types of gastrointestinal protozoa in population in Slovakia and their potential importance in the aspect of public health

2018 ◽  
Vol 63 (4) ◽  
pp. 819-825 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adriána Dudlová ◽  
Pavol Jarčuška ◽  
Silvia Jurišová ◽  
Zuzana Vasilková ◽  
Vladimír Krčméry ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Human Population ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Gastrointestinal Symptoms ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Potential Importance ◽  
Blastocystis Hominis ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Total Prevalence

Abstract The aim of the research was to determine the prevalence of non-pathogenic protozoa circulating in the human population of Slovakia. We particularly focused on the socially deprived areas with poor sanitation conditions, as they are one of the factors affecting the transmission of these infections. Within this study, 2760 people were coprologically screened for the presence of protozoan cysts. The analyzed group comprised 1173 men and 1587 women from different regions of Slovakia. The total prevalence (2.03%) of non-pathogenic protozoa species was determined. The prevalence of Entamoeba coli was 0.80%, the prevalence of Endolimax nana 0.58%, and the prevalence of Blastocystis hominis was 0.65%. The presence of non-pathogenic protozoa was more frequent in women than that in men, in all age groups. The highest incidence of Entamoeba coli was found in children aged one month – seven years (0.79%), the lowest in the age group of 19–88 years (0.66%). Endolimax nana was most frequent in 8–18 year-olds (0.95%), where the statistical significance was found (p<0.05). The prevalence of Blastocystis hominis by the age group ranged from 0.39 to 0.95%. We did not find any statistical significance (p>0.05) for Entamoeba coli, and similarly for Blastocystis hominis associated with the sex and age. Although the circulation of non-pathogenic protozoa in the human population is far from being limited to the developing countries, their occurrence is also frequent in the population of developed countries. Despite their controversial pathogenicity, they should not be neglected, particularly in the patients with gastrointestinal symptoms.

scholarly journals Secular trends in emergency department encounters for concussion at US children's hospitals by age group (2008–2017)

Neurology ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 91 (23 Supplement 1) ◽  
pp. S22.2-S22
Author(s):  
Amy Linabery ◽  
Kara Seaton ◽  
Alicia Zagel ◽  
Alicen Spaulding ◽  
Gretchen Cutler ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Department ◽  
Public Awareness ◽  
Weighted Least Squares ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Secular Trends ◽  
Medical Attention ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Admission Rates ◽  
Pediatric Hospitals ◽  
Over Time

BackgroundIncreased concussion rates in US youth have been documented since 2000. Concomitant rises in healthcare utilization for concussion are likely attributable to public health, media, and legislative initiatives aimed at increasing public awareness of the importance of seeking medical attention after injury. Utilization trends in young children have not been well-documented, however.ObjectiveTo characterize recent secular trends in pediatric emergency department (ED) encounters for concussion by 4-year age group.MethodsUsing Children's Hospital Association's Pediatric Health Information System data, we examined a retrospective cohort of patients aged 2–17 years with an ED encounter for concussion at 22 US pediatric hospitals with continuous data between 2008 and 2017. Average annual change in rates of ED visits for concussion and sports-/recreation-related concussion, imaging, and admissions were estimated via weighted least-squares regression.ResultsED encounters with a primary indication of concussion comprised 0.8% (n = 86,393) of all ED encounters in 2008–2017. Over time, ED concussion visits in 6–17-year-olds increased by 0.5–1.1 per 1,000 ED encounters per year (all Ptrend< 0.0001), while rates among 2-5-year-olds remained stable (Ptrend = 0.72). Rates for sports-/recreation-related concussions increased significantly across all age groups (<0.0001 ≤ Ptrend ≤ 0.01). Absolute number undergoing any imaging increased in all age groups; however, due to increased ED concussion encounters, the rate of imaging decreased overall (−29.7/1,000 ED concussion encounters/year; Ptrend < 0.0001) and across all age groups; the imaging rate decreased less for 2-5-year-olds (−19.6/1,000 encounters/year; Ptrend < 0.0001). Likewise, admission rates declined significantly over time overall (−10.1/1,000 encounters/y; Ptrend = 0.0006) and for all age groups.ConclusionsED concussion encounter rates in US youth aged 6–17 years continue to increase at pediatric hospitals, suggesting awareness efforts have been effective. Conversely, imaging and admission rates have decreased, indicating efforts to curtail unnecessary irradiation and intervention have also been successful. Trends in 2-5-year-olds were somewhat different from older youth and should be explored further.

scholarly journals TIME TRENDS OF HELICOBACTER PYLORI PREVALENCE IN ITAJAÍ - SC: A RETROSPECTIVE STUDY OF 25 YEARS BASED ON ENDOSCOPIC DATABASE

2019 ◽  
Vol 56 (1) ◽  
pp. 10-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fangio FERRARI ◽  
Elisa Cantú Germano DUTRA ◽  
Henrieli Correia ZANARDI ◽  
Bruno Lorenzo SCOLARO ◽  
Odemari Miranda FERRARI
Keyword(s):  
Helicobacter Pylori ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Helicobacter Pylori Infection ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Gradual Reduction ◽  
Urease Test ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
The Mean ◽  
And Gender

ABSTRACT BACKGROUND: The bacterium Helicobacter pylori is strongly associated with the development of gastric adenocarcinoma. Currently, the prevalence in developed countries is 40%, but this value increases considerably in developing countries, which can reach rates bigger than 90%. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to determine the mean and annual prevalence of Helicobacter pylori infection in patients from Itajaí during the period from July 1992 to April 2016, as well as the gender and age groups most affected. METHODS: After consent of the clinical director of the Gastroclinica Itajaí and confidentiality commitment about the research, the database of the Endoscopy Service of the clinic was evaluated. All the patients who underwent their first upper digestive endoscopy with urease test and/or histological analysis were included. The data were submitted to statistical analysis of prevalence by gender, age group and years of study, with subsequent correction through the confidence interval. RESULTS: The mean prevalence of Helicobacter pylori infection thru all years of study was 50.07%. With the calculation of the annual prevalences, it was evident the gradual reduction of infection in the population of Itajaí, that was 81.3% in 1992, declining to 33% in the year of 2016. When classifying the prevalence of infection by gender, it was higher in males (53.59%), and gender distribution by age group showed no statistically significant difference among genders between the ages of 40 and 80 years. In relation to the age group, the highest prevalence was in the group between 40 and 49 years. CONCLUSION: Although this study is retrospective and based on endoscopic database analysis, without access to clinical data of patients such as prior use of proton pump inhibitor and antibiotics to endoscopy, its results are important because they may reflect the current panorama of Helicobacter pylori infection in the city under study, where it has been presenting a gradual reduction of prevalence over the years, with current rates similar to that of developed countries (33%). Future studies are needed to confirm our data.

scholarly journals Contact surveys reveal heterogeneities in age-group contributions to SARS-CoV-2 dynamics in the United States

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Taylor Chin ◽  
Dennis M. Feehan ◽  
Caroline O. Buckee ◽  
Ayesha S. Mahmud
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
The United States ◽  
Contact Rate ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Contact Rates ◽  
Contact Patterns ◽  
Age Structured ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Over Time

SARS-CoV-2 is spread primarily through person-to-person contacts. Quantifying population contact rates is important for understanding the impact of physical distancing policies and for modeling COVID-19, but contact patterns have changed substantially over time due to shifting policies and behaviors. There are surprisingly few empirical estimates of age-structured contact rates in the United States both before and throughout the COVID-19 pandemic that capture these changes. Here, we use data from six waves of the Berkeley Interpersonal Contact Survey (BICS), which collected detailed contact data between March 22, 2020 and February 15, 2021 across six metropolitan designated market areas (DMA) in the United States. Contact rates were low across all six DMAs at the start of the pandemic. We find steady increases in the mean and median number of contacts across these localities over time, as well as a greater proportion of respondents reporting a high number of contacts. We also find that young adults between ages 18 and 34 reported more contacts on average compared to other age groups. The 65 and older age group consistently reported low levels of contact throughout the study period. To understand the impact of these changing contact patterns, we simulate COVID-19 dynamics in each DMA using an age-structured mechanistic model. We compare results from models that use BICS contact rate estimates versus commonly used alternative contact rate sources. We find that simulations parameterized with BICS estimates give insight into time-varying changes in relative incidence by age group that are not captured in the absence of these frequently updated estimates. We also find that simulation results based on BICS estimates closely match observed data on the age distribution of cases, and changes in these distributions over time. Together these findings highlight the role of different age groups in driving and sustaining SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the U.S. We also show the utility of repeated contact surveys in revealing heterogeneities in the epidemiology of COVID-19 across localities in the United States.

scholarly journals The Crime Curve of Turkey: Does crime decrease with age?

2016 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 2750
Author(s):  
Mehmet Akalın
Keyword(s):  
Law Enforcement ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Primary Source ◽  
The West ◽  
Law Enforcement Personnel ◽  
Over Time

Age distribution of crime is one of the few issues in criminology that received sufficient attention in the West. Some scholars argued that this age distribution is adequately invariant over time, place and type of crime; whereas, others admit that this distribution differs over place and type of crime. Although age-crime curve looks similar in many ways, in fact, a slight difference has been recognized in most countries. This age-crime curve may also help out to focus more on the causes of criminality of specific age groups. Establishing this age distribution is also important because it may play a guiding role for law enforcement personnel and in constructing preventive programs. This article is written primarily to find out how age-crime curve looks like in Turkey. In doing this, prison statistics used here as the primary source.

scholarly journals Safety of Family Replacement Donors vs. Voluntary Non-Remunerated Donors in Komfo Anokye Teaching Hospital, Ghana: A Comparative Study

2015 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 11-16
Author(s):  
O Addai-Mensah ◽  
PA Bashiru ◽  
EE Dogbe
Keyword(s):  
Hepatitis B ◽  
Teaching Hospital ◽  
Blood Donors ◽  
Blood Donation ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Rapid Test ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Cross Sectional

Blood safety remains a challenge to many countries in sub-Saharan Africa including Ghana due to poorly planned blood donation exercises in the various communities. Blood and its products usual-ly come from two main sources; voluntary non-remunerated donors (VNRD) and family replace-ment donors (FRD). In Ghana, and in many developing countries, FRDs seem to be the major source of blood supply whilst in developed countries VNRDs are the major source. This study de-termined and compared the prevalence of four transfusion transmissible infections (TTIs); HIV, hepatitis B virus (HBV), hepatitis C virus (HCV), and Treponema palladium (TP) among FRDs and VNRDs at the Komfo Anokye Teaching Hospital to compare the safety of blood from these two groups. This cross-sectional study was undertaken at the transfusion medicine unit (TMU) of the Komfo Anokye Teaching Hospital between March and May 2014. A total of 400 blood donors (200 FRDs and 200 VNRDs) were enrolled in this study after obtaining written informed consent. Blood samples from each of the donors were then tested for HIV, hepatitis B and C, and syphilis using rapid test kits. ABO and Rhesus blood groups were also determined for all the samples. Prev-alence of TTIs was higher among FRDs (23.5%) than in VNRDs (3.5%) with males (47) been more infected than females (7). Age group 21- 30 years was the most infected, followed by age groups 31- 40 years, 11- 20 years, 41- 50 years and 51- 60 years respectively. FRDs among the younger age group, 17- 30 years, were also more infected than their VNRD counterparts. Repeat blood donors among the VNRD group, were found to be safer than their first-time counterparts. Overall, TTIs were significantly higher in the FRD group than in the VNRD group. The prevalence rates of all the infections tested were higher in the FRD group compared to the VNRD group. FRDs were the higher risk population for TTIs in comparison to VNRDs. VNRDs should therefore be encouraged to donate blood regularly.Keywords: Transfusion Transmissible Infections, HBsAg, HCV, HIV, Treponema pallidum

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