scholarly journals The Crime Curve of Turkey: Does crime decrease with age?

2016 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 2750
Author(s):  
Mehmet Akalın
Keyword(s):  
Law Enforcement ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Primary Source ◽  
The West ◽  
Law Enforcement Personnel ◽  
Over Time

Age distribution of crime is one of the few issues in criminology that received sufficient attention in the West. Some scholars argued that this age distribution is adequately invariant over time, place and type of crime; whereas, others admit that this distribution differs over place and type of crime. Although age-crime curve looks similar in many ways, in fact, a slight difference has been recognized in most countries. This age-crime curve may also help out to focus more on the causes of criminality of specific age groups. Establishing this age distribution is also important because it may play a guiding role for law enforcement personnel and in constructing preventive programs. This article is written primarily to find out how age-crime curve looks like in Turkey. In doing this, prison statistics used here as the primary source.

scholarly journals Can age-distribution be an indicator of the goodness of COVID-19 testing?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amirhoshang Hoseinpour Dehkordi ◽  
Reza Nemati ◽  
Pouya Tavousi
Keyword(s):  
Lower Bound ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Testing Strategies ◽  
Reported Data ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Mitigation Policies

AbstractIt has been evident that the faster, more accurate, and more comprehensive testing can help policymakers assess the real impact of COVID-19 and help them with when and how strict the mitigation policies should be. Nevertheless, the exact number of infected ones could not be measured due to the lack of comprehensive testing. In this paper, first of all, we will investigate the relation of transmission of COVID-19 with age by observing timed data in multiple countries. Then, we compare the COVID-19 CFR with the age-demography data. and as a result, we have proposed a method for estimating a lower bound for the number of positive cases by using the reported data on the oldest age group and the regions’ population age-distributions. The proposed estimation method improved the expected similarity between the age-distribution of positive cases and regions’ populations. Thus, using the publicly accessible data for several developed countries, we show how the improvement of testing over the course of several months has made it clear for the community that different age groups are equally prone to becoming COVID positive. The result shows that the age demography of COVID-19 gets similar to the age-demography of the population, together with the reduction of CFR over time. In addition, countries with less CFR have more similar COVID-19’s age-distribution, which is caused by more comprehensive testing, than ones who have higher CFR. This leads us to a better estimation for positive cases in different testing strategies. Having knowledge of this fact helps policymakers enforce more effective policies for controlling the spread of the virus.

scholarly journals Continued Age Shift of Confirmed Positive COVID-19 Incidence Over Time to Children and Young Adults: Washington State March - August 2020

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Judith Malmgren ◽  
Boya Guo ◽  
Henry G. Kaplan
Keyword(s):  
Young Adults ◽  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Washington State ◽  
Older Age ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Lower Priority ◽  
Washington State Department ◽  
Over Time

AbstractBackgroundAs the coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic passed the initial infection peak in Washington State, phased re-opening lifted stay-at-home orders and restrictions leading to increased non-essential work, social activities and gathering, especially among younger persons.MethodsA longitudinal cohort analysis of Washington State Department of Health COVID-19 confirmed case age distribution 1) March-April 2020 (N=13,934) and 2) March-August 2020 (N=76,032) for proportional change over time using chi square tests for significance.ResultsFrom March 1st to April 19, 2020 COVID-19 case positive age distribution shifted with a 10% decline in cases age 60 years and older and a 20% increase in age 0-19/20-39 years (chi-square = 223.10, p <.001). Number of cases over the eight-week analysis period were 0-19 years n = 515, 20-39 years n = 4078, 40-59 years n =4788, 60-79 years n = 3221, 80+ years n = 1332. After the peak (March 22, 2020), as incidence declined in older age groups, the combined percentage of cases age 0-19 and 20-39 increased from 20% to 40% of total cases. During this time testing expanded with more testing among older age groups while case positivity shifted young. Percent positive cases by age through August 2020 increased to a consistent average of 60% less than age 40 [age 0-19 increased to 19% (N = 10257), age 20-39 increased to 42% (N = 30215)].ConclusionsAn increased share of COVID-19 incidence among children (age 0-19) and young adults (age 20-39) indicates their elevated role in propagating the epidemic by creating a reservoir of disease with risk of spillovers to more vulnerable older persons and those with comorbid conditions. Media savvy and age appropriate COVID-19 messaging may increase mitigation compliance among these less vulnerable, more mobile and lower priority vaccination age groups. As vaccines become available, mitigation will continue to be a priority to reduce overall population incidence.

scholarly journals COVID-19 Confirmed Case Incidence Age Shift to Young Persons Age 0-19 and 20-39 Years Over Time: Washington State March - April 2020

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Judith Malmgren ◽  
Boya Guo ◽  
Henry G. Kaplan
Keyword(s):  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Washington State ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Department Of Health ◽  
Children And Young Adults ◽  
Washington State Department ◽  
Age Shift ◽  
Over Time

AbstractBackgroundAs the coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic passes the peak infection rate in some states and counties a phased re-opening with changes of stay-at-home restrictions and social distancing recommendations may lead to an increase of nonessential work, social activities and gathering, especially among younger persons.MethodsA longitudinal cohort analysis of Washington State Department of Health COVID-19 confirmed case age distribution March 1-April 19 2020 for proportional change over time using chi square tests for significance (N = 13,934).ResultsFrom March 1st to April 19, 2020 age distribution shifted with a 10% decline in cases age 60 years and older and a 20% increase in age 0-19/20-39 years (chi-square = 223.10, p <.001). Number of cases over the eight-week analysis period were 0-19 years n = 515, 20-39 years n = 4078, 40-59 years n =4788, 60-79 years n = 3221, 80+ years n = 1332. New cases increased steadily among 0-19 and 20-39-year olds. After the peak (March 22, 2020), there was no decline among age 0-19 and a lesser decline among age 20-39 than older groups. As incidence declined in older age groups, the combined percentage of cases age 0-19 and 20-39 increased from 20% to 40% of total cases.ConclusionsIncreased COVID-19 infection among children and young adults is not without serious morbidity and mortality risk to them and others they may come in contact with, indicating a targeted approach for awareness and safety measures is advisable to reduce incidence among the supposedly less vulnerable but more mobile young population age 0-19 and 20-39 years.

scholarly journals Continued proportional age shift of confirmed positive COVID-19 incidence over time to children and young adults: Washington State March—August 2020

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. e0243042
Author(s):  
Judith Malmgren ◽  
Boya Guo ◽  
Henry G. Kaplan
Keyword(s):  
Young Adults ◽  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Washington State ◽  
Older Age ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Lower Priority ◽  
Over Time

Background As the coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic passed initial infection peak in Washington State, phased re-opening lifted stay-at-home orders and restrictions leading to increased non-essential work, social activities and gathering, especially among younger persons. Methods A longitudinal cohort analysis of Washington State Department of Health COVID-19 confirmed case age distribution 1) March-April 2020 (N = 13,934) and 2) March-August 2020 (N = 76,032) for proportional change over time using chi square tests for significance. Results From March 1st to April 19, 2020 COVID-19 age distribution shifted with a 10% decline in cases age 60 years and older and a 20% increase in age 0-19/20-39 years (chi-square = 223.10, p < .001). Number of cases over the initial analysis period were 0–19 years n = 515, 20–39 years n = 4078, 40–59 years n = 4788, 60–79 years n = 3221, 80+ years n = 1332. After the peak (March 22, 2020), incidence declined in older age groups and increased among age 0–19 and 20–39 age groups from 20% to 40% of total cases by April 19 and 50% by May 3. During this time testing expanded with more testing among older age groups and less testing among younger age groups while case positivity shifted young. Percent positive cases age 0-19/20-39 years through August 2020 increased to a consistent average of 60% [age 0–19 increased to 19% (N = 10257), age 20–39 increased to 42% (N = 30215)]. Conclusions An increased sustained proportion of COVID-19 incidence is present among children (age 0–19) and young adults (age 20–39) indicating an elevated role in disease spread during the epidemic creating a possible reservoir of disease with spillover risk to more vulnerable older persons and those with comorbid conditions. Media savvy age-appropriate messaging to enhance mitigation compliance among less vulnerable, more mobile and lower priority vaccination age groups will be a continued necessity and priority to reduce overall population incidence.

scholarly journals Epidemiology and Trends of Pertussis among Infants: United States, 2000–2015

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (suppl_1) ◽  
pp. S5-S5 ◽  
Author(s):  
Catherine Bozio ◽  
Tami Skoff ◽  
Tracy Pondo ◽  
Jennifer Liang
Keyword(s):  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Severe Disease ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Annual Average ◽  
Young Infants ◽  
Hospitalization Rates ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Over Time

Abstract Background Pertussis, a cyclic respiratory disease, causes the greatest morbidity and mortality among infants, particularly those too young to be vaccinated. Following a resurgence of pertussis in the 1990s, a recommendation was made in 2012 to vaccinate during every pregnancy in order to prevent infant disease. We describe pertussis trends from 2000–2015 among U.S. infants aged &lt;1 year. Methods We analyzed infant pertussis cases reported through the National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System from 2000 to 2015. Incidence rates (cases per 100,000 population) among various age groups (&lt;2, 2– &lt;4, 4– &lt;6, and 6–&lt;12 months) were calculated using National Center for Health Statistics population estimates as denominators. Negative binomial regression was used to estimate the annual average percent change with a linear trend; P &lt; 0.05 was significant. Results From 2000 to 2015, 48,909 infant pertussis cases and 255 deaths were reported; infants aged &lt;2 months accounted for 38.7% of cases. The age distribution of infant cases was stable from 2000 to 2009 but changed from 2010 to 2015 (Fig. 1), as the proportion of cases aged 4–&lt;12 months increased annually on average by 4.7% (P &lt; 0.001). Annual incidence was highest among &lt;2 month olds; however, rates increased among older infants (Fig. 2): 7% average annual increase among infants aged 4–&lt;6 months and 11% among infants aged 6–&lt;12 months (P &lt; 0.001 for each). The proportion of infants hospitalized decreased over time in each age group (P &lt; 0.001 for all) with the largest annual average declines among 4–&lt;6 (−5.1%) and 6–&lt;12 month (−5.9%) olds. For all age groups, hospitalization rates were relatively stable, but non-hospitalization rates increased (P &lt; 0.05 for all). The case–fatality ratio (CFR) was highest among &lt;2 month olds (1.6%); CFRs decreased over time among &lt;2 and 2–&lt; 4 month olds (P &lt; 0.05 for each). Conclusion Pertussis incidence remains highest among infants aged &lt;4 months, although the age distribution appears to be changing. Decreasing proportions of infants hospitalized may suggest a true decline in disease severity or an increase in reporting of less severe disease. Ongoing monitoring of infant pertussis is needed to better understand the impact of vaccinating pregnant women to prevent pertussis in young infants. Disclosures All authors: No reported disclosures.

scholarly journals Centralidade do trabalho na perspectiva de mulheres em diferentes faixas etárias

2017 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 9-36
Author(s):  
Patrícia Moreira da Rocha Amaral De Souza ◽  
Ana Luiza Szuchmacher Verissimo Lopes ◽  
Adriana Victoria Garibaldi Hilal
Keyword(s):  
Women Workers ◽  
Rio De Janeiro ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Primary Source ◽  
Private Companies ◽  
Private Organizations ◽  
Depth Interview ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Changes Over Time

No presente estudo descreve-se a centralidade do trabalho na perspectiva de mulheres brasileiras, com nível superior, de diferentes faixas etárias (20 a 29 anos, 30 a 39 anos, acima de 40 anos) e que trabalham em empresas privadas na Cidade do Rio de Janeiro. Este é um estudo qualitativo em que se utilizou a análise de conteúdo como método de pesquisa e teve-se como principal fonte de dados a entrevista em profundidade. A análise foi realizada em torno da dimensão centralidade do trabalho, que consiste na importância absoluta (valor atribuído ao trabalho dentro da vida do indivíduo) e relativa (valor atribuído a ele se comparado a outras esferas da vida, como família, amigos, lazer e religião, entre outras) do trabalho na vida de uma pessoa (MOW, 1987). Na pesquisa identificou-se que o trabalho remunerado é uma atividade central e importante na vida das entrevistadas. No entanto, verificou-se também que a relação afetiva e temporal com o trabalho passa por mudanças ao longo do tempo. À medida que as entrevistadas vão adquirindo maior maturidade e experiência, elas repensam suas prioridades e procuram, efetivamente, em maior ou menor medida, conciliar o trabalho com outras esferas de suas vidas. A maternidade parece contribuir significativamente para que desejem estabelecer novas dinâmicas cotidianas, podendo participar ativamente da criação de seus filhos e da rotina familiar.Palavras-chave: Centralidade do trabalho. Trabalhadoras. Empresas privadas. Diferentes faixas etárias. Pesquisa qualitativa. Abstract This study aimed to describe and analyze the centrality of work in the perspective of Brazilian women with higher education, from different age groups (20 to 29 years, 30 to 39 years, over 40 years), and working in private companies in the City of Rio de Janeiro. This is a qualitative study, and used content analysis as research method and in-depth interview as a primary source of data. The analysis was performed around the dimension centrality of work, which is the absolute importance (relevance assigned to work within the life of the individual) and the relative importance (relevance assigned to it compared to other spheres of life such as family, friends, leisure and religion, among others) of work in a person's life (MOW, 1987). The research identified that paid work is a central and important activity in the lives of the interviewees. However, it also found that the emotional and temporal relationship with the work changes over time. As the respondents acquire greater maturity and experience, they rethink their priorities, and effectively seek, at greater or lesser extent, to reconcile work with other spheres of their lives. Motherhood seems to contribute significantly to wishing to establish new daily dynamics and be able to actively participate in the upbringing of their children and family routine.Keywords: Centrality of work. Private organizations. Women workers. Age distribution. Qualitative analysis.

Israel’s Ground Forces in the Occupied Territories

2020 ◽  
Vol 35 (2) ◽  
pp. 37-57
Author(s):  
Eyal Ben-Ari ◽  
Uzi Ben-Shalom
Keyword(s):  
High Intensity ◽  
Force Generation ◽  
Institutional Autonomy ◽  
Multiple Forms ◽  
The West ◽  
Occupied Territories ◽  
Media Monitoring ◽  
Israel Defense Forces ◽  
And Control ◽  
Over Time

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) routinely rotate ground forces in and out of the Occupied Territories in the West Bank. While these troops are trained for soldiering in high-intensity wars, in the Territories they have long had to carry out a variety of policing activities. These activities often exist in tension with their soldierly training and ethos, both of which center on violent encounters. IDF ground forces have adapted to this situation by maintaining a hierarchy of ‘logics of action’, in which handling potentially hostile encounters takes precedence over other forms of policing. Over time, this hierarchy has been adapted to the changed nature of contemporary conflict, in which soldiering is increasingly exposed to multiple forms of media, monitoring, and juridification. To maintain its public legitimacy and institutional autonomy, the IDF has had to adapt to the changes imposed on it by creating multiple mechanisms of force generation and control of soldierly action.

The AKP’s Foreign Policy

2015 ◽  
Vol 32 (4) ◽  
pp. 21-46
Author(s):  
Kubilay Arin
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Soft Power ◽  
The West ◽  
Islamic Revival ◽  
Western State ◽  
New Strategy ◽  
Over Time

When Turkey’s Justice and Development Part (AKP) came to power in 2002, it brought a new strategy to foreign policy. Some scholars ascribed this reorientation to the rise of neo-Ottomanism, others to Islamization, and yet others to a Middle Easternization of foreign policy. All labels have one element in common: They give weight to Islam and Turkey’s imperial past as soft power assetsin the conduct of foreign policy by rejecting secular Kemalism in the country’s diplomacy. The AKP capitalized on Turgut Özal’s neo-Ottomanist foreign policy and Necmettin Erbakan’s multi-dimensional foreign policy by using Turkey’s pivotal geopolitical location to transform it into a global actor. The ongoing Islamic revival has caused the country’s attempted full westernization to slow down. But the West itself is hardly a monolithic bloc, given its own many internal cultural, linguistic,religious, political, and economic differences. I therefore describe Turkey as a “hybrid,” a modern and developing “semi-western” state, and argue that over time it will become ever more “socially conservative.”

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