scholarly journals Spotlight on the dark figure: Exhibiting dynamics in the case detection ratio of COVID-19 infections in Germany

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marc Schneble ◽  
Giacomo De Nicola ◽  
Göran Kauermann ◽  
Ursula Berger
Keyword(s):  
Age Groups ◽  
Case Detection ◽  
Testing Strategies ◽  
True Number ◽  
Detection Ratio ◽  
True Infection ◽  
Changes Over Time ◽  
Dark Figure ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Over Time

AbstractThe case detection ratio of COVID-19 infections varies over time due to changing testing capacities, modified testing strategies and also, apparently, due to the dynamics in the number of infected itself. In this paper we investigate these dynamics by jointly looking at the reported number of detected COVID-19 infections with non-fatal and fatal outcomes in different age groups in Germany. We propose a statistical approach that allows us to spotlight the case detection ratio and quantify its changes over time. With this we can adjust the case counts reported at different time points so that they become comparable. Moreover we can explore the temporal development of the real number of infections, shedding light on the dark number. The results show that the case detection ratio has increased and, depending on the age group, is four to six times higher at the beginning of the second wave compared to what it was at the peak of the first wave. The true number of infection in Germany in October was considerably lower as during the peak of the first wave, where only a small fraction of COVID-19 infections were detected. Our modelling approach also allows quantifying the effects of different testing strategies on the case detection ratio. The analysis of the dynamics in the case detection rate and in the true infection figures enables a clearer picture of the course of the COVID-19 pandemic.

scholarly journals Evolution of case fatality rates in the second wave of coronavirus in England: effects of false positives, a Variant of Concern and vaccination.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
James A Ackland ◽  
Graeme J Ackland ◽  
David J Wallace
Keyword(s):  
False Positive ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Potential Effect ◽  
Time To Death ◽  
New Variant ◽  
Government Data ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Over Time

Objective: To track the statistical case fatality rate (CFR) in the second wave of the UK coronavirus outbreak, and to understand its variations over time. Design: Publicly available UK government data and clinical evidence on the time between first positive PCR test and death are used to determine the relationships between reported cases and deaths, according to age groups and across regions in England. Main Outcome Measures: Estimates of case fatality rates and their variations over time. Results: Throughout October and November 2020, deaths in England can be broadly understood in terms of CFRs which are approximately constant over time. The same CFRs prove a poor predictor of deaths when applied back to September, when prevalence of the virus was comparatively low, suggesting that the potential effect of false positive tests needs to be taken into account. Similarly, increasing CFRs are needed to match cases to deaths when projecting the model forwards into December. The growth of the S gene dropout VOC in December occurs too late to explain this increase in CFR alone, but at 33% increased mortality, it can explain the peak in deaths in January. On our analysis, if there were other factors responsible for the higher CFRs in December and January, 33% would be an upper bound for the higher mortality of the VOC. From the second half of January, the CFRs for older age groups show a marked decline. Since the fraction of the VOC has not decreased, this decline is likely to be the result of the rollout of vaccination. However, due to the rapidly decreasing nature of the raw cases data (likely due to a combination of vaccination and lockdown), any imprecisions in the time-to-death distribution are greatly exacerbated in this time period, rendering estimates of vaccination effect imprecise. Conclusions: The relationship between cases and deaths, even when controlling for age, is not static through the second wave of coronavirus in England. An apparently anomalous low case-fatality ratio in September can be accounted for by a modest 0.4% false-positive fraction. The large jump in CFR in December can be understood in terms of a more deadly new variant B1.1.7, while a decline in January correlates with vaccine roll-out, suggesting that vaccine reduce the severity of infection, as well as the risk.

Trends in the Incidence of Legal Problems and in the Use of Lawyers

1978 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 289-313 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yakov Avichai
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Strong Increase ◽  
Government Regulations ◽  
Legal Problems ◽  
Socioeconomic Changes ◽  
Age Dependent ◽  
Changes Over Time ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Over Time

Changes in the law, government regulations, socioeconomic changes, increased consumerism, the public's level of awareness—all these and other factors influence the population's demand over time for lawyers' services. This article analyzes the changes over time in the two elements that determine the demand for lawyers: the number of legal problems encountered by the population and the rate of use of lawyers in solving these problems. After showing that sequential occurrences of legal problems are not independent of each other and are age dependent, the author develops a mathematical model that explains the variability in the present number of problems encountered by different age groups. The number of problems is found to result from a relatively mild accumulation with age of legal problems, coupled with a strong increase in the number of problems from generation to generation. The analysis of individual legal problems reveals a variety of patterns from problem to problem in both the level of occurrence and the rate of use of lawyers for such problems. The author concludes that the combined effect of occurrence and utilization will operate toward a continuing increase in the demand for lawyers'services at least for the very near future.

scholarly journals Can age-distribution be an indicator of the goodness of COVID-19 testing?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amirhoshang Hoseinpour Dehkordi ◽  
Reza Nemati ◽  
Pouya Tavousi
Keyword(s):  
Lower Bound ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Testing Strategies ◽  
Reported Data ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Mitigation Policies

AbstractIt has been evident that the faster, more accurate, and more comprehensive testing can help policymakers assess the real impact of COVID-19 and help them with when and how strict the mitigation policies should be. Nevertheless, the exact number of infected ones could not be measured due to the lack of comprehensive testing. In this paper, first of all, we will investigate the relation of transmission of COVID-19 with age by observing timed data in multiple countries. Then, we compare the COVID-19 CFR with the age-demography data. and as a result, we have proposed a method for estimating a lower bound for the number of positive cases by using the reported data on the oldest age group and the regions’ population age-distributions. The proposed estimation method improved the expected similarity between the age-distribution of positive cases and regions’ populations. Thus, using the publicly accessible data for several developed countries, we show how the improvement of testing over the course of several months has made it clear for the community that different age groups are equally prone to becoming COVID positive. The result shows that the age demography of COVID-19 gets similar to the age-demography of the population, together with the reduction of CFR over time. In addition, countries with less CFR have more similar COVID-19’s age-distribution, which is caused by more comprehensive testing, than ones who have higher CFR. This leads us to a better estimation for positive cases in different testing strategies. Having knowledge of this fact helps policymakers enforce more effective policies for controlling the spread of the virus.

Consumer Knowledge and Acceptance of Driving Automation: Changes Over Time and Across Age Groups

2021 ◽  
Vol 65 (1) ◽  
pp. 1395-1399
Author(s):  
Chaiwoo Lee ◽  
Pnina Gershon ◽  
Bryan Reimer ◽  
Bruce Mehler ◽  
Joseph F. Coughlin
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
The United States ◽  
Consumer Knowledge ◽  
Safety Assurance ◽  
Vehicle Automation ◽  
Willingness To Use ◽  
Changes Over Time ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Knowledge And Acceptance

Increasing availability of and extensive investments toward automation in consumer vehicles call for a better understanding of public perceptions and acceptance. This study presents a five-year series of large-scale surveys (N=17,548, average 3,510 participants/year) on consumer knowledge and acceptance of vehicle automation in the United States. Results suggest a continued hesitance toward use of self-driving vehicles, with willingness to use increasing sharply under hypothetical conditions around inability to drive and added safety assurance. While drivers of all ages were most comfortable with driver assist level automation, acceptance of automation overall decreased with age. Findings also indicate that the public may have incorrect beliefs regarding the availability of self-driving vehicles. In conclusion, drivers’ acceptance of vehicle automation changes over time, is tied to factors beyond the current state of development and deployment, and may depend on a relative assessment of benefits and reliability in comparison to their own driving capabilities.

MO768VASCULAR ACCESS FOR PEDIATRIC HEMODIALYSIS PATIENTS IN CATALONIA: ANALYSIS OF DATA FROM THE CATALAN RENAL REGISTRY (1997-2018)

2021 ◽  
Vol 36 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ramon Roca-Tey ◽  
Maria Gema Ariceta Iraola ◽  
Héctor Ríos ◽  
Jordi Comas ◽  
Jaume Tort
Keyword(s):  
Pediatric Population ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Kidney Graft ◽  
Short Period ◽  
Pediatric Hemodialysis ◽  
Kidney Replacement Therapy ◽  
Kidney Disease Progression ◽  
Almost All ◽  
Changes Over Time ◽  
Over Time

Abstract Background The vascular access (VA) is the life-line for children with kidney failure (KT) on hemodialysis (HD). The European Society for Paediatric Nephrology Dialysis Working Group suggested that children requiring HD start with a functioning arteriovenous fistula (AVF) but a tunnelled catheter (TC) can be placed instead where a short period on HD is anticipated before kidney transplantation (KT) (NDT 2019; 34: 1746–1765). Aims To analyze the type of VA used by incident and prevalent KF pediatric patients (pts) treated with HD in Catalonia Method Data from the Catalan Renal Registry of KF pts younger than 18 years of age undergoing kidney replacement therapy (KRT) were examined for a 22-year period. Results The modality of KRT used by incident KF pediatric pts has changed significantly over time: the percentage of children who started KRT through HD decreased progressively from 89.9% during the 1984-1989 period to 38.2% during the 2014-2018 period and, conversely, the percentage of children who started KRT by using pre-emptive KT increased progressively from 5.1% to 42.6% between the same periods (for both comparisons, p<0.001). During 2018, 18 children started KRT (rate: 12.8 per milion of population, pmp) by using pre-emptive KT (n=8, 44.4%), peritoneal dialysis (n=5, 27.8%) or HD (n=5, 27.8%). From 1997 to 2018, 112 KF pediatric pts started KRT by using HD (mean age 9.4±6,0 yr, male 58.9%, glomerular disease 36.8%). Most children started HD through an AVF during the 1997-2001 period (56.5%) but this percentage decreased over time and no children used an AVF for starting HD during the 2012-2018 period. On the contrary, the percentage of children starting HD through a TC increased progressively from 8.7% to 72.2% between the same periods (for both comparisons, p<0.001). No significant changes over time were recorded regarding untunnelled catheter (UC) utilization from 34.8% (1997-2001 period) to 27.8% (2012-2018 period) (p=0.57). Considering two age groups (0-6 vs 7-18 years), VA distribution was the following (%): 23.3 vs 76.7 for UC, 47.2 vs 52.8 for TC and 26.3 vs 73.7 for AVF (p=0.058). Regarding KF presentation, UC was used mainly to initiate HD in crashlanders (53.3%) and AVF was used mainly to start HD in children with steady kidney disease progression (63.2%) (p=0.003). The KRT modality of using prevalent KF pediatric pts has also changed significantly over time: pts on HD decreased from 34.9% (n=15, mean age 13.5 yr) in 1997 to 4.7% (n=5, mean age 11.6 yr) in 2018 and, conversely, pts with a kidney graft increased from 62.8% (n=27, mean age 13.7 yr) to 92.4% (n=98, mean age 11.2 yr) during the same period (for both comparisons, p<0.001). The percentage of children dialyzed through an AVF decreased progressively from 1997 (100%) to 2018 (0%) (p<0.001). All prevalent HD pts were dialyzed through a catheter in 2018. The KT rate increased significantly from 5.4 pmp (n=6) in 1997 to 17.1 pmp (n=24) in 2018 (p=0.007). The median time on HD (months) prior to the first KT decreased progressively from 23.1 during the 1984-1989 period to 6.6 during the 2014-2018 period (p<0.001). Conclusions 1) The VA profile of pediatric population treated with HD in Catalonia has radically changed over time. 2) Since 2012, AVF has practically disappeared as the VA in the incident and prevalent pediatric population on HD. 3) Almost all children treated by HD since 2012 were dialyzed through a catheter due to the short waiting time before receiving a kidney graft. 4) The high KT rate was a determining factor in choosing the AV type in the pediatric population treated with HD in Catalonia.

scholarly journals Changes over time in prevalence rates of past-year cannabis use by men and women with a psychotic disorder.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Waterreus ◽  
Patsy Di Prinzio ◽  
Johanna C. Badcock ◽  
Mathew T. Martin-Iverson ◽  
Vera A. Morgan
Keyword(s):  
General Population ◽  
Psychotic Disorder ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Population Data ◽  
Cannabis Use ◽  
Psychotic Illness ◽  
Men And Women ◽  
National Drug ◽  
Changes Over Time ◽  
Over Time

Abstract Background: General population data show cannabis use by younger people is declining but increasing in older adults. Overall, the gap between men and women appears to be narrowing. Little has been documented about sex and age differences in patterns of cannabis use over time by people with a psychotic disorder. We examined rates of past-year cannabis use by sex and age to determine whether use by this population has changed over time. Methods: Data on cannabis use from Australian National Psychosis Surveys (1997, 2010) were analysed by sex and age and compared to National Drug Strategy Household Surveys (1998, 2010). Results: Prevalence of past-year cannabis use by people with psychotic illness dropped significantly from 38.2% to 33.7%. Both sexes showed a decline in use. The steeper decline in use by men aged 18-29 years (70.2% to 47.8%) contributed to a narrowing of the sex gap. Conversely, use by men aged 55-64 increased from 4.8% to 18.8%. General population data showed a similar pattern of change across sex and age groups. Conclusions: Despite declining rates of past-year cannabis use in people with a psychotic illness, rates remain more than double that of the general population. Traditionally, men were more likely to use cannabis than women, but convergence in rates in younger people shows this is changing. Furthermore, cannabis use is not restricted to young people. Increasing use of cannabis by older men will place additional demands on drug and alcohol services.

scholarly journals Shadi Park Renovation with Social Development Emphasis: A Case Study Halabja City, Iraq

2021 ◽  
pp. 110-125
Author(s):  
Mihraban Othman Mustafa ◽  
Masoumeh Faraji ◽  
Zaniar Jamal Salih ◽  
Muhammed Saeed Rasheed
Keyword(s):  
Age Groups ◽  
Lifestyle Changes ◽  
Green Spaces ◽  
Human Beings ◽  
Urban Green ◽  
Urban Green Spaces ◽  
The People ◽  
Wear And Tear ◽  
Changes Over Time ◽  
Over Time

The expansion of urbanization and the lack of open spaces in cities, urban green spaces have become very important, especially in recent decades. Among urban green spaces, parks are important because they have leisure and recreational functions, and the favorable physical and mental effects on humans have been proven today. Depreciation of materials, park equipment, destruction of vegetation and lifestyle changes over time have changed the needs and desires of the people and caused the old parks do not meet the needs of citizens. Today, improving parks is a new approach that makes parks matches the demands human beings have evolved over time with the advancement of technology. Shadi Park in Iraq is one of the regional urban parks; the lack of its design, as well as the wear and tear of some uses, lack of optimal lighting system and various uses by different age groups reduces the number of visits. In this research, based on field perceptions of the park and public opinion polls, prioritization and solutions to strengthen the presence of people has been pointed out. The results of the questionnaire indicate the priority of people's demands, the most important of which include: building a sports venue for women, proper service of restaurants and cafes during the day and night, the presence of swimming pools and fountains in the park, parking at the entrances, space allocation to hold cultural and artistic festivals.

The Perception of Residential Desirability in the Western Region of Nigeria

1970 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 73-87 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Gould ◽  
D. Ola
Keyword(s):  
Mass Media ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Form Perception ◽  
Western Region ◽  
Geographic Space ◽  
Travel Experience ◽  
The Western Region ◽  
Changes Over Time ◽  
Family Membership ◽  
Over Time

This paper attempts to extend the investigation of geographic space preferences, focussing particularly on their development and their change from childhood to adulthood, and on the flows of information from which such images are formed. The data used is from Lagos and Western Nigeria. First, the area, the participants, and the questionnaire are explained. Then the space preferences of the area (from five locations) for four age groups from thirteen to twenty-three are described, and the differences between the groups are mapped. The changes over time in these space preferences are discussed, and linked to ideas on the flows of information which help form perception surfaces. The mass media, migration, travel experience, and family membership are discussed. The paper concludes with some hypotheses on the nature of space-learning.

Ecofeminism revisited: critical insights on contemporary environmental governance

2021 ◽  
pp. 146470012098863
Author(s):  
Emma Foster
Keyword(s):  
Feminist Theory ◽  
Environmental Governance ◽  
Early Career ◽  
Special Issue ◽  
The Past ◽  
International Environmental Governance ◽  
Academic Feminism ◽  
Changes Over Time ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Over Time

Echoing other articles in this special issue, this article re-evaluates a collection of feminist works that fell out of fashion as a consequence of academic feminism embracing poststructuralist and postmodernist trends. In line with fellow contributors, the article critically reflects upon the unsympathetic reading of feminisms considered to be essentialising and universalistic, in order to re-evaluate, in my case, ecofeminism. As an introduction, I reflect on my own perhaps unfair rejection of ecofeminism as a doctoral researcher and early career academic who, in critiquing 1990s international environmental governance, sought to problematise the essentialist premise on which it appeared to be based. The article thereafter challenges this well-rehearsed critique by carefully revisiting a sample of ecofeminist work produced between the late 1970s and the early 1990s. In an effort to avoid wholesale abandonment of the wealth of feminist theory often labelled as second wave, or the rendering of feminisms of the past as redundant as feminist theory changes over time, this article re-reads the work of ecofeminists, such as Starhawk, Susan Griffin and Vandana Shiva, to demonstrate their contemporary relevance. In so doing, the article argues that a contemporary re-reading of ecofeminism offers insights allowing for a radical rethinking of contemporary environmental governance.

Comparison of two devices for measuring exercise transcutaneous oxygen pressures in patients with claudication

VASA ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 44 (5) ◽  
pp. 355-362 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marie Urban ◽  
Alban Fouasson-Chailloux ◽  
Isabelle Signolet ◽  
Christophe Colas Ribas ◽  
Mathieu Feuilloy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Oxygen Pressure ◽  
Optical Sensors ◽  
Chemical Sensors ◽  
Transcutaneous Oxygen ◽  
Starting Values ◽  
Two Systems ◽  
Transcutaneous Oxygen Pressure ◽  
New Sensors ◽  
Changes Over Time ◽  
Over Time

Abstract. Summary: Background: We aimed at estimating the agreement between the Medicap® (photo-optical) and Radiometer® (electro-chemical) sensors during exercise transcutaneous oxygen pressure (tcpO2) tests. Our hypothesis was that although absolute starting values (tcpO2rest: mean over 2 minutes) might be different, tcpO2-changes over time and the minimal value of the decrease from rest of oxygen pressure (DROPmin) results at exercise shall be concordant between the two systems. Patients and methods: Forty seven patients with arterial claudication (65 + / - 7 years) performed a treadmill test with 5 probes each of the electro-chemical and photo-optical devices simultaneously, one of each system on the chest, on each buttock and on each calf. Results: Seventeen Medicap® probes disconnected during the tests. tcpO2rest and DROPmin values were higher with Medicap® than with Radiometer®, by 13.7 + / - 17.1 mm Hg and 3.4 + / - 11.7 mm Hg, respectively. Despite the differences in absolute starting values, changes over time were similar between the two systems. The concordance between the two systems was approximately 70 % for classification of test results from DROPmin. Conclusions: Photo-optical sensors are promising alternatives to electro-chemical sensors for exercise oximetry, provided that miniaturisation and weight reduction of the new sensors are possible.

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