scholarly journals Hospitalization as reliable indicator of second wave COVID-19 pandemic in eight European countries

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mattia Allieta ◽  
Davide Rossi Sebastiano
Keyword(s):  
European Countries ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Actual Number ◽  
Infected People ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
Model Equations ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Early Phases ◽  
Country Specific

AbstractTime dependent reproduction number (Rt) is one of the most popular parameters to track the impact of COVID-19 pandemic. However, especially at the initial stages, Rt can be highly underestimated because of remarkable differences between the actual number of infected people and the daily incidence of people who are tested positive. Here, we present the analysis of daily cumulative number of hospitalized (HP) and intensive care unit (ICU) patients both in space and in time in the early phases of second wave COVID-19 pandemic across eight different European countries, namely Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, France, Italy, Portugal, Spain, and United Kingdom. We derive simple model equations to fit the time dependence of these two variables where exponential behavior is observed. Growth rate constants of HP and ICU are listed, providing country-specific parameters able to estimate the burden of SARS-COV-2 infection before extensive containment measures take place. Our quantitative parameters, fully related to hospitalizations, are disentangled from the capacity range of the screening campaign, for example the number of swabs, and they cannot be directly biased by the actual number of infected people. This approach can give an array of reliable indicators which can be used by governments and healthcare systems to monitor the dynamics of COVID-19 epidemic.

scholarly journals Forecasting the impact of the containment measures for COVID-19 in France, Italy, and Spain

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Omar A Almohammed ◽  
Abdullah A. Alhifany ◽  
Yazed S. Al-Ruthia
Keyword(s):  
Similar Rate ◽  
Response Strategy ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Infected People ◽  
First Response ◽  
Trained Personnel ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
Visual Reference ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background: The Coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) is now a major challenge for healthcare systems in many countries, including some of the G20 countries like China, Italy and France. The purpose of this paper was to estimate how this disease could impact Italy, Spain and France, in comparison to China, based on the timing of their first response to the epidemic.Methods: The study visually estimated when will the suppression strategies implemented in Italy, Spain and France would change the direction of the daily new infections curve. The study utilizes the publicly available data from the WHO website. The curve representing the response strategy from China was used as a visual reference in this case, assuming that the virus is impacting all populations in the same way, transmitted in similar rate, and the time needed from the implementation of the suppression strategies to the appearance of its impact would be identical in all countries. Then, the total number of cases and deaths will be estimated from the produced curve, based on the current death rate among all infected people in each countryResult: The response in the three countries was not as fast as it was in China. Based on the cumulative number of cases at the response time, France was the fastest responder to the epidemic; therefore, we expect it will be the least impacted among three countries with about 97,523 cases and 4,876 deaths. Followed by Spain with approximately 153,013 cases and 14,536 deaths, then Italy with 162,885 cases and 20,034 deaths. The peak date for the new confirmed cases was expected to be around April 2nd for Italy and Spain, and April 6th for France. Then, the new daily cases should be declining to around Zero by the end of April or the beginning of May.Conclusion: Italy, followed by Spain, will be the most impacted countries in the European Union. Therefore, the support for Italy and Spain at this time is very needed, especially with medically trained personnel.

scholarly journals A data-driven model of the COVID-19 spread among interconnected populations: epidemiological and mobility aspects following the lockdown in Italy

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paolo Di Giamberardino ◽  
Daniela Iacoviello ◽  
Federico Papa ◽  
Carmela Sinisgalli
Keyword(s):  
Group Structure ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
Group Model ◽  
Disease Evolution ◽  
Analytical Stability ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
Disease Diffusion ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Second Wave

AbstractAn epidemic multi-group model formed by interconnected SEIR-like structures is formulated and used for data fitting to gain insight into the COVID-19 dynamics and into the role of non-pharmaceutical control actions implemented to limit the infection spread since its outbreak in Italy. The single submodels provide a rather accurate description of the COVID-19 evolution in each subpopulation by an extended SEIR model including the class of asymptomatic infectives, which is recognized as a determinant for disease diffusion. The multi-group structure is specifically designed to investigate the effects of the inter-regional mobility restored at the end of the first strong lockdown in Italy (June 3, 2020). In its time-invariant version, the model is shown to enjoy some analytical stability properties which provide significant insights on the efficacy of the implemented control measurements. In order to highlight the impact of human mobility on the disease evolution in Italy between the first and second wave onset, the model is applied to fit real epidemiological data of three geographical macro-areas in the period March–October 2020, including the mass departure for summer holidays. The simulation results are in good agreement with the data, so that the model can represent a useful tool for predicting the effects of the combination of containment measures in triggering future pandemic scenarios. Particularly, the simulation shows that, although the unrestricted mobility alone appears to be insufficient to trigger the second wave, the human transfers were crucial to make uniform the spatial distribution of the infection throughout the country and, combined with the restart of the production, trade, and education activities, determined a time advance of the contagion increase since September 2020.

scholarly journals THE IMPACT OF LOCKDOWN ON PUBLIC HEALTH DURING THE FIRST WAVE OF COVID-19 PANDEMIC: LESSONS LEARNED FOR DESIGNING EFFECTIVE CONTAINMENT MEASURES TO COPE WITH SECOND WAVE

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mario Coccia
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Social Issues ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Second Wave

AbstractWhat is hardly known in the studies of the COVID-19 global pandemic crisis is the impact of general lockdown during the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic both public health and economic system. The main goal of this study is a comparative analysis of some European countries with a longer and shorter period of national lockdown during the first wave of COVID-19 from March to August 2020. Findings suggests that: a) countries with shorter period of lockdown have a variation of confirmed cases/population (%) higher than countries with longer period of lockdown; b) countries with shorter period of lockdown have average fatality rate (5.45%) lower than countries with longer period of lockdown (12.70%), whereas variation of fatality rate from August to March 2020 suggests a higher reduction in countries with longer period of lockdown (−1.9% vs 0.72%). However, Independent Samples Test and the Mann-Whitney test reveal that the effectiveness of longer period of lockdown versus shorter one on public health is not significant. In addition, the COVID-19 pandemic associated with longer period of lockdown has a higher negative impact on economic growth with consequential social issues in countries. Results of the impact of COVID-19 lockdowns on public health and economies of some leading countries in Europe, during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, can provide vital information to design effective containment strategies in future waves of this pandemic to minimize the negative effects in society.

scholarly journals Modeling analysis of a SEIQR epidemic model to assess the impact of undetected cases , and predict the early peack of the COVID-19 outbreak in Cameroon

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
NKAGUE NKAMBA LEONTINE ◽  
MAYOMBE MANN MARTIN LUTHER ◽  
MANGA THOMAS TIMOTHEE ◽  
J. Mbang
Keyword(s):  
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽  
Lyapunov Functions ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Benign Diseases ◽  
Infected People ◽  
Modeling Analysis ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Case Data ◽  
Disease Free

Abstract COVID-19 is a highly contagious disease, and the strain is severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). It belongs to the coronavirus family, which can result in benign diseases in humans, such as a cold, and can also cause serious pathologies such as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS). In this study, we have modeled the COVID-19 epidemic in Cameroon. We used early reported case data to predict the peak, assess the impact of containment measures, and the impact of undetected infected people on the epidemic trend and characteristics of COVID-19. The basic reproduction number is computed using Lyapunov functions, and the global stability of disease-free and endemic equilibrium are demonstrated.

scholarly journals Wage response to global production links: evidence for workers from 28 European countries (2005–2014)

2020 ◽  
Vol 156 (4) ◽  
pp. 769-801
Author(s):  
Aleksandra Parteka ◽  
Joanna Wolszczak-Derlacz
Keyword(s):  
Western Europe ◽  
High Income ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Occupational Task ◽  
Backward Linkages ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Country Specific

Abstract Using rich individual level data on workers from 28 European countries, this study provides the first so extensive cross-country assessment of wage response to global production links within GVC in the period 2005–2014. Unlike the other studies, the authors (i) address the importance of backward linkages in globally integrated production structures (capturing imports of goods and services needed in any stage of the production of the final product); (ii) measure occupational task profile of workers with country-specific indices of routinisation; (iii) compare the impact of global production links on wages between workers from Western, Central-Eastern and Southern Europe; employed in manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors; (iv) account for direct and indirect dependence on GVC imports from developing and high income countries. The study takes into account the potential endogeneity issues. The  results suggest that global import intensity of production exhibits negative pressure on wages in Europe. This effect concerns mainly workers from Western Europe employed in manufacturing and is driven by production links with non-high income countries but our counterfactual estimates suggest that the effect is economically small.

scholarly journals The Impact of Control and Mitigation Strategies during the Second Wave of COVID-19 Infections in Spain and Italy

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marco De Nadai ◽  
Kristof Roomp ◽  
Bruno Lepri ◽  
Nuria Oliver
Keyword(s):  
Perceived Risk ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Protection Measures ◽  
Public Health Communication ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Second Wave

European countries struggled to fight against the second and the third waves of the COVID-19 pandemic, as the Test-Trace-Isolate (TTI) strategy widely adopted over the summer and early fall failed to effectively contain the spread of the disease. In this paper, we shed light on the effectiveness of such a strategy in two European countries (Spain and Italy) by analysing data from June to December 2020, collected via a large-scale online citizen survey with 95,251 answers in Spain and 43,393 answers in Italy. Through our analysis, we identify several weaknesses in each of the three pillars of the TTI strategy: testing, tracing and isolating. Moreover, we analyse the respondents' self-reported behaviour before and after the mitigation strategies were deployed during the second wave of infections. We find that the changes in the participants' behaviour were more pronounced in Italy than in Spain, whereas in both countries, respondents reported being very compliant with individual protection measures, such as wearing facial masks or frequently disinfecting their hands. Finally, we analyse the participants' perceptions about their government's measures and the safety of everyday activities and places regarding the risk of getting an infection. We find that the perceived risk is often gender- and age-dependent and not aligned with the risk level identified by the literature. This finding emphasises the importance of deploying public-health communication campaigns to debunk misconceptions about SARS-CoV-2. Overall, our work shows the value of online citizen surveys to quickly and cheaply collect large-scale data to support and evaluate policy decisions to contrast the spread of the disease.

scholarly journals Age-stratified model of the COVID-19 epidemic to analyze the impact of relaxing lockdown measures: nowcasting and forecasting for Switzerland

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fadoua Balabdaoui ◽  
Dirk Mohr
Keyword(s):  
Infected Individual ◽  
Compartment Model ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Modern Health Care ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
To Come ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Important Basis ◽  
Stratified Model

AbstractCompartmental models enable the analysis and prediction of an epidemic including the number of infected, hospitalized and deceased individuals in a population. They allow for computational case studies on non-pharmaceutical interventions thereby providing an important basis for policy makers. While research is ongoing on the transmission dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, it is important to come up with epidemic models that can describe the main stages of the progression of the associated COVID-19 respiratory disease. We propose an age-stratified discrete compartment model as an alternative to differential equation based S-I-R type of models. The model captures the highly age-dependent progression of COVID-19 and is able to describe the day-by-day advancement of an infected individual in a modern health care system. The fully-identified model for Switzerland not only predicts the overall histories of the number of infected, hospitalized and deceased, but also the corresponding age-distributions. The model-based analysis of the outbreak reveals an average infection fatality ratio of 0.4% with a pronounced maximum of 9.5% for those aged ≥80 years. The predictions for different scenarios of relaxing the soft lockdown indicate a low risk of overloading the hospitals through a second wave of infections. However, there is a hidden risk of a significant increase in the total fatalities (by up to 200%) in case schools reopen with insufficient containment measures in place.

scholarly journals A Cross-Sectional Survey on Medication Management Practices for Noncommunicable Diseases in Europe During the Second Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tamás Ágh ◽  
Job FM van Boven ◽  
Björn Wettermark ◽  
Enrica Menditto ◽  
Hilary Pinnock ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Management Practices ◽  
Medication Management ◽  
Nonparametric Tests ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Noncommunicable Diseases ◽  
Public Healthcare ◽  
National Guidelines ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Second Wave

Maintaining healthcare for noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) is particularly important during the COVID-19 pandemic; however, diversion of resources to acute care, and physical distancing restrictions markedly affected management of NCDs. We aimed to assess the medication management practices in place for NCDs during the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic across European countries. In December 2020, the European Network to Advance Best practices & technoLogy on medication adherencE (ENABLE) conducted a cross-sectional, web-based survey in 38 European and one non-European countries. Besides descriptive statistics of responses, nonparametric tests and generalized linear models were used to evaluate the impact on available NCD services of the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. Fifty-three collaborators from 39 countries completed the survey. In 35 (90%) countries face-to-face primary-care, and out-patient consultations were reduced during the COVID-19 pandemic. The mean ± SD number of available forms of teleconsultation services in the public healthcare system was 3 ± 1.3. Electronic prescriptions were available in 36 (92%) countries. Online ordering and home delivery of prescription medication (avoiding pharmacy visits) were available in 18 (46%) and 26 (67%) countries, respectively. In 20 (51%) countries our respondents were unaware of any national guidelines regarding maintaining medication availability for NCDs, nor advice for patients on how to ensure access to medication and adherence during the pandemic. Our results point to an urgent need for a paradigm shift in NCD-related healthcare services to assure the maintenance of chronic pharmacological treatments during COVID-19 outbreaks, as well as possible future disasters.

scholarly journals A Predictive Model for Assessing the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Economies of Some Eastern European Countries

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 92 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marina Vasiljeva ◽  
Inna Neskorodieva ◽  
Vadim Ponkratov ◽  
Nikolay Kuznetsov ◽  
Vitali Ivlev ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Eastern Europe ◽  
Predictive Model ◽  
Total Duration ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Integral Model ◽  
Eastern European ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Infected People ◽  
Eastern European Countries ◽  
The Impact

The paper seeks to develop a predictive model for assessing the impact of the (COVID-19) pandemic on the economies of Eastern Europe, taking into account quarantine measures. Functions of the dependence on the number of the infected populations in Eastern Europe on pandemic duration were calculated based on trend analysis. Factors affecting the intensity of disease and the number of infected persons have been determined. Integral model of their influence has been built using regression analysis. Based on the values of the factors, the number of infected people and the rate of infection were predicted for each of the Eastern European countries. The prognostic duration of the stage of exponential disease growth and the total duration of quarantine (epidemiological saturation point) are substantiated. The predicted decline in Eastern European GDP due to COVID-19 has been estimated based on the construction of a prognostic regression model. The results obtained can be used by state authorities and economic agents as a tool for active and preventive response. They can also serve as an example of the urgent need to develop, especially in non-standard situations, mechanisms and products of open innovation.

scholarly journals The debt buildup process: Bosnia and Herzegovina – Republic of Srpska versus other European countries // Процес стварања дуга: Босна и Херцеговина – Република Српска у односу на остале европске земље

2013 ◽  
Vol 11 (18) ◽  
pp. 33
Author(s):  
Velimir Bole ◽  
Janez Prašnikar ◽  
Domen Trobec
Keyword(s):  
European Countries ◽  
Firm Investment ◽  
The Core ◽  
Specific Effects ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
The World ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Republic ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Country Specific

Summary: Financial and economic crisis from 2008 created debt problems throughout the world, in developed and developing coutries. Although the problems cause by the crisis were similar for all coutries there were some specific diferences between them. Here, effects of firm’s indebtedness in the Republic of Srpska are analysed in comparison with 15 European countries before and after the crisis, which serve as a benchmark. In the RS and also other considered countries in the collapse year (2009), the relative debt increases of under and over median firms differed drastically. In the main crisis year of 2009 the RS had 2 percentage points higher impact (relative to the Core European countries) of the financial accelerator or/and correspondingly different effect of the shape of firm investment distribution on the debt increase. In 2009, country specific effects on the debt build-up process disappeared for all other observed countries except the RS, while in the year after the collapse they disappeared in the RS and picked upped again in all other countries, showing lagging of the impact of the crisis as well as a milder effect in the RS.Резиме: Финансијска и економска криза из 2008. године је створила проблем дуга широм свијета, како у развијеним земљама, тако и у онима у развоју. Иако су проблеми изазвани кризом били слични за све земље, постоје неке специфичне разлике између њих. Ефекти задужености фирми у Републици Српској су анализирани у поређењу са 15 европских земаља, прије и послије кризе, које служе као мјерило. У Републици Српској као и у другим посматраним земљама у години колапса (2009.) повећања релативног дуга мањих и већих фирми се драстично разликују. У главној кризној години (2009.) Република Српска  је имала за два процентна поена  већи утицај финансијског акцелератора (у односу на главне европске земље) и / или одговарајуће другачији ефекат облика дистрибуције инвестиција фирме на повећање дуга. У 2009. год специфични ефекти земље на процес стварања дуга су нестали за све посматране земље осим Републике Српске, док су у години након колапса нестали у Републици Српској, а поново се јавили у свим осталим земљама, што показује одлагање ефеката кризе, те блаже ефекте у Републици Српској.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document