Evidence for Causal Effects of Smoking Initiation and Alcohol Consumption on Substance Use Outcomes
AbstractBackground and AimsThe ‘gateway’ hypothesis proposes that initial use of drugs such as tobacco and alcohol can lead to subsequent more problematic drug use. However, it is unclear whether true casual pathways exist, or whether there is instead a shared underlying risk factor. We used bidirectional Mendelian Randomisation (MR) to test these two competing hypotheses.MethodsWe conducted two-sample MR analyses, using genome-wide association data for smoking initiation, alcoholic drinks per week, cannabis use and dependence, cocaine and opioid dependence. We used several MR methods that rely on different assumptions: inverse-variance weighted (IVW), MR-Egger, weighted median, simple mode and weighted mode. Consistent results across these methods would support stronger inference.ResultsWe found evidence of causal effects from smoking initiation to increased drinks per week (IVW: β=0.06; 95% CI 0.03 to 0.09; p-value=9.44×10-06), cannabis use (IVW: OR=1.34; 95% CI 1.24 to 1.44; p-value=1.95×10-14), and cannabis dependence (IVW: OR=1.68; 95% CI 1.12 to 2.51; p-value=0.01). We also found evidence of an effect of cannabis use on increased likelihood of smoking initiation (IVW: OR=1.39; 95% CI=1.08 to 1.80; p-value=0.01). We did not find evidence of an effect of drinks per week on substance use outcomes, except for weak evidence of an effect on cannabis use. We also found evidence of an effect of opioid dependence on increased drinks per week (IVW: β=0.002; 95% CI=0.0005 to 0.003; p-value=8.61×10-03).ConclusionsOverall, we found evidence suggesting a causal pathway from smoking initiation to alcohol consumption, and both cannabis use and dependence, which may support the gateway hypothesis. However, we also found causal effects of cannabis use on smoking initiation, and opioid dependence on alcohol consumption, which suggests the existence of a shared risk factor. Further research should explore whether this is the case, and in particular the nature of any shared risk factors.