scholarly journals Clustering of Countries for COVID-19 Cases based on Disease Prevalence, Health Systems and Environmental Indicators

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Syeda Amna Rizvi ◽  
Muhammad Umair ◽  
Muhammad Aamir Cheema
Keyword(s):  
Social Economic ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Health Indicators ◽  
Disease Prevalence ◽  
Environmental Indicators ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Pearson Product Moment Correlation ◽  
Underlying Diseases ◽  
Death Cases

ABSTRACTThe coronavirus has a high basic reproduction number (R0) and has caused the global COVID-19 pandemic. Governments are implementing lockdowns that are leading to economic fallout in many countries. Policy makers can take better decisions if provided with the indicators connected with the disease spread. This study is aimed to cluster the countries using social, economic, health and environmental related metrics affecting the disease spread so as to implement the policies to control the widespread of disease. Thus, countries with similar factors can take proactive steps to fight against the pandemic. The data is acquired for 79 countries and 18 different feature variables (the factors that are associated with COVID-19 spread) are selected. Pearson Product Moment Correlation Analysis is performed between all the feature variables with cumulative death cases and cumulative confirmed cases individually to get an insight of relation of these factors with the spread of COVID-19. Unsupervised k-means algorithm is used and the feature set includes economic, environmental indicators and disease prevalence along with COVID-19 variables. The learning model is able to group the countries into 4 clusters on the basis of relation with all 18 feature variables. We also present an analysis of correlation between the selected feature variables, and COVID-19 confirmed cases and deaths. Prevalence of underlying diseases shows strong correlation with COVID-19 whereas environmental health indicators are weakly correlated with COVID-19.

scholarly journals A warning about measurement and methodological issues associated with coronavirus tracking and evaluation across jurisdictions

2021 ◽  
Vol 47 (78) ◽  
pp. 297-299
Author(s):  
Robert Ladouceur ◽  
Howard Shaffer ◽  
Paige Shaffer ◽  
Lucie Baillargeon
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Health Indicators ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Prevention Strategies ◽  
Methodological Issues ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
The Public ◽  
Public Health Indicators ◽  
The Impact

As people around the world experience a devastating pandemic, it is critical that policy-makers consider the methodological and measurement issues that might be associated with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) public health indicators. This commentary uses four primary variables to illustrate measurement and methodological issues that can complicate comparisons between jurisdictions. Jurisdiction refers to a variety of geographic areas, such as a country, a state, or a province/territory. These variables play a critical role in determining how we understand the trajectory of disease spread. These variables also contribute to our understanding of prevention strategies and their associated efficacy, reflecting the impact of COVID-19 on hospitals. It is critical for public health stakeholders and the public to recognize that these four simple variables can vary substantially across jurisdictions.

scholarly journals Spreading of COVID-19 in Brazil: Impacts and uncertainties in social distancing strategies

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Diego T. Volpatto ◽  
Anna Claudia M. Resende ◽  
Lucas dos Anjos ◽  
João V. O. Silva ◽  
Claudia M. Dias ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Reliable Data ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Demographic Heterogeneity ◽  
Spread Dynamics ◽  
Death Cases ◽  
Specific Scenario ◽  
Limited Testing ◽  
Country Specific

AbstractBrazil’s continental dimension poses a challenge to the control of the spread of COVID-19. Due to the country specific scenario of high social and demographic heterogeneity, combined with limited testing capacity, lack of reliable data, under-reporting of cases, and restricted testing policy, the focus of this study is twofold: (i) to develop a generalized SEIRD model that implicitly takes into account the quarantine measures, and (ii) to estimate the response of the COVID-19 spread dynamics to perturbations/uncertainties. By investigating the projections of cumulative numbers of confirmed and death cases, as well as the effective reproduction number, we show that the model parameter related to social distancing measures is one of the most influential along all stages of the disease spread and the most influential after the infection peak. Due to such importance in the outcomes, different relaxation strategies of social distancing measures are investigated in order to determine which strategies are viable and less hazardous to the population. The results highlight the need of keeping social distancing policies to control the disease spread. Specifically, the considered scenario of abrupt social distancing relaxation implemented after the occurrence of the peak of positively diagnosed cases can prolong the epidemic, with a significant increase of the projected numbers of confirmed and death cases. An even worse scenario could occur if the quarantine relaxation policy is implemented before evidence of the epidemiological control, indicating the importance of the proper choice of when to start relaxing social distancing measures.

NUMERICAL AND STABILITY ANALYSIS OF THE TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS OF SVIR EPIDEMIC MODEL WITH STANDARD INCIDENCE RATE

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 349 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oluwatayo Michael Ogunmiloro ◽  
Fatima Ohunene Abedo ◽  
Hammed Kareem
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Equilibrium Solutions ◽  
Transform Method ◽  
Globally Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Differential Transform ◽  
Mathematical Techniques ◽  
Fourth Order Method ◽  
Theoretical Results

In this article, a Susceptible – Vaccinated – Infected – Recovered (SVIR) model is formulated and analysed using comprehensive mathematical techniques. The vaccination class is primarily considered as means of controlling the disease spread. The basic reproduction number (Ro) of the model is obtained, where it was shown that if Ro<1, at the model equilibrium solutions when infection is present and absent, the infection- free equilibrium is both locally and globally asymptotically stable. Also, if Ro>1, the endemic equilibrium solution is locally asymptotically stable. Furthermore, the analytical solution of the model was carried out using the Differential Transform Method (DTM) and Runge - Kutta fourth-order method. Numerical simulations were carried out to validate the theoretical results. 

Understanding Economic and Health Factors Impacting the Spread of COVID-19 Disease (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aleksandr Farseev ◽  
Yu-Yi Chu-Farseeva ◽  
Yang Qi ◽  
Daron Benjamin Loo
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Quantitative Research ◽  
Health Indicators ◽  
Initial Study ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Development Scenarios ◽  
Health Factors ◽  
Country Clusters

UNSTRUCTURED The rapid spread of the Coronavirus 2019 disease (COVID-19) had drastically impacted life all over the world. While some economies are actively recovering from this pestilence, others are experiencing fast and consistent disease spread, compelling governments to impose social distancing measures that have put a halt on routines, especially in densely-populated areas. Aiming at bringing more light on key economic and public health factors affecting the disease spread, this initial study utilizes a quantitative statistical analysis based on the most recent publicly-available COVID-19 datasets. The study had shown and explained multiple significant relationships between the COVID-19 data and other country-level statistics. We have also identified and statistically profiled four major country-level clusters with relation to different aspects of COVID-19 development and country-level economic and health indicators. Specifically, this study has identified potential COVID-19 under-reporting traits as well as various economic factors that impact COVID-19 Diagnosis, Reporting, and Treatment. Based on the country clusters, we have also described the four disease development scenarios, which are tightly knit to country-level economic and public health factors. Finally, we have highlighted the potential limitation of reporting and measuring COVID-19 and provided recommendations on further in-depth quantitative research.

scholarly journals Despite vaccination, China needs non-pharmaceutical interventions to prevent widespread outbreaks of COVID-19 in 2021

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juan Yang ◽  
Valentina Marziano ◽  
Xiaowei Deng ◽  
Giorgio Guzzetta ◽  
Juanjuan Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Synergetic Effect ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Natural Immunity ◽  
Epidemic Threshold ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Large Populations ◽  
One Year ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

AbstractCOVID-19 vaccination is being conducted in over 200 countries and regions to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission and return to a pre-pandemic lifestyle. However, understanding when non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) can be lifted as immunity builds up remains a key question for policy makers. To address this, we built a data-driven model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission for China. We estimated that, to prevent the escalation of local outbreaks to widespread epidemics, stringent NPIs need to remain in place at least one year after the start of vaccination. Should NPIs alone be capable of keeping the reproduction number (Rt) around 1.3, the synergetic effect of NPIs and vaccination could reduce the COVID-19 burden by up to 99% and bring Rt below the epidemic threshold in about 9 months. Maintaining strict NPIs throughout 2021 is of paramount importance to reduce COVID-19 burden while vaccines are distributed to the population, especially in large populations with little natural immunity.

scholarly journals The Role of Risk Preferences in Responses to Messaging About COVID-19 Vaccine Take-Up

2021 ◽  
pp. 194855062199962
Author(s):  
Jennifer S. Trueblood ◽  
Abigail B. Sussman ◽  
Daniel O’Leary
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Risk Preferences ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
Flu Vaccine ◽  
Nationally Representative

Development of an effective COVID-19 vaccine is widely considered as one of the best paths to ending the current health crisis. While the ability to distribute a vaccine in the short-term remains uncertain, the availability of a vaccine alone will not be sufficient to stop disease spread. Instead, policy makers will need to overcome the additional hurdle of rapid widespread adoption. In a large-scale nationally representative survey ( N = 34,200), the current work identifies monetary risk preferences as a correlate of take-up of an anticipated COVID-19 vaccine. A complementary experiment ( N = 1,003) leverages this insight to create effective messaging encouraging vaccine take-up. Individual differences in risk preferences moderate responses to messaging that provides benchmarks for vaccine efficacy (by comparing it to the flu vaccine), while messaging that describes pro-social benefits of vaccination (specifically herd immunity) speeds vaccine take-up irrespective of risk preferences. Findings suggest that policy makers should consider risk preferences when targeting vaccine-related communications.

scholarly journals How detection ranges and usage stops impact digital contact tracing effectiveness for COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Konstantin D. Pandl ◽  
Scott Thiebes ◽  
Manuel Schmidt-Kraepelin ◽  
Ali Sunyaev
Keyword(s):  
Disease Spread ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Behavioral Characteristics ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Detection Range ◽  
Proximity Detection ◽  
Effective Technology ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Effectiveness And Efficiency ◽  
The Impact

AbstractTo combat the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries around the globe have adopted digital contact tracing apps. Various technologies exist to trace contacts that are potentially prone to different types of tracing errors. Here, we study the impact of different proximity detection ranges on the effectiveness and efficiency of digital contact tracing apps. Furthermore, we study a usage stop effect induced by a false positive quarantine. Our results reveal that policy makers should adjust digital contact tracing apps to the behavioral characteristics of a society. Based on this, the proximity detection range should at least cover the range of a disease spread, and be much wider in certain cases. The widely used Bluetooth Low Energy protocol may not necessarily be the most effective technology for contact tracing.

scholarly journals Drought Vulnerability Indices in Mexico

Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 1671 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Ortega-Gaucin ◽  
Jesús de la Cruz Bartolón ◽  
Heidy Castellano Bahena
Keyword(s):  
Social Economic ◽  
Necessary Conditions ◽  
Environmental Indicators ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Social Programs ◽  
Drought Vulnerability ◽  
Public Programs ◽  
Analytic Procedure ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Very High

Drought is one of the most harmful hydro climatic threats to society. Mexico has been historically affected by recurring and long-lasting droughts that have severely impacted society and the economy. Consequently, public programs and policies have been developed in order to reduce the country’s vulnerability to drought, hence the importance of identifying the spatial distribution and the dimension—even in relative terms only—of vulnerability in different regions from social, economic, and environmental perspectives. This article presents a method for obtaining indices and maps of vulnerability to drought in Mexico; indices and maps are based on a set of socioeconomic and environmental indicators that the method combines using an objective analytic procedure that identifies the most vulnerable states and municipalities from social, economic, and environmental perspectives, all of which converge in overall vulnerability to drought. The results obtained indicate that 38.9% of total Mexican population inhabits municipalities with high and very high degrees of overall vulnerability to drought. For this reason, it is necessary to continue implementing actions and preventive and mitigation strategies via public policies and social programs aimed at decreasing the country’s vulnerability to the occurrence of drought events. This is the only way to facilitate the necessary conditions to reduce the impact of drought and to decrease people’s vulnerability to this phenomenon.

The Angler in the Environment: Social, Economic, Biological, and Ethical Dimensions

2011 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Social Economic ◽  
Survey Methods ◽  
Scientific Meeting ◽  
Recreational Fishing ◽  
Recreational Fisheries ◽  
Management Tools ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
The World ◽  
Biological Management

<i>Abstract</i> .—The World Recreational Fishing Conference represents the only scientific meeting that is truly global, attracting scientists, managers, industry representatives, policy makers, and other stakeholders to discuss pertinent issues in recreational fisheries. The Fifth World Recreational Fishing Conference was held in Dania Beach, Florida, on November 10–12, 2008. This book represents the peer-reviewed proceedings of the landmark conference. Chapters in this book cover a range of issues such as governance, social and biological management tools and issues, ethics, and novel survey methods to advance the science and management of recreational fisheries.

scholarly journals Drivers of Dry Common Beans Trade in Lusaka, Zambia: A Trader’s Perspective

2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy Sichilima ◽  
Lawrence Mapemba ◽  
Gelson Tembo
Keyword(s):  
Grain Size ◽  
Common Bean ◽  
Social Economic ◽  
Market Price ◽  
Hedonic Pricing ◽  
Common Beans ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
The Social ◽  
Varietal Development ◽  
Market Sample

<p>This study was designed to analyze drivers of dry common beans trade in Lusaka, Zambia. Specifically, the study analyzed the effect of common bean grain characteristics on bean market price. Data was collected using structured questionnaires from 225 traders stationed in three markets namely: Soweto, Chilenje and Mtendere.</p>Using hedonic pricing, the findings reveal that medium sized grain was an important characteristic which significantly affected the pricing of common bean. For instance, it was observed that medium grain size fetched ZMW1.266 per kilogram (kg) and ZMW 1.042 per kg more than grains of smaller size in the pooled and Soweto market sample, respectively. It was further revealed that yellow, yellow and white color significantly affected the bean price received by traders. Other factors which significantly affected the pricing of beans included age of the trader, being a retail trader and trading at Chilenje market. Given these findings, common bean breeders need to include traders and consumers as important actors whose knowledge can make resourceful impact in varietal development. Furthermore, interventions by policy makers that respond to the social economic needs of traders is recommended to improve bean trade.

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