scholarly journals Quantifying the Benefits of Targeting for Pandemic Response

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergio Camelo ◽  
Dragos F. Ciocan ◽  
Dan A. Iancu ◽  
Xavier S. Warnes ◽  
Spyros I. Zoumpoulis
Keyword(s):  
Economic Value ◽  
Population Group ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Social Contacts ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Flexible Modeling ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
The Impact

To respond to pandemics such as COVID-19, policy makers have relied on interventions that target specific population groups or activities. Such targeting is potentially contentious, so rigorously quantifying its benefits and downsides is critical for designing effective and equitable pandemic control policies. We propose a flexible modeling framework and a set of associated algorithms that compute optimally targeted, time-dependent interventions that coordinate across two dimensions of heterogeneity: population group characteristics and the specific activities that individuals engage in during the normal course of a day. We showcase a complete implementation in a case study focused on the Île-de-France region of France, based on commonly available hospitalization, community mobility, social contacts and economic data. We find that optimized dual-targeted policies have a simple and explainable structure, imposing less confinement on group-activity pairs that generate a relatively high economic value prorated by activity-specific social contacts. When compared to confinements based on uniform or less granular targeting, dual-targeted policies generate substantial complementarities that lead to Pareto improvements, reducing the number of deaths and the economic losses overall and reducing the time in confinement foreach population group. Since dual-targeted policies could lead to increased discrepancies in the confinements faced by distinct groups, we also quantify the impact of requirements that explicitly limit such disparities, and find that satisfactory intermediate trade-offs may be achievable through limited targeting.

Empowering Women Entrepreneurs Through Microfinance - A Case of Rural Bangladesh

2017 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 7
Author(s):  
Saida Parvin
Keyword(s):  
Women's Empowerment ◽  
Assessment Tools ◽  
Women’S Empowerment ◽  
Case Study Method ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Theoretical Contribution ◽  
Donor Agencies ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
The Impact

Women’s empowerment has been at the centre of research focus for many decades. Extant literature examined the process, outcome and various challenges. Some claimed substantial success, while others contradicted with evidence of failure. But the success remains a matter of debate due to lack of empirical evidence of actual empowerment of women around the world. The current study aimed to address this gap by taking a case study method. The study critically evaluates 20 cases carefully sampled to include representatives from the entire country of Bangladesh. The study demonstrates popular beliefs about microfinance often misguide even the borrowers and they start living in a fabricated feeling of empowerment, facing real challenges to achieve true empowerment in their lives. The impact of this finding is twofold; firstly there is a theoretical contribution, where the definition of women’s empowerment is proposed to be revisited considering findings from these cases. And lastly, the policy makers at governmental and non-governmental organisations, and multinational donor agencies need to revise their assessment tools for funding.

An Analytical Approach to Cruise Tourism As an Option For Development: a Case Study of the Sultanate of Oman

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 95-109
Author(s):  
Heba Aziz ◽  
Osman El-Said ◽  
Marike Bontenbal
Keyword(s):  
Capital City ◽  
Sultanate Of Oman ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Cruise Tourism ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Average Expenditure ◽  
Return Intention

The objective of this study was to measure the level of cruise tourists' satisfaction as well as the relationship between satisfaction, recommendation, return intention, and expenditure. Also, the impact of factors such as nationality, length of the visit, and age on the level of expenditure was measured. An empirical approach for data collection was followed and a total of 152 questionnaires were collected from cruise tourists visiting the capital city of Oman, Muscat, as cruise liners anchor at Sultan Qaboos Port. Results of the regression analysis supported the existence of a causal relationship between satisfaction with destination attributes, overall satisfaction, recommendation, return intention, and expenditure. It was found that the average expenditure varies according to age and length of the visit. Recommendations for policy makers were suggested on how to increase the role of cruise tourism in strengthening the economy.

scholarly journals Comparison of two individual-based model simulators for HIV epidemiology in a population with HSV-2 using as case study Yaoundé-Cameroon, 1980-2005

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Diana M Hendrickx ◽  
João Dinis Sousa ◽  
Pieter J.K. Libin ◽  
Wim Delva ◽  
Jori Liesenborgs ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Model Complexity ◽  
Individual Based Model ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Basic Model ◽  
Hiv Epidemiology ◽  
Hiv Epidemic ◽  
Simplex Virus ◽  
Evidence For Policy ◽  
The Impact

ABSTRACTModel comparisons have been widely used to guide intervention strategies to control infectious diseases. Agreement between different models is crucial for providing robust evidence for policy-makers because differences in model properties can influence their predictions. In this study, we compared models implemented by two individual-based model simulators for HIV epidemiology in a population with Herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2). For each model simulator, we constructed four models, starting from a simplified basic model and stepwise including more model complexity. For the resulting eight models, the predictions of the impact of behavioural interventions on the HIV epidemic in Yaoundé (Cameroon) were compared. The results show that differences in model assumptions and model complexity can influence the size of the predicted impact of the intervention, as well as the predicted qualitative behaviour of the HIV epidemic after the intervention. Moreover, two models that agree in their predictions of the HIV epidemic in the absence of intervention can have different outputs when predicting the impact of interventions. Without additional data, it is impossible to determine which of these two models is the most reliable. These findings highlight the importance of making more data available for the calibration and validation of epidemiological models.

scholarly journals Analysis of Emergency Evacuation Modal Choice Behavior with Spatial Indicators: Case Study in Xi’an, China

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (24) ◽  
pp. 7023
Author(s):  
Zhihao Duan ◽  
Jinliang Xu ◽  
Han Ru ◽  
Yaping Dong ◽  
Xingliang Liu
Keyword(s):  
Choice Behavior ◽  
Multinomial Logit Model ◽  
Emergency Evacuation ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Effective Measure ◽  
Modal Choice ◽  
Emergency Events ◽  
Spatial Indicators ◽  
The Impact

To reduce the impact of a natural or man-made disaster, an evacuation is often implemented to transfer the population in the potentially impacted area to a safe zone. Evacuation is an effective measure for dealing with emergency events. This paper presents a multinomial logit model for modal choice behavior in a short-notice emergency evacuation, which incorporates spatial indicators into the utility function. The study examined the determinants of evacuees’ modal choice for three evacuation distances and analyzed determinants impacting the mechanism of the modal choice decision process. The data collected in Xi’an was used to provide empirical evidence for the relationship between spatial indicators and modal choice behavior. The findings of this study will help emergency planners and policy-makers develop strategies for evacuation planning and will enable a better understanding of emergency modal choice behaviors.

Preliminary Design and Performance of Counter Rotating Turbines for Open Rotors: Part II — 0-D Methodology and Case Study for a 160 PAX Aircraft

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pablo Bellocq ◽  
Inaki Garmendia ◽  
Jordane Legrand ◽  
Vishal Sethi
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
Design Space Exploration ◽  
Design Space ◽  
Space Exploration ◽  
Preliminary Design ◽  
Regulatory Constraints ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
And Performance ◽  
The Impact

Direct Drive Open Rotors (DDORs) have the potential to significantly reduce fuel consumption and emissions relative to conventional turbofans. However, this engine architecture presents many design and operational challenges both at engine and aircraft level. At preliminary design stages, a broad design space exploration is required to identify potential optimum design regions and to understand the main trade offs of this novel engine architecture. These assessments may also aid the development process when compromises need to be performed as a consequence of design, operational or regulatory constraints. Design space exploration assessments are done with 0-D or 1-D models for computational purposes. These simplified 0-D and 1-D models have to capture the impact of the independent variation of the main design and control variables of the engine. Historically, it appears that for preliminary design studies of DDORs, Counter Rotating Turbines (CRTs) have been modelled as conventional turbines and therefore it was not possible to assess the impact of the variation of the number of stages (Nb) of the CRT and rotational speed of the propellers. Additionally, no preliminary design methodology for CRTs was found in the public domain. Part I of this two-part publication proposes a 1-D preliminary design methodology for DDOR CRTs which allows an independent definition of both parts of the CRT. A method for calculating the off-design performance of a known CRT design is also described. In Part II, a 0-D design point efficiency calculation for CRTs is proposed and verified with the 1-D methods. The 1-D and 0-D CRT models were used in an engine control and design space exploration case study of a DDOR with a 4.26m diameter an 10% clipped propeller for a 160 PAX aircraft. For this application: • the design and performance of a 20 stage CRT rotating at 860 rpm (both drums) obtained with the 1-D methods is presented. • differently from geared open rotors, negligible cruise fuel savings can be achieved by an advanced propeller control. • for rotational speeds between 750 and 880 rpm (relatively low speeds for reduced noise), 22 and 20 stages CRTs are required. • engine weight can be kept constant for different design rotational speeds by using the minimum required Nb. • for any target engine weight, TOC and cruise SFC are reduced by reducing the rotational speeds and increasing Nb (also favourable for reducing CRP noise). However additional CRT stages increase engine drag, mechanical complexity and cost.

What value do mangroves have in reducing the cost of storm surges?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher Thomas ◽  
Siddharth Narayan ◽  
Joss Matthewman ◽  
Christine Shepard ◽  
Laura Geselbracht ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Storm Surge ◽  
Insurance Industry ◽  
Economic Value ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Coastal Flooding ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Modelling Framework ◽  
Catastrophe Modelling ◽  
The Cost ◽  
The Impact

<p>With coastlines becoming increasingly urbanised worldwide, the economic risk posed by storm surges to coastal communities has never been greater. Given the financial and ecological costs of manmade coastal defences, the past few years have seen growing interest in the effectiveness of natural coastal “defences” in reducing the risk of flooding to coastal properties, but estimating their actual economic value in reducing storm surge risk remains a challenging subject.</p><p>In this study, we estimate the value of mangroves in reducing annual losses to property from storm surges along a large stretch of coastline in Florida (USA), by employing a catastrophe modelling approach widely used in the insurance industry. We use a hydrodynamic coastal flood model coupled to a property loss model and a large property exposure dataset to estimate annual economic losses from hurricane-driven storm surges in Collier County, a hurricane-prone part of Florida. We then estimate the impact that removing mangroves in the region would have on average annual losses (AAL) caused by coastal flooding. We find that mangroves reduce AAL to properties behind them by over 25%, and that these benefits are distributed very heterogeneously along the coastline. Mangrove presence can also act to enhance the storm surge risk in areas where development has occurred seaward of mangroves.</p><p>In addition to looking at annual losses, we also focus on the storm surge caused by a specific severe event in Florida, based on Hurricane Irma (2017), and we estimate that existing mangroves reduced economic property damage by hundreds of millions of USD, and reduced coastal flooding for hundreds of thousands of people.</p><p>Together these studies aim to financially quantify some of the risk reduction services provided by natural defences in terms of reducing the cost of coastal flooding, and show that these services can be included in a catastrophe modelling framework commonly used in the insurance industry.</p>

scholarly journals Temporal changes in greenspace in a highly urbanized region

2011 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
pp. 763-766 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Dallimer ◽  
Zhiyao Tang ◽  
Peter R. Bibby ◽  
Paul Brindley ◽  
Kevin J. Gaston ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
National Level ◽  
Urban Land Use ◽  
Policy Reforms ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Dramatic Shift ◽  
Urbanized Region ◽  
The Impact

The majority of the world's population now lives in towns and cities, and urban areas are expanding faster than any other land-use type. In response to this phenomenon, two opposing arguments have emerged: whether cities should ‘sprawl’ into the wider countryside, or ‘densify’ through the development of existing urban greenspace. However, these greenspaces are increasingly recognized as being central to the amelioration of urban living conditions, supporting biodiversity conservation and ecosystem service provision. Taking the highly urbanized region of England as a case study, we use data from a variety of sources to investigate the impact of national-level planning policy on temporal patterns in the extent of greenspace in cities. Between 1991 and 2006, greenspace showed a net increase in all but one of 13 cities. However, the majority of this gain occurred prior to 2001, and greenspace has subsequently declined in nine cities. Such a dramatic shift in land use coincides with policy reforms in 2000, which favoured densification. Here, we illustrate the dynamic and policy-responsive nature of urban land use, thereby highlighting the need for a detailed investigation of the trade-offs associated with different mechanisms of urban densification to optimize and secure the diverse benefits associated with greenspaces.

scholarly journals Simulation of storm surge inundation under different typhoon intensity scenarios: case study of Pingyang County, China

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (10) ◽  
pp. 2777-2790
Author(s):  
Xianwu Shi ◽  
Pubing Yu ◽  
Zhixing Guo ◽  
Zhilin Sun ◽  
Fuyuan Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Storm Surge ◽  
Water Depth ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Astronomical Tide ◽  
Evacuation Plans ◽  
Typhoon Intensity ◽  
Typhoon Tracks ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. China is one of the countries that is most seriously affected by storm surges. In recent years, storm surges in coastal areas of China have caused huge economic losses and a large number of human casualties. Knowledge of the inundation range and water depth of storm surges under different typhoon intensities could assist predisaster risk assessment and making evacuation plans, as well as provide decision support for responding to storm surges. Taking Pingyang County in Zhejiang Province as a case study area, parameters including typhoon tracks, radius of maximum wind speed, astronomical tide, and upstream flood runoff were determined for different typhoon intensities. Numerical simulations were conducted using these parameters to investigate the inundation range and water depth distribution of storm surges in Pingyang County considering the impact of seawall collapse under five different intensity scenarios (corresponding to minimum central pressure values equal to 915, 925, 935, 945, and 965 hPa). The inundated area ranged from 103.51 to 233.16 km2 for the most intense typhoon. The proposed method could be easily adopted in various coastal counties and serves as an effective tool for decision-making in storm surge disaster risk reduction practices.

scholarly journals Predicting Dynamic Patterns of Short-Term Movement

2019 ◽  
Vol 34 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. S26-S34
Author(s):  
Sveta Milusheva
Keyword(s):  
Predictive Modeling ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Mobile Phone Data ◽  
Population Movement ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Important Health ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Short-term human mobility has important health consequences, but measuring short-term movement using survey data is difficult and costly, and use of mobile phone data to study short-term movement is only possible in locations that can access the data. Combining several accessible data sources, Senegal is used as a case study to predict short-term movement within the country. The focus is on two main drivers of movement—economic and social—which explain almost 70 percent of the variation in short-term movement. Comparing real and predicted short-term movement to measure the impact of population movement on the spread of malaria in Senegal, the predictions generated by the model provide estimates for the effect that are not significantly different from the estimates using the real data. Given that the data used in this paper are often accessible in other country settings, this paper demonstrates how predictive modeling can be used by policy makers to estimate short-term mobility.

The Impact of Perceptions of Tribalism and Ethnicity on Public Administration in South Africa: A Case Study of the Vuwani in the Vhembe District

Politeia ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mavhungu Elias Musitha ◽  
Mavhungu Abel Mafukata
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Public Administration ◽  
Ethnic Disparities ◽  
Primary Data ◽  
National Unity ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Local Municipality ◽  
Vhembe District ◽  
The Impact

This study investigated the impact of perceptions of ethnicity and tribalism on public administration in South Africa with reference to the protests of Vuwani communities in 2016 against their area being re-demarcated to fall under the LIM 345 municipality (later named the Collins Chabane Local Municipality) dominated by Xitsonga speakers. The study adopted qualitative and exploration designs and used a literature review and key informant interviews in order to obtain secondary and primary data respectively. This study revealed that Vuwani communities feared domination by the Xitsonga-speaking majority in the proposed new municipality. The council of the proposed new municipality consisted of 72 councillors, 74 per cent of which were Xitsonga-speaking councillors and a mere 26 per cent were Tshivenda-speaking councillors. It also found that perceptions of ethnicity and tribalism in Vuwani had rendered public administration ineffective, thus bringing service delivery to a halt for several months. The study recommended that policy-makers should abolish majority representation based solely on regionalism and should seek to forge national unity. It concluded that the establishment of public institutions based on ethnic homogeneity had the potential of bringing about peace and stability in areas characterised by ethnic disparities.

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