scholarly journals Beech tree masting explains the inter-annual variation in the fall and spring peaks of Ixodes ricinus ticks with different time lags

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cindy Bregnard ◽  
Olivier Rais ◽  
Coralie Herrmann ◽  
Olaf Kahl ◽  
Katharina Brugger ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Lyme Borreliosis ◽  
Ixodes Ricinus ◽  
Annual Variation ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
Direct Development ◽  
Time Lags ◽  
Nymphal Stage ◽  
Lower Elevation ◽  
Beech Tree

Background: The tick Ixodes ricinus is an important vector of tick-borne diseases including Lyme borreliosis. In continental Europe, the nymphal stage of I. ricinus often has a bimodal phenology with a large spring/early summer peak and a smaller fall peak. While there is consensus about the origin of the spring nymphal peak, there are two alternative hypotheses for the fall nymphal peak, direct development versus delayed diapause. These two hypotheses make different predictions about the time lags of the correlations between the spring peak, the fall peak, and seed production (masting) by deciduous trees. Methods: To determine which hypothesis is most important for explaining the fall peak, we used data from a long-term surveillance study (15 years) on the density of I. ricinus nymphal ticks at 4 different elevation sites in an area of Switzerland that is endemic for Lyme borreliosis, and long-term data on the mast of the European beech tree from the literature. Results: I. ricinus nymphs had a bimodal phenology at the three lower elevation sites, but a unimodal phenology at the top elevation site. At the lower elevation sites, the density of nymphs (DON) in the fall was strongly correlated with the DON in the spring of the following year. The inter-annual variation in the densities of I. ricinus nymphs in the fall and spring were best explained by a 1-year versus a 2-year time lag with the beech tree masting index. Fall nymphs had higher fat content and are younger than spring nymphs. All of these observations are consistent with the direct development hypothesis for the fall peak of I. ricinus nymphs at our study site. Our study provides new insight into the complex bimodal phenology of this important disease vector. Conclusions: Public health officials in Europe should be aware that following a strong mast year, the DON will increase 1 year later in the fall and 2 years later in the spring and summer. Population ecology studies of I. ricinus should consider that the spring and fall peak in the same calendar year represent different generations of ticks.

scholarly journals Long-term changes in hydrographic conditions in northern Adriatic and its relationship to hydrological and atmospheric processes

2004 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 733-745 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Supić ◽  
B. Grbec ◽  
I. Vilibić ◽  
I. Ivančić
Keyword(s):  
Discharge Rate ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Time Lags ◽  
Po River ◽  
Northern Adriatic ◽  
Nao Index ◽  
Mediterranean Oscillation ◽  
Yearly Means

Abstract. A very long data series (1921–2000) of hydrographic parameters (temperature, salinity and density) collected in surface and bottom layers at a station in the coastal zone in the northeastern Adriatic was analyzed. Seasonal and interannual variability of the three parameters is described on the basis of monthly and yearly averages. The seasonal cycles obtained were found to be typical for the northern Adriatic. Interannual analysis showed that there was no trend in temperature, salinity and density in the region during the interval analyzed. The long-term series of yearly means of hydrographic parameters were related to the long-term series of yearly means of several hydrological/atmospheric parameters using different time lags of between 0 and 4 years. These parameters are surface heat flux gained by insolation Qs computed for Trieste, precipitation P in Trieste, Po River discharge rate R and two atmospheric oscillation indexes, a Mediterranean Oscillation (MO) index and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. At zero time lag the interannual changes at the surface were found to be significantly related to changes in the Qs and NAO index (temperature) and R (salinity and density). At the same time lag the changes in the bottom were found to be related to the MO index (temperature, salinity and density). Additionally, bottom salinity and density were significantly related to R at a time lag of 1 year. Key words. Oceanography: Physical (air-sea interactions; hydrography)

scholarly journals Masting by beech trees predicts the risk of Lyme disease

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Cindy Bregnard ◽  
Olivier Rais ◽  
Maarten Jeroen Voordouw
Keyword(s):  
Seed Production ◽  
Lyme Borreliosis ◽  
Pathogen Detection ◽  
Annual Variation ◽  
Ecological Factors ◽  
Deciduous Trees ◽  
Infection Prevalence ◽  
Hard Tick ◽  
Beech Tree ◽  
The Mean

Abstract Background The incidence of Lyme borreliosis and other tick-borne diseases is increasing in Europe and North America. There is currently much interest in identifying the ecological factors that determine the density of infected ticks as this variable determines the risk of Lyme borreliosis to vertebrate hosts, including humans. Lyme borreliosis is caused by the bacterium Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato (s.l.) and in western Europe, the hard tick Ixodes ricinus is the most important vector. Methods Over a 15-year period (2004–2018), we monitored the monthly abundance of I. ricinus ticks (nymphs and adults) and their B. burgdorferi s.l. infection status at four different elevations on a mountain in western Switzerland. We collected climate variables in the field and from nearby weather stations. We obtained data on beech tree seed production (masting) from the literature, as the abundance of Ixodes nymphs can increase dramatically 2 years after a masting event. We used generalized linear mixed effects models and AIC-based model selection to identify the ecological factors that influence inter-annual variation in the nymphal infection prevalence (NIP) and the density of infected nymphs (DIN). Results We found that the NIP decreased by 78% over the study period. Inter-annual variation in the NIP was explained by the mean precipitation in the present year, and the duration that the DNA extraction was stored in the freezer prior to pathogen detection. The DIN decreased over the study period at all four elevation sites, and the decrease was significant at the top elevation. Inter-annual variation in the DIN was best explained by elevation site, year, beech tree masting index 2 years prior and the mean relative humidity in the present year. This is the first study in Europe to demonstrate that seed production by deciduous trees influences the density of nymphs infected with B. burgdorferi s.l. and hence the risk of Lyme borreliosis. Conclusions Public health officials in Europe should be aware that masting by deciduous trees is an important predictor of the risk of Lyme borreliosis.

The Relative Effects of Constructive, Laissez-Faire, and Tyrannical Leadership on Subordinate Job Satisfaction

2014 ◽  
Vol 222 (4) ◽  
pp. 221-232 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anders Skogstad ◽  
Merethe Schanke Aasland ◽  
Morten Birkeland Nielsen ◽  
Jørn Hetland ◽  
Stig Berge Matthiesen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Job Satisfaction ◽  
Leadership Behaviors ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
Relative Influence ◽  
Time Lags ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Perceived Leadership ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Laissez Faire

Knowledge on short and long-term effects of perceived leadership behaviors on subordinates’ job satisfaction, and particularly so regarding the relative influences of constructive and destructive forms of leadership, is scarce. Based on two prospective and representative surveys, with time lags of 6 months (Study 1) and 2 years (Study 2), respectively, we investigated the relative influence of constructive, laissez-faire, and tyrannical leadership behaviors, respectively, on followers job satisfaction. Interestingly, destructive forms of leadership were the sole significant predictors in both studies. Tyrannical leadership predicted a decrease in subordinate job satisfaction over a 6-month period, while laissez-faire leadership turned out as the sole predictor of job satisfaction over a 2-year time lag. A reversed relationship was found between job satisfaction and subsequent perceived constructive leadership over the 6-month lag. Dissatisfied subordinates did not, however, report increased exposure to destructive forms of leadership, disconfirming the gloomy perception mechanism of dissatisfied and stressed subordinates to perceive their leaders in an ever more negative way. Hence, destructive forms of leadership seem to be better predictors of job satisfaction than are constructive forms of leadership which is in line with the notion that “bad is stronger than good.”

scholarly journals Long-term variability of Swift J1753.5−0127: X-ray spectral–temporal correlations during state transitions

2019 ◽  
Vol 487 (1) ◽  
pp. 1439-1446
Author(s):  
Qingcui Bu ◽  
Lian Tao ◽  
Yu Lu ◽  
Shuangnan Zhang ◽  
Liang Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Black Hole ◽  
Intermediate State ◽  
State Transition ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
Periodic Oscillation ◽  
State Transitions ◽  
Time Lags ◽  
X Ray ◽  
Hard State

ABSTRACT We studied the long-term evolution of the spectral–temporal correlated properties of the black hole candidate Swift J1753.5−0127 from the onset of its outburst until 2011 with the Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer (RXTE). The source stayed most of its lifetime during hard state, with occasionally transitioned to the hard intermediate state. Similar to typical black hole transients, Swift J1753.5−0127 traces a clear hard line in absolute rms–intensity diagram during the low hard state, with expected highest absolute rms, while shows a clear turn during the hard intermediate state, accompanied by lower absolute rms. Different from Cyg X-1, we found that frequency-dependent time lag increased significantly in the 0.02–3.2 Hz band during state transition in this source. The X-ray time lags in 0.02–3.2 Hz can therefore be used as indicators of state transition in this source. Type-C quasi-periodic oscillation frequency is positively related with its fractional rms and X-ray photon index, suggesting a moving inwards disc/corona scenario. We discussed the physical interpretation of our results in this paper.

Epidemiological Evidence that Maternal Influenza Contributes to the Aetiology of Schizophrenia

1993 ◽  
Vol 163 (4) ◽  
pp. 522-534 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. Adams ◽  
R. E. Kendell ◽  
E. H. Hare ◽  
P. Munk-Jørgensen
Keyword(s):  
Data Sets ◽  
Time Lags ◽  
Epidemiological Evidence ◽  
Intrauterine Development ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Schizophrenic Patients ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Monthly Incidence ◽  
Maternal Influenza

The epidemiological evidence that the offspring of women exposed to influenza in pregnancy are at increased risk of schizophrenia is conflicting. In an attempt to clarify the issue we explored the relationship between the monthly incidence of influenza (and measles) in the general population and the distribution of birth dates of three large series of schizophrenic patients - 16 960 Scottish patients born in 1932–60; 22 021 English patients born in 1921–60; and 18 723 Danish patients born in 1911–65. Exposure to the 1957 epidemic of A2 influenza in midpregnancy was associated with an increased incidence of schizophrenia, at least in females, in all three data sets. We also confirmed the previous report of a statistically significant long-term relationship between patients' birth dates and outbreaks of influenza in the English series, with time lags of - 2 and - 3 months (the sixth and seventh months of pregnancy). Despite several other negative studies by ourselves and others we conclude that these relationships are probably both genuine and causal; and that maternal influenza during the middle third of intrauterine development, or something closely associated with it, is implicated in the aetiology of some cases of schizophrenia.

scholarly journals In Vitro Model of Mycobacterial Growth Arrest Using Nitric Oxide with Limited Air

2008 ◽  
Vol 53 (1) ◽  
pp. 157-161 ◽  
Author(s):  
Syed Hussain ◽  
Muhammad Malik ◽  
Lanbo Shi ◽  
Maria Laura Gennaro ◽  
Karl Drlica
Keyword(s):  
Nitric Oxide ◽  
In Vitro Model ◽  
Transition Period ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
Growth Arrest ◽  
Ring Structure ◽  
Time Lags ◽  
Vitro Model ◽  
Mycobacterial Growth

ABSTRACT An in vitro model of mycobacterial growth arrest was developed using Mycobacterium bovis BCG. When an exponentially growing culture was transferred to an evacuated tube, growth continued; treatment with a source of nitric oxide (diethylenetriamine-nitric oxide adduct [DETA-NO] at 50 μM) halted growth immediately, and aeration restored growth. When the period of growth arrest exceeded 4 h, a time lag occurred before aeration could restore growth. The lag time was maximal (24 h) after 16 h of growth arrest. These time lags indicated that one transition period was required for cells to achieve full arrest of growth and another for them to recover fully from growth arrest. DETA-NO-induced growth arrest failed to protect from the lethal effects of anaerobic shock, which caused rapid lysis of both growing and growth-arrested cells. While growth arrest had little effect on the lethal action of rifampin, it eliminated isoniazid lethality. Growth arrest reduced but did not eliminate fluoroquinolone lethality. Two fluoroquinolones, moxifloxacin and gatifloxacin, were equally lethal to exponentially growing cells, but moxifloxacin was more active during growth arrest. This difference is attributed to the fluoroquinolone C-7 ring structure, the only difference between the compounds. Collectively these data characterize a new system for halting mycobacterial growth that may be useful for evaluating new antituberculosis agents.

scholarly journals Rodent host population dynamics drive zoonotic Lyme Borreliosis and Orthohantavirus infections in humans in Northern Europe

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mahdi Aminikhah ◽  
Jukka T. Forsman ◽  
Esa Koskela ◽  
Tapio Mappes ◽  
Jussi Sane ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Lyme Borreliosis ◽  
Bank Vole ◽  
Myodes Glareolus ◽  
Northern Europe ◽  
Time Lags ◽  
Rodent Population ◽  
Vole Cycles ◽  
Infection Dynamics ◽  
Abundance Fluctuations

AbstractZoonotic diseases, caused by pathogens transmitted between other vertebrate animals and humans, pose a major risk to human health. Rodents are important reservoir hosts for many zoonotic pathogens, and rodent population dynamics affect the infection dynamics of rodent-borne diseases, such as diseases caused by hantaviruses. However, the role of rodent population dynamics in determining the infection dynamics of rodent-associated tick-borne diseases, such as Lyme borreliosis (LB), caused by Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato bacteria, have gained limited attention in Northern Europe, despite the multiannual abundance fluctuations, the so-called vole cycles, that characterise rodent population dynamics in the region. Here, we quantify the associations between rodent abundance and LB human cases and Puumala Orthohantavirus (PUUV) infections by using two time series (25-year and 9-year) in Finland. Both bank vole (Myodes glareolus) abundance as well as LB and PUUV infection incidence in humans showed approximately 3-year cycles. Without vector transmitted PUUV infections followed the bank vole host abundance fluctuations with two-month time lag, whereas tick-transmitted LB was associated with bank vole abundance ca. 12 and 24 months earlier. However, the strength of association between LB incidence and bank vole abundance ca. 12 months before varied over the study years. This study highlights that the human risk to acquire rodent-borne pathogens, as well as rodent-associated tick-borne pathogens is associated with the vole cycles in Northern Fennoscandia, yet with complex time lags.

IRREVERSIBLE INVESTMENT, OPERATING FLEXIBILITY, AND TIME LAGS

2010 ◽  
Vol 27 (02) ◽  
pp. 271-286 ◽  
Author(s):  
RYUTA TAKASHIMA ◽  
MAKOTO GOTO ◽  
MOTOH TSUJIMURA
Keyword(s):  
Time Lag ◽  
Peak Load ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Optimal Investment ◽  
Capacity Expansion ◽  
Fixed Cost ◽  
Time Lags ◽  
Investment Timing ◽  
Power Company ◽  
Optimal Investment Problem

We consider an optimal investment problem when a firm such as an electric power company has the operational flexibility to expand and contract capacity with fixed cost. This problem is formulated as an impulse control problem combined with optimal stopping. Consequently, we obtain optimal investment timing, optimal capacity expansion and contraction timing, and the investment value. We also show investment, capacity expansion and contraction rule are influenced by the price volatility and the initial capacity is also influenced by the ratio between base-load plant and peak-load plant. In addition, we investigate how time lag between investment and operation influences the investment rule.

scholarly journals Reconciling Lagrangian Diffusivity and Effective Diffusivity in Contour-Based Coordinates

2019 ◽  
Vol 49 (6) ◽  
pp. 1521-1539
Author(s):  
Yu-Kun Qian ◽  
Shiqiu Peng ◽  
Chang-Xia Liang
Keyword(s):  
Time Lag ◽  
Effective Diffusivity ◽  
Delta Function ◽  
Spreading Rate ◽  
Particle Dispersion ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Time Lags ◽  
Conservative Tracer ◽  
Stirring Effect ◽  
Short Time

AbstractThe present study reconciles theoretical differences between the Lagrangian diffusivity and effective diffusivity in a transformed spatial coordinate based on the contours of a quasi-conservative tracer. In the transformed coordinate, any adiabatic stirring effect, such as shear-induced dispersion, is naturally isolated from diabatic cross-contour motions. Therefore, Lagrangian particle motions in the transformed coordinate obey a transformed zeroth-order stochastic (i.e., random walk) model with the diffusivity replaced by the effective diffusivity. Such a stochastic model becomes the theoretical foundation on which both diffusivities are exactly unified. In the absence of small-scale diffusion, particles do not disperse at all in the transformed contour coordinate. Besides, the corresponding Lagrangian autocorrelation becomes a delta function and is thus free from pronounced overshoot and negative lobe at short time lags that may be induced by either Rossby waves or mesoscale eddies; that is, particles decorrelate immediately and Lagrangian diffusivity is already asymptotic no matter how small the time lag is. The resulting instantaneous Lagrangian spreading rate is thus conceptually identical to the effective diffusivity that only measures the instantaneous irreversible mixing. In these regards, the present study provides a new look at particle dispersion in contour-based coordinates.

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