scholarly journals Vaccination and three non-pharmaceutical interventions determine the end of COVID-19 at 381 metropolitan statistical areas in the US

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
LU ZHONG ◽  
Mamadou Diagne ◽  
Qi Wang ◽  
Jianxi Gao
Keyword(s):  
Vaccine Coverage ◽  
Face Mask ◽  
Analytical Framework ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Metropolitan Statistical Areas ◽  
Input Signals ◽  
The Us ◽  
Manageable Level ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

The rapid rollout of the COVID-19 vaccine global raises the question of whether and when the ongoing pandemic could be eliminated with vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Despite advances in the impact of NPIs and the conceptual belief that NPIs and vaccination control COVID-19 infections, we lack evidence to employ control theory in real-world social human dynamics in the context of disease spreading. We bridge the gap by developing a new analytical framework that treats COVID-19 as a feedback control system with the NPIs and vaccination as the controllers and a computational and mathematical model that maps human social behaviors to input signals. This approach enables us to effectively predict the epidemic spreading in 381 Metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in the US by learning our model parameters utilizing the time series NPIs (i.e., the stay-at-home order, face-mask wearing, and testing) data. This model allows us to optimally identify three NPIs to predict infections actually in 381 MSAs and avoid overfitting. Our numerical results universally demonstrate our approach's excellent predictive power with R2>0.9 of all the MSAs regardless of their sizes, locations, and demographic status. Our methodology allows us to estimate the needed vaccine coverage and NPIs for achieving Re to the manageable level and the required days for disease elimination at each location. Our analytical results provide insights into the debates on the aims for eliminating COVID-19. NPIs, if tailored to the MSAs, can drive the pandemic to an easily containable level and suppress future recurrences of epidemic cycles.

scholarly journals The impact of face masks on interpersonal trust in times of COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Samreen Malik ◽  
Benedikt Mihm ◽  
Malte Reichelt
Keyword(s):  
Interpersonal Trust ◽  
Face Mask ◽  
Normative Beliefs ◽  
Behavioral Consequences ◽  
The Us ◽  
Health Related ◽  
Causal Impact ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Way ◽  
Economic Risks

AbstractDespite the widespread use of face masks to combat COVID-19, little is known about their social and behavioral consequences. To understand the impact of face masks on interpersonal trust, we designed a novel experiment to assess the causal impact of face mask use on whether individuals follow economically relevant advice from a stranger. From a survey of more than 2000 US citizens, conducted during July and August 2020, we find that almost 5% fewer individuals trust advice when it is given by someone wearing a mask than when it is given by someone not wearing a mask. While, surprisingly, health-related risks do not seem to alter the way masks affect trust, the effects of masks are particularly large among individuals whose households face economic risks due to COVID-19 and those with below-average normative beliefs about mask wearing. Our results highlight the non-health-related meaning that face masks have developed during COVID-19 and suggest that mask use undermines trust in others among a substantial share of the US population.

scholarly journals Litigation Dilemmas: Lessons from the Marcos Human Rights Class Action

2017 ◽  
Vol 42 (02) ◽  
pp. 479-508
Author(s):  
Nate Ela
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Social Movement ◽  
Supreme Court ◽  
Analytical Framework ◽  
Class Action ◽  
Legal Mobilization ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Supreme Court ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Alien Tort Statute

How do activist plaintiffs experience the process of human rights litigation under the Alien Tort Statute (ATS)? Answering this question is key to understanding the impact on transnational legal mobilization of Kiobel v. Royal Dutch Petroleum Co., in which the US Supreme Court sharply limited the scope of the ATS. Yet sociolegal scholars know remarkably little about the experiences of ATS litigants, before or after Kiobel. This article describes how activist litigants in a landmark ATS class action against former Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos faced a series of strategic dilemmas, and how disagreements over how to resolve those dilemmas played into divisions between activists and organizations on the Philippine left. The article develops an analytical framework focused on litigation dilemmas to explain how and why activists who pursue ATS litigation as an opportunity for legal mobilization may also encounter strategic dilemmas that contribute to dissension within a social movement.

Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO): Opportunities for Pakistan

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarwat Rauf
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Turning Point ◽  
World History ◽  
Analytical Framework ◽  
Global Level ◽  
Shanghai Cooperation Organization ◽  
Political Cooperation ◽  
The Us ◽  
Multilateral Diplomacy ◽  
The Impact

Pakistan’s inclusion in Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is optimistically seen as a turning point in the changing geopolitical landscape of the Eurasian belt, as well as bringing new opportunities for Pakistan. This paper explores the prospects of economic development and political cooperation that Pakistan’s membership of SCO offers. The practice of multilateral diplomacy has helped in mitigating regional tensions and augmenting collaboration in the world history, therefore, the paper explores the possibilities of SCO as the best multilateral forum for Pakistan. Although SCO is perceived as an anti-Western alliance, its extended membership is building on the allies (old and new) of the US, particularly inclusion of India and Pakistan is challenging the stance. Moreover, SCO has shunned the notion of anti-Western outlook and the widespread perception to balance out the supremacy of US at the regional, as well as global level. Even so, SCO is catering all prerequisites of the collaboration of regional actors in Central and South Asia and furthering cooperation in the economic field. In this setting, the paper is divided into three parts. The first part deals with the analytical framework of new regionalism in South and Central Asia. The second part examines core factors that have led to the extension of the SCO. Finally, the paper evaluates the impact of the extension of the SCO on Pakistan. The study concludes that notwithstanding challenges, the SCO provides opportunities for economic development and political cooperation between states.

scholarly journals Litigation Dilemmas: Lessons From the Marcos Human Rights Class Action

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nate Ela
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Social Movement ◽  
Supreme Court ◽  
Analytical Framework ◽  
Class Action ◽  
Legal Mobilization ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Supreme Court ◽  
Royal Dutch Shell ◽  
The Impact

How do activist plaintiffs experience the process of human rights litigation under the Alien Tort Statute (ATS)? Answering this question is key to understanding the impact on transnational legal mobilization of Kiobel v. Royal Dutch Shell, in which the US Supreme Court sharply limited the scope of the ATS. Yet socio-legal scholars know remarkably little about the experiences of ATS litigants, before or after Kiobel. This article describes how activist litigants in a landmark ATS class action against former Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos faced a series of strategic dilemmas, and how disagreements over how to resolve those dilemmas played into divisions between activists and organizations on the Philippine left. The article develops an analytical framework focused on litigation dilemmas, to explain how and why activists who pursue ATS litigation as an opportunity for legal mobilization may also encounter strategic dilemmas that contribute to dissension within a social movement.

scholarly journals The impact of face masks on interpersonal trust in times of COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samreen Malik ◽  
Benedikt Mihm ◽  
Malte Reichelt
Keyword(s):  
Interpersonal Trust ◽  
Face Mask ◽  
Normative Beliefs ◽  
Behavioral Consequences ◽  
The Us ◽  
Health Related ◽  
Causal Impact ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Way ◽  
Economic Risks

Abstract Despite the widespread use of face masks to combat COVID-19, little is known about their social and behavioral consequences. To understand the impact of face masks on interpersonal trust, we designed a novel experiment to assess the causal impact of face mask use on whether individuals follow economically relevant advice from a stranger. From a survey of more than 2,000 US citizens conducted during July and August 2020, we find that almost 5 percent fewer individuals trust advice when it is given by someone wearing a mask than when it is given by someone not wearing a mask. While, surprisingly, health-related risks do not seem to alter the way masks affect trust, the effects of masks are particularly large among individuals whose households face economic risks due to COVID-19 and those with below-average normative beliefs about mask wearing. Our results highlight the non-health-related meaning that face masks have developed during COVID-19 and suggest that mask use undermines trust in others among a substantial share of the US population.

scholarly journals When time-dependence in disease outcome risk is not captured by impact evaluation modeling studies: a measles vaccination case study

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Allison Portnoy ◽  
Yuli Lily Hsieh ◽  
Kaja Abbas ◽  
Petra Klepac ◽  
Heather Santos ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Vaccine Coverage ◽  
Disease Incidence ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Modeling Studies ◽  
Measles Vaccination ◽  
Secondary Outcomes ◽  
The Impact

Background: In modeling studies that evaluate the effects of health programs, the risk of secondary outcomes attributable to infection can vary with underlying disease incidence. Consequently, the impact of interventions on secondary outcomes would not be proportional to incidence reduction. Here we use a case study on measles vaccine program to demonstrate how failure to capture this non-linear relationship can lead to over- or under-estimation. Methods: We used a published model of measles CFR that depends on incidence and vaccine coverage to illustrate the effects of: (1) assuming higher CFR in 'no-vaccination' scenarios; (2) time-varying CFRs over the past; and (3) time-varying CFRs in future projections on measles impact estimation. We evaluated how different assumptions on vaccine coverage, measles incidence, and CFR levels in 'no-vaccination' scenarios affect estimation of future deaths averted by measles vaccination. Results: Compared to constant CFRs, aligning both 'vaccination' and 'no-vaccination' scenarios with time variant measles CFR estimates led to larger differences in mortality in historical years and lower in future years. Conclusions: To assess consequences of interventions, impact estimates should consider the effect of 'no-intervention' scenario assumptions on model parameters to project estimated impact for alternative scenarios according to intervention strategies and investment decisions.

scholarly journals Modeling SARS-CoV-2 spread with dynamic isolation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Md. Azmir Ibne Islam ◽  
Sharmin Sultana Shanta ◽  
Ashrafur Rahman
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
New Jersey ◽  
Screening Program ◽  
Vaccine Coverage ◽  
Wide Spectrum ◽  
Demographic Data ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Third Wave ◽  
Susceptible Population ◽  
The Impact

Background: The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic is spreading with a greater intensity across the globe. The synchrony of public health interventions and epidemic waves signify the importance of evaluation of the underline interventions. Method: We developed a mathematical model to present the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 and to analyze the impact of key nonpharmaceutical interventions such as isolation and screening program on the disease outcomes to the people of New Jersey, USA. We introduced a dynamic isolation of susceptible population with a constant (imposed) and infection oriented interventions. Epidemiological and demographic data are used to estimate the model parameters. The baseline case was explored further to showcase several critical and predictive scenarios. Results and analysis: The model simulations are in good agreement with the infection data for the period of 5 March 2020 to 31 January 2021. Dynamic isolation and screening program are found to be potential measures that can alter the course of epidemic. A  7% increase in isolation rate may result in a 31% reduction of epidemic peak whereas a 3 times increase in screening rate may reduce the epidemic peak by 35%. The model predicts that nearly 9.7% to 12% of the total population of New Jersey may become infected within the middle of July 2021 along with 24.6 to 27.3 thousand cumulative deaths. Within a wide spectrum of probable scenarios, there is a possibility of third wave Conclusion: Our findings could be informative to the public health community to contain the pandemic in the case of economy reopening under a limited or no vaccine coverage. Additional epidemic waves can be avoided by appropriate screening and isolation plans. 

scholarly journals Face Masks, Public Policies and Slowing the Spread of COVID-19: Evidence from Canada

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander Karaivanov ◽  
Shih En Lu ◽  
Hitoshi Shigeoka ◽  
Cong Chen ◽  
Stephanie Pamplona
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Survey Data ◽  
Face Mask ◽  
Location Data ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Policy Simulations ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Province Level ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

Abstract We estimate the impact of indoor face mask mandates and other non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) on COVID-19 case growth in Canada. Mask mandate introduction was staggered over two months in the 34 public health regions in Ontario, Canada. Using this variation, we find that mask mandates are associated with a 25 percent or larger weekly reduction in new COVID-19 cases in July and August, relative to the trend in absence of mandate. Province-level data provide corroborating evidence. We control for factors such as mobility (using Google geo-location data) and past cases. Our analysis of additional survey data shows that mask mandates led to an increase of about 30 percentage points in self-reported mask wearing in public. Counterfactual policy simulations suggest that mandating indoor masks nationwide in early July could have reduced new COVID-19 cases in Canada by 25 to 40 percent in mid-August (700 to 1,100 fewer cases per week).

scholarly journals Mathematical modeling of the transmission of SARS-CoV-2—Evaluating the impact of isolation in São Paulo State (Brazil) and lockdown in Spain associated with protective measures on the epidemic of CoViD-19

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (6) ◽  
pp. e0252271
Author(s):  
Hyun Mo Yang ◽  
Luis Pedro Lombardi Junior ◽  
Fábio Fernandes Morato Castro ◽  
Ariana Campos Yang
Keyword(s):  
Face Mask ◽  
Sao Paulo ◽  
World Health ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
São Paulo ◽  
Protective Measures ◽  
Paulo State ◽  
São Paulo State ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
The Impact

Coronavirus disease 2019 (CoViD-19), with the fatality rate in elder (60 years old or more) being much higher than young (60 years old or less) patients, was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization on March 11, 2020. A mathematical model considering young and elder subpopulations under different fatality rates was formulated based on the natural history of CoViD-19 to study the transmission of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The model considered susceptible, exposed, asymptomatic, pre-symptomatic, mild CoViD-19, severe CoViD-19, and recovered compartments, besides compartments of isolated individuals and those who were caught by test. This model was applied to study the epidemiological scenario resulting from the adoption of quarantine (isolation or lockdown) in many countries to control the rapid propagation of CoViD-19. We chose as examples the isolation adopted in São Paulo State (Brazil) in the early phase but not at the beginning of the epidemic, and the lockdown implemented in Spain when the number of severe CoViD-19 cases was increasing rapidly. Based on the data collected from São Paulo State and Spain, the model parameters were evaluated, and we obtained a higher estimation for the basic reproduction number R0 (9.24 for São Paulo State, and 8 for Spain) compared to the currently accepted estimation of R0 around 2 using the SEIR (susceptible, exposed, infectious, and recovered compartments) model. In comparison with the lockdown in Spain, the relatively early adoption of the isolation in São Paulo State resulted in enlarging the period of the first wave of the epidemic and delaying its peak. The model allowed to explain the flattening of the epidemic curves by quarantine when associated with the protective measures (face mask, washing hands with alcohol and gel, and social distancing) adopted by the population. The description of the epidemic under quarantine and protections can be a background to foreseen the epidemiological scenarios from the release strategies, which can help guide public health policies by decision-makers.

scholarly journals Protecting the vaccinating population in the face of a measles epidemic: assessing the impact of adjusted vaccination schedules

2002 ◽  
Vol 128 (1) ◽  
pp. 47-57 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. van den HOF ◽  
J. WALLINGA ◽  
M.-A. WIDDOWSON ◽  
M. A. E. CONYN-VAN SPAENDONCK
Keyword(s):  
Vaccine Coverage ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Vaccination Schedule ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Serological Survey ◽  
Measles Antibodies ◽  
The Face ◽  
Measles Vaccination ◽  
Antibody Levels ◽  
The Impact

We investigated which vaccination schedule gives best protection to the vaccinating population, in case there is a measles epidemic in an area with low vaccine coverage. We considered combinations of an early measles vaccination (none, at 6 months or at 9 months), a measles–mumps–rubella (MMR) vaccination around the first birthday (at either 11 or 14 months), and MMR vaccination at an older age (at either 4 or 9 years). The different estimates on measures of protection (percentage of susceptibles, number of reported cases in an epidemic year, percentage of lifetime spent susceptible) relied on a mathematical model of decline of maternal antibody levels with age, and the impact of that antibody level on seroconversion and immunity. Model parameters were estimated from a Dutch population-based serological survey on measles antibodies. Different measures of protection favoured different vaccination schedules, but dropping the age of second MMR vaccination prevents considerably more cases than an extra early measles vaccination or dropping the age of first MMR vaccination.

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