scholarly journals Estimation of Total Immunity to SARS-CoV-2 in Texas

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stacia M Desantis ◽  
Luis G Leon-Novelo ◽  
Michael D Swartz ◽  
Ashraf Yaseen ◽  
Melissa A Valerio-Shewmaker ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
State Level ◽  
Unknown Parameters ◽  
Department Of State ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Population Immunity ◽  
Dynamic Factors ◽  
The Us ◽  
Serological Data ◽  
Prospective Longitudinal ◽  
Induced Immunity

Given the underestimate of seroprevalence in the US due to insufficient testing, accurate estimates of population immunity to SARS-CoV-2 or vaccinations do not exist. Although model-based estimates have been proposed, they require inputting unknown parameters such as viral reproduction number, longevity of immune response, and other dynamic factors. In contrast to a model-based approach for estimating population immunity, or simplistic summing of natural- and vaccine- induced immunity, the current study presents a data-driven statistical procedure for estimating the total immunity rate in a region using prospectively collected serological data along with state-level vaccination data. We present a detailed procedure so that efforts can be replicated regionally to inform policy-making decisions relevant to SARS-CoV-2. Specifically, we conducted a prospective longitudinal statewide cohort serological survey with 10,482 participants and more than 14,000 blood samples beginning on September 30, 2020. Along with Department of State Health Services vaccination data, as of July 4, 2021, the estimated percentage of those with naturally occurring antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Texas is 35.3% (95% CI = (33.7%, 36.9%) and total estimated immunity is 69.1%.We conclude the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 is 4 times higher than the state-confirmed COVID-19 cases (8.8%). This methodology is integral to pandemic preparedness.

scholarly journals Analysis of 220 Years of Floodplain Population Dynamics in the US at Different Spatial Scales

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 141
Author(s):  
Firoza Akhter ◽  
Maurizio Mazzoleni ◽  
Luigia Brandimarte
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
National Level ◽  
State Level ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Protection Measures ◽  
Management Planning ◽  
The Us ◽  
Over Time

In this study, we explore the long-term trends of floodplain population dynamics at different spatial scales in the contiguous United States (U.S.). We exploit different types of datasets from 1790–2010—i.e., decadal spatial distribution for the population density in the US, global floodplains dataset, large-scale data of flood occurrence and damage, and structural and nonstructural flood protection measures for the US. At the national level, we found that the population initially settled down within the floodplains and then spread across its territory over time. At the state level, we observed that flood damages and national protection measures might have contributed to a learning effect, which in turn, shaped the floodplain population dynamics over time. Finally, at the county level, other socio-economic factors such as local flood insurances, economic activities, and socio-political context may predominantly influence the dynamics. Our study shows that different influencing factors affect floodplain population dynamics at different spatial scales. These facts are crucial for a reliable development and implementation of flood risk management planning.

scholarly journals Associations between Google Search Trends for Symptoms and COVID-19 Confirmed and Death Cases in the United States

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (9) ◽  
pp. 4560
Author(s):  
Mostafa Abbas ◽  
Thomas B. Morland ◽  
Eric S. Hall ◽  
Yasser EL-Manzalawy
Keyword(s):  
Functional Data ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
State Level ◽  
The United States ◽  
Functional Principal Component Analysis ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Dynamic Correlation ◽  
The Us ◽  
Google Search

We utilize functional data analysis techniques to investigate patterns of COVID-19 positivity and mortality in the US and their associations with Google search trends for COVID-19-related symptoms. Specifically, we represent state-level time series data for COVID-19 and Google search trends for symptoms as smoothed functional curves. Given these functional data, we explore the modes of variation in the data using functional principal component analysis (FPCA). We also apply functional clustering analysis to identify patterns of COVID-19 confirmed case and death trajectories across the US. Moreover, we quantify the associations between Google COVID-19 search trends for symptoms and COVID-19 confirmed case and death trajectories using dynamic correlation. Finally, we examine the dynamics of correlations for the top nine Google search trends of symptoms commonly associated with COVID-19 confirmed case and death trajectories. Our results reveal and characterize distinct patterns for COVID-19 spread and mortality across the US. The dynamics of these correlations suggest the feasibility of using Google queries to forecast COVID-19 cases and mortality for up to three weeks in advance. Our results and analysis framework set the stage for the development of predictive models for forecasting COVID-19 confirmed cases and deaths using historical data and Google search trends for nine symptoms associated with both outcomes.

scholarly journals The importance of supplementary immunisation activities to prevent measles outbreaks during the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya

BMC Medicine ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
C. N. Mburu ◽  
◽  
J. Ojal ◽  
R. Chebet ◽  
D. Akech ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Vaccination Coverage ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
African Region ◽  
Population Immunity ◽  
Measles Outbreak ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Measles Vaccination ◽  
Serological Data ◽  
Measles Outbreaks ◽  
Measles Vaccination Coverage

Abstract Background The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted routine measles immunisation and supplementary immunisation activities (SIAs) in most countries including Kenya. We assessed the risk of measles outbreaks during the pandemic in Kenya as a case study for the African Region. Methods Combining measles serological data, local contact patterns, and vaccination coverage into a cohort model, we predicted the age-adjusted population immunity in Kenya and estimated the probability of outbreaks when contact-reducing COVID-19 interventions are lifted. We considered various scenarios for reduced measles vaccination coverage from April 2020. Results In February 2020, when a scheduled SIA was postponed, population immunity was close to the herd immunity threshold and the probability of a large outbreak was 34% (8–54). As the COVID-19 contact restrictions are nearly fully eased, from December 2020, the probability of a large measles outbreak will increase to 38% (19–54), 46% (30–59), and 54% (43–64) assuming a 15%, 50%, and 100% reduction in measles vaccination coverage. By December 2021, this risk increases further to 43% (25–56), 54% (43–63), and 67% (59–72) for the same coverage scenarios respectively. However, the increased risk of a measles outbreak following the lifting of all restrictions can be overcome by conducting a SIA with ≥ 95% coverage in under-fives. Conclusion While contact restrictions sufficient for SAR-CoV-2 control temporarily reduce measles transmissibility and the risk of an outbreak from a measles immunity gap, this risk rises rapidly once these restrictions are lifted. Implementing delayed SIAs will be critical for prevention of measles outbreaks given the roll-back of contact restrictions in Kenya.

scholarly journals Voting Rights for Non-Citizens: The European Multilevel and the US Federal Constitutional Systems Compared

2011 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 392-423 ◽  
Author(s):  
Federico Fabbrini
Keyword(s):  
State Level ◽  
Voting Rights ◽  
The State ◽  
Comparative Perspective ◽  
Federal System ◽  
Future Prospects ◽  
The Us ◽  
Comparative Methodology ◽  
Federal Constitutional ◽  
Regulatory Models

Voting rights – Citizens and aliens – European multilevel architecture – US federal system – Comparative methodology – Different regulatory models for non-citizens suffrage at the state level in Europe – Impact of supranational law – Challenges and tensions – Analogous dynamics in the US constitutional experience – Recent European legal and jurisprudential developments in comparative perspective – What future prospects for citizenship and democracy in Europe?

Seroprevalence and immunological memory against SARS-CoV-2 in lung cancer patients (p): SOLID study.

2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. 8531-8531
Author(s):  
Mariano Provencio ◽  
Delvys Rodriguez-Abreu ◽  
Ana Collazo Lorduy ◽  
Gloria Mª Serrano ◽  
Ana Laura Ortega Granados ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Lung Cancer ◽  
Nasal Congestion ◽  
Clinical Situation ◽  
Eligibility Criteria ◽  
Lung Cancer Patients ◽  
Population Immunity ◽  
Treatment Data ◽  
Thoracic Cancer ◽  
Prospective Longitudinal

8531 Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is diagnosed by detecting the virus by reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). The majority of p go on to develop antibodies (Ab) against viral proteins. However, it is not known how long these antibodies last nor whether cancer treatments could affect the duration of immune response. The prognosis and greater or lesser vulnerability of the oncological population are also unknown. Methods: This prospective, longitudinal, multicenter serological study in the setting of SARS-CoV-2 was carried out in 50 Spanish hospitals. Eligibility criteria was a diagnosis of any thoracic cancer. The first determinations were performed between April 21, 2020 and June 3, 2020, either for p in follow up or in active treatment. Between September 10, 2020, and November 20, 2020, the second antibody (Ab) determination was performed in all previously seropositive p. Clinical and treatment data were collected, as was their clinical situation at study end. Study objectives were to prospectively determine seroprevalence in unselected lung cancer p during the first wave of the pandemic; the natural history of these p; the persistence of immunity more than 4 months after first determination; protection or lack thereof against reinfection after this period, and the nature of such protection; and the influence of treatments on maintenance or loss of immunity. Results: Of 1,500 p studied, 128 were seropositive, representing an overall prevalence of 8.5% seropositivity [95% confidence interval [CI], 7.2%, 10.1%]. Seventy-five percent were in active cancer treatment. COVID-19 infection was suspected in 47.7% [95% CI, 38.8%, 56.6%]. A second determination was performed on average 4.5 months later [IQR: 4; 5] and obtained for 104 of the initially seropositive p (81%). A second determination could not be obtained in 24 p, the majority due to death caused by disease progression (73%). In the second determination, IgG was not detected in 30.8% (32/104) of p. The severity of the infection, the need for hospitalization (p: 0.032) and the presence of symptoms at diagnosis (p: 0.02), including fever (p: 0.005) and nasal congestion (p: 0.005), were associated with persistence of immunity in the second determination. No variables or treatments received were associated with Ab loss. At time of last follow-up among those p for whom a second determination was performed, 89% (93 p) had completely recovered from the virus, with no lasting after effects. Only 1 of the 128 (0.78%) seropositive p had died from COVID-19. Conclusions: The prevalence of infection in lung cancer p is similar to that of the general population. Immunity against SARS-CoV-2 does not appear to be compromised by treatment, persisting beyond 4 months. Neither do mortality rates appear to be particularly high in this unselected population.

scholarly journals Fiscal Resilience Building

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (94) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rasmané Ouedraogo ◽  
Rene Tapsoba ◽  
Moussé Sow ◽  
Ali Compaoré
Keyword(s):  
National Level ◽  
State Level ◽  
Theil Index ◽  
Tax Revenue ◽  
Revenue Diversification ◽  
Economic Diversification ◽  
Revenue Sources ◽  
The Us ◽  
Cross Country ◽  
Revenue Volatility

Does the reliance on diversified tax structure enhance resilience to fiscal risks? This paper gives an answer to this question by proposing a new cross-country tax revenue diversification index (RDI). The RDI builds on the Theil index, and unlike the few existing tax diversification indices, which are constructed only at the state level for the US, is computed at the national level, covering a broad panel of 127 countries over the period 2000-15. We find suggestive evidence that tax revenue diversification reduces tax revenue volatility, thus bringing to the data long-held views about the prominence of tax revenue diversification for fiscal resilience strengthening. While exploring the drivers of the RDI, we find that tax revenue diversification is not just a reflection of economic diversification, but also an outcome of macroeconomic, political and institutional factors. Interestingly, a non-monotone relationship is also at play between the RDI and economic development, with countries’ portfolio of tax sources getting more diversified as their economy develops, until a tipping point, where richer countries start finding it harder to diversify further their tax revenue sources.

scholarly journals Green Complexity, Economic Fitness, and Environmental Degradation: Evidence from U.S. State-Level Data

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
İbrahim Tuğrul Çınar ◽  
İlhan Korkmaz ◽  
Muhammet Yunus Şişman
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Degradation ◽  
Environmental Quality ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
National Level ◽  
State Level ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Green Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
Green Production ◽  
Significant Negative Impact

Abstract Green production is one of the major debates as environmental degradation poses threats globally. The paper attempts to explore the relationship between green economy and environmental quality by using Economic Fitness approach. We develop a Green Complexity Index (GCI) dataset consists of 290 traded green-labeled products for the US States between 2002 and 2018. We analyze the environmental performance of green production using the GCI data at the sub-national level. Findings indicate that exporting more complex green products has insignificant effects on local (i.e., Sulfur dioxide, Particulate Matter 10) and global polluters such as Carbon dioxide (CO2), even accounting for per capita income. Yet, overall economic complexity has a significant negative impact on the emission levels implying that sophisticated production significantly improves environmental quality in the US. The insignificant impact of GCI on environmental degradation suggests that green product classifications should incorporate the production and end-use stages of goods to limit the adverse environmental effects of green-labeled products. The study, therefore, provides policy implications for green industrial policies.JEL codes: O18, Q56, R11

W. R. Bascom and the Ife bronzes

Africa ◽  
1990 ◽  
Vol 60 (3) ◽  
pp. 425-434 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert L. Tignor
Keyword(s):  
American Anthropologist ◽  
Department Of State ◽  
The Us ◽  
Eventual Return ◽  
British Colonial ◽  
Opening Paragraph ◽  
The Third World ◽  
Colonial Government ◽  
The City ◽  
Small Museum

Opening ParagraphIn 1938 an African building a house in the city of Ife, the cultural capital of the Yorubas and the mythical cradle of Yoruba civilisation, came upon an extraordinary cache of ancient Nigerian bronzes. In all, at least fifteen bronzes were uncovered in 1938 in a compound only 100 yards from the palace of the Oni of Ife. These bronzes were to prove of great historical and artistic significance. Until that time only two other bronzes had been unearthed in the Yoruba area, and one of those had disappeared, leaving Nigeria only a single original and a replica. In the disposition of the priceless new finds there ensued a tale of intrigue, prevarication, outraged nationalism, and narrow-minded ethnocentricism that drew into its maelstrom the British colonial government of Nigeria, the US Consulate in Lagos, and the USA's Department of State. Although the Ife bronzes, which today reside in a handsome if small museum in the city of Ife, are not so well known as, for example, the Elgin marbles or certain other antiquities taken from the Third World, the controversy surrounding their removal from Nigeria and their eventual return was filled with the same emotion and employed the same arguments heard today over the rightful location of national cultural treasures. The Nigerian dispute is made all the more poignant in that one of the major protagonists was not a money-seeking antiquities dealer, but a young American anthropologist destined to be one of the most astute and sympathetic interpreters of Yoruba culture.

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