scholarly journals An in-depth statistical analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic’s initial spread in the WHO African region

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ananthu James ◽  
Jyoti Dalal ◽  
Timokleia Kousi ◽  
Daniela Vivacqua ◽  
Daniel Cardoso Portela Câmara ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Older People ◽  
Attack Rate ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Quality Data ◽  
List Type ◽  
African Region ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
Good Quality Data

AbstractObjectiveTo quantify the initial spread of COVID-19 in the WHO African region, and to investigate the possible drivers responsible for variation in the epidemic among member states.DesignA cross-sectional study.SettingCOVID-19 daily case and death data from the initial case through 29 November 2020.Participants46 countries comprising the WHO African region.Main outcome measuresWe used five pandemic response indicators for each country: speed at which the pandemic reached the country, speed at which the first 50 cases accumulated, maximum monthly attack rate, cumulative attack rate, and crude case fatality ratio (CFR). We studied the effect of 13 predictor variables on the country-level variation in them using a principal component analysis, followed by regression.ResultsCountries with higher tourism activities, GDP per capita, and proportion of older people had higher monthly (p < 0.001) and cumulative attack rates (p < 0.001) and lower CFRs (p = 0.052). Countries having more stringent early COVID-19 response policies experienced greater delay in arrival of the first case (p < 0.001). The speed at which the first 50 cases occurred was slower in countries whose neighbors had higher cumulative attack rates (p = 0.06).ConclusionsWhile global connectivity and tourism could facilitate the spread of airborne infectious agents, the observed differences in attack rates between African countries might also be due to differences in testing capacities or age distribution. Wealthy countries managed to minimize adverse outcomes. Further, careful and early implementation of strict government policies, such as restricting tourism, could be pivotal to controlling the COVID-19 pandemic. Evidently, good quality data and sufficient testing capacities are essential to unravel the epidemiology of an outbreak. We thus urge decision-makers to reduce these barriers to ensure rapid responses to future threats to public health and economic stability.Summary BoxWhat is already known on this topicThe diversity in the COVID-19 trajectories across Africa.The heterogeneity in the reporting and testing capacities among countries.What this study addsThe heterogeneities in the attack rates during the first wave of COVID-19 in Africa could have emerged due to tourism and connectivity, the variations in age distribution, and the testing facilities between nations. Although richer countries, having a higher fraction of older people and more tourism activities, documented higher attack rates, they succeeded in reducing mortalities.African countries that had more stringent early COVID-19 response policies managed to delay the onset of the outbreak at the national level. Moreover, the speed at which the first 50 cases occurred was slower in nations whose neighbors had higher cumulative attack rates.Good quality data and timely reporting are essential in understanding and controlling a public health crisis.

scholarly journals Global AgeWatch Index and Insights

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gibran Cruz-Martinez ◽  
Gokce Cerev
Keyword(s):  
Older People ◽  
Composite Index ◽  
Quality Data ◽  
Transformative Change ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Good Quality Data ◽  
Low And Middle Income

Global AgeWatch Index and Insights by HelpAge International aim to contribute to achievement of long-term transformative change in respect to ageing and the lives of older people by advocating for better production of timely and good quality data to inform policy and program response.The Global AgeWatch Index is a composite index that measures quality of life of older people, and ranks countries based on four domains – income security, health status, enabling environment and capability. The index was developed in partnership with Professor Asghar Zaidi. The index was published during 2013-2015.The Global AgeWatch Insights is a research-based advocacy tool that examines situation of older people in low- and middle-income countries, assesses availability of relevant data and evidence to support the analysis, and identification of policy actions. The Insights are produced in partnership with AARP. The reports were launched in 2018 are planned to be released every three years with a different thematic focus. The first report focuses on the inequities of the health systems in twelve low- and middle-income countries.

Leveraging Polio GIS platforms in the African Region for mitigating Covid-19 contact tracing challenges (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Godwin Ubong Akpan ◽  
Isah Mohammed Bello ◽  
Kebba Touray ◽  
Reuben Ngofa ◽  
Daniel Oyaole ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Data Collection ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Open Data ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Quality Data ◽  
Time Data ◽  
Outbreak Response ◽  
African Region ◽  
Health Crisis

BACKGROUND The growth of the novel coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in Africa is an urgent public health crisis. Estimated models project over 150,000 deaths and 4,600,000 hospitalizations in the first year of disease in the absence of adequate interventions. Electronic contact tracing, therefore, offers a critical role in decreasing COVID-19 transmission; yet if not conducted properly can rapidly become a bottleneck for synchronized data collection, case detection, and case management. While the continent is currently reporting relatively low COVID-19 cases, digitized contact tracing mechanisms are necessary for standardizing real-time reporting of new chains of infection to quickly reverse growing trends and halt the pandemic. OBJECTIVE The aim of this study is describing an effective contact tracing smartphone app developed with expertise and experience gained from the numerous digital apps that the Polio programme has used to successfully support disease surveillance and immunization assessment in the African Region. A secondary objective is to describe how we leveraged Polio GIS resources to enhance existing contact tracing solutions to be more efficient through the connection to real-time data visualization platforms. METHODS We propose the use of a hybrid Open Data Kit (ODK) electronic COVID-19 contact registra- tion form that automates contacts and follow-ups. A proof-of-concept form on ODK has been developed that integrates collected contact tracing information from multiple platforms to generate an interactive regional dashboard to monitor the COVID-19 response. Analytics outputs extrapolate key outbreak response indi- cators such as timeliness, completeness and outcomes of contact tracing including new positive cases. This system allows multiple outbreak outputs to be monitored including sources of new infection for immediate response with minimal disruption to existing contact tracing tools. RESULTS Standardized electronic registration of COVID-19 contacts and follow-up using ODK has en- hanced monitoring of contact tracing. Countries and communities have increased their capacity to track COVID-19 cases and contacts in the general population quickly based on the onset of signs or symptoms. Registered contacts for contact tracing are matched to their respective cases more efficiently and for con- tacts that can engage in self-reporting, the anonymity of self-reporting. The country-specific results suggest that higher adoption rates of the tools may result in better quality data on the pandemic and elicited better decisions for a response. CONCLUSIONS Our proposed contact tracing solution which uses ODK based tools on smartphones and visualization bridge systems presents a scalable and easy to implement solution, that collects and aggregates good quality contact data with geographic information that can help make spatial based decisions and preserves privacy while demonstrating the potential to help make better decisions in response to an epidemic or pandemic outbreak. This application has been applied to the current COVID-19 pandemic and can also be used for other epidemics or pandemics in the future, to achieve quality data collection for better decision making.

scholarly journals Prioritizing public health? Factors affecting the issuance of stay-at-home orders in response to COVID-19 in Africa

2022 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. e0000112
Author(s):  
Gregg R. Murray ◽  
Joshua Rutland
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Event History Analysis ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Political Factors ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
The Public ◽  
Early Stages ◽  
History Analysis ◽  
At Home

COVID-19 has sickened and killed millions of people globally. Conventional non-pharmaceutical interventions, particularly stay-at-home orders (SAHOs), though effective for limiting the spread of disease have significantly disrupted social and economic systems. The effects also have been dramatic in Africa, where many states are already vulnerable due to their developmental status. This study is designed to test hypotheses derived from the public health policymaking literature regarding the roles played by medical and political factors as well as social, economic, and external factors in African countries’ issuance of SAHOs in response to the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. Using event history analysis, this study analyzed these five common factors related to public health policy to determine their impact on African states’ varying decisions regarding the issuance of SAHOs. The results of this analysis suggest that medical factors significantly influenced decisions as did factors external to the states, while the role of political factors was limited. Social and economic factors played no discernible role. Overall, this study suggests how African leaders prioritized competing factors in the early stages of a public health crisis.

scholarly journals 381. The Importance of Data Accuracy and Transparency for Policymaking During a Public Health Crisis: A Case Study in the State of Iowa

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. S292-S293
Author(s):  
Megan L Srinivas ◽  
HyungSub Shim ◽  
Dana Jones ◽  
Patrick R Hansen ◽  
Sara A Willette ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
News Media ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Quality Data ◽  
Public Confidence ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
Reported Data ◽  
K 12

Abstract Background High-quality data are necessary for decision-making during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Lack of transparency and accuracy in data reporting can erode public confidence, mislead policymakers, and endanger safety. Two major data errors in Iowa impacted critical state- and county-level decision-making. Methods The Iowa Department of Public Health (IDPH) publishes daily COVID-19 data. Authors independently tracked daily data from IDPH and other publicly available sources (i.e., county health departments, news media, and social networks). Data include: number and type of tests, results, hospitalizations, intensive care unit admissions, and deaths at state/county levels. Results Discrepancies were identified between IDPH and non-IDPH data, with at least two confirmed by IDPH: (1) The backdating of test results identified on May 28, 2020. IDPH labeled results as occurring up to four months before the actual test date. IDPH confirmed that if a person previously tested for SARS-CoV-2, a new test result was attributed to the initial test’s date. Corrections on August 19, 2020 increased positivity rates in 31 counties, but decreased the state’s overall rate (9.1% to 7.5%). (2) The selective exclusion of antigen test results noted on August 20, 2020. Antigen testing was included in the total number of tests reported in metric denominators, but their results were being excluded from their respective numerators. Thus, positive antigen results were interpreted as de facto negative tests, artificially lowering positivity rates. Corrections increased Iowa’s positivity rate (5.0% to 14.2%). In July 2020, the Iowa Department of Education mandated in-person K-12 learning for counties with &lt; 15% positivity. These data changes occurred during critical decision-making, altering return-to-learn plans in seven counties. The Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services’ requirements also caused nursing homes to urgently revise testing strategies. Timeline of changes to Iowa state COVID-19 testing through the end of August 2020. Change in positive and overall test results due to IDPH data corrections. These graphs represent the difference in cumulative total reported test results when pulled from the IDPH website on September 29, 2020 compared to data for the same dates when pulled on August 19, 2020 before the announced adjustment. The adjustment and subsequent daily changes in reported data amount to a dramatic change in the number of reported positive cases (A) with an increase of nearly 3,000 cases by April 25, as well as the loss of tens of thousands of data points when tracking total resulted tests (B). Conclusion Data availability, quality, and transparency vary widely across the US, hindering science-based policymaking. Independent audit and curations of data can contribute to better public health policies. We urge all states to increase the availability and transparency of public health data. Disclosures All Authors: No reported disclosures

scholarly journals Managing Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Data for Public Health Research

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Deborah Van Gaans ◽  
Sarah Ahmed ◽  
Katina D'Onise ◽  
Sean Matthew Taylor ◽  
R McDermott
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Torres Strait Islander ◽  
Population Group ◽  
Public Health Research ◽  
Quality Data ◽  
Quality Information ◽  
The Status ◽  
Torres Strait ◽  
Collection And Management ◽  
Good Quality Data

Good quality data on Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples are needed to assess the effectiveness of programs and interventions, and to evaluate policies that are designed to improve the status of, and service delivery to, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples.  Due to the lack of longitudinal data it is difficult to gain knowledge on the specific causes or consequences of changes in indigenous outcomes.  Variables such as name, date of birth and address variables for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders may be subject to more variation and be less consistently reported among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians than among other Australians.  Improving the collection and management of key identifying variables for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders are key to providing more quality information on this population group.

scholarly journals COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan African Countries: Association between Compliance and Public Opinion

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 91
Author(s):  
Chikasirimobi Goodhope Timothy ◽  
Deborah Donald Charwe ◽  
Uchechukwu L Osuagwu ◽  
Chundung Asabe Miner ◽  
Emmanuel Kwasi Abu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Public Opinion ◽  
Multiple Logistic Regression Analysis ◽  
Global Public Health ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Cross Sectional Survey ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
Running Water ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Sub Saharan

BACKGROUND: The outbreak of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has created a global public health crisis and non-compliance with public health measures to contain the infection poses a challenge to Sub-Saharan African governments. This study investigated the associations between compliance and public opinion on COVID-19 public health containment measures across selected SSA countries. METHOD: Anonymous online cross-sectional survey was administered to 1779 adults (18 years and older) during the mandatory lockdown period in most African countries (April 18 - May 16, 2020). Respondents were recruited via Facebook, WhatsApp, and authors&#39; networks. Data on participants&rsquo; socio-demographics, their opinions regarding the precautionary measures against COVID-19, and their compliance with preventive measures were collected. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to examine the association between compliance and public opinions about COVID-19. RESULTS: Respondents who did not think that public health authorities in their countries were doing enough to control the C0VID-19 outbreak were more likely to attend crowded places (aOR 1.75, 95% CI 1.30-2.35). Those who thought COVID-19 would not remain in their countries (aOR 0.48, 95% CI 0.24 - 0.96) and those who thought self-isolation is not needed during the pandemic (aOR 0.29, 95% CI 0.13 - 0.65) were less likely to encourage others to comply with the strategies put in place to prevent the spread of the disease. Participants who thought the COVID-19 outbreak was dangerous and those wearing medical masks were found to wash their hands with soap under running water. CONCLUSION: The study showed that public opinion influenced the compliance of individuals to public health measures for containment and mitigation of COVID-19. There is a need to improve compliance by the public.

Exploring the World Trade Organisation's Trade and Environment/Public Health Jurisprudence as a Model for Incorporating a Trade–Labour Linkage into the Organisation's Multilateral Trade Regime: Should African Countries Accept a Policy Shift?

2017 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 47-65
Author(s):  
Tapiwa V. Warikandwa ◽  
Patrick C. Osode
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
World Trade ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Trade Regime ◽  
Multilateral Trade ◽  
Appellate Body ◽  
The World ◽  
Labour Standards ◽  
The Impact

The incorporation of a trade-labour (standards) linkage into the multilateral trade regime of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) has been persistently opposed by developing countries, including those in Africa, on the grounds that it has the potential to weaken their competitive advantage. For that reason, low levels of compliance with core labour standards have been viewed as acceptable by African countries. However, with the impact of WTO agreements growing increasingly broader and deeper for the weaker and vulnerable economies of developing countries, the jurisprudence developed by the WTO Panels and Appellate Body regarding a trade-environment/public health linkage has the potential to address the concerns of developing countries regarding the potential negative effects of a trade-labour linkage. This article argues that the pertinent WTO Panel and Appellate Body decisions could advance the prospects of establishing a linkage of global trade participation to labour standards without any harm befalling developing countries.

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