scholarly journals Social contacts and transmission of COVID-19 in British Columbia, Canada

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Notice Ringa ◽  
Michael C. Otterstatter ◽  
Sarafa A. Iyaniwura ◽  
Mike A. Irvine ◽  
Prince Adu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
British Columbia ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Health Authority ◽  
Close Contact ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Contact Rates ◽  
The Impact

AbstractPurposeClose-contact rates are thought to be a significant driving force behind the dynamics of transmission for many infectious respiratory diseases. Efforts to control such infections typically focus on the practice of strict contact-avoidance measures. Yet, contact rates and their relation to transmission, and the impact of control measures, are seldom quantified. Here, we quantify the response of contact rates, transmission and new cases of COVID-19 to public health contact-restriction orders, and the associations among these three variables, in the Canadian province of British Columbia (BC) and within its two most densely populated regional health authorities: Fraser Health Authority (FHA) and Vancouver Coastal Health Authority (VCHA).MethodsWe obtained time series for self-reported close-contact rates from the BC Mix COVID-19 Survey, new reported cases of COVID-19 from the BC Center for Disease Control, and transmission rates based on dynamic model fits to reported cases. Our study period was from September 13, 2020 to February 19, 2021, during which three public health contact-restriction orders were introduced (October 26, November 7 and November 19, 2020). We used segmented linear regression to quantify impacts of public health orders, Pearson correlation to assess the instantaneous relation between contact rates and transmission, and vector autoregressive modeling to study the lagged relations among the three variables.ResultsOverall, declines in contact rates and transmission occurred concurrently with the announcement of public health orders, whereas declines in new cases showed a reporting delay of roughly two weeks. The impact of the first public health order (October 26, 2020) on contact rates and transmission was more pronounced than that of the other two health orders. Contact rates and transmission on the same day were strongly correlated (correlation coefficients = 0.64, 0.53 and 0.34 for BC, FHA, and VCHA, respectively). Moreover, contact rates were a significant time-series driver of COVID-19 and explained roughly 30% and 18% of the variation in new cases and transmission, respectively. Interestingly, increases in transmission and new cases were followed by reduced rates of contact: overall, average daily cases explained about 10% of the variation in provincial contact rates.ConclusionWe show that close-contact rates were a significant driver of transmission of COVID-19 in British Columbia, Canada and that they varied in response to public health orders. Our results also suggest a possible feedback, by which contact rates respond to recent changes in reported cases. Our findings help to explain and validate the commonly assumed, but rarely measured, response of close contact rates to public health guidelines and their impact on the dynamics of infectious diseases.

scholarly journals Effect of COVID-19 on childhood Mycoplasma pneumoniae infection in Chengdu, China

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ying Zhang ◽  
Yijie Huang ◽  
Tao Ai ◽  
Jun Luo ◽  
Hanmin Liu
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Mycoplasma Pneumoniae ◽  
Close Contact ◽  
Serum Antibody ◽  
Pathogen Transmission ◽  
Western China ◽  
Public Health Response ◽  
The Public ◽  
Health Response ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background Following the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, a change in the incidence and transmission of respiratory pathogens was observed. Here, we retrospectively analyzed the impact of COVID-19 on the epidemiologic characteristics of Mycoplasma pneumoniae infection among children in Chengdu, one of the largest cities of western China. Method M. pneumoniae infection was diagnosed in 33,345 pediatric patients with respiratory symptoms at the Chengdu Women’s & Children’s Central Hospital between January 2017 and December 2020, based on a serum antibody titer of ≥1:160 measured by the passive agglutination assay. Differences in infection rates were examined by sex, age, and temporal distribution. Results Two epidemic outbreaks occurred between October-December 2017 and April-December 2019, and two infection peaks were detected in the second and fourth quarters of 2017, 2018, and 2019. Due to the public health response to COVID-19, the number of positive M. pneumoniae cases significantly decreased in the second quarter of 2020. The number of M. pneumoniae infection among children aged 3–6 years was higher than that in other age groups. Conclusions Preschool children are more susceptible to M. pneumoniae infection and close contact appears to be the predominant factor favoring pathogen transmission. The public health response to COVID-19 can effectively control the transmission of M. pneumoniae.

scholarly journals The influence of risk perceptions on close contact frequency during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
James Wambua ◽  
Lisa Hermans ◽  
Pietro Coletti ◽  
Frederik Verelst ◽  
Lander Willem ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health Communication ◽  
Risk Perceptions ◽  
Close Contact ◽  
Social Contact ◽  
Perceived Severity ◽  
Public Health Communication ◽  
Contact Behaviour ◽  
Contact Frequency ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Human behaviour is known to be crucial in the propagation of infectious diseases through respiratory or close-contact routes like the current SARS-CoV-2 virus. Intervention measures implemented to curb the spread of the virus mainly aim at limiting the number of close contacts, until vaccine roll-out is complete. Our main objective was to assess the relationships between SARS-CoV-2 perceptions and social contact behaviour in Belgium. Understanding these relationships is crucial to maximize interventions' effectiveness, e.g. by tailoring public health communication campaigns. In this study, we surveyed a representative sample of adults in Belgium in two longitudinal surveys (8 waves of survey 1 in April 2020 to August 2020, and 11 waves of survey 2 in November 2020 to April 2021). Generalized linear mixed effects models were used to analyse the two surveys. Participants with low and neutral perceptions on perceived severity made a significantly higher number of social contacts as compared to participants with high levels of perceived severity after controlling for other variables. Furthermore, participants with higher levels of perceived effectiveness of measures and perceived adherence to measures made fewer contacts. However, the differences were small. Our results highlight the key role of perceived severity on social contact behaviour during a pandemic. Nevertheless, additional research is required to investigate the impact of public health communication on severity of COVID-19 in terms of changes in social contact behaviour.

scholarly journals Characteristics and Seasonal Variations of Atmospheric Deposition of Selected Elements in the Urban and Industrial Environment of Košice (Slovakia)

2021 ◽  
Vol 906 (1) ◽  
pp. 012100
Author(s):  
Jozef Hančul’ák ◽  
Ol’ga Šestinová ◽  
Lenka Findoráková
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Deposition ◽  
Detailed Analysis ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Water Soluble ◽  
Dust Particles ◽  
Winter Period ◽  
Emission Sources ◽  
Summer Period ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This study aims to evaluate the impact of local emission sources on the environmental load through a detailed analysis of the atmospheric deposition (AD). The main sources of pollution are neighbouring iron and steelworks and typical urban sources, such as the heating plant, transport, construction, etc. Total atmospheric deposition, i.e. both wet and dry ones, were sampled from eleven sampling sites that have been placed on the roofs above the height of the surrounding buildings at a distance of 1 to 16 kilometers from the main source of pollution in the urban, suburban and rural areas. The atmospheric deposition fluxes of selected elements (Fe, Al, Mn, Zn, Pb, Cu, Cr, Cd, As) were determined separately for “water-soluble” and “insoluble phase” (particulate matter - PM) as well as in terms of the heating season for summer and winter half-year. The results from 2009–2020 are introduced. The average Fe deposition at urban stations in Košice was 2-3 times higher, compared with other urban areas. The very high values of iron deposition (9,181) and manganese (348 mg.m-2.yr-1) were measured mainly at sites near the ironworks. The highest values of correlation coefficients were calculated by Pearson correlation analysis for the elements Fe, Mn and Cr but also for Al and PM. Higher values of correlation coefficients were calculated for the winter period. The monitored elements are bound to the insoluble component AD in the order of Fe, Al, Cr, Pb, Mn and As. Cadmium and zinc are preferably bound to the soluble phase for sites north of the ironworks. Significant differences for fluxes of AD of the most observed parameters were found between the summer and winter periods. In winter, higher values of AD were found for the elements Fe, Pb, Mn, Cr, and Cd. In the case of zinc and arsenic higher values were recorded in the summer period. The share of emission sources of iron and steelworks on the fluxes of iron at the urban sites in winter was more than doubled compared to the summer period. The smallest seasonal differences for all observed components were found at localities near the ironworks. Detailed analysis of AD showed that in addition to Fe, Mn, and Cr, the ironworks complex is also a source of dust particles, aluminum and other observed elements in descending order of lead, zinc, copper, arsenic and cadmium.

FDA-iRISK—A Comparative Risk Assessment System for Evaluating and Ranking Food-Hazard Pairs: Case Studies on Microbial Hazards

2013 ◽  
Vol 76 (3) ◽  
pp. 376-385 ◽  
Author(s):  
YUHUAN CHEN ◽  
SHERRI B. DENNIS ◽  
EMMA HARTNETT ◽  
GREG PAOLI ◽  
RÉGIS POUILLOT ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Case Studies ◽  
Assessment System ◽  
Process Models ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
The Public ◽  
Life Years ◽  
The Impact

Stakeholders in the system of food safety, in particular federal agencies, need evidence-based, transparent, and rigorous approaches to estimate and compare the risk of foodborne illness from microbial and chemical hazards and the public health impact of interventions. FDA-iRISK (referred to here as iRISK), a Web-based quantitative risk assessment system, was developed to meet this need. The modeling tool enables users to assess, compare, and rank the risks posed by multiple food-hazard pairs at all stages of the food supply system, from primary production, through manufacturing and processing, to retail distribution and, ultimately, to the consumer. Using standard data entry templates, built-in mathematical functions, and Monte Carlo simulation techniques, iRISK integrates data and assumptions from seven components: the food, the hazard, the population of consumers, process models describing the introduction and fate of the hazard up to the point of consumption, consumption patterns, dose-response curves, and health effects. Beyond risk ranking, iRISK enables users to estimate and compare the impact of interventions and control measures on public health risk. iRISK provides estimates of the impact of proposed interventions in various ways, including changes in the mean risk of illness and burden of disease metrics, such as losses in disability-adjusted life years. Case studies for Listeria monocytogenes and Salmonella were developed to demonstrate the application of iRISK for the estimation of risks and the impact of interventions for microbial hazards. iRISK was made available to the public at http://irisk.foodrisk.org in October 2012.

scholarly journals Imported dengue in Spain: a nationwide analysis with predictive time series analyses

2019 ◽  
Vol 26 (8) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lidia Redondo-Bravo ◽  
Claudia Ruiz-Huerta ◽  
Diana Gomez-Barroso ◽  
María José Sierra-Moros ◽  
Agustín Benito ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Severe Dengue ◽  
Vector Surveillance ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Temporal Behaviour ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Local Transmission

Abstract Background Of febrile illnesses in Europe, dengue is second only to malaria as a cause of travellers being hospitalized. Local transmission has been reported in several European countries, including Spain. This study assesses the evolution of dengue-related admissions in Spain in terms of time, geographical distribution and individuals’ common characteristics; it also creates a predictive model to evaluate the risk of local transmission. Methods This is a retrospective study using the Hospital Discharge Records Database from 1997 to 2016. We calculated hospitalization rates and described clinical characteristics. Spatial distribution and temporal behaviour were also assessed, and a predictive time series model was created to estimate expected cases in the near future. Figures for resident foreign population, Spanish residents’ trips to endemic regions and the expansion of Aedes albopictus were also evaluated. Results A total of 588 dengue-related admissions were recorded: 49.6% were women, and the mean age was 34.3 years. One person died (0.2%), 82% presented with mild-to-moderate dengue and 7–8% with severe dengue. We observed a trend of steady and consistent increase in incidence (P < 0.05), in parallel with the increase in trips to dengue-endemic regions. Most admissions occurred during the summer, showing significant seasonality with 3-year peaks. We also found important regional differences. According to the predictive time series analysis, a continuing increase in imported dengue incidence can be expected in the near future, which, in the worst case scenario (upper 95% confidence interval), would mean an increase of 65% by 2025. Conclusion We present a nationwide study based on hospital, immigration, travel and entomological data. The constant increase in dengue-related hospitalizations, in combination with wider vector distribution, could imply a higher risk of autochthonous dengue transmission in the years to come. Strengthening the human and vector surveillance systems is a necessity, as are improvements in control measures, in the education of the general public and in fostering their collaboration in order to reduce the impact of imported dengue and to prevent the occurrence of autochthonous cases.

scholarly journals Modelling respiratory infection control measure effects

2007 ◽  
Vol 136 (3) ◽  
pp. 299-308 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. M. LIAO ◽  
S. C. CHEN ◽  
C. F. CHANG
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Respiratory Infections ◽  
Control Measure ◽  
Infection Control Measure ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Integrated Analysis ◽  
Potential Control ◽  
Airborne Infection ◽  
Airborne Infections ◽  
The Impact

SUMMARYOne of the most pressing issues in facing emerging and re-emerging respiratory infections is how to bring them under control with current public health measures. Approaches such as the Wells–Riley equation, competing-risks model, and Von Foerster equation are used to prioritize control-measure efforts. Here we formulate how to integrate those three different types of functional relationship to construct easy-to-use and easy-to-interpret critical-control lines that help determine optimally the intervention strategies for containing airborne infections. We show that a combination of assigned effective public health interventions and enhanced engineering control measures would have a high probability for containing airborne infection. We suggest that integrated analysis to enhance modelling the impact of potential control measures against airborne infections presents an opportunity to assess risks and benefits. We demonstrate the approach with examples of optimal control measures to prioritize respiratory infections of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), influenza, measles, and chickenpox.

Developing and Sustaining Leadership in Public Health Nursing: Findings from One British Columbia Health Authority

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (4) ◽  
pp. 63-75 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leslie Mills ◽  
Sabrina Wong ◽  
Radhika Bhagat ◽  
Donna Quail ◽  
Kathy Triolet ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
British Columbia ◽  
Health Authority ◽  
Public Health Nursing ◽  
Health Nursing

scholarly journals Sexually Transmitted Infections, the Epidemic That Persists After the COVID-19 Pandemic: a Time-series Analysis of the Primary Care Electronic Health Records Covering About 5 Million People in Catalonia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carolina Guiriguet ◽  
Mireia Alberny ◽  
Ermengol Coma ◽  
Carme Roca ◽  
Francesc Fina ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Primary Care ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Electronic Health Records ◽  
Sexually Transmitted Infections ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Health Records ◽  
Future Evolution ◽  
Sexually Transmitted ◽  
Electronic Health ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background: The COVID-19 pandemic and related control measures have affected the diagnosis of other diseases, including sexually transmitted infections (STI). Our aim is to analyse the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the incidence of STI diagnosed in primary care.Methods: Time-series study of STI, using data from primary care electronic health records in Catalonia (Spain) from January 2016 to March 2021. We obtained the monthly expected incidence of STI using a temporary regression, where the response variable was the incidence of STI from 2016 to 2019 and the adjustment variables were the trend and seasonality of the time series. Excess or reduction of STI were defined as the number of observed minus the expected cases, globally and stratified by age, sexe, type of STI and socioeconomic status.Results: Between March 2020 and March 2021 we observed a reduction of 20.2% (95% CI: 13.0% to 25.8%) on STI diagnoses compared to the expected. This reduction was greater during the lockdown period (-39%), in women (-26.5%), in people aged under 60 years (up to -22.4% in people aged 30-59 years), less deprived areas (-24%) and some types of STI, specially chlamydia (-32%), gonorrhea (-30.7%) and HIV (-21.5%). Conversely, syphilis and non-specific STI were those with lesser reductions with -3.6% and -7.2%, respectively,Conclusions: The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted on STI incidence, reducing the number of diagnoses performed in primary care and raising concerns about future evolution of STI trends. Those STI that are less symptomatic or diagnosed through screening will deserve special attention regarding potential diagnostic delays.

scholarly journals Estimating the impact of COVID-19 control measures using a Bayesian model of physical distancing

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sean C. Anderson ◽  
Andrew M. Edwards ◽  
Madi Yerlanov ◽  
Nicola Mulberry ◽  
Jessica E. Stockdale ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
British Columbia ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Strong Impact ◽  
Contact Rate ◽  
Population Changes ◽  
Epidemic Curve ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
High Prevalence ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Testing Criteria

AbstractExtensive physical distancing measures are currently the primary intervention against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) worldwide. It is therefore urgent to estimate the impact such measures are having. We introduce a Bayesian epidemiological model in which a proportion of individuals are willing and able to participate in distancing measures, with the timing of these measures informed by survey data on attitudes to distancing and COVID-19. We fit our model to reported COVID-19 cases in British Columbia, Canada, using an observation model that accounts for both underestimation and the delay between symptom onset and reporting. We estimate the impact that physical distancing (also known as social distancing) has had on the contact rate and examine the projected impact of relaxing distancing measures. We find that distancing has had a strong impact, consistent with declines in reported cases and in hospitalization and intensive care unit numbers. We estimate that approximately 0.78 (0.66–0.89 90% CI) of contacts have been removed for individuals in British Columbia practising physical distancing and that this fraction is above the threshold of 0.45 at which prevalence is expected to grow. However, relaxing distancing measures beyond this threshold re-starts rapid exponential growth. Because the extent of underestimation is unknown, the data are consistent with a wide range in the prevalence of COVID-19 in the population; changes to testing criteria over time introduce additional uncertainty. Our projections indicate that intermittent distancing measures—if sufficiently strong and robustly followed— could control COVID-19 transmission, but that if distancing measures are relaxed too much, the epidemic curve would grow to high prevalence.

scholarly journals SEBUAH ALTERNATIF: INDEKS STUNTING SEBAGAI EVALUASI KEBIJAKAN INTERVENSI BALITA STUNTING DI INDONESIA

2021 ◽  
Vol 44 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-30
Author(s):  
Zenderi Wardani ◽  
Dadang Sukandar ◽  
Yayuk Farida Baliwati ◽  
Hadi Riyadi
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Sustainable Development Goals ◽  
Economic Productivity ◽  
Index Model ◽  
Development Goals ◽  
Evaluation Measure ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Children Under 5 ◽  
Dimension Index

The proportion of stunting above 20 percent indicates that there are still public health problems in Indonesia. The impact of stunting not only affects the stature but also affects the economic productivity of a country. The purpose of this study was to develop index models that are responsive stunting in children under-5 years in Indonesia. Development of the index model used mathematical formulations using the SDGs indicator and other relevant indicators. Aggregate data from 16-time series were selected from 34 provinces in Indonesia in the span of 4 years (2015 - 2018). Furthermore, the method of developing a stunting index in this study was carried out through the stages of standardization, weighting, aggregation and validation. The results showed that the stunting index model is an evaluation measure that is responsive to stunting interventions in infants (0-56 months) in Indonesia. The national stunting index from 2015 to 2018 increased although it was still in the medium category with index values of 69.77, 70.29, 70.30 and 72.74, respectively. This study recommended an increase in efforts to achieve dimension index values in the development pillars of environmental and economical, especially in the eastern regions of Indonesia and the divided provinces.ABSTRAK Proporsi stunting lebih dari 20 persen menunjukkan bahwa masih terdapat masalah kesehatan masyarakat di Indonesia. Dampak stunting tidak hanya mempengaruhi perawakan tetapi juga mempengaruhi produktifitas ekonomi suatu negara. Sebuah model sederhana dan responsif dalam bentuk indeks stunting dapat menjadi bagian dari pilar rencana aksi intervensi stunting tersebut di atas. Model indeks stunting pun diharapkan dapat membantu pengambil keputusan (decision maker) menyusun formulasi, implementasi dan evaluasi kebijakan dalam penanggulangan stunting untuk masa yang akan datang. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk mengembangkan model indeks stunting responsif pada anak balita di Indonesia. Pengembangan model indeks menggunakan formulasi matematis dengan menggunakan indikator Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) dan indikator terkait lainnya. Data agregat dari 16 time series dipilih dari 34 provinsi di Indonesia dalam kurun waktu 4 tahun (2015 - 2018). Selanjutnya metode pengembangan indeks stunting pada penelitian ini dilakukan melalui tahapan standardisasi, pembobotan, agregasi dan validasi. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa model indeks stunting pada penilitian ini merupakan ukuran evaluasi yang tanggap terhadap intervensi stunting pada bayi (0-56 bulan) di Indonesia. Indeks stunting nasional dari tahun 2015 sampai 2018 mengalami peningkatan meskipun masih dalam kategori sedang dengan nilai indeks masing-masing 69,77, 70,29, 70,30 dan 72,74. Studi ini merekomendasikan peningkatan upaya pencapaian nilai indeks dimensi pada pilar pembangunan lingkungan dan ekonomi khususnya di wilayah timur Indonesia dan daerah provinsi pemekaran.Kata kunci: Indeks stunting, evaluasi kebijakan, anak balita

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