scholarly journals Modelling respiratory infection control measure effects

2007 ◽  
Vol 136 (3) ◽  
pp. 299-308 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. M. LIAO ◽  
S. C. CHEN ◽  
C. F. CHANG

SUMMARYOne of the most pressing issues in facing emerging and re-emerging respiratory infections is how to bring them under control with current public health measures. Approaches such as the Wells–Riley equation, competing-risks model, and Von Foerster equation are used to prioritize control-measure efforts. Here we formulate how to integrate those three different types of functional relationship to construct easy-to-use and easy-to-interpret critical-control lines that help determine optimally the intervention strategies for containing airborne infections. We show that a combination of assigned effective public health interventions and enhanced engineering control measures would have a high probability for containing airborne infection. We suggest that integrated analysis to enhance modelling the impact of potential control measures against airborne infections presents an opportunity to assess risks and benefits. We demonstrate the approach with examples of optimal control measures to prioritize respiratory infections of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), influenza, measles, and chickenpox.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lukman Olagoke ◽  
Ahmet E. Topcu

BACKGROUND COVID-19 represents a serious threat to both national health and economic systems. To curb this pandemic, the World Health Organization (WHO) issued a series of COVID-19 public safety guidelines. Different countries around the world initiated different measures in line with the WHO guidelines to mitigate and investigate the spread of COVID-19 in their territories. OBJECTIVE The aim of this paper is to quantitatively evaluate the effectiveness of these control measures using a data-centric approach. METHODS We begin with a simple text analysis of coronavirus-related articles and show that reports on similar outbreaks in the past strongly proposed similar control measures. This reaffirms the fact that these control measures are in order. Subsequently, we propose a simple performance statistic that quantifies general performance and performance under the different measures that were initiated. A density based clustering of based on performance statistic was carried out to group countries based on performance. RESULTS The performance statistic helps evaluate quantitatively the impact of COVID-19 control measures. Countries tend show variability in performance under different control measures. The performance statistic has negative correlation with cases of death which is a useful characteristics for COVID-19 control measure performance analysis. A web-based time-line visualization that enables comparison of performances and cases across continents and subregions is presented. CONCLUSIONS The performance metric is relevant for the analysis of the impact of COVID-19 control measures. This can help caregivers and policymakers identify effective control measures and reduce cases of death due to COVID-19. The interactive web visualizer provides easily digested and quick feedback to augment decision-making processes in the COVID-19 response measures evaluation. CLINICALTRIAL Not Applicable


2013 ◽  
Vol 76 (3) ◽  
pp. 376-385 ◽  
Author(s):  
YUHUAN CHEN ◽  
SHERRI B. DENNIS ◽  
EMMA HARTNETT ◽  
GREG PAOLI ◽  
RÉGIS POUILLOT ◽  
...  

Stakeholders in the system of food safety, in particular federal agencies, need evidence-based, transparent, and rigorous approaches to estimate and compare the risk of foodborne illness from microbial and chemical hazards and the public health impact of interventions. FDA-iRISK (referred to here as iRISK), a Web-based quantitative risk assessment system, was developed to meet this need. The modeling tool enables users to assess, compare, and rank the risks posed by multiple food-hazard pairs at all stages of the food supply system, from primary production, through manufacturing and processing, to retail distribution and, ultimately, to the consumer. Using standard data entry templates, built-in mathematical functions, and Monte Carlo simulation techniques, iRISK integrates data and assumptions from seven components: the food, the hazard, the population of consumers, process models describing the introduction and fate of the hazard up to the point of consumption, consumption patterns, dose-response curves, and health effects. Beyond risk ranking, iRISK enables users to estimate and compare the impact of interventions and control measures on public health risk. iRISK provides estimates of the impact of proposed interventions in various ways, including changes in the mean risk of illness and burden of disease metrics, such as losses in disability-adjusted life years. Case studies for Listeria monocytogenes and Salmonella were developed to demonstrate the application of iRISK for the estimation of risks and the impact of interventions for microbial hazards. iRISK was made available to the public at http://irisk.foodrisk.org in October 2012.


Parasitology ◽  
1989 ◽  
Vol 99 (S1) ◽  
pp. S59-S79 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. M. Anderson ◽  
R. M. May ◽  
S. Gupta

SUMMARYThe paper examines non-linear dynamical phenomena in host—parasite interactions by reference to a series of different problems ranging from the impact on transmission of control measures based on vaccination and chemotherapy, to the effects of immunological responses targeted at different stages in a parasite's life-cycle. Throughout, simple mathematical models are employed to aid in interpretation. Analyses reveal that the influence of a defined control measure on the prevalence or intensity of infection, whether vaccination or drug treatment, is non-linearly related to the magnitude of control effort (as defined by the proportion of individuals vaccinated or treated with a drug). Consideration of the relative merits of gametocyte and sporozoite vaccines against malarial parasites suggests that very high levels of cohort immunization will be required to block transmission in endemic areas, with the former type of vaccine being more effective in reducing transmission for a defined level of coverage and the latter being better with respect to a reduction in morbidity. The inclusion of genetic elements in analyses of the transmission of helminth parasites reveals complex non-linear patterns of change in the abundance of different parasite genotypes under selection pressures imposed by either the host immunological defences or the application of chemotherapeutic agents. When resistance genes are present in parasite populations, the degree to which abundance can be suppressed by chemotherapy depends critically on the frequency and intensity of application, with intermediate values of the former being optimal. A more detailed consideration of the impact of immunological defences on parasite population growth within an individual host, by reference to the erythrocytic cycle of malaria, suggests that the effectiveness of a given immunological response is inversely related to the life-expectancy of the target stage in the parasite's developmental cycle.


2004 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 134-152 ◽  
Author(s):  
Foluso John Owotade ◽  
Adebola Fasunioro

Abstract Although identification of risks to dental healthcare workers has been explored in several industrialized nations, very little data is available from developing countries. This paper examines the occupational hazards present in the dental environment and reports survey results concerning attitudes and activities of a group of Nigerian dental care providers. A survey on occupational hazards was conducted among the clinical dental staff at the Dental Hospital of the Obafemi Awolowo University Teaching Hospital Complex, Ile-Ife in Osun State, Nigeria. Thirty eight of the forty staff responded, yielding a response rate of 95%. Subject ages ranged from 26 to 56 years with approximately 25% in the 31-46 year old bracket. All of the staff were aware of the occupational exposure to hazards, and the majority had attended seminars/workshops on the subject. Only five staff members (13.2%) owned a health insurance policy and 26 (68.4%) had been vaccinated against Hepatitis B infection. All dentists (24) had been vaccinated compared with only two non-dentists; this relationship was significant (p= 30.07, x2=0.000). Fourteen members of the clinical staff (36.8%) could recall a sharp injury in the past six months, and the majority (71.1%) had regular contact with dental amalgam. Wearing protective eye goggles was the least employed cross infection control measure, while backache was the most frequently experienced hazard in 47% of the subjects. The need for Hepatitis B vaccinations for all members of the staff was emphasized, and the enforcement of strict cross infection control measures was recommended. The physical activities and body positions that predispose workers to backaches were identified and staff education on the prevention of backaches was provided. Citation Fasunloro A, Owotade FJ. Occupational Hazards Among Clinical Dental Staff. J Contemp Dent Pract 2004 May;(5)2:134-152.


2015 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 32-36
Author(s):  
Ahmed Abdullah ◽  
Saira Afridi ◽  
Syed Imran Gillani

Objective:To evaluate infection control measure in a public sector dental hospital of Peshawar.Methodology:It was a cross sectional study conducted in Khyber college of Dentistry. Study subjects were Dental health care providers who were willing to participate in the study. A structured questionnaire was designed that included various categories of infection control. Data was entered into SPSS version 17. Descriptive statistics were applied and frequencies and percentages were obtained.Results:The results from the data shows that the overall score for the infection control standards were less than 50%. Among the various categories of infection control only personal hygiene standards showed good score (77.3%). Personal protective equipment score was adequate (61%) while hand hygiene score was inadequate (52%). The rest of the categories showed poor scores.Conclusion:The result of the study shows that majority of categories of infection control measures at Khyber college of Dentistry are inadequate or poor.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Bernal-Serrano ◽  
Hector Carrasco ◽  
Lindsay Palazuelos ◽  
Joel M. Mubiligi ◽  
Catherine Oswald ◽  
...  

The Mexican government’sapproach to COVID-19 is failing. The strategy—to care for those that require hospitalization (20% of all cases), deliver mass communication messages, and regulate social distancing following a stoplight system for the rest of the population-is not aggressive enough for prevention. An anemic public health approach with scarce testing and no contact tracing or quarantine, has led to a sky-rocketing number of new infections and deaths. If the current trend continues, Mexico will see around 130 thousand deaths by December and a 53% annualized rate of decrease in the GDP. The government must implement a clear federal strategy to stop the spread of the virus: widespread testing, isolation of symptomatic cases; tracing, and quarantiningof their contacts. This comprehensive public health strategy with targeted social support to protect the vulnerable is a proven approach. Through evaluating other countries’ programs and extrapolating lessons for the Mexican context, we demonstrate thatimplementing testing and contact tracing for all acute respiratory infections is feasible with Mexico’s current resources. A strategy where symptomatic patients are tested and isolated and contacts are quarantined, can suppress community spread, save lives, reduce suffering, decrease the burden on hospitals, and restart the economic activity earlier and in a safer way. The more we wait to implement comprehensive testing and tracing to suppress the epidemic, the more people will become infected, and the impact of this measures will decrease.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Madison Stoddard ◽  
Debra Van Egeren ◽  
Kaitlyn Johnson ◽  
Smriti Rao ◽  
Josh Furgeson ◽  
...  

Abstract Background: The word ‘pandemic’ conjures dystopian images of bodies stacked in the streets and societies on the brink of collapse. Despite this frightening picture, denialism and noncompliance with public health measures are common in the historical record, for example during the 1918 Influenza pandemic or the 2015 Ebola epidemic. The unique characteristics of SARS-CoV-2—its high basic reproduction number (R0), time-limited natural immunity and considerable potential for asymptomatic spread—exacerbate the public health repercussions of noncompliance with interventions (such as vaccines and masks) to limit disease transmission. Our work explores the rationality and impact of noncompliance with COVID-19 disease control measures. Methods: In this work, we used game theory to explore when noncompliance confers a perceived benefit to individuals. We then used epidemiological modeling to predict the impact of noncompliance on control of COVID-19, demonstrating that the presence of a noncompliant subpopulation prevents suppression of disease spread. Results: Our modeling demonstrating that noncompliance is a Nash equilibrium under a broad set of conditions, and that the existence of a noncompliant population can result in extensive endemic disease in the long-term after a return to pre-pandemic social and economic activity. Endemic disease poses a threat for both compliant and noncompliant individuals; all community members are protected if complete suppression is achieved, which is only possible with a high degree of compliance. For interventions that are highly effective at preventing disease spread, however, the consequences of noncompliance are borne disproportionately by noncompliant individuals. Conclusions: In sum, our work demonstrates the limits of free-market approaches to compliance with disease control measures during a pandemic. The act of noncompliance with disease intervention measures creates a negative externality, rendering COVID-19 disease control ineffective in the short term and making complete suppression impossible in the long term. Our work underscores the importance of developing effective strategies for prophylaxis through public health measures aimed at complete suppression and the need to focus on compliance at a population level.


2011 ◽  
Vol 140 (3) ◽  
pp. 542-553 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. BANI-YAGHOUB ◽  
R. GAUTAM ◽  
D. DÖPFER ◽  
C. W. KASPAR ◽  
R. IVANEK

SUMMARYThe effectiveness of environmental decontamination (ED) as a measure in the control of infectious diseases is controversial. This work quantifies the effectiveness of ED by analysing the transmission of pathogens from the environment to susceptible hosts in a Susceptible–Infected–Susceptible model. Analysis of the model shows that ED can render a population disease-free only when the duration of infection (D) is within a certain range. As host-to-host transmission rate is increased,Dfalls outside this range and the higher levels of ED have a diminishing return in reducing the number of infected hosts at endemic equilibrium. To avoid this, ED can be combined with other control measures, such as treating infected individuals to push the duration of infection into the specified range. We propose decision criteria and minimum ED efforts required for control policies to be effective.


2007 ◽  
Vol 28 (2_suppl2) ◽  
pp. S345-S356 ◽  
Author(s):  
Esther Schelling ◽  
Delia Grace ◽  
A. Lee Willingham ◽  
Tom Randolph

Background Developing countries face difficulties in sustainably utilizing tools to effectively implement control measures for zoonoses. This is mainly due to dispersed and heterogeneous smallholder livestock systems, predominance of informal markets, poor infrastructure and lack of resources to deliver information, interventions, and regulations. In addition, developing countries lack an evidence base for planning and targeting control efforts. Zoonotic infections are receiving more and more international attention as diseases of neglected and impoverished communities, at the intersection between livestock production, human health, and poverty. Objective To review research innovations and trends that can help identify and test targeted control strategies for zoonoses tailored to poor communities, focusing particularly on Africa. Methods Review of recommendations of relevant working groups and scientific literature. Results New and innovative research approaches promise to better capture the impact of zoonoses from a societal perspective and the perspective of poor livestock owners through more comprehensive frameworks that consider benefits of the control of zoonoses to the public health, livestock, and private sectors. It is challenging to better assure food safety in informal markets. Risk-based approaches with participatory elements provide a framework in which stakeholders can decide an appropriate level of protection to balance the needs for safe food, cheap food, and pro-poor economic growth. Appropriate information for all stakeholders and capacity-building of national and regional authorities is an important element of this process. New diagnostic tools that are accurate and easily used in developing-country health centers and markets can assist in reporting of cases, detection of patients, and testing of control strategies. Conclusions A research agenda on zoonoses of the livestock sector should be interdisciplinary and participatory and include intersectoral collaborations, notably between the livestock and public health sectors.


2014 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 128-130
Author(s):  
R Gupta ◽  
NA Ingle ◽  
N Kaur ◽  
HV Dubey ◽  
E Ingle

ABSTRACT Introduction CDC (Center for Disease Control & prevention), who proposed Universal Precautions, states that “Treat each patient as potentially risk”. Therefore, it is our basic responsibility to control the spread of such devastating diseases by following infection control measures. Aims & Objectives To assess the various personal protective measures adapted by dental practitioners in Agra city and to know how many dentists are vaccinated against Hepatitis B for prevention of the spread of this disease. Materials and Methods The study included response using questionnaire from 150 dental practitioners from Agra city, chosen by random sampling. Questions were related to their personal protective measures employed by the dental practitioners and information about their prophylaxis against Hepatitis B was also obtained. Results Among the dental practitioners, 80% were males. Approximately 82% of the dental practitioners were vaccinated against HBV. Only 6% followed the CDC recommendations for hand washing practices, and about 64% dental practitioners gave wrong answers related to droplet infection. Conclusion Lack of awareness regarding universal precautions proposed by CDC is observed among dental practitioners. There is a great need for creating awareness among dental practitioners.


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