scholarly journals Modeling of COVID-19 Transmission Dynamics on US Population: Inter-transfer Infection in Age Groups, Mutant Variants, and Vaccination Strategies

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jyotirmoy Roy ◽  
Samuel Heath ◽  
Doraiswami Ramkrishna ◽  
Shiyan Wang
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Large Fraction ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
The United States ◽  
Vaccination Strategies ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Mutant Variant ◽  
High Infection ◽  
Control And Prevention ◽  
Vaccine Distribution

The in-depth understanding of the dynamics of COVID-19 transmission among different age groups is of great interest for governments and health authorities so that strategies can be devised to reduce the pandemic's detrimental effects. We developed the SIRDV-Virulence epidemiological model based on a population balance equation to study the effect of mutants of the virus and the effect of vaccination strategies on mitigating the transmission among the population in the United States. Based on the available data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), we obtain the key parameters governing the dynamic evolution of the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. In the context studied, the results show that a large fraction of infected cases comes from the adult and children populations in the presence of a mutant variant of COVID-19 with high infection rates. We further investigate the optimum vaccine distribution strategy among different age groups. Given the current situation in the United States, the results show that prioritizing children and adult vaccinations over that of seniors can contain the spread of the active cases, thereby preventing the healthcare system from being overwhelmed and minimizing subsequent deaths. The model suggests that the only option to curb the effects of this pandemic is to reduce the population of unvaccinated individuals. A higher fraction of 'Anti/Non-vaxxers' can lead to the resurgence of the pandemic.

scholarly journals 2765. Pediatric Mumps during the 2015–2017 Mumps Resurgence in the United States

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (Supplement_2) ◽  
pp. S975-S975
Author(s):  
Mariel Marlow ◽  
John Zhang ◽  
Nakia S Clemmons ◽  
Mona Marin ◽  
Manisha Patel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Children And Adolescents ◽  
Surveillance System ◽  
Pediatric Patients ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Exposure Period ◽  
The United States ◽  
College Campuses ◽  
Control And Prevention ◽  
Low Rate

Abstract Background Numerous mumps outbreaks occurred in the United States over the last decade, with outbreaks affecting young adults on college campuses being among the largest and most widely publicized. However, at least half of mumps cases and outbreaks occurred in other age-groups and settings. We describe reported mumps cases among children and adolescents during 2015 through 2017. Methods The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) analyzed reports of confirmed and probable mumps cases in persons aged ≤18 years (defined here as pediatric mumps) transmitted electronically through the Nationally Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System (NNDSS) by the 52 reporting jurisdictions. Results Between January 1, 2015 and December 31, 2017, 49 jurisdictions reported 4,886 pediatric mumps cases (35% of all US reported cases, 13,807); 8 jurisdictions reported >100 cases each, representing 82% of all pediatric cases. Overall, 29 (1%) cases were in infants <1 yr, 406 (8%) were in children aged 1–4 years, 1,408 (29%) in children aged 5–10 years, 1,365 (28%) in adolescents aged 11–14 years, and 1,678 (34%) in adolescents aged 15–18 years. Most (3,548, 73%) cases did not travel outside the state during their exposure period; only 37 (1%) traveled outside the country. Cases in patients aged 1–4 years were more frequently non-outbreak associated (38%) than those in patients <1 years and 5–18 years (24% and 9%, respectively). Among 3,309 (68%) patients with known number of MMR doses received, 81% of those 5–18 years had ≥2 MMR doses, while 67% of those 1–4 years had ≥1 dose. Median time since last MMR dose for patients with 2 doses was 8 years (IQR: 4, 11 years). Four patients had meningitis and 1 had encephalitis; all were ≥10 years old and previously received 2 MMR doses. Of male mumps patients older than 10 years of age (2,113), 46 (2%) reported having orchitis; of these, 33 (72%) had 2 MMR doses. Sixty-four patients were hospitalized and there were no deaths. Conclusion About one-third of cases reported during the recent US mumps resurgence were in children and adolescents. The low rate of mumps complications compared with previous studies suggests mumps complications may not be adequately captured in national surveillance or identified by providers. Providers should remain vigilant that mumps can still occur among fully vaccinated pediatric patients, even those recently vaccinated. Disclosures All authors: No reported disclosures.

scholarly journals COVID-19 and Treatment and Immunization of Children—The Time to Redefine Pediatric Age Groups is Here

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. e0010
Author(s):  
Klaus Rose ◽  
◽  
Jane M. Grant-Kels ◽  
Earl B. Ettienne ◽  
Oishi Tanjinatus ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Drug Approval ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Body ◽  
Kawasaki Syndrome ◽  
Pediatric Age ◽  
Prevention And Treatment ◽  
Control And Prevention ◽  
Inflammatory Syndrome

Children are infected with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) as often as adults, but with fewer symptoms. During the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, multisystem inflammatory syndrome (MIS) in children (MIS-C), with symptoms similar to Kawasaki syndrome, was described in young minors testing positive for COVID-19. The United States (US) Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) defined MIS-C as occurring in <21-year-olds, triggering hundreds of PubMed-listed papers. However, postpubertal adolescents are no longer children biologically; the term MIS-C is misleading. Furthermore, MIS also occurs in adults, termed MIS-A by the CDC. Acute and delayed inflammations can be triggered by COVID-19. The 18th birthday is an administrative not a biological age limit, whereas the body matures slowly during puberty. This blur in defining children leads to confusion regarding MIS-C/MIS-A. United States and European Union (EU) drug approval is handled separately for children, defined as <18-year-olds, ascribing non-existent physical characteristics up to the 18th birthday. This blur between the administrative and the physiological meanings for the term child is causing flawed demands for pediatric studies in all drugs and vaccines, including those against COVID-19. Effective treatment of all conditions, including COVID-19, should be based on actual physiological need. Now, the flawed definition for children in the development of drugs and vaccines and their approval is negatively impacting prevention and treatment of COVID-19 in minors. This review reveals the necessity for redefining pediatric age groups to rapidly establish recommendations for optimal prevention and treatment in minors.

scholarly journals Initial economic damage from the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States is more widespread across ages and geographies than initial mortality impacts

2020 ◽  
Vol 117 (45) ◽  
pp. 27934-27939 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Polyakova ◽  
Geoffrey Kocks ◽  
Victoria Udalova ◽  
Amy Finkelstein
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
New York ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Damage ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Policy Responses ◽  
All Cause Mortality ◽  
Control And Prevention

The economic and mortality impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic have been widely discussed, but there is limited evidence on their relationship across demographic and geographic groups. We use publicly available monthly data from January 2011 through April 2020 on all-cause death counts from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and employment from the Current Population Survey to estimate excess all-cause mortality and employment displacement in April 2020 in the United States. We report results nationally and separately by state and by age group. Nationally, excess all-cause mortality was 2.4 per 10,000 individuals (about 30% higher than reported COVID deaths in April) and employment displacement was 9.9 per 100 individuals. Across age groups 25 y and older, excess mortality was negatively correlated with economic damage; excess mortality was largest among the oldest (individuals 85 y and over: 39.0 per 10,000), while employment displacement was largest among the youngest (individuals 25 to 44 y: 11.6 per 100 individuals). Across states, employment displacement was positively correlated with excess mortality (correlation = 0.29). However, mortality was highly concentrated geographically, with the top two states (New York and New Jersey) each experiencing over 10 excess deaths per 10,000 and accounting for about half of national excess mortality. By contrast, employment displacement was more geographically spread, with the states with the largest point estimates (Nevada and Michigan) each experiencing over 16 percentage points employment displacement but accounting for only 7% of the national displacement. These results suggest that policy responses may differentially affect generations and geographies.

scholarly journals Users’ Beliefs Toward Physical Distancing in Facebook Pages of Public Health Authorities During COVID-19 Pandemic in Early 2020

2021 ◽  
pp. 109019812110144
Author(s):  
Soon Guan Tan ◽  
Aravind Sesagiri Raamkumar ◽  
Hwee Lin Wee
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health Belief Model ◽  
United States Public Health ◽  
Health Belief ◽  
The United States ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Public Health Authorities ◽  
Control And Prevention ◽  
Belief Model ◽  
The Health Belief Model

This study aims to describe Facebook users’ beliefs toward physical distancing measures implemented during the Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic using the key constructs of the health belief model. A combination of rule-based filtering and manual classification methods was used to classify user comments on COVID-19 Facebook posts of three public health authorities: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention of the United States, Public Health England, and Ministry of Health, Singapore. A total of 104,304 comments were analyzed for posts published between 1 January, 2020, and 31 March, 2020, along with COVID-19 cases and deaths count data from the three countries. Findings indicate that the perceived benefits of physical distancing measures ( n = 3,463; 3.3%) was three times higher than perceived barriers ( n = 1,062; 1.0%). Perceived susceptibility to COVID-19 ( n = 2,934; 2.8%) was higher compared with perceived severity ( n = 2,081; 2.0%). Although susceptibility aspects of physical distancing were discussed more often at the start of the year, mentions on the benefits of intervention emerged stronger toward the end of the analysis period, highlighting the shift in beliefs. The health belief model is useful for understanding Facebook users’ beliefs at a basic level, and it provides a scope for further improvement.

scholarly journals Incidence of Benign Meningiomas in the United States: Current and Future Trends

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sonia Bhala ◽  
Douglas R Stewart ◽  
Victoria Kennerley ◽  
Valentina I Petkov ◽  
Philip S Rosenberg ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Cancer Registries ◽  
Health Impact ◽  
The United States ◽  
Birth Cohorts ◽  
Benign Meningioma ◽  
Case Count ◽  
Future Burden ◽  
Rate Ratios

Abstract Background Benign meningiomas are the most frequently reported central nervous system tumors in the United States (US), with increasing incidence in past decades. However, the future trajectory of this neoplasm remains unclear. Methods We analyzed benign meningioma incidence of cases identified by any means (eg, radiographically with or without microscopic confirmation) in US Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) cancer registries among 35–84-year-olds during 2004–2017 by sex and race/ethnicity using age-period-cohort (APC) models. We employed APC forecasting models to glean insights regarding the etiology, distribution, and anticipated future (2018–2027) public health impact of this neoplasm. Results In all groups, meningioma incidence overall increased through 2010, then stabilized. Temporal declines were statistically significant overall and in most groups. JoinPoint analysis of cohort rate-ratios identified substantial acceleration in White men born after 1963 (from 1.1% to 3.2% per birth year); cohort rate-ratios were stable or increasing in all groups and all birth cohorts. We forecast that meningioma incidence through 2027 will remain stable or decrease among 55–84-year-olds but remain similar to current levels among 35–54-year-olds. Total meningioma burden in 2027 is expected to be approximately 30,470 cases, similar to the expected case count of 27,830 in 2018. Conclusions Between 2004–2017, overall incidence of benign meningioma increased and then stabilized or declined. For 2018–2027, our forecast is incidence will remain generally stable in younger age groups but decrease in older age groups. Nonetheless, the total future burden will remain similar to current levels because the population is aging.

Firearm Injuries Affecting the Pediatric Population

PEDIATRICS ◽  
1992 ◽  
Vol 89 (4) ◽  
pp. 788-790
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Children And Adolescents ◽  
Pediatric Population ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Unintentional Injury ◽  
The United States ◽  
Male Adolescents ◽  
Firearm Injuries ◽  
Group 2 ◽  
Developed Nations

In the United States approximately 30 000 people die from firearm injuries each year. Many more are wounded. In the mid 1980s, more than 3000 of the dead were children and adolescents aged 1 to 19 years.1 In 1989 nearly 4000 firearm deaths were among children 1 to 19 years of age, accounting for 12% of all deaths in that age group.2 All of these deaths or injuries affect other children because the victims who are killed or wounded are frequently relatives, neighbors, or friends. Comparison data for childhood age groups demonstrate that in 1987, 203 children aged 1 to 9 years, 484 children aged 10 to 14 years, and 2705 adolescents aged 15 to 19 years died as a result of firearm injuries.1 Firearm deaths include unintentional injuries, homicides, and suicides. Among the 1- to 9-year-olds, half of the deaths were homicides and half were unintentional. Among the 10- to 14-year-olds, one third of the deaths were homicides, one third were suicides, and one third were unintentional. Among the 15- to 19-year-olds, 48% were homicides, 42% were suicides, and 8% were unintentional.1 Firearm homicides are the leading cause of death for some US subpopulations, such as urban black male adolescents and young adults.3 Table 1 indicates how firearms contributed to the deaths of children and adolescents (homicides, suicides, and all causes) in 1987. Table 2 illustrates the unusual scale of firearm violence affecting young people in the United States compared with other developed nations.4 Firearm injuries are the fourth leading cause of unintentional injury deaths to children younger than 15 years of age in the US.5

The Under-Enrollment of HIV-infected Foster Children in Clinical Trials and Protocols and the Need for Corrective State Action

1994 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
pp. 231-249
Author(s):  
Briar McNutt
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
New York ◽  
Hiv Infection ◽  
The United States ◽  
Hiv And Aids ◽  
Medical Community ◽  
State Action ◽  
Pediatric Aids ◽  
Control And Prevention ◽  
Year 2000

The incidence of HIV infection and AIDS in children has grown at an alarming rate. Approximately one million children worldwide have HIV infection. By the year 2000, an estimated ten million children will suffer from the disease. Currently, the United States has a population of an estimated 10,000 to 20,000 HIV-infected children. As of June 30, 1993, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported 4,710 known AIDS cases in children twelve years-old and younger. At that point, New York City reported 1,124 pediatric AIDS cases which represented twenty-four percent of all cases in the United States.With the rising number of HIV-infected children, the medical community in the United States has begun to search for HIV-and AIDS-related treatments particularized for children. In addition to establishing guidelines for HIV-infected children's frequent check-ups and timely immunizations, the medical community has initiated research studies involving HIV-infected children.

Abstract P636: Social Determinants of Stroke Hospitalization and Mortality in the United States

Stroke ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 52 (Suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Randhir Sagar Yadav ◽  
Durgesh Chaudhary ◽  
Shima Shahjouei ◽  
Jiang Li ◽  
Vida Abedi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Income Inequality ◽  
Social Determinants ◽  
Hemorrhagic Stroke ◽  
The United States ◽  
Care Physician ◽  
County Level ◽  
Medicare Beneficiaries ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Control And Prevention

Introduction: Stroke hospitalization and mortality are influenced by various social determinants. This ecological study aimed to determine the associations between social determinants and stroke hospitalization and outcome at county-level in the United States. Methods: County-level data were recorded from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention as of January 7, 2020. We considered four outcomes: all-age (1) Ischemic and (2) Hemorrhagic stroke Death rates per 100,000 individuals (ID and HD respectively), and (3) Ischemic and (4) Hemorrhagic stroke Hospitalization rate per 1,000 Medicare beneficiaries (IH and HH respectively). Results: Data of 3,225 counties showed IH (12.5 ± 3.4) and ID (22.2 ± 5.1) were more frequent than HH (2.0 ± 0.4) and HD (9.8 ± 2.1). Income inequality as expressed by Gini Index was found to be 44.6% ± 3.6% and unemployment rate was 4.3% ± 1.5%. Only 29.8% of the counties had at least one hospital with neurological services. The uninsured rate was 11.0% ± 4.7% and people living within half a mile of a park was only 18.7% ± 17.6%. Age-adjusted obesity rate was 32.0% ± 4.5%. In regression models, age-adjusted obesity (OR for IH: 1.11; HH: 1.04) and number of hospitals with neurological services (IH: 1.40; HH: 1.50) showed an association with IH and HH. Age-adjusted obesity (ID: 1.16; HD: 1.11), unemployment (ID: 1.21; HD: 1.18) and income inequality (ID: 1.09; HD: 1.11) showed an association with ID and HD. Park access showed inverse associations with all four outcomes. Additionally, population per primary-care physician was associated with HH while number of pharmacy and uninsured rate were associated with ID. All associations and OR had p ≤0.04. Conclusion: Unemployment and income inequality are significantly associated with increased stroke mortality rates.

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