Omicron strain spreads with the doubling time of 3.2-3.6 days in South Africa province of Gauteng that achieved herd immunity to Delta variant
Omicron, the novel, highly mutated SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern (belonging to the Pango lineage B.1.1.529), was first collected on November 8, 2021, in Gauteng province of South Africa. By the end of November 2021 it has spread towards fixation in Gauteng and was detected on all continents. Based on data collected till December 7, 2021, we showed the exponential growth of the Omicron variant over the four-week period in Gauteng (November 8-December 5, 2021) with the doubling time equal 3.38 day [CI 95%: 3.18-3.61 day]. Log-linear regression suggests that the spread began around October 10, 2021, however due to stochasticity in the initial spread this estimate is likely inaccurate. Phylogenetic analysis indicates that the Omicron strain started to diverge in between October 28 and November 5, 2021. This implies that the hidden spread of Omicron before October 10, 2021 (which would suggest slower strain growth) is unlikely. The very short doubling time of Omicron in Gauteng, a province that has reached herd immunity to the Delta variant (implied by the decrease of the weekly number of cases between July and October, 2021, at no significant mobility restrictions), suggests that Omicron will cause abrupt outbreaks of COVID-19 epidemics across the world, and will become the (temporarily) dominant strain.