Distinguishing genetic correlation from causation across 52 diseases and complex traits

Mendelian randomization (MR) is widely used to identify causal relationships among heritable traits, but it can be confounded by genetic correlations reflecting shared etiology. We propose a model in which a latent causal variable mediates the genetic correlation between two traits. Under the latent causal variable (LCV) model, trait 1 is fully genetically causal for trait 2 if it is perfectly genetically correlated with the latent causal variable, implying that the entire genetic component of trait 1 is causal for trait 2; it is partially genetically causal for trait 2 if it has a high genetic correlation with the latent variable, implying that part of the genetic component of trait 1 is causal for trait 2. To quantify the degree of partial genetic causality, we define the genetic causality proportion (gcp). We fit this model using mixed fourth moments E(α1α2) and E(α1α2) of marginal effect sizes for each trait, exploiting the fact that if trait 1 is causal for trait 2 then SNPs affecting trait 1 (large ) will have correlated effects on trait 2 (large α1α2), but not vice versa. We performed simulations under a wide range of genetic architectures and determined that LCV, unlike state-of-the-art MR methods, produced well-calibrated false positive rates and reliable gcp estimates in the presence of genetic correlations and asymmetric genetic architectures; we also determined that LCV is well-powered to detect a causal effect. We applied LCV to GWAS summary statistics for 52 traits (average N=331k), identifying partially or fully genetically causal effects (1% FDR) for 59 pairs of traits, including 30 pairs of traits with high gcp estimates (gĉp > 0.6). Results consistent with the published literature included genetically causal effects on myocardial infarction (MI) for LDL, triglycerides and BMI. Novel findings included a genetically causal effect of LDL on bone mineral density, consistent with clinical trials of statins in osteoporosis. These results demonstrate that it is possible to distinguish between genetic correlation and causation using genetic data.