scholarly journals Leveraging pathogen community distributions to understand outbreak and emergence potential

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tad A. Dallas ◽  
Colin J. Carlson ◽  
Timothée Poisot
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Influenza Pandemic ◽  
Ecological Perspective ◽  
Disease Forecasting ◽  
Predictive Capacity ◽  
Stochastic Nature ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Vector Borne ◽  
Events Data ◽  
Over Time

ABSTRACTUnderstanding pathogen outbreak and emergence events has important implications to the management of infectious disease. Apart from preempting infectious disease events, there is considerable interest in determining why certain pathogens are consistently found in some regions, and why others spontaneously emerge or reemerge over time. Here, we use a trait-free approach which leverages information on the global community of human infectious diseases to estimate the potential for pathogen outbreak, emergence, and re-emergence events over time. Our approach uses pairwise dissimilarities among pathogen distributions between countries and country-level pathogen composition to quantify pathogen outbreak, emergence, and re-emergence potential as a function of time (e.g., number of years between training and prediction), pathogen type (e.g., virus), and transmission mode (e.g., vector-borne). We find that while outbreak and re-emergence potential are well captured by our simple model, prediction of emergence events remains elusive, and sudden global emergences like an influenza pandemic seem beyond the predictive capacity of the model. While our approach allows for dynamic predictability of outbreak and re-emergence events, data deficiencies and the stochastic nature of emergence events may preclude accurate prediction. Together, our results make a compelling case for incorporating a community ecological perspective into existing disease forecasting efforts.

scholarly journals Human infectious disease burdens decrease with urbanization but not with biodiversity

2017 ◽  
Vol 372 (1722) ◽  
pp. 20160122 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chelsea L. Wood ◽  
Alex McInturff ◽  
Hillary S. Young ◽  
DoHyung Kim ◽  
Kevin D. Lafferty
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Scientific Evidence ◽  
Dilution Effect ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Global Public Health ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Life Years ◽  
Over Time

Infectious disease burdens vary from country to country and year to year due to ecological and economic drivers. Recently, Murray et al. (Murray CJ et al . 2012 Lancet 380 , 2197–2223. ( doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(12)61689-4 )) estimated country-level morbidity and mortality associated with a variety of factors, including infectious diseases, for the years 1990 and 2010. Unlike other databases that report disease prevalence or count outbreaks per country, Murray et al. report health impacts in per-person disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), allowing comparison across diseases with lethal and sublethal health effects. We investigated the spatial and temporal relationships between DALYs lost to infectious disease and potential demographic, economic, environmental and biotic drivers, for the 60 intermediate-sized countries where data were available and comparable. Most drivers had unique associations with each disease. For example, temperature was positively associated with some diseases and negatively associated with others, perhaps due to differences in disease agent thermal optima, transmission modes and host species identities. Biodiverse countries tended to have high disease burdens, consistent with the expectation that high diversity of potential hosts should support high disease transmission. Contrary to the dilution effect hypothesis, increases in biodiversity over time were not correlated with improvements in human health, and increases in forestation over time were actually associated with increased disease burden. Urbanization and wealth were associated with lower burdens for many diseases, a pattern that could arise from increased access to sanitation and healthcare in cities and increased investment in healthcare. The importance of urbanization and wealth helps to explain why most infectious diseases have become less burdensome over the past three decades, and points to possible levers for further progress in improving global public health. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Conservation, biodiversity and infectious disease: scientific evidence and policy implications’.

scholarly journals Testing predictability of disease outbreaks with a simple model of pathogen biogeography

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (11) ◽  
pp. 190883 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tad A. Dallas ◽  
Colin J. Carlson ◽  
Timothée Poisot
Keyword(s):  
Simple Model ◽  
Disease Surveillance ◽  
Influenza Pandemic ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Success Rates ◽  
Predictive Capacity ◽  
Public Health Professionals ◽  
Single Location ◽  
Vector Borne ◽  
Basic Network

Predicting disease emergence and outbreak events is a critical task for public health professionals and epidemiologists. Advances in global disease surveillance are increasingly generating datasets that are worth more than their component parts for prediction-oriented work. Here, we use a trait-free approach which leverages information on the global community of human infectious diseases to predict the biogeography of pathogens through time. Our approach takes pairwise dissimilarities between countries’ pathogen communities and pathogens’ geographical distributions and uses these to predict country–pathogen associations. We compare the success rates of our model for predicting pathogen outbreak, emergence and re-emergence potential as a function of time (e.g. number of years between training and prediction), pathogen type (e.g. virus) and transmission mode (e.g. vector-borne). With only these simple predictors, our model successfully predicts basic network structure up to a decade into the future. We find that while outbreak and re-emergence potential are especially well captured by our simple model, prediction of emergence events remains more elusive, and sudden global emergences like an influenza pandemic are beyond the predictive capacity of the model. However, these stochastic pandemic events are unlikely to be predictable from such coarse data. Together, our model is able to use the information on the existing country–pathogen network to predict pathogen outbreaks fairly well, suggesting the importance in considering information on co-occurring pathogens in a more global view even to estimate outbreak events in a single location or for a single pathogen.

scholarly journals Huanglongbing Model under the Control Strategy of Discontinuous Removal of Infected Trees

Symmetry ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 1164
Author(s):  
Weiwei Ling ◽  
Pinxia Wu ◽  
Xiumei Li ◽  
Liangjin Xie
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Global Stability ◽  
Control Strategy ◽  
Theoretical Basis ◽  
Dynamic Properties ◽  
Transmission Mechanism ◽  
Basic Reproductive Number ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Vector Borne ◽  
Citrus Trees

By using differential equations with discontinuous right-hand sides, a dynamic model for vector-borne infectious disease under the discontinuous removal of infected trees was established after understanding the transmission mechanism of Huanglongbing (HLB) disease in citrus trees. Through calculation, the basic reproductive number of the model can be attained and the properties of the model are discussed. On this basis, the existence and global stability of the calculated equilibria are verified. Moreover, it was found that different I0 in the control strategy cannot change the dynamic properties of HLB disease. However, the lower the value of I0, the fewer HLB-infected citrus trees, which provides a theoretical basis for controlling HLB disease and reducing expenditure.

scholarly journals 124. Six-year Longitudinal Analysis of an Inpatient Infectious Diseases Telemedicine Service at a Community Hospital

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. S191-S192
Author(s):  
Nupur Gupta ◽  
Adit B Sanghvi ◽  
John Mellors ◽  
Rima Abdel-Massih
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Tertiary Care ◽  
Medical Officer ◽  
Rural Hospital ◽  
Hospital Length Of Stay ◽  
Observation Study ◽  
Patient Acuity ◽  
Telemedicine Service ◽  
Tertiary Care Centers ◽  
Over Time

Abstract Background Telemedicine (TM) has emerged as a viable solution to extend infectious disease (ID) expertise to communities without access to this specialty.1 TM allows clinicians in rural settings to connect with specialists at distant sites and provide the best care for their patients, often eliminating the need for hospital transfers. Here, we describe the experience from one of the longest standing inpatient Tele-ID consult services using live audio-video (AV) visits with the assistance of a telepresenter. Methods Longitudinal data were collected from a 126-bed rural hospital in Pennsylvania that had no access to ID consultation before 2014. Live AV consults during business hours began in 2014 and telephonic physician to physician consults were made available 24/7. All ID consult data were extracted from the hospital electronic health record between 2014 to 2019. Key outcomes assessed included the number of consult encounters, total hospital length of stay (LOS), discharges to home, transfer to tertiary care centers, and readmission rates at 30 days. Results Most consulted patients were Caucasians, and females with an average age of 64.7 years (Table 1). The number of unique consult encounters increased annually from 111 in 2014 to 469 in 2019 (Table 1). The Charlson Comorbidity Score and Elixhauser Comorbidity Index also increased each year beginning in 2016 (Table 1). By contrast, LOS decreased each year as did the 30-day readmission rate (Table 2). Most patients were not transferred (average 89.4% over 6 years) to tertiary care centers and more than half were discharged to home each year (Table 2). Conclusion This longitudinal 6-year observation study of an inpatient TM ID service at a rural hospital showed remarkable annual growth in consult encounters (total growth >400%). Despite increasing patient acuity, overall hospital LOS decreased over time (10.2 to 8.2 days). Patient transfers to tertiary care centers remained low (average 10.5% over 6 years) as did 30-day readmissions (average 16.3% over 6 years). The majority of patients were discharged to home (average 61.3% over 6 years). These findings show that a rural inpatient TM ID consult service can expand over time and is an effective alternative for hospitals without access to ID expertise. Disclosures John Mellors, MD, Abound Bio (Shareholder)Accelevir Diagnostics (Consultant)Co-Crystal Pharmaceuticals (Shareholder)Gilead (Consultant, Grant/Research Support)Merck (Consultant) Rima Abdel-Massih, MD, Infectious Disease Connect (Shareholder, Other Financial or Material Support, Chief Medical Officer)

scholarly journals Using prediction polling for infectious disease forecasting

2020 ◽  
Vol 101 ◽  
pp. 374
Author(s):  
T. Sell ◽  
L. Warmbrod ◽  
M. Trotochaud ◽  
S. Ravi ◽  
E. Martin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Disease Forecasting

scholarly journals Psychology in an Indeterminate World

2021 ◽  
pp. 174569162095800
Author(s):  
Ludger van Dijk
Keyword(s):  
Human Activity ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Ecological Perspective ◽  
Ecological Approach ◽  
Material World ◽  
Psychological Science ◽  
Nonhuman Animals ◽  
The World ◽  
Indeterminate World ◽  
Over Time

By sharing their world, humans and other animals sustain each other. Their world gets determined over time as generations of animals act in it. Current approaches to psychological science, by contrast, start from the assumption that the world is already determined before an animal’s activity. These approaches seem more concerned with uncertainty about the world than with the practical indeterminacies of the world humans and nonhuman animals experience. As human activity is making life increasingly hard for other animals, this preoccupation becomes difficult to accept. This article introduces an ecological approach to psychology to develop a view that centralizes the indeterminacies of a shared world. Specifically, it develops an open-ended notion of “affordances,” the possibilities for action offered by the environment. Affordances are processes in which (a) the material world invites individual animals to participate, while (b) participation concurrently continues the material world in a particular way. From this point of view, species codetermine the world together. Several empirical and methodological implications of this view on affordances are explored. The article ends with an explanation of how an ecological perspective brings responsibility for the shared world to the heart of psychological science.

scholarly journals What is Communicable? Unaccounted Injuries and “Catching” Diabetes in an Illegible Epidemic

2019 ◽  
Vol 34 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Amy Moran-Thomas
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Communicable Disease ◽  
Treatment Access ◽  
Infectious Disease Transmission ◽  
The World ◽  
Historically Situated ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Non Communicable Disease

Long-accepted models of causality cast diseases into the binary of either “contagious” or “non-communicable,” typically with institutional resources focused primarily on interrupting infectious disease transmission. But in southern Belize, as in much of the world today, epidemic diabetes has become a leading cause of death and a notorious contributor to organ failure and amputated limbs. This ethnographic essay follows caregivers’ and families’ work to survive in-between public health categories, and asks what responses a bifurcated model of infectious versus non-communicable disease structures or incapacitates in practice. It proposes an alternative focus on diabetes as a “para-communicable” condition—materially transmitted as bodies and ecologies intimately shape each other over time, with unequal and compounding effects for historically situated groups of people. The article closes by querying how communicability relates to community, and why it matters to reframe narratives about contributing causalities in relation to struggles for treatment access.

scholarly journals Management of insecticides for use in disease vector control: a global survey

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henk van den Berg ◽  
Haroldo Sergio da Silva Bezerra ◽  
Emmanuel Chanda ◽  
Samira Al-Eryani ◽  
Bhupender Nath Nagpal ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Vector Control ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Worker Safety ◽  
External Support ◽  
Vector Borne Diseases ◽  
Global Survey ◽  
Pesticide Management ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Vector Borne

Abstract Background: Vector control plays a critical role in the prevention, control and elimination of vector-borne diseases, and interventions of vector control continue to depend largely on the action of chemical insecticides. A global survey was conducted on the management practices of vector control insecticides at country level to identify gaps to inform future strategies on pesticide management, seeking to improve efficacy of interventions and reduce the side effects of chemicals used on health and the environment.Methods: A survey by questionnaire on the management practices of vector control insecticides was disseminated among all WHO Member States. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics.Results: Responses were received from 94 countries, or a 48% response rate . Capacity for insecticide resistance monitoring was established in 68-80% of the countries in most regions, often with external support; however, this capacity was largely lacking from the European & Others Region. Procurement of vector control insecticides was in 50-75% of countries taking place by agencies other than the central-level procuring agency, over which the central authorities lacked control, for example, to select the product or assure product quality. Moreover, some countries experienced problems with estimating the correct amounts for procurement, especially for emergency purposes. Large fractions of countries across regions showed shortcomings in worker safety, pesticide storage practices, and pesticide waste disposal. Shortcomings were most pronounced in countries of the European & Others region, which has long been relatively free from mosquito-borne diseases but have recently faced challenges of re-emerging vector-borne diseases.Conclusions: Critical shortcomings in the management of vector control insecticides are common in countries across regions, with risks of adverse pesticide effects on health and the environment. Advocacy and resource mobilization are needed at regional and country level to address these challenges.

scholarly journals O movimento do acesso ao ensino superior em Portugal de 1960 a 2017: Uma análise ecológica

2019 ◽  
Vol 27 ◽  
pp. 146
Author(s):  
Leanete Thomas Dotta ◽  
Amélia Lopes ◽  
Carlinda Leite
Keyword(s):  
Higher Education ◽  
Social Dimension ◽  
Ecological Perspective ◽  
Economic Sector ◽  
Access To Higher Education ◽  
Level Of Education ◽  
The Social ◽  
The One ◽  
Access Policies ◽  
Over Time

Globally, the expansion of investments in the field of higher education, which stems from both the demands of the economic sector and the growing appreciation of the social dimension of knowledge, implies mobilization within the scope of access to this level of education. If, on the one hand, access policies play a central role, on the other hand, the interactions of individuals in the different environments of which they are part cannot be disregarded. The aim of this paper, from a socio-ecological perspective, was to analyse the movements of access to higher education in Portugal from 1960 to 2017. The interpretation of data on access and legislation on higher education in that period, in relation to the literature review outcomes, made it possible to identify moments of expansion and retraction of access to higher education in Portugal. It was at the confluence of a set of more or less favorable factors that the distinct movements of access originated over time. This confluence of factors led individuals to shape and reshape their aspirations concerning their entry to higher education. 

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