An explainable prediction framework for engineering problems: case studies in reinforced concrete members modeling

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Amirhessam Tahmassebi ◽  
Mehrtash Motamedi ◽  
Amir H. Alavi ◽  
Amir H. Gandomi
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Case Studies ◽  
Failure Modes ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Deep Understanding ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Engineering Problems ◽  
Machine Learning Models

PurposeEngineering design and operational decisions depend largely on deep understanding of applications that requires assumptions for simplification of the problems in order to find proper solutions. Cutting-edge machine learning algorithms can be used as one of the emerging tools to simplify this process. In this paper, we propose a novel scalable and interpretable machine learning framework to automate this process and fill the current gap.Design/methodology/approachThe essential principles of the proposed pipeline are mainly (1) scalability, (2) interpretibility and (3) robust probabilistic performance across engineering problems. The lack of interpretibility of complex machine learning models prevents their use in various problems including engineering computation assessments. Many consumers of machine learning models would not trust the results if they cannot understand the method. Thus, the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) approach is employed to interpret the developed machine learning models.FindingsThe proposed framework can be applied to a variety of engineering problems including seismic damage assessment of structures. The performance of the proposed framework is investigated using two case studies of failure identification in reinforcement concrete (RC) columns and shear walls. In addition, the reproducibility, reliability and generalizability of the results were validated and the results of the framework were compared to the benchmark studies. The results of the proposed framework outperformed the benchmark results with high statistical significance.Originality/valueAlthough, the current study reveals that the geometric input features and reinforcement indices are the most important variables in failure modes detection, better model can be achieved with employing more robust strategies to establish proper database to decrease the errors in some of the failure modes identification.

Prediction of aircraft estimated time of arrival using machine learning methods

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
O. Basturk ◽  
C. Cetek
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Web Application ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Time Of Arrival ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Trajectory Data ◽  
Different Sources ◽  
Machine Learning Models

ABSTRACT In this study, prediction of aircraft Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA) is proposed using machine learning algorithms. Accurate prediction of ETA is important for management of delay and air traffic flow, runway assignment, gate assignment, collaborative decision making (CDM), coordination of ground personnel and equipment, and optimisation of arrival sequence etc. Machine learning is able to learn from experience and make predictions with weak assumptions or no assumptions at all. In the proposed approach, general flight information, trajectory data and weather data were obtained from different sources in various formats. Raw data were converted to tidy data and inserted into a relational database. To obtain the features for training the machine learning models, the data were explored, cleaned and transformed into convenient features. New features were also derived from the available data. Random forests and deep neural networks were used to train the machine learning models. Both models can predict the ETA with a mean absolute error (MAE) less than 6min after departure, and less than 3min after terminal manoeuvring area (TMA) entrance. Additionally, a web application was developed to dynamically predict the ETA using proposed models.

scholarly journals Characterizing and Evaluating the Zoonotic Potential of Novel Viruses Discovered in Vampire Bats

Viruses ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 252
Author(s):  
Laura M. Bergner ◽  
Nardus Mollentze ◽  
Richard J. Orton ◽  
Carlos Tello ◽  
Alice Broos ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Phylogenetic Analyses ◽  
Human Infection ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Zoonotic Potential ◽  
Metagenomic Sequencing ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Sequencing Data ◽  
Vampire Bats ◽  
Machine Learning Models

The contemporary surge in metagenomic sequencing has transformed knowledge of viral diversity in wildlife. However, evaluating which newly discovered viruses pose sufficient risk of infecting humans to merit detailed laboratory characterization and surveillance remains largely speculative. Machine learning algorithms have been developed to address this imbalance by ranking the relative likelihood of human infection based on viral genome sequences, but are not yet routinely applied to viruses at the time of their discovery. Here, we characterized viral genomes detected through metagenomic sequencing of feces and saliva from common vampire bats (Desmodus rotundus) and used these data as a case study in evaluating zoonotic potential using molecular sequencing data. Of 58 detected viral families, including 17 which infect mammals, the only known zoonosis detected was rabies virus; however, additional genomes were detected from the families Hepeviridae, Coronaviridae, Reoviridae, Astroviridae and Picornaviridae, all of which contain human-infecting species. In phylogenetic analyses, novel vampire bat viruses most frequently grouped with other bat viruses that are not currently known to infect humans. In agreement, machine learning models built from only phylogenetic information ranked all novel viruses similarly, yielding little insight into zoonotic potential. In contrast, genome composition-based machine learning models estimated different levels of zoonotic potential, even for closely related viruses, categorizing one out of four detected hepeviruses and two out of three picornaviruses as having high priority for further research. We highlight the value of evaluating zoonotic potential beyond ad hoc consideration of phylogeny and provide surveillance recommendations for novel viruses in a wildlife host which has frequent contact with humans and domestic animals.

Model Comparison for Esp Run-Life Prediction: Classic Statistics Vs. Machine Learning

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alejandro Celemín ◽  
Diego A. Estupiñan ◽  
Ricardo Nieto
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Model Comparison ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Slight Reduction ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Validation Data ◽  
Operational Conditions ◽  
Machine Learning Models

Abstract Electrical Submersible Pumps reliability and run-life analysis has been extensively studied since its development. Current machine learning algorithms allow to correlate operational conditions to ESP run-life in order to generate predictions for active and new wells. Four machine learning models are compared to a linear proportional hazards model, used as a baseline for comparison purposes. Proper accuracy metrics for survival analysis problems are calculated on run-life predictions vs. actual values over training and validation data subsets. Results demonstrate that the baseline model is able to produce more consistent predictions with a slight reduction in its accuracy, compared to current machine learning models for small datasets. This study demonstrates that the quality of the date and it pre-processing supports the current shift from model-centric to data-centric approach to machine and deep learning problems.

Machine Learning Models for Finger Bend Evaluation using Implemented Low cost Flex Sensor

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (VI) ◽  
pp. 3605-3611
Author(s):  
Pratyush Kaware
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Support Vector Machine ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Learning Algorithms ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Machine Learning Models

In this paper a cost-effective sensor has been implemented to read finger bend signals, by attaching the sensor to a finger, so as to classify them based on the degree of bent as well as the joint about which the finger was being bent. This was done by testing with various machine learning algorithms to get the most accurate and consistent classifier. Finally, we found that Support Vector Machine was the best algorithm suited to classify our data, using we were able predict live state of a finger, i.e., the degree of bent and the joints involved. The live voltage values from the sensor were transmitted using a NodeMCU micro-controller which were converted to digital and uploaded on a database for analysis.

scholarly journals Comparison of the Performance of Machine Learning Algorithms in Predicting Heart Disease

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 99
Author(s):  
Sajad Yousefi
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Heart Disease ◽  
Decision Tree ◽  
Roc Curve ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Supervised Machine Learning ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Algorithm Performance ◽  
Machine Learning Models

Introduction: Heart disease is often associated with conditions such as clogged arteries due to the sediment accumulation which causes chest pain and heart attack. Many people die due to the heart disease annually. Most countries have a shortage of cardiovascular specialists and thus, a significant percentage of misdiagnosis occurs. Hence, predicting this disease is a serious issue. Using machine learning models performed on multidimensional dataset, this article aims to find the most efficient and accurate machine learning models for disease prediction.Material and Methods: Several algorithms were utilized to predict heart disease among which Decision Tree, Random Forest and KNN supervised machine learning are highly mentioned. The algorithms are applied to the dataset taken from the UCI repository including 294 samples. The dataset includes heart disease features. To enhance the algorithm performance, these features are analyzed, the feature importance scores and cross validation are considered.Results: The algorithm performance is compared with each other, so that performance based on ROC curve and some criteria such as accuracy, precision, sensitivity and F1 score were evaluated for each model. As a result of evaluation, Accuracy, AUC ROC are 83% and 99% respectively for Decision Tree algorithm. Logistic Regression algorithm with accuracy and AUC ROC are 88% and 91% respectively has better performance than other algorithms. Therefore, these techniques can be useful for physicians to predict heart disease patients and prescribe them correctly.Conclusion: Machine learning technique can be used in medicine for analyzing the related data collections to a disease and its prediction. The area under the ROC curve and evaluating criteria related to a number of classifying algorithms of machine learning to evaluate heart disease and indeed, the prediction of heart disease is compared to determine the most appropriate classification. As a result of evaluation, better performance was observed in both Decision Tree and Logistic Regression models.

scholarly journals Tissue-guided LASSO for prediction of clinical drug response using preclinical samples

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edward W Huang ◽  
Ameya Bhope ◽  
Jing Lim ◽  
Saurabh Sinha ◽  
Amin Emad
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Drug Response ◽  
Drug Sensitivity ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Large Databases ◽  
Tissue Of Origin ◽  
Molecular Profiles ◽  
Clinical Drug ◽  
Machine Learning Models

ABSTRACTPrediction of clinical drug response (CDR) of cancer patients, based on their clinical and molecular profiles obtained prior to administration of the drug, can play a significant role in individualized medicine. Machine learning models have the potential to address this issue, but training them requires data from a large number of patients treated with each drug, limiting their feasibility. While large databases of drug response and molecular profiles of preclinical in-vitro cancer cell lines (CCLs) exist for many drugs, it is unclear whether preclinical samples can be used to predict CDR of real patients.We designed a systematic approach to evaluate how well different algorithms, trained on gene expression and drug response of CCLs, can predict CDR of patients. Using data from two large databases, we evaluated various linear and non-linear algorithms, some of which utilized information on gene interactions. Then, we developed a new algorithm called TG-LASSO that explicitly integrates information on samples’ tissue of origin with gene expression profiles to improve prediction performance. Our results showed that regularized regression methods provide significantly accurate prediction. However, including the network information or common methods of including information on the tissue of origin did not improve the results. On the other hand, TG-LASSO improved the predictions and distinguished resistant and sensitive patients for 7 out of 13 drugs. Additionally, TG-LASSO identified genes associated with the drug response, including known targets and pathways involved in the drugs’ mechanism of action. Moreover, genes identified by TG-LASSO for multiple drugs in a tissue were associated with patient survival. In summary, our analysis suggests that preclinical samples can be used to predict CDR of patients and identify biomarkers of drug sensitivity and survival.AUTHOR SUMMARYCancer is among the leading causes of death globally and perdition of the drug response of patients to different treatments based on their clinical and molecular profiles can enable individualized cancer medicine. Machine learning algorithms have the potential to play a significant role in this task; but, these algorithms are designed based the premise that a large number of labeled training samples are available, and these samples are accurate representation of the profiles of real tumors. However, due to ethical and technical reasons, it is not possible to screen humans for many drugs, significantly limiting the size of training data. To overcome this data scarcity problem, machine learning models can be trained using large databases of preclinical samples (e.g. cancer cell line cultures). However, due to the major differences between preclinical samples and real tumors, it is unclear how accurately such preclinical-to-clinical computational models can predict the clinical drug response of cancer patients.Here, first we systematically evaluate a variety of different linear and nonlinear machine learning algorithms for this particular task using two large databases of preclinical (GDSC) and tumor samples (TCGA). Then, we present a novel method called TG-LASSO that utilizes a new approach for explicitly incorporating the tissue of origin of samples in the prediction task. Our results show that TG-LASSO outperforms all other algorithms and can accurately distinguish resistant and sensitive patients for the majority of the tested drugs. Follow-up analysis reveal that this method can also identify biomarkers of drug sensitivity in each cancer type.

A dependency-based machine learning approach to the identification of research topics: a case in COVID-19 studies

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Haoran Zhu ◽  
Lei Lei
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Noun Phrases ◽  
New Method ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Linguistic Features ◽  
Research Topics ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Research Areas ◽  
Information Retrieval Methods ◽  
Machine Learning Models

PurposePrevious research concerning automatic extraction of research topics mostly used rule-based or topic modeling methods, which were challenged due to the limited rules, the interpretability issue and the heavy dependence on human judgment. This study aims to address these issues with the proposal of a new method that integrates machine learning models with linguistic features for the identification of research topics.Design/methodology/approachFirst, dependency relations were used to extract noun phrases from research article texts. Second, the extracted noun phrases were classified into topics and non-topics via machine learning models and linguistic and bibliometric features. Lastly, a trend analysis was performed to identify hot research topics, i.e. topics with increasing popularity.FindingsThe new method was experimented on a large dataset of COVID-19 research articles and achieved satisfactory results in terms of f-measures, accuracy and AUC values. Hot topics of COVID-19 research were also detected based on the classification results.Originality/valueThis study demonstrates that information retrieval methods can help researchers gain a better understanding of the latest trends in both COVID-19 and other research areas. The findings are significant to both researchers and policymakers.

Recent Progress in Quantum Machine Learning

2021 ◽  
pp. 232-256
Author(s):  
Amandeep Singh Bhatia ◽  
Renata Wong
Keyword(s):  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
Machine Learning ◽  
Quantum Computing ◽  
Recent Progress ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Exciting Field ◽  
Quantum Machine Learning ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Machine Learning Models

Quantum computing is a new exciting field which can be exploited to great speed and innovation in machine learning and artificial intelligence. Quantum machine learning at crossroads explores the interaction between quantum computing and machine learning, supplementing each other to create models and also to accelerate existing machine learning models predicting better and accurate classifications. The main purpose is to explore methods, concepts, theories, and algorithms that focus and utilize quantum computing features such as superposition and entanglement to enhance the abilities of machine learning computations enormously faster. It is a natural goal to study the present and future quantum technologies with machine learning that can enhance the existing classical algorithms. The objective of this chapter is to facilitate the reader to grasp the key components involved in the field to be able to understand the essentialities of the subject and thus can compare computations of quantum computing with its counterpart classical machine learning algorithms.

Chapter 15. Human-Centered Concept Explanations for Neural Networks

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chih-Kuan Yeh ◽  
Been Kim ◽  
Pradeep Ravikumar
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Case Studies ◽  
Real World ◽  
Deep Neural Networks ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Real World Applications ◽  
The Right ◽  
Concept Activation ◽  
Machine Learning Models

Understanding complex machine learning models such as deep neural networks with explanations is crucial in various applications. Many explanations stem from the model perspective, and may not necessarily effectively communicate why the model is making its predictions at the right level of abstraction. For example, providing importance weights to individual pixels in an image can only express which parts of that particular image is important to the model, but humans may prefer an explanation which explains the prediction by concept-based thinking. In this work, we review the emerging area of concept based explanations. We start by introducing concept explanations including the class of Concept Activation Vectors (CAV) which characterize concepts using vectors in appropriate spaces of neural activations, and discuss different properties of useful concepts, and approaches to measure the usefulness of concept vectors. We then discuss approaches to automatically extract concepts, and approaches to address some of their caveats. Finally, we discuss some case studies that showcase the utility of such concept-based explanations in synthetic settings and real world applications.

scholarly journals Online learning behavior analysis based on machine learning

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 97-106
Author(s):  
Ning Yan ◽  
Oliver Tat-Sheung Au
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Online Learning ◽  
Correlation Analysis ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Classification Models ◽  
Limited Data ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Learning Behavior ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Machine Learning Models

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to make a correlation analysis between students’ online learning behavior features and course grade, and to attempt to build some effective prediction model based on limited data. Design/methodology/approach The prediction label in this paper is the course grade of students, and the eigenvalues available are student age, student gender, connection time, hits count and days of access. The machine learning model used in this paper is the classical three-layer feedforward neural networks, and the scaled conjugate gradient algorithm is adopted. Pearson correlation analysis method is used to find the relationships between course grade and the student eigenvalues. Findings Days of access has the highest correlation with course grade, followed by hits count, and connection time is less relevant to students’ course grade. Student age and gender have the lowest correlation with course grade. Binary classification models have much higher prediction accuracy than multi-class classification models. Data normalization and data discretization can effectively improve the prediction accuracy of machine learning models, such as ANN model in this paper. Originality/value This paper may help teachers to find some clue to identify students with learning difficulties in advance and give timely help through the online learning behavior data. It shows that acceptable prediction models based on machine learning can be built using a small and limited data set. However, introducing external data into machine learning models to improve its prediction accuracy is still a valuable and hard issue.

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