Exchange rate appreciation, trade competition and technology transaction: evidence from China

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dingping Cheng ◽  
Sumei Gan
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Independent Innovation ◽  
Domestic Technology ◽  
Rmb Appreciation ◽  
Technology Market ◽  
Export Competition ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Foreign Enterprises ◽  
Trade Competition

PurposeThe purpose of this study is mainly to investigate the stimulating effect on technology transactions of trade competition resultant from RMB appreciation.Design/methodology/approachThis study uses Chinese provincial panel data from 1998 to 2015 and utilizes GMM method to estimate the stimulating effect of RMB appreciation on technical transactions through trade competition.FindingsThe results demonstrate that RMB appreciation can encourage enterprises to make use of domestic technology market resources for innovation. Specifically, the increase in imports due to the appreciation of RMB can generate technology spill-over and significantly promote technology trade. The export competition resultant from RMB appreciation can also encourage domestic and foreign enterprises to enhance export competitiveness through increased technology transactions.Originality/valueThe current research investigates the impact of exchange rate on independent innovation, but this study demonstrates the influence of exchange rate on technology transactions. In addition, the data in this study cover 1998–2015 in China and thus contributes to determining the effects of exchange rate appreciation in emerging countries.

Macroeconomic fundamentals and dynamics of the Indian rupee-dollar exchange rate

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 301-326 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chandan Sharma ◽  
Rajat Setia
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Dollar Exchange Rate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Indian Rupee ◽  
Macroeconomic Fundamentals ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – This paper aims to examine the relationship between Indian rupee-US dollar exchange rate and the macroeconomic fundamentals for the post-economic reform period. Design/methodology/approach – The authors have used an empirical model which includes a range of important macroeconomic variables based on the basic monetary theories of exchange rate determination. At the first stage of the analysis, they have tested structural break in the data. Subsequently, they have employed the fully modified ordinary least square, Wald’s coefficient restriction and impulse response functions (IRF) to estimate the monetary model in the long- and short-run horizons. Findings – Results of analyses indicate that the macroeconomic fundamentals determine exchange rate in a significant way, but their effect varies sizably across the periods. The IRF illustrate the importance of interest rate in controlling exchange rate volatility. Practical implications – The analysis of the behavior of inter-relationship among macroeconomic variables will help policymakers in a deep-rooted understanding of this complex and time-varying relationship. Originality/value – Most of the existing studies have tested the impact of a single or a few macroeconomic fundamentals on exchange rate. But in the present study, we have tested the impact of a range of important variables, i.e. money supply, real income or output, price level and trade balance. Further, considering the importance of structural breaks in data, they authors have employed standard tests of structural break and incorporated the issue in the cointegration analysis.

scholarly journals Exchange rate pass-through to inflation in Egypt: a structural VAR approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 2-19 ◽  
Author(s):  
Omneia Helmy ◽  
Mona Fayed ◽  
Kholoud Hussien
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Structural Var ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Shocks ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
Exchange Rate Pass Through ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The theoretical and empirical literature stipulated that exchange rate shocks do influence the domestic price of imports. Hence, this paper aims to investigate the underlying relationship between the exchange rate and prices known as the exchange rate pass-through. Design/methodology/approach The paper uses a structural vector auto-regression (SVAR) model, drawing on Bernanke (1986) and Sims (1986), to empirically examine and analyze the pass-through of exchange rate fluctuations to domestic prices in Egypt. Findings The empirical results of the monthly data between 2003 and 2015 revealed that the exchange rate pass-through in Egypt is fairly substantial but incomplete and slow in the three price indices [IMP, producer price index and consumer price index (CPI)]. However, the impact is more prominent for consumer prices than for any other price index. This finding could be attributed to the fact that the CPI in Egypt is composed of a relatively large number of subsidized commodities and goods with administered prices as well as the authorities’ behavior in manipulating prices (i.e. export ban). This is expected to weaken the transmission of exchange rate shocks. Practical implications The result has interesting implications for Egypt’s ability to attain an effective inflation targeting regime. Originality/value The study contributes to the literature by assessing the effect of changes in the exchange rate (the Egyptian £ vis-à-vis the US$) on prices using an updated time series from 2003 to 2015. It addresses the limitations of the study of Nafie et al. (2004), which found no strong relationship between the exchange rate and inflation rate in the Egyptian context. One of these limitations was using the CPI, as the only price index.

Economic complexity and price competitiveness dependence: empirical evidence using panel models

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Guilherme Magacho ◽  
Rafael Ribeiro ◽  
Igor Rocha
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
The Other ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Price Competitiveness ◽  
Economic Complexity ◽  
Other Hand ◽  
The Impact

Purpose As economies with high economic complexity and productive capabilities may easily adapt their productive structure due to product differentiation and innovation, the central variable of competitiveness for these countries is the product quality, not price. On the other hand, the price can be an important determinant of less complex countries, and hence, real exchange rate (RER) misalignments may have long-term impacts. This paper aims to empirically assess variations in the magnitude of the impact in RER misalignments on output growth subject to countries’ economic complexity. Design/methodology/approach The estimation technique used is the generalized method of moments-System estimator as this method is robust to reverse causality. Heterogeneous regressions using interaction models are undertaken to analyze to what extend promoting economic complexity can reduce price competitiveness dependence and allow countries to grow faster without relying on cost competitiveness. Findings Estimates show that economic complexity (which measures technological and productive capabilities) determines cross-country differences regarding the effects of RER misalignments on countries’ long-term growth rates. The results suggest that exchange rate devaluations may not be effective for countries at the top end of the technological ladder while an overvalued RER may damage the long-term growth rate of countries with low levels of economic complexity. Originality/value This paper contributes to the literature by empirically investigating the impact of RER misalignments in countries with distinct technological and productive capabilities based on the recent developments of countries’ economic complexity analysis. It investigates whether more diversified and complex economies are less sensitive to RER misalignments as they can adapt their production, undertake other tasks, create new products and increase the quality of products they produce. Less complex economies, on the other hand, are less capable of innovating because it demands productive capabilities they do not have, and hence, they are more dependent on their current export basket.

scholarly journals Monetary spillovers and real exchange rate misalignments in emerging markets

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Krittika Banerjee ◽  
Ashima Goyal
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Portfolio Flows ◽  
The Us ◽  
Common Correlated Effects ◽  
Monetary Neutrality ◽  
The Impact

PurposeAfter the adoption of unconventional monetary policies (UMPs) in advanced economies (AEs) there were many studies of monetary spillovers to asset prices in emerging market economies (EMEs) but the extent of contribution of EMEs and AEs, respectively, in real exchange rate (RER) misalignments has not been addressed. This paper addresses the gap in a cross-country panel set-up with country specific controls.Design/methodology/approachFixed effects, pooled mean group (Pesaran et al., 1999) and common correlated effects (Pesaran, 2006) estimations are used to examine the relationship. Multiway clustering is taken into account to ensure robust statistical inferences.FindingsRobust evidence is found for significant monetary spillovers over 1998–2017 in the form of RER overvaluation of EMEs against AEs, especially through the portfolio rebalancing channel. EME RER against the US saw significantly more overvaluation in UMP years indicating greater role of the US in monetary spillovers. However, in the long-run monetary neutrality holds. EMEs did pursue mercantilist and precautionary policies that undervalued their RERs. Precautionary undervaluation is more evident with bilateral EME US RER.Research limitations/implicationsIt may be useful for large EMEs to monitor the impact of foreign portfolio flows on short-run deviations in RER. Export diversification reduces EME mercantilist motives against the US. That AE monetary policy significantly appreciates EME RER has implications for future policy cooperation between EMEs and AEs.Originality/valueTo the best of the author's knowledge such a comparative analysis between AE and EME policy variables on RER misalignment has not been done previously.

Understanding the exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices in Vietnam: the SVAR approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (5) ◽  
pp. 971-989 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anh The Vo ◽  
Chi Minh Ho ◽  
Duc Hong Vo
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Economic Integration ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Global Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Consumer Prices ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
Exchange Rate Pass Through ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the degree of the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to the consumer price index (CPI) at both aggregated and disaggregated levels in Vietnam. Updated data of the nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) and bilateral exchange rate (BiER) have been utilized in this study for the comparison purposes. Design/methodology/approach Advanced time-series approaches such as a structural vector autoregressive framework, structural impulse response functions (SIRFs), and structural forecast-error variance decomposition (SFEVD) are utilized in this paper. Findings Empirical findings from this paper present an incomplete degree of the ERPT to the aggregated CPI. The ERPT based on the BiER is observed to have substantially larger magnitude than the NEER-based pass-through. For the disaggregated level, the degree of the ERPT varies considerably across sub-components of the CPI, with a higher magnitude of the ERPT elasticity being found from the BiER estimations. The index of housing and construction materials has the largest ERPT based on the BiER, followed by the food and foodstuffs (1.00 and 0.56, respectively). The macroeconomic and financial environments as well as an economic integration into the global market may be the main causes of a higher ERPT in Vietnam in comparison with other ASEAN countries. Research limitations/implications The significant and incomplete pass-through of the exchange rate in Vietnam can affect firms’ and households’ budget planning, savings and profits. This finding generally implies that the cost of devaluation of the domestic currency affects the society as the whole in terms of welfare. The State Bank of Vietnam should carefully consider the overall effect of welfares when formulating and implementing strategies of currency devaluation. In addition, the Vietnamese economy becomes more sensitive to external vulnerabilities via changes of the exchange rate during an increasingly economic integration into the global market. In order to maintain inflation stability, it is vitally important to reduce the impact of exchange rate movements on the domestic prices, both aggregated and disaggregated levels, by pursuing either monetary policy credibility or inflation targeting. Originality/value Previous studies on the ERPT literature in the Asia region or for emerging countries focus mainly on the aggregated data of the CPI. Previous studies were conducted before the global financial crisis in 2008/2009. The current paper is the first of its kind to examine the pass-through from exchange rates to consumer prices in Vietnam using both aggregated and disaggregated data.

A hybrid approach to exchange rates

2016 ◽  
Vol 33 (1) ◽  
pp. 50-68 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guangfeng Zhang ◽  
Ian Marsh ◽  
Ronald MacDonald
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Private Information ◽  
Hybrid Approach ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macro News ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Exchange Rates Volatility

Purpose – This study aims to investigate the impact of information, both public macro news and private information, on exchange rate volatility in an integrated framework. Design/methodology/approach – The authors apply real-time data of macro announcements and high-frequency trading data (German Deutsche Mark to US dollar, DEM/USD, from 1 May to 31August 1996) to GARCH models and examine various model specifications. Findings – Data analysis demonstrates real-time macro news and market makers’ private information both have a significant impact on exchange rate volatility, but there is no interaction between macro and micro information in the information transmission process. Originality/value – This study contributes to empirical hybrid studies of examining exchange rates volatility, which is in line with literature that combine both macro and micro fundamentals in examining exchange rates variation. Particularly, a key element of this study is to use a microstructure fundamental variable, namely, order flow, to capture private information in an exchange rate volatility study.

scholarly journals Impacts of inflation on gold price and exchange rate in Vietnam: time-varying vs fixed coefficient cointegrations

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Pham Dinh Long ◽  
Bui Quang Hien ◽  
Pham Thi Bich Ngoc
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Gold Price ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Coefficient Estimates ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Exchange Rate Fluctuations ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Shed Light

PurposeThe paper aims to shed light on the effects of inflation on gold price and exchange rate in Vietnam by using time-varying cointegration.Design/methodology/approachUsing cointegration techniques with fixed coefficient and time-varying coefficient, the study exams the impacts of inflation in models and compares the results through coefficient estimates.FindingsA significant inflation impacts are found with the time-varying cointegration but not with the fixed coefficient cointegration models. Moreover, monetary policy affects exchange rate not only directly via its instruments as money supply and interest rate but indirectly via inflation. Also, interest rate is one of the determinants of gold price.Originality/valueTo the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first to use time-varying cointegration to analyze the impact of inflation on the gold price and exchange rate in Vietnam. Gold price and exchange rate fluctuations are always the essential and striking issues, which have been emphasized by economists and policymakers. In macroeconometric researches, cointegration models are often used to analyze the long-term relations between variables. Attentionally, applied models show a limitation when estimating coefficients are fixed. This characteristic might not really match with the data properties and the variation of the economy. Currently, time-varying cointegration models are emerging method to solve the above issue.

scholarly journals Assessing the influence of exchange rate on agricultural commodity export price: evidence from Vietnamese coffee

2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 297-309
Author(s):  
Trung Tuyen Dang ◽  
Caihong Zhang ◽  
Thi Hong Nguyen ◽  
Ngoc Trung Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Export Price ◽  
Agricultural Commodity ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Commodity Export ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to evaluate the influence of VND/USD exchange rate on Vietnamese coffee export price (PVN).Design/methodology/approachThe study uses cointegration test, Granger causality test and vector autoregression (VAR) model.FindingsThe results reveal that there is no co-integrating equation between two variables. It means the exchange rate does not have an effect on PVN in the long run. Furthermore, there is one Granger causality relationship between VND/USD exchange rate and PVN in the short run, but not vice versa. The study suggests that the first previous period of PVN is the most closely related variable which has the greatest impact on the variation of PVN among the selected variables, meanwhile the effect of VND/USD exchange rate on it, contrarily, is positive and very trivial.Originality/valueIn overall, the impact of VND/USD exchange rate on Vietnamese coffee export price (PVN) has been analyzed deeply in this research by applying new approaches.

Global financial economic crisis transmission on the transition economy

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-22
Author(s):  
Nargiza Alymkulova ◽  
Junus Ganiev
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Transition Economy ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Financial Economic ◽  
Kyrgyz Republic ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The global financial crisis hit the economy of the Kyrgyz Republic by the third wave of its transmission in early 2009. The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of the global financial economic crisis on the transition economy of the Kyrgyz Republic. As there is a low level of the Kyrgyz Republic’s integration into the global financial and economic processes, it is obvious that channels of transmissions are different. Design/methodology/approach The empirical model is the vector autoregression approach. The quarterly data from 2005 to 2013 of the remittances from abroad, trade volumes, exchange rates, credits, deposits and liquidity of the banking system, gross domestic product (GDP) and foreign direct investment (FDI) were used in the empirical analysis. Findings The authors found a significant positive relation between transmission channels such as remittances flow, banking sector, international trade and GDP within the first six months. Thus, a decline in the aforementioned variables has a significant affirmative effect on the country’s GDP. Notwithstanding, the exchange-rate channel adversely influences GDP. Thereby, the depreciation of the national currency leads to an increase in GDP. Originality/value The study findings allow the Kyrgyz policymakers to foresee the global crisis transmission through the primary channels of transmission mechanism. Nevertheless, a decrease of the deposit level by 1 per cent leads to 2.91 per cent decline in FDI inflows. On the contrary, an increase of the exchange rate by 1 per cent leads to 1.54 per cent decrease in imports.

Exchange rate volatility and exports: a panel data analysis

2016 ◽  
Vol 43 (2) ◽  
pp. 203-221 ◽  
Author(s):  
Flavio Vilela Vieira ◽  
Ronald MacDonald
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Financial Crisis ◽  
Export Volume ◽  
Oil Export ◽  
Financial Crisis Of 2008 ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate the role of real effective exchange rate (REER) volatility on export volume and also to address the impact of the international financial crisis of 2008. Design/methodology/approach – The empirical methodology is based on System GMM estimation for a set of 106 countries for the period of 2000-2011. Findings – For the complete sample of countries and for a set of developing/emerging economies, there is evidence that an increase (decrease) in REER volatility reduces (increases) export volume. The results are not robust once the oil export countries are removed from the sample. The estimated coefficients for the financial crisis dummy are positive and statistically significant, indicating that export volume were 0.14 percent higher after the financial crisis of 2008 compared to the previous period (2000-2007). There is also evidence that the export volume is price (REER) and income (trade weighted) inelastic. Research limitations/implications – The empirical results are valid for the complete set of countries and for developing and emerging economies when including the oil export countries, suggesting that countries should reduce exchange rate volatility in order to foster their export volume and that oil export countries have an important role on these results. Practical implications – The paper suggests that policymakers should adopt different policies to minimize exchange rate volatility if they seek to increase export volume. The international financial crisis had a significant impact on export volume in all estimated models regardless of the set of countries used. Originality/value – One of the main novelties of this work is that it deals with possible endogeneity using GMM estimators and addresses the issue of instrument proliferation, which is not a common feature of previous empirical studies on exchange rate volatility and trade flows. Another original aspect of the research is the construction of trade weighted variables for foreign income and REER based on the major 20 export partners for each country used in the panel data estimation. The work also incorporates the years following the international financial crisis of 2008, which is an additional empirical novelty, in order to address the impact of the international financial crisis on the export volume.

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