scholarly journals Testing the convergence and the divergence in five Asian countries: from a GMM model to a new Machine Learning algorithm

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Cosimo Magazzino ◽  
Marco Mele ◽  
Nicolas Schneider

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to empirically test the economic convergence that operate between five selected Asian countries (namely Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, the Philippines and Indonesia). In particular, it seeks to investigate how increased economic integration has impacted the inter-country income levels among the five founding members of ASEAN.Design/methodology/approachA new Machine Learning (ML) approach is applied along with a panel data analysis (GMM), and the application of KOF Globalization Index.FindingsThe Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) results highlight that the endogenous growth theory seems to be supported for the selected Asian countries, indicating evidence of diverging forces resulting from unequal growth and polarization dynamics. Overcoming the technical issues raised by the econometric approach, the new ML algorithm brings contrasted but interesting results. Using the KOF Globalization Index, the authors confirm how the last phase of globalization set the conditions for an economic convergence among sample members.Originality/valueUsing the KOF Globalization Index, the authors confirm how the last phase of globalization set the conditions for an economic convergence among sample members. As a matter of fact, the new LSTM algorithm has provided consistent evidence supporting the existence of converging forces. In fact, the results highlighted the effectiveness of the experiments and the algorithm we chose. The high predictability of the authors’ model and the absence of self-alignment in the values showed a convergence be-tween the economies.

2015 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 2-19 ◽  
Author(s):  
Apedzan Emmanuel Kighir ◽  
Normah Haji Omar ◽  
Norhayati Mohamed

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the debate and find out the impact of cash flow on changes in dividend payout decisions among non-financial firms quoted at Bursa Malaysia as compared to earnings. There has been renewed debate in recent finance and accounting literature concerning the key determinants of changes in dividends payout policy decisions in some jurisdictions. The conclusion in some is that firms base their dividend decisions on cash flows rather than published earnings. Design/methodology/approach – The research made use of panel data from 1999 to 2012 at Bursa Malaysia, using generalized method of moments as the main method of analysis. Findings – The research finds that Malaysia non-financial firms consider current earnings more important than current cash flow while making dividends payout decisions, and prior year cash flows are considered more important in dividends decisions than prior year earnings. We also found support for Jensen (1986) in Malaysia on agency theory, that managers of firms pay dividends from free cash flow to reduce agency conflicts. Practical implications – The research concludes that Malaysian non-financial firms use current earnings and less of current cash flow in making changes in dividends policy. The policy implication is that current earnings are dividends smoothing agents, and the more they are considered in dividends payout decisions, the less of dividends smoothing. Social implications – If dividends smoothing is encouraged, it could lead to dividends-based earnings management. Originality/value – The research is our novel contribution of assisting investors and government in making informed decisions regarding dividends policy in Malaysia.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Pattanaporn Chatjuthamard ◽  
Pornsit Jiraporn ◽  
Sang Mook Lee ◽  
Ali Uyar ◽  
Merve Kilic

Purpose Theory suggests that the market for corporate control, which constitutes an important external governance mechanism, may substitute for internal governance. Consistent with this notion, using a novel measure of takeover vulnerability primarily based on state legislation, this paper aims to investigate the effect of the takeover market on board characteristics with special emphasis on board gender diversity. Design/methodology/approach This paper exploits a novel measure of takeover vulnerability based on state legislation. This novel measure is likely exogenous as the legislation was imposed from outside the firm. By using an exogenous measure, the analysis is less vulnerable to endogeneity and is thus more likely to show a causal effect. Findings The results show that a more active takeover market leads to lower board gender diversity. Specifically, a rise in takeover vulnerability by one standard deviation results in a decline in board gender diversity by 10.01%. Moreover, stronger takeover market susceptibility also brings about larger board size and less board independence, corroborating the substitution effect. Additional analysis confirms the results, including propensity score matching, generalized method of moments dynamic panel data analysis and instrumental variable analysis. Originality/value The study is the first to explore the effect of the takeover market on board gender diversity. Unlike most of the previous research in this area, which suffers from endogeneity, this paper uses a novel measure of takeover vulnerability that is probably exogenous. The results are thus much more likely to demonstrate causality.


2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sandeepkumar Hegde ◽  
Monica R. Mundada

Purpose According to the World Health Organization, by 2025, the contribution of chronic disease is expected to rise by 73% compared to all deaths and it is considered as global burden of disease with a rate of 60%. These diseases persist for a longer duration of time, which are almost incurable and can only be controlled. Cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease (CKD) and diabetes mellitus are considered as three major chronic diseases that will increase the risk among the adults, as they get older. CKD is considered a major disease among all these chronic diseases, which will increase the risk among the adults as they get older. Overall 10% of the population of the world is affected by CKD and it is likely to double in the year 2030. The paper aims to propose novel feature selection approach in combination with the machine-learning algorithm which can early predict the chronic disease with utmost accuracy. Hence, a novel feature selection adaptive probabilistic divergence-based feature selection (APDFS) algorithm is proposed in combination with the hyper-parameterized logistic regression model (HLRM) for the early prediction of chronic disease. Design/methodology/approach A novel feature selection APDFS algorithm is proposed which explicitly handles the feature associated with the class label by relevance and redundancy analysis. The algorithm applies the statistical divergence-based information theory to identify the relationship between the distant features of the chronic disease data set. The data set required to experiment is obtained from several medical labs and hospitals in India. The HLRM is used as a machine-learning classifier. The predictive ability of the framework is compared with the various algorithm and also with the various chronic disease data set. The experimental result illustrates that the proposed framework is efficient and achieved competitive results compared to the existing work in most of the cases. Findings The performance of the proposed framework is validated by using the metric such as recall, precision, F1 measure and ROC. The predictive performance of the proposed framework is analyzed by passing the data set belongs to various chronic disease such as CKD, diabetes and heart disease. The diagnostic ability of the proposed approach is demonstrated by comparing its result with existing algorithms. The experimental figures illustrated that the proposed framework performed exceptionally well in prior prediction of CKD disease with an accuracy of 91.6. Originality/value The capability of the machine learning algorithms depends on feature selection (FS) algorithms in identifying the relevant traits from the data set, which impact the predictive result. It is considered as a process of choosing the relevant features from the data set by removing redundant and irrelevant features. Although there are many approaches that have been already proposed toward this objective, they are computationally complex because of the strategy of following a one-step scheme in selecting the features. In this paper, a novel feature selection APDFS algorithm is proposed which explicitly handles the feature associated with the class label by relevance and redundancy analysis. The proposed algorithm handles the process of feature selection in two separate indices. Hence, the computational complexity of the algorithm is reduced to O(nk+1). The algorithm applies the statistical divergence-based information theory to identify the relationship between the distant features of the chronic disease data set. The data set required to experiment is obtained from several medical labs and hospitals of karkala taluk ,India. The HLRM is used as a machine learning classifier. The predictive ability of the framework is compared with the various algorithm and also with the various chronic disease data set. The experimental result illustrates that the proposed framework is efficient and achieved competitive results are compared to the existing work in most of the cases.


Subject The South China Sea dispute. Significance China and the United States increased their military activities in the South China Sea in January and February, with US ‘freedom of navigation operations’ (FONOPs) pushing back on Chinese maritime jurisdictional claims in the area. The Philippines before June 2016 contested China’s expansive claims. Increased rivalry between Beijing and Washington in South-east Asia raises the risk of a dangerous naval confrontation. Impacts The Philippines will continue to solicit investment from China. China is unlikely to undertake actions in the South China Sea that would seriously irk the Philippines. South-east Asian countries will emphasise the importance of the region not becoming a theatre for China-US rivalry.


2015 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 41-59 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ivica Petrikova

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to contribute to existing literature by examining whether development aid has any measurable impact on food security, whether the impact is conditioned on the quality of governance and whether it differs based on the type of aid provided. Design/methodology/approach – Panel-data analysis of 85 developing countries between 1994 and 2011, using generalized method of moments and two-stage least squares estimators. Findings – The paper finds that aid in general has a small positive impact on food security; that multilateral aid, grants and social and economic aid have a positive effect on food security in their own right, and that bilateral aid, loans and agricultural aid are more conditioned on the quality of governance that other aid. Research limitations/implications – The main limitations rest with the imperfect nature of cross-country data on food security and governance, which I have tried to overcome through a series of robustness tests. Practical implications – The findings suggest that aid, despite its many deficiencies, can play a positive role in strengthening food security. Furthermore, they indicate that concessional loans, bilateral aid and agricultural aid are likely to foster food security only in countries with better governance. Originality/value – The paper constitutes a novel contribution to existing literature because it is one of the first to use cross-country data to explore the impact of aid on food security and because it utilizes a relatively complex aid categorization, which allows its conclusions to be more nuanced.


2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yejin Lee ◽  
Dae-Young Kim

Purpose Using the decision tree model, this study aims to understand the online travelers booking behaviors on Expedia.com, by examining influential determinants of online hotel booking, especially for longer-stay travelers. The geographical distance is also considered in understanding the booking behaviors trisecting travel destinations (i.e. Americas, Europe and Asia). Design/methodology/approach The data were obtained from American Statistical Association DataFest and Expedia.com. Based on the US travelers who made hotel reservation on the website, the study used a machine learning algorithm, decision tree, to analyze the influential determinants on hotel booking considering the geographical distance between origin and destination. Findings The results of the findings demonstrate that the choice of package product is the prioritized determinant for longer-stay hotel guests. Several similarities and differences were found from the significant determinants of the decision tree, in accordance with the geographic distance among the Americas, Europe and Asia. Research limitations/implications This paper presents the extension to an existing machine learning environment, and especially to the decision tree model. The findings are anticipated to expand the understanding of online hotel booking and apprehend the influential determinants toward consumers’ decision-making process regarding the relationship between geographical distance and traveler’s hotel staying duration. Originality/value This research brings a meaningful understanding of the hospitality and tourism industry, especially to the realm of machine learning adapted to an online booking website. It provides a unique approach to comprehend and forecast consumer behavior with data mining.


Subject Development of South-east Asian coastguards and their geopolitical implications. Significance Senior coastguard officers from Australia, Japan, the Philippines and the United States will meet later this year to discuss cooperation and capacity-building -- and the assertive actions of China's coastguard in littoral waters. With external partners' support, South-east Asian states are developing their coastguards to fight crime and assert maritime territorial claims. Impacts Fishing activities will probably trigger spats between South-east Asian and China's coastguards. Gradually, inter-operability between South-east Asian coastguards will expand. Tokyo and Washington will use coastguards to deepen ties with South-east Asian countries. There could be frictions between Indonesia's and Malaysia's coastguards over waters around Ambalat.


2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 39-61 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amr Ahmed Moussa

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to empirically analyze and identify key factors affecting working capital behavior of companies listed on the Egyptian Stock Exchange. Design/methodology/approach Working capital requirement and cash conversion cycle were used to proxy working capital behavior. The study explored nine main factors widely discussed in previous research to explain working capital behavior: operating cash flow, growth opportunities, performance, firm value, age, size, leverage, economic conditions and industry type. The study employed a panel data analysis for 68 listed Egyptian industrial firms for the period 2000–2010. Different techniques of the generalized method of moments were used to test the validity of the research hypotheses. Findings The results show that working capital behavior is affected by various factors related to firm characteristics, economic conditions and industry type. Originality/value This study provides financial managers with a better understanding of the impact of different internal and macroeconomic factors on working capital behavior in an emerging market, such as Egypt’s.


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